WaPo: The polls are inconclusive. Advantage Biden.

[ucrdem]

July 17, 2024 at 2:08 p.m. EDT

Biden’s bad month hasn’t led to a dramatic drop in his numbers — or really much of a drop at all.

President Biden and his supporters, in their push for him to remain the Democrats’ candidate, have been helped by a surprising source: the polls.

(snip)

But another reason Biden can’t be dislodged easily is polling. If the president had no path to victory and another Democrat had a clear one, I suspect there would be much more momentum behind the calls for him to leave the race. But neither of those conditions exist. The president is just barely behind Trump in Michigan (3 percentage points) and Pennsylvania (less than 1 point) and effectively tied in Wisconsin, according to polling averages from The Post. (Other news organizations have slightly different averages, but they generally show very tight margins in those three states.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/17/inconclusive-polls-help-biden/

So it seems the step-down chorus is not motivated by polling. What are they motivated by?

[unblock]

1. Mega donor revolt. Has to be. Really it's the only explanation.

They're clearly not listening to the polls or real people.

[gay texan]

2. Translation:

"Our plot isnt working!!!!"

[Lovie777]

3. Rich donors...........

😡

[applegrove]

4. Of course they are motivated by polls. Nice cherry

picking there. What about all the polls that say battleground states now include Virginia and New Hampshire that were democratic strongholds.

[lees1975]

7. What about the ones that have Biden

up by 5 in Mi and Wi, by 2 in PA and 11 in VA?

[applegrove]

8. So you admit the polls are not uniformly positive

for Biden? And especially not when third parties are involved?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

24. Where are those? Can you post?

It would make a lot of people very happy here.

[ucrdem]

15. What cherry picking? I said step-downers.

I didn't name names, but there are still two dozen Dems who haven't retracted their official calls for Biden to step down, latest being a well-known California congressman today:

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/05/g-s1-8551/biden-support-tracker

[applegrove]

17. You cherry picked one poll. That had Biden losing the Presidency i might

add because Biden needs to win those three and the states that have changed to lite blue from blue.

[ucrdem]

18. "According to polling averages from The Post. "

That's the Washington Post, today.

[applegrove]

19. Trump is ahead +3 in Michigan. That poll of polls:

https://wapo.st/4f4LDoS

Biden losses. What is your point?

[ucrdem]

21. 538 has Trump up in Michigan by .7% today:

More importantly look at the trend:

Joe will have Michigan back in his pocket very soon.

[applegrove]

22. But he is not ahead. He loses the election. And

voters have been very stuck in their ways.

[ucrdem]

23. There's movement, and it's in Joe's direction.

Obama went through the same thing -- down in the polls, four months of hardcore campaigning, and he wins.

Nobody thought Biden would clean up on Super Tuesday back in 2020 either.

[lees1975]

5. That's a good question and I want to know the answer.

I'm a financially contributing supporter and a volunteer. Been a Democrat since 1975. So please stop keeping secrets and come out with it.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2024/07/because-we-are-democrats.html

[ColinC]

6. Not only is he tied in the states mentioned but 538 is showing him fairly rapidly gaining ground in FL GA and NC

[SamuelTheThird]

9. Compare it to 2020 though

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/pennsylvania/

Biden was NEVER behind in PA

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/michigan/

Biden was NEVER behind in MI

[shrike3]

11. Ooh, more concern.

[SamuelTheThird]

13. Guilty as charged.

I'm extremely fucking concerned when I contemplate trump in the white house

I've made it a 'hobby' to study climate change for many years. What trump would mean for the entire planet is not something pleasant to contemplate

So, yes concerned.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

16. Show a goddamned path to victory without *our* President Biden.

[shrike3]

10. I don't need a poll to tell me that.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

12. I think it is the battleground state polls and internal polling.

I think if he starts winning more of the battleground state polls, they will lay off. It needs to show it’s trending in the right direction.

[Takket]

14. Democrats also have outperformed polling pretty handily since Roe was overturned.

[ucrdem]

20. I'm listening to Julian Castro being interviewed on New Yorker Radio hour.

Spewing "we can't win" FUD like a broken hydrant. Okay, maybe it was recorded earlier, but Julian would fit right it to Fox News.