Here is why a poll saying many Dems want Biden to drop out is to be COMPLETELY IGNORED.

[Deek1935]

#1: Those Dems who are in a snapshot poll saying Biden should drop out for a younger candidate would not now suddenly vote for Trump. In head to head matchups in the polls (for those who love polls), it is a tie race.

#2: Obviously opinions have been affected by the media onslaught on this and those turncoats shitting their pants and pushing the narrative based entirely on FALLACY and CONJECTURE.

#3: The average voter does not really understand how presidential elections actually work. It is an up or down vote on the performance of the incumbent while in office, and Biden is very strong on his record of accomplishment. It is about GOVERNING and other key structural factors. It is NOT about age, debates, polls, punditry, or donors. NONE of those are PREDICTIVE. There is ZERO evidence that Biden would lose on election day several months away, and ZERO evidence that Trump would win on election day several months away.

#4: Who would be the new "Super Candidate" guaranteed to win in a landslide? The average voter, and even these Congressional members, have no clue. None. There are TONS of different opinions. It would be BITTERLY CONTESTED sending the party into sheer chaos and deep division. People would come out of the woodwork screaming for this candidate or that candidate and this one or that one would be better. Voters would demand a say and would want a new contested primary.
There would be litigation. There would be ballot access issues. There would be HUGE challenges. Where is the evidence that a new candidate would absolutely be guaranteed to win on election day without the key predictive advantages of INCUMBENCY and a solid and smooth primary election win for Biden? It doesn't exist. The average voter doesn't consider any of this. Many do not understand how this all works.

My message to everyone is stop the bedwetting over snapshot non-predictive polls. Stop the fallacies and fantasies. Stop this political suicide nonsense. Get behind Biden because he is the candidate! Period.

[ProfessorGAC]

1. Good Post

Recommended

[Walleye]

2. It is true. The average voter doesn't understand how this works, many politicians don't either.

I just remarked in another post that I believe Putin understands American politics better than a lot of Americans do. This is the kind of thing they warned us against all during the Cold War. We have a new generation who never experienced that.

[The Magistrate]

3. Agree On All Counts, Sir

Ousting your incumbent is a trick that never works. Bullwinkle's got a better chance of pulling a rabbit out of that hat...

[Oopsie Daisy]

14. Nothing up my sleeve! PRESTO!

I gotta get me a new hat!

[DoBW]

40. some people still trying to sow doubt. I smell Russians

[Oopsie Daisy]

58. Yes. Among others. There are many who hate and resent Biden *

* and who want to "punish" him (and his supporters, and the nation) because he's not perfect-enough, and not left-enough. But the fact of the matter is that national elections are won from the center, not the extremes. Trump/Vance is a perfect example of EXTREME. Loyal Democrats and reasonable independents and center-minded folk will gravitate toward Biden. Only those on the extreme ends of the political horseshoe will vote Trump, or "third party" so that they can make a statement and ultimately any vote that does not benefit Biden will benefit Trump.

[GiqueCee]

15. Fan mail from some flounders?

[SpankMe]

33. I miss Bullwinkle. n/t

[fargone]

4. Well put

Wishing it were someone else and voting for T...P are not the same thing.

[ProfessorPlum]

5. I agree with you. However, the alternate candidate would have to be Harris

Last edited Thu Jul 18, 2024, 09:22 AM - Edit history (1)

who has already gone through the primary process with Biden. That doesn't stop the bed wetters from pretending there is some super awesome alternative just waiting in the wings (without describing the process of nominating that person)

edit: wrong homonym. Also, I think bed wetters is too harsh here - I think that changing from Biden at this date is a losing, panicky strategy that is not well thought out and also should be done behind closed doors and not out in the media, if it is to be done at all. And I also understand that people who want to switch from Biden believe that it is the best way to win, so I respect that even if I disagree.

[SomedayKindaLove]

45. Kamala Harris

Dropped out of the 2020 race on 12/3/19, a month before the primaries started.

[ProfessorPlum]

61. I'm talking about the 2024 primaries

[SomedayKindaLove]

62. Gotcha, thanks, my bad

[BrightKnight]

72. A complete solution like Michelle Obama / Harris might work.

I doubt she wants to but if the intention is to switch then present Biden with a complete solution that is workable. Biden drops is more problem than solution.

I’m not saying that is the best ticket but the details need to be sorted first. Rather than say he should drop say what ticket should be run wit a better chance of success.

[democrattotheend]

6. I have to disagree with #3

For two reasons:

1. While you and I and probably everyone here thinks Biden has done a great job in his first time, his job approval ratings do not reflect this and have not for a long time. Even before the debate, Biden had a lower approval rating than Trump at this point in 2020 and lower than any incumbent who has won reelection since Harry Truman. So even putting the age questions aside, if it's a referendum on the incumbent (and not about the danger of his opponent), we lose. It seems crazy to you and me, but the bottom line is, despite the macro economic indicators being good, people in the real world are hurting from how expensive everything has gotten, and even though most of the reasons are outside the president's control, the old adage is true that people won't vote for the incumbent if they don't feel they are better off now than they were four years ago.

2. I think that especially in a situation like this, voters do not just focus on how well the incumbent has performed in his first four years, but how he will do in the next four years. So many people have seen their parents or other relatives decline precipitously when they get into their 80's, and it's not unreasonable to worry about the same with Biden. I don't think he has dementia or Parkinson's or anything like that, but there's no denying that he isn't as smooth or quick on his feet or charismatic as he was a decade ago or even four years ago.

To be clear, I don't think he should be forced to step aside, and replacing him comes with huge risks. But I think a lot of people have their heads buried in the sand here. In light of the Republican electoral advantage that was almost 4 points in 2020 and the fact that Trump has overperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020, national polls showing Biden tied, let alone behind Trump, are actually terrifying.

[Taraman]

17. Biden has been an excellent President, probably the best in my over 50 years of voting

but that doesn't matter to most people. Most Americans do not vote rationally; they vote emotionally. As a result, we had Trump, one of the most vile humans I've ever seen in public life.

The question is: "Can Biden win this thing"? and I have bad Hillary Clinton vibes about this election. It's the Electoral College problem again, and the battleground states.

We HAVE TO WIN this, or the American experiment is done, all gone.

But I live in an ultra red state and have zero power or representation, and I'm just an old voyeur at this point.

[oldsoftie]

57. Exactly! Many people vote emotionally.

And many will make up their mind the week of the election based on what they SEE & feel. If gas is high, if the border is still a mess, is the stock market down (a LOT), how are THEIR finances, etc.
They dont watch events daily like WE do.

[Deminpenn]

24. People take their everyday frustrations out on the incumbent's

"approval". This isn't unique to Biden or any elected official.

My folks were still active and engaged well into their 80s. I doubt I'm alone.

[LudwigPastorius]

7. " In head to head matchups in the polls (for those who love polls), it is a tie race. "

Not in these states that won Biden the White House four years ago. (excluding North Carolina)

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

[lees1975]

13. Ah, yes. A return to the "red wave 2022" composite poll RCP.

I think the point has been made that most polls are seriously underpolling Biden at this point, and there are a couple of posts in General Discussion that show this data.

[LudwigPastorius]

16. Sorry, I forgot that we only like the polls that show us as being ahead.

[lees1975]

22. Yes, and RCP has never done that. Even when we won.

[lees1975]

23. Pay your money, take your choice. 538 says exactly the opposite.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4775192-bidens-odds-best-since-may-in-new-538-model/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

Actually, that's ticked up since Monday, when it was 52-48. Now its 54-46.

[LudwigPastorius]

26. RCP uses the simple average of different polls, not some "predictive" algorithm like 538.

Different methods, different results...no surprise there.

[lees1975]

37. Which explains their errors since 2016, in light of 538's relative success.

[Deminpenn]

27. When you use a poll aggregator, you have to

understand it averages all polls and makes no attempt to discern good, bad or indifferent polling methodology or pollster bias.

The theory is that by using all polls, biases or bad polls kind of cancel each other out. What we saw in 2022 was a spate of polls biased toward Rs were done thus overwhelming what might be the natural tendency of averages to approximate reality.

[LudwigPastorius]

30. Yes, RCP doesn't include the polls that are privately commissioned by the parties themselves.

...the polls that possibly Schiff, Jefferies, Schumer, and Pelosi are looking at. ??

[Deminpenn]

35. Schumer and Jefries' motives ae no more

complicated than Jeffries wants to be Speaker of the House and Schumer wants to remain Senate majority leader.

I know here in red western PA, my two Senators and CD representative are with Biden. You'd think they'd be jumping ship if internal polls showed a benefit of doing that. In fact, battle ground polls I've seen show down ballot Dems out performing the top of the ticket.

In fact today I got a mailer from my congressman promoting all he's done for the district with nary a mention of Biden or Harris.

[A Physicist]

69. "with nary a mention of Biden or Harris"

Bingo!!!

[lees1975]

8. K & R

[Bettie]

9. I'm just so angry about this

Republicans are runing an actual criminal, a guy who has never in his life done anything for anyone else, only for himself.

And we have a good, decent man who has given everything to this country who now, several congresscritters have declared is too old and should be put out to pasture because... well, because they are afraid the big money will dry up if they don't get someonee in who will take care of their real constituents...megadonors.

[MustLoveBeagles]

11. I can't believe this is still a thing.

[Bettie]

19. Right?

If they wanted another canddidate, a year or two ago would have been the correct time to discuss it, to start boosting that person, but, they decided to wait and do it at the most damaging time possible.

[MichMan]

51. Anyone who dared come out to primary Joe would have been pilloried

[Bettie]

59. They could have made their case.

Dean Phillips did it in the most douchey way possible. The ‘leaders’ could have spoken with Biden.

But this is really about rich people who don’t like the masses to have an advocate for them in the White House. They want a president who will do their bidding… tax cuts, deregulation etc.

[lees1975]

25. That's the bottom line. It's not Trump's existential threat, it's "show me the money."

And to think, our party once advocated for campaign finance reform.

[ancianita]

10. Polls were wrong in 2018, 2020, 2022. AGAIN. NEVER TRUST CORPORATE MEDIA POLLS.

[h2ebits]

12. K & R

100% spot on.

We need a strong offense from this moment forward and "damn the torpedoes."

[et tu]

18. early on when i thought

joe wouldn't run again, i thought ok then we will finally have
our first woman as president because of what a super job both have done.
but when he decided to run again, i am 100% in and only feel so badly that
after all he has done, the low hanging fruit dems want him to step aside. he
wants to finish what he his vision is for our country, for us. how sad to be
kicked in the head by people you thought you could trust.
unite and vote blue~

[relayerbob]

20. 100% Truth

I tried to contact Schiff today on three of his public phone numbers .... all are buried, no voice mail space and the DC number doesn't even pick up, it's so covered up. So, I sent a rather scathing email to him.

The bedwetters have NO plan, NO idea of the consequences, and have clearly forgotten the many times that this sort of thing has utterly failed and brought disastrous Republicans into office, from Nixon to Reagan to Bush to Trump.

WTF is wrong with these people?

[farmboy]

28. What is wrong with the "name callers" who can't defend a point without trying to belittle fellow Democrats?

Elites!!! Bedwetters!!! Reminds me of someone of an orange tone that just loves to make up names for those who challenge his opinions.

[Deek1935]

36. Because it's the truth. They need to stop this SHIT. It is pure conjecture going down a fucked up rabbit hole.

We had a PRIMARY. Biden won. Biden is doing great out there on the trail right now. This SHIT is being pushed by RICH DONORS and some politicians are shitting their pants over MONEY. That's all this is.

[relayerbob]

55. HEre is the defense of my point

Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, Hillary Clinton

All severely damaged by DEMOCRATS before critical elections. I could name many others, but those will do.

The people freaking out about Biden are NOT the rank-and-file Democrats, and if they had the courage of their convictions they would be standing up and making sure our nominee, the one WE VOTED FOR, has all the support he needs.

NO ONE ELSE can win this election at this late time, and the press will have a major party time if we change horse midstream, and the GQP will file suit in every state to fuck up the ballots. The people doing this are self-serving cowards, IMO, trying to position themselves for 2028.

So, unless you have something else constructive to add, stay out of it. Given you have 280 posts, I suspect you to be a troll soming in to create dissension, in any case.

[quakerboy]

68. I think thats untrue

The people "freaking out" ARE the rank and file. At least in my circles. I dont know a single local level dem who doesn't quietly wish we had a different candidate at this point. The text conversations that flowed my way after the debate were not with elites. They were with regular folks, most POC or queer, who were freaking the hell out at the prospect that the debate might help Trump take power and end life as they know it. And the best i could offer them was that while I shared their dismay, I didnt think anyone was going to flip their vote over the debate.

And every one of them, like myself, will vote for Biden assuming he is the Democrat on our ballot. While he has had a damn good presidency, thats honestly not why. Its because the alternative is self immolation. And while there are some on the far left who think that an imperfect handling of Palestine is worth burning the whole nation down over, thats not the people who tend to text me to have candid conversations.

But not flipping votes is not the winning move here. Not voting for trump is great, but we need the less involved folks to show up and vote for our nominee.

[farmboy]

76. Well your judgement is certainly wrong here. Hmmm No troll here.

Just a dedicated lifetime working class Democrat who won’t be bullied by name callers Republican or Democratic alike. I just don’t fit the “elite” label that has to be true for so many here to be correct. They are not.

[relayerbob]

77. Who bullied you?

YOU jumped into my post, and ONLY my post. If you weren’t being defensive when people weren’t even discussing you, then what was your point? Oh, yeah. Trolling.

[farmboy]

78. Keep saying it. Keep being wrong.

Saying I’m trolling when I’m not IS bullying. Telling me to leave the conversation IS bullying. You also seem to not understand being “defensive”. I’m clearly not. I will gladly discuss my opinions without going to that level.

[aggiesal]

46. I just cancelled my monthly donation to Adam Schiff ...

and my reason for cancelling was his statement.

I didn't hold back.
I hope he reads it.

[BaronChocula]

21. I was lectured by a bed-wetter

when I left a similar comment on a post. I ignored it since the "lecturer" basically ignored the points I was making.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

29. These polls ignore the fact that the GOP may be able to keep a Biden replacement off the ballot in key states

Ballot access litigation is very strange. It is not easy to get onto the ballot for third parties and there are traps even for the two main parties. The GOP and the Heritage Foundation are hoping that President Biden is removed from the ticket so that they can try to keep President Biden's replacement off the ballot in swing states.

Link to tweet

https://www.mediaite.com/biden/top-conservative-think-tank-vows-to-make-it-extraordinarily-difficult-for-dems-to-replace-biden-by-filing-swing-state-lawsuits/

Heritage Foundation has vowed to do everything possible to keep Democrats from replacing President Joe Biden as the party’s presidential nominee.

Approximately four months ago, the conservative organization began researching laws in states for replacing nominee in key swing states, according to a report from NOTUS. Staffers for Heritage’s Oversight Project compiled the report back in April and released it ahead of the debate.

“If the Biden family decides that President Biden will not run for re-election, the mechanisms for replacing him on ballots vary by state,” reads the memo. “There is the potential for pre-election litigation in some states that would make the process difficult and perhaps unsuccessful.”

The organization’s Oversight Project Executive Director Mike Howell said, in a statement to NOTUS, they would make the process for replacing Biden “extraordinarily difficult.”

“We’ve zeroed in on a few states that we think are the best case,” Howell told the news outlet without naming the specific states. The memo, however, identifies Nevada, Washington, and Georgia as the most likely states to use litigation to stop a new Democratic nominee from replacing Biden on the ballot......

“The problem that any potential replacement for Joe Biden would likely run into is that in many states, including in several key states, the deadline for getting on the ballot has already passed,” said Zack Smith, a senior legal fellow at Heritage, in a statement to NOTUS. “Or in many states, the process for replacing a candidate currently on the ballot just isn’t clearly defined because it happens so rarely.”

[rso]

42. RSO

Getting on the ballot may be a problem only if the nominee is switched out AFTER the Convention, it would be no problem before and during the Convention.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

47. You are WRONG

Here is a thread on the plans of the Heritage Foundation and the GOP to sue if President Biden is removed from the ballot.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219114429
It is likely that we may have trouble in Nevada, Georgia and Nevada
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219114429#post8

[rso]

43. RSO

Getting on the ballot may be a problem only if the nominee is switched out AFTER the Convention, it would be no problem before and during the Convention.

[Butterflylady]

74. I'd like to know, why

Because they are confident a win over Joe. Why, what would they sue?

[oasis]

31. If anyone needs to be "kicked to the curb" it's

those who are not on board with Joe Biden.

to the curb with mealy mouthed, wishy washy nay sayers.

[Joe_michigan]

32. I am Riding with Biden

The hell with those know-it-all assholes.

I am voting for Joe.

[katmondoo]

34. I just cannot understand that some of the people I trusted and supported want Joe Biden to step down.

They are breaking my heart. I will support him and do everything I can to help him to the very end. There isn't anyone else that compares or surpasses his ability to keep our Democracy safe. I am shedding some tears now.

[jaxexpat]

38. Polls are the false flags of this contest. There will be a large attendance at November's polls.

There will be a popular landslide for Biden and Democrats generally. The Electoral College will rear its ugly head a bit, but it will only present a challenge in the counting. The Democrats need only concentrate on their representatives at the polls and the offices of election officials in purple states, swing states and confederate states to counter the rat-fuckers the Republicans will have stationed there to disrupt the voting and the tallying. Though I really think the Trumpist morons will be so unqualified and just plain ignorant as to be useless unless it comes to armed violence.

The current President of the United States really needs to have circumstances for potential National Guard response nailed down and red inked with the Governors of these states ahead of time. It would help everyone in the country to know that any poll violence will be quashed immediately. It's not for nothing that the president is called commander and chief, you know.

[Abstractartist]

39. And

Prove to me these are all democrats voting. Many believe polls and follow them to the end of time. I do not. I believe polls are totally skewed.

For example. A MAGAt takes a poll and says democrat. He answers as a democrat, but negatively. It still counts as democrat. Too many trumpets are scared shitless the chosen one will be beat again. Lie, cheat, anything to win.

Even exit polls are skewed. A wife of a major MAGAt may lie and say she voted trump, but really wants women’s healthcare and choices.

[C Moon]

41. #4 couldn't be truer. Plus the fact that this is all a right wing bull shit topic.

that for some reason, many are falling for it—now including high profile Dems.
Things always look bleak during the rnc. We'll have our chance at bat soon.

[Rocknation]

44. All polls should be taken with a pillar of salt

Rocknation

[barbtries]

48. WE ALREADY VOTED FOR HIM!!

sorry for screaming but i am frustrated to the point of rage.

[jmbar2]

49. From what I can find...

...it seems BlueLabs Analytics data is driving the freakout.

https://bluelabs.com

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-be78-dd41-afb9-fefc35f00000

They are asking people right before an election, "Hey, would you rather have candidate A, B, C, or D?" is not the same as asking, "Would changing candidates right before an election be more or less likely to defeat Trump?"

I worry that our elected leaders are missing this point.

[peachpit24]

50. Biden

It's pressure from rich donors.

[waterwatcher123]

52. Election-Polls-are-95-Confident, 60 Percent Accurate

I posted a link to this report about polling previously (https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/#) . If AP can report about Biden, where is their mention that the majority of Americans in their own poll want Trump to drop out?

[thesquanderer]

53. re: " how presidential elections actually work. It is an up or down vote on the performance of the incumbent..."

I would say it's not quite that simple, as important as that factor may be.

[stonecutter357]

54. cool story bro

[BarbD]

56. We should not let the fear of Trump guide our decision.

We need to have courage. Work together and lead the faint of heart. Biden/Harris was the winning ticket in 2020 and will be again in 2024.

[dai13sy]

60. Thank you for this

The group down the hall are doing the "If you don't switch to a different candidate, you're not a real Democrat" pissed me off along with everything else that was being said. My goal is for President Biden to be re-elected President and Vice President Harris to be re-elected Vice President and continue doing the fantastic job they've been giving us together. I want to win - I don't want to throw in the towel - that's what cowards do!

[SouthBayDem]

63. After reading that AP article, I'll add a point number five:

Original article: Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw, new AP-NORC poll finds

Missing from that article: Which "alternative candidate" would these "drop out" respondents actually support?

These types of polls that omit an actual "what's your alternative?" question to "most people say X should be ended" are a waste of time.

[wolfie001]

64. When I saw one of the sources being the New York Post, my bullshit meter was off the charts!!!

New York Post is a Murdoch trash can of lies and propaganda. Their Page 6 was personal Ad space for the Fat Don.

[TheKentuckian]

65. The voters don't understand what their motivations to vote are supposed to be so ignore them

seems wildly crazed.

Plus, considering Biden's job approval numbers are at like 32% the argument is hash unless you are going to fix that perception too.

Sure, it should be double that or more so I guess you can go off "what should be the job approval" but it seems like putting fingers in your ears and going "Lalalala" while skipping circles around the graveyard.

[standingtall]

67. Biden's approval rating is probably closer to the high 30's and as high as 40

I could only find 1 poll with Biden having a 32% approval rating a Pew Research Center and only 1 below 29% from Patriotic Polling which sounds like a maga outfit anyway. Biden's approval rating would likely improve as we move closer to the election if Democrats calling for Biden's removal would shut their mouths. Approval averages are skewed like general election polls at this point with many people not engaged yet. The approval while not great is certainly does not indicate Biden cannot win. Even if Biden's approval rating doesn't improve down the stretch this election will still be a binary choice. Stats that say no President has ever been reelected with an approval rating so low are next to meaningless. For one there is a first time for everything and two I bet I can find examples of Senators and Governors being reelected with approval ratings in the 30s or similar to Biden's. Like Harry Reid was going to lose to what's her face, because he had a low approval rating and then election day happened and he won handily.

[Mblaze]

66. Any one who wants to draft Kamala Harris to run instead of Joe

Should realize that if we re-elect Joe, we get Kamala as well. Win/win.

[Emile]

70. The main stream media is going to great pains to elect Trump.

[praxEs]

71. We seem to have collectively forgotten

that there are many pollsters who characteristically and mostly vary from each other in respect to validity. No longer is the MSM deigning to even name the polling outfit.

It would be wonderful if we could return to examining the sources, sampling approach and specific questions for all polling.

[Farmer-Rick]

73. The polls are broken

Because no one answers their phone anymore.

It's that simple.

And the people who do answer their phones, have got to be kind of weird. Who answers an unknown number anymore....think about it. Your bored grandmother? A person expecting a different caller? A very inexperienced person who hasn't had a lot of telemarketers calling? Hmm not a very representative sample of Americans.

And why don't they do door to door, in person polling? Because it's expensive to pay people to go out and ask. But more importantly, they can't manipulate the data as easily with good very large samples.

[LymphocyteLover]

75. Yes, agreed