Please help me understand polling and how it works

[indigovalley]

I've been through a lot of elections but I'm totally clueless on how polling works and what it actually means. Please explain current polling. Biden and Trump are essentially tied nationally yet those wanting to replace Biden are showing individual state polls where he is behind. How can both of these be true? Wouldn't the national polls be lower if the state polls are lower? How do these relate?

Also-that poll showing that the majority of voters want Biden replaced. Did they ask those same voters if they were going to vote for him anyway? Because it would seem to me that would be significant information to know. It seems like all that poll is saying is that voters wish it were someone different. But it doesn't say they aren't going to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Also, what about groups that may vote Democratic in this election but usually do not. Such as the "Never Trumper" Republicans, mainstream Republicans, and other anti-Trump groups. Are these voters reflected in the polls? Everyone talks about the Independent vote but these groups are also in the mix (and potentially could have an impact).

Lastly, we are four months from the election and serious widespread campaigning hasn't even started yet. There are still issues coming for Trump (sentencing) and potentially actions with the documents case. Project 2025 is just getting known. So considering that polls are a snapshot in time how actually predictive are they (right now) for November?

Sorry for the long post....

[DinahMoeHum]

1. Can't really help you what you ask. . .

. . .but last year, The Washington Monthly called the obsession with polls "Mad Poll Disease". Their suggestion? Stop following them and concentrate in turning out the vote.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2023/09/29/a-cure-for-mad-poll-disease/#:~:text=If%20you%20share%20this%20panic,polling%20methodology%20and%20sample%20bias.

Hope this helps.

[indigovalley]

4. I will check that out

Its the obsession with polling that perplexes me. Its impacted by so many factors I wonder if they really predict anything.

[Meadowoak]

2. The only polling question they ever ask is,

Do you think Biden is too old to run for President. And 2 thirds of the people say, Biden is too old.
But they never seem to ask if Trump is too old. They really want to push Biden's age.

[kansasobama]

3. Polling stupidity

Just asking if Biden is too old obviously will net an answer of yes. But that is not the point. Will you vote for Biden vs dictatorship is the question. They do not ask that, do they.

[Deminpenn]

5. The biggest thing is to look at each poll and each pollster

individually. The poll should be transparent by giving actual numbers, percentages, crosstabs, marginal frequencies and methodology. If it's a likely voter sample, the pollster should explain how it defines who is a likely voter. If they weight the poll, the pollster should explain how they weight it.

A great example of a poll that does all of the above is the Franklin and Marshall College poll, formerly the Keystone Poll.

If a pollster isn't providing at least most of the transparent things listed or has a known partisan bias, then at least some skepticism is warranted.

[indigovalley]

7. Thanks for this info

I will check it out

[Solomon]

6. Polls are no longer done to inform what voters are thinking. Rather they are done to tell voters what to think.

I agree with you 100% that asking whether Biden is too old or should step aside is not the same as asking if you will vote for him. Its been driving me crazy.

[indigovalley]

8. Agree. There isn't any purpose to this poll..

It doesn't predict anything. It just reflects a view--not voting intention. There was a similar poll for Trump I believe during the primary. Most Republican voters said they would prefer someone else. But that also didn't reflect actual voting behavior.

[-misanthroptimist]

9. Answering your last question first:

Current polls are useless for predicting the election in November. That's especially true in a close race.

Polling itself is complicated. Sample size, sample make up, questions asked (and unasked), the phrasing of those questions, definition of sub-groups (i.e. "likely voters) and subsequent weighting all affect polling results. I have virtually no faith in polls generally, and only slightly more for sites like 538 or RCP which combine polls, supposedly to give an overall view.

Most of these state polls have a large margin of error 4.5% or more. And that MoE applies to each number reported, not just the difference. So, when you hear that Trump is ahead, say, 49-47 with a MoE of +/-3 that actually means that poll is showing a statistical dead heat. Trump might be ahead 52-44...or he might be behind 46-50. There is no way to tell with any confidence.

IMO, polls too often try to shape rather than reflect public opinion.