Some threads: Polling and the Crypto boys

[jmbar2]

1. Blue Labs Analytics
The polling that is freaking out Nancy and Adam, is being conducted by BlueLabs Analytics https://bluelabs.com

- BlueLabs received funding from Sequoia Capital, a Silicon Valley venture tech firm that funds crypto start-ups. https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?vendor=BlueLabs+Analytics

- The tech/crypto bros are withholding funding from the Dems in favor of a different candidate.

- The polls in question, were ostensibly paid for by the Dem Senatorial and Congressional Campaigns. https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?vendor=BlueLabs+Analytics

The Polling questions are "loaded"
- The way the question is being asked, four months before the election: "Would you prefer candidate A, B, or C?", is being asked AFTER the decision was made.

- It is prompting respondents to answer a settled question. Biden is already the nominee. The poll is being used to drive the the idea that Biden should step down. Nancy and Adam have bought into it.

- The more important polling question should be, "Would changing candidates (no matter who) right before an election be more or less likely to defeat Trump?" No one is asking that question.

- If they were, they would likely see most people adamantly opposed to such a change at this moment in time - too risky.

2. Jim Himes
Himes was the first to start the un-nominate Biden ball rolling. He is a former Goldman Sachs banker, and advocate for the US central bank to adopt digital currency. He is a thoughtful guy, probably the most knowledgeable in congress about crypto. He is well aware of the potentials and risks of crypto - worth following on these issues.

But definitely not neutral.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/01/12/after-ftx-crypto-companies-no-longer-have-benefit-of-the-doubt-on-capitol-hill-says-congressman/

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-be78-dd41-afb9-fefc35f00000
Data from the poll

https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2022/03/29/transcript-evolution-money-cryptocurrency-with-rep-jim-himes-d-conn-leah-wald/

[Bettie]

1. I can not believe how many people don't realize

that how a question is worded is SO much more important than what the tick marks mean.

You can guide people to the answers you want by how you ask the question.

And yeah, tech bros will do their tech bro thing.

And they have lots of money...so, they bellieve that they can run the whole show. All the influence none of the responsibility.

[ms liberty]

5. How AND in what order.

Sometimes I've been polled and a question gets asked once, then a couple of questions later is asked again, often reworded slightly. I notice those things, and I get polled a good bit.

[Bettie]

9. I was a Communications major in college

and it was a long time ago. But, I had one professor whose "thing" was polling and how easily it can be manipulated simply by changing the wording of the question or which aspect of a question they put the most empahsis on.

It has made me extremely skeptical of polling in general. People are easily manipulated by language.

Use a loaded word and it it will elicit a response in most poeple. Polls are not "simple information gathering", they are so much more than that.

[Deminpenn]

28. That's how pollsters test respondents

Trying weed out people who are giving rote answers to influence the poll results I believe.

[NoveltySocks]

2. Mike Novogratz, a crypto bro

Is a really loud voice in all of this and has been at it for awhile.

[dobleremolque]

3. This is the most cogent and probable explanation of why

all this "Quit Joe Quit!" pressure is happening. Thank you!

Wish I could recommend this post more than once to help get it to the top of the DU Home tab/heap.

[jmbar2]

4. Thank you!

It's all just my amateur research/opinion. But it's worth knowing some of the intersecting threads. This attempted ouster of Biden is not coming from the grassroots.

[BootinUp]

6. Jmbar2 this looks like very useful info!

[Progressive dog]

7. IMO This has always been about getting rid of Biden

not of Democrats winning.
The involvement of crypto investors explains a lot.Our money is backed by the economy of the United States. Crypto is backed by nothing, crypto firms have no source of income to buy back their crypto currency.
IMO It is a pyramid scheme which at some point will collapse when enough of those at the bottom of the pyramid decide to sell.
U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday calling on the government to examine the risks and benefits of cryptocurrencies.

It’s a long-awaited directive that has had the crypto industry on edge, not least due to growing regulatory concern around the world surrounding the nascent digital asset market.

There had been reports of a divide between White House officials and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen leading to delays in the policy rollout.

The crypto market got wind of the executive order overnight after the Treasury accidentally put out a since-deleted statement calling it “historic” and releasing some of the details ahead of time.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/heres-whats-in-bidens-executive-order-on-crypto.html

[jmbar2]

12. Wow - hadn't seen that. Thanks for posting.

[newdeal2]

8. I posted this last night, but another negative poll was commissioned by a big tech CEO

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219177508#post22

New polling conducted July 15-16 by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation finds former President Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and in a national poll.

Well what is "Democrats for the Next Generation" ? Here is their website: https://demnextgen.com/

They have almost no content and their Instagram has zero followers. Sounds like a fake movement to me.

Anyway, who is funding this group? Major donors who are pressuring Biden to drop out:

Democratic donors divided on what comes next, buying Biden more time]

“It appears inevitable that the president will want to step down,” said Bill Harris, a Miami-based donor and the former CEO of Intuit and PayPal. “He has a tremendous love of this country and a tremendous fear” of what a second Trump term would bring.

Through a political action committee, Democrats for the Next Generation, Harris is offering to put up $2 million to underwrite a debate or a series of debates among potential Biden successors.

So I'm not surprised they're getting the results they wanted from these polls.

[jmbar2]

19. ratf*ckery

[Hugin]

10. So...

It’s competing TechBros? I could believe that. One group got Vance in and now not to be outdone the other group is shoving aside the electorate to get one of theirs in. (Yet to be identified, but not Harris)

Either way, they “win” overall. Damn the poor folks, they’re on their own. The Goldman Sachs angle is interesting.

[jmbar2]

14. There is only one side to the Masters of the Universe

$$$

[NoveltySocks]

11. Also, guess who HAS embraced crypto

and is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin conference next week (hint: he's known to wear butt AND ear diapers)?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-president-trump-reaffirms-bitcoin-154059654.html

[jmbar2]

13. OMG, you've got to be kidding

[LeftInTX]

16. Hasn't Trump always embraced crypto? It seems like a GOP thing to me.

Actually it seems libertarian, but you know what I mean.

[NoveltySocks]

17. No doubt since it's great for $ laundering.

RFK Jr.'s going to make an appearance there too, apparently. There are also liberals who invest heavily in crypto.

I think the crypto bros are freaked at the prospect of strict regulation. That's part of what's driving this whole thing, IMO. They want a crypto-friendly figure to rally around.

[58Sunliner]

25. Exactly-all about the money laundering-Russia has an interest.

[republianmushroom]

15. Polls, with an error of 4% are only 6% more accurate than a coin toss.

Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate, Berkeley Haas study finds

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=19136611

https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/#

[jmbar2]

20. These polls aren't intended to be predictive.

They are to drive the media narrative, and give ammo to the surrender monkeys

[republianmushroom]

21. Agree

They seem to choose the polls they want to use. Remember numbers don't lie, but liars do make up the numbers or choose the polls they want to use.

[shrike3]

18. Mark Cuban just talked about crypto.

Why a lot of the tech bros are backing Trump. It's all about crypto. Interesting.

[proud patriot]

22. Grrrrrrrrr

I'm Furious

[oldmanlynn]

23. Jim himes was not the first to call for Biden to drop out

I think Golden in maine and several others came out first.

[jmbar2]

27. Thanks for the clarification

Wasn't Himes the one who sent out the notification seconds after Biden's interview.

[Deminpenn]

29. Yes

nt

[Hermit-The-Prog]

24. Pushing Biden aside now is akin to pushing Eisenhower aside in March, 1944 -- not good.

[liberalmuse]

26. Lies are being generated to force Biden out.

I don’t trust tech bro polls. They’ve likely promised someone very sly that they will fund their Presidential campaign if Biden is forced out. They love their money and don’t want their taxes raised. Sadly, this could simply be greed meets an insatiable lust for power and they combined forces and made a devil’s bargain. Unfortunately I feel other party leaders are being manipulated with bad info into going along. It’s happened before.

[Deminpenn]

30. I read the Emerson poll and

the questions were geared toward replacing Biden.

[jmbar2]

31. Did they poll whether changing the nominee, four months before the election

is even doable, much less a viable strategy?

When people are presented with three choices, they will choose one even if they don't really have an opinion. Those questions are kind of like Gravy Train. Makes its own gravy. (aging myself here)

[Deminpenn]

32. No

Nt

[hueymahl]

33. Crypto is a huge part of this

Crypto and AI is where a ton of investment capital is going and where a lot of the innovation is. AI more recently, but crypto never went away after the FTX implosion (which, to be fair, was just an old-fashioned fraud by a company that happened to be in the crypto industry). It just kept building.

Unfortunately, Silicon Valley's embrace of Trump is a bit of a self-inflicted harm. The last two elections, that group voted and spent overwhelmingly for Democrats. But this cycle, they have been calling for regulation of the industry, and nothing has happened. Instead, Ginsler (head of SEC) has refused to issue proposed regulations and instead has attempted to regulate by enforcement. Senator Warren's vocal stance against crypto did not help. This has pushed those invested in the industry for an alternative that will take a more favorable stance than (the apparent) stance by the Biden administration.

Drumph saw an opportunity and stepped in. He no more cares about crypto than he cares about global warming. But now he is the "crypto" candidate and the savior of the AI/Crypto/Tech industry.

[chowder66]

34. Question....I don't see Sequoia Capital as a donor in that link to open secrets.

I see American Bridge 21st Century - is that somehow tied to Sequoia and if so how?
It looks like Sequoia split up into three different entities in 2023.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequoia_Capital

[jmbar2]

35. Yes, Sequoia is the top donor to American Bridge, contributing $4.8 million in 2024

https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/american-bridge-21st-century/C00492140/donors/2024

American Bridge was originally supposed to be funding Biden, but is sitting on funds for now, consistent with reports that funders are withholding funds to get him to step down.

They have have spent a ton of money this election cycle, including $479,203 for polling. But have not donated to any candidate.

https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/american-bridge-21st-century/C00492140/expenditures/2024

[chowder66]

36. Thank you! I should have asked first before trying to look for myself.

I spent about a half hour digging around wondering what I was missing.

I appreciate that you took the time to respond.

[jmbar2]

37. You're welcome

I've done a lot of research in my career. It's the best contribution I can think of to try to defend democracy. But I also appreciate good questions. Sometimes I'm wrong.

[chowder66]

39. I found it educational.

[Hekate]

38. Very interesting. KnR