BREAKING: Prof. Lichtman: "If Democrats hope to retain the White House in November, they need to support Joe Biden."

[Deek1935]

This is on Twitter from 20 hours ago.

This is from the ONLY person who has predicted every presidential election since 1984 correctly (including 2000), and retrospectively to 1860. Prof. Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House, based on rigorous historical analysis, have NEVER been wrong. The 13 Keys are about how presidential elections REALLY work. They are up or down votes on GOVERNANCE and other BIG PICTURE key factors. Google it if you are not familiar with it.

His "Plan B" would require to Biden resign ENTIRELY and give the ENTIRE presidency to Harris along with the delegates. Only then could the INCUMBENCY and NON-DIVISIVE PRIMARY keys be preserved. But that is a FANTASY and we all know that IS NOT going to happen.

So, for those who think dropping Biden is just going to be oh so fine as long as we "poof in" Harris, or anyone else, or get into a new nasty primary contest, or an open convention, you are FANTASIZING.

Forcing Biden out means we are FUCKED WITH A CHAINSAW, and our "leaders" fucking did it to us!

[mahina]

1. Welcome to DU

[JoseBalow]

28. 750 posts in 18 days

Talk about flooding the zone!

[mahina]

30. I meant it sincerely

[JoseBalow]

69. I never doubted it

Aloha!

[mahina]

72. Aloha kaua

[Cha]

44. TThese are Posting Times.. Wanna Guess

how many Posts I've had in 18 days?

[CincyDem]

54. Only a small percent of your 300k+ posts I'm sure.

. And every one better than the last.

[Cha]

58. lol... So I can relate to

anyone Posting A Lot.. Especially Now!

Mahalo, Cincy !

[calimary]

60. Hey, I'm one of the biggest loudmouths on here - TONS of posts!

Cha has a good point: these are certainly Posting Times!

[Cha]

94. It's an Obsession Now more than Ever. Perilous

Times Call For Desperate measures!

calimary~ Long Time DUer!

[JoseBalow]

68. "Number of posts, last 90 days: 3696"

Yikes!

[Cha]

74. See what I mean'

Last edited Fri Jul 19, 2024, 01:41 AM - Edit history (1)

It’s Crazy!

🕯️🕊️💙🌊🇺🇸🌈

[Hekate]

92. I noticed your total the other day and wondered when you ever got to sleep!

Go, Cha!

[Cha]

96. I manage to get my 8 in... lol

Now with posting on my phone too it never stops.. lot of mileage on dU.

And, meet the Nicest Kindred Spirits over 22 years.

[Abolishinist]

102. Quite a few, I'm sure!

And along with that, ZERO hides in 90 days!

[Cha]

103. lol.. I'm really

proud of that.. considering my checkered past!

[FBaggins]

2. Not really breaking. He's been saying this all along

Two of his supposedly-miraculous “keys” are turned if the incumbent is no longer on the ticket and the convention is anything other than a fait acomppli.

He would be forced to pick Trump as the winner with his “never really been wrong” system.

Or admit that it was always overly subjective nonsense.

[Deek1935]

5. He just posted this latest one 20 hours ago and I guess you can not see the words NEVER - BEEN - WRONG.

But go ahead. Bewilder yourself into crazy nonsense about polls, pundits, donors, age, debates...ALL of which have NEVER been predictive. Go ahead. And get ready for PRESIDENT TRUMP. Because that is JUST what is going to happen if we lose INCUMBENCY and PARTY UNITY. Go ahead. Help the "party leaders" commit political suicide. YAY!

[triron]

16. Typical of previous poster. Not surprised.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

38. His "subjective nonsense" has 0 failures so far.

[Tweedy]

77. It isn't overly speculative nonsense

It is based on more data than your average poll. He also has an exceptional track record. Finally, you don’t need to be a math whiz to see incumbency is an enormous benefit. You also don’t need a phd in polisci to see a united party is more effective than a party in open and obvious discord

There never was a President Humphrey, nor a second term for President George HW Bush

This truly isn’t rocket science.

What is even better Joe Biden is excellent at his job. He knows more about how to run this government than anybody else out there and he has been giving us a master class on how our presidency can work.

He had a bad debate.
So what? We all know he is competent
We all know Joe Biden knows what he is doing
We know it to be true.

Even the media knows it is true

Moreover, Kamala Harris is ready to be president if needed

That is all we need to know.

[Initech]

3. Damn right!

Project 2025 should scare the fuck out of everyone. We should be united in stopping the fucking Heritage Foundation for good.

[Butterflylady]

66. That is good idea.

Getting rid of Heritage Foundation. They are a rock around our neck.

[Demsrule86]

4. And there it is...finally some sense...and his guy knows what he is talking about.

[PatSeg]

17. Yes, we need to hear more such voices, more often,

and very loudly!

I am so tired of seeing headlines everyday of yet another prominent Democrat(s) saying Biden should step down. Of course, often the headlines don't necessarily reflect what was actually said, but the perception is out there and it is very hard to change people's first impressions.

[asm128]

6. Kick

People need to remember this

[CousinIT]

7. Just tweeted that @ them

I doubt they will care. Staffers handle their twitter accounts.

[Cha]

15. Do you have a link to the Tweet

Last edited Thu Jul 18, 2024, 02:03 PM - Edit history (1)

that you could share?

I'd like to see the actual Tweet & retweet.

TY

[CousinIT]

22. Tweet + quote-tweet

Tweeted:

Link to tweet

Prof. Lichtman: "If Democrats hope to retain the White House in November, they need to support Joe Biden."

Link to tweet

Democrats, WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING? Prof Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of 9/10 recent elections. WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!

Quote-tweeted:

Link to tweet

@HouseDemocrats
@SenateDems
@SpeakerPelosi
@SenSchumer
@RepAdamSchiff
@TeamPelosi
@RepJeffries

Destroying our nominee & your party? Giving media & Trump FUEL for their "Dems in Disarray" headlines? Trump: "I pushed him off the ballot." (YOU are doing that?) Embarrassing.
🤬😡

[Cha]

27. Wow. You're So Helpful!!

Mahalo!!

[CousinIT]

48. I followed you on Xitter, too. :)

[Cha]

51. Thank You, IT... I'd like

Follow you, too... If you wouldn't mind PM me with your Twitter handle?

I call it Underground twitter,,

[TheProle]

8. With some slight adjustments...

Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly when he predicted it for Donald Trump, he released a book and paper ahead of the election in 2016 which explicitly stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote;[29][30][31][1][2][3] Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but Trump won the Electoral College and was elected president. Lichtman switched to predicting the election winner after 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#Lichtman's_prediction_record_(1984%E2%80%93present)

[democrattotheend]

9. If I understand correctly, his model predicts the popular vote

Which in 2020 was 3.8 points more Democratic than the margin in the tipping point state, Wisconsin. If that holds, Biden or any other Democrat needs to win the popular vote by at least 4-5 points to win the electoral college.

[yardwork]

31. Yes. We have a problem with the essential swing states.

Biden appears to be trailing in several of our must-win states. He may very well win the popular vote, but the EC is all that matters.

Lichtman was correct in 2000 when he predicted that Gore would win the popular vote. Personally, I think that Gore also won FL but the SCOTUS disagreed. No way is Biden winning FL now. He's trailing in NC, GA, AZ, NV, and even PA. MI looks iffy, especially with Rasheeda Tlaib telling her Detroit constituents to vote against Biden. The Teamsters president spoke at the RNC and hasn't endorsed Biden. If we lose the union vote we lose the upper Midwest. It could be a landslide EC win for Trump.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

84. This is becoming a nightmare I can't wake up from.

If America is fated to devolve into an autocracy, I'll never understand why of all people America would elect as its first autocrat Donald Trump, who is the exact opposite of everything America is supposed to stand for.

Half the country have lost their minds.

[radius777]

95. Yeah, Lichtman's model is outdated, as

Biden could easily win the popular vote and still lose the election. Biden barely won last time, in terms of the swing states, iirc it was 40k votes across 4 states that determined the election.

The polling averages - and not just about the choice for president - but about voter sentiment such as right track wrong track, the economy, approval ratings etc - are far better predictors of an electoral college victory than Lichtman's outdated model.

[republianmushroom]

10. Agree

Last edited Thu Jul 18, 2024, 01:41 PM - Edit history (1)

If Biden can't finish his second term we will have Harris as our President.
Why remove Joe ?

[dchill]

23. I believe THAT is a key question that possibly answers itself.

[Bettie]

29. Because she's

um...not white or male. The money people don't like that.

[republianmushroom]

33. You could be very correct.

[allegorical oracle]

52. Just spoke yesterday with a longtime friend. She and her husband voted for tsf in 2016 and 2020

because of tsf's tax breaks. They decided not to vote for him this year and go with Biden because tsf seemed so immoral and vulgar. But they're not sure about Harris.

[valleyrogue]

11. Amen and yes. He will win the White House.

Maybe that is the point with these foolish politicians, loudmouth has-beens, and greedy donors.

[Wicked Blue]

12. K&R

This is exactly what I've been expecting Lichtman to say.

[Cha]

13. Can you Please give us a link.. TY!

[SunSeeker]

14. Lichtman has a "Plan B"? Is that new?

Can you please post a link to his tweet?

[Cha]

34. Plan A & B, SunSeeker...

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[deurbano]

61. That could be dangerously risky. The Senate AND House have to confirm a new VP, and Harris

has broken a record number of ties in the Senate as VP. (Without a VP, that would no longer be possible.) Also, that leaves Johnson as her back-up, which is another horrific thought.

[Cha]

71. I agree So

Plan A it is 🕯️🕊️💙🌊

[deurbano]

73. Yeah, I didn't mean you supported that plan! But I'm suddenly hearing it from

a lot of internet opiners who somehow think it's the perfect solution! (What could possibly go wrong?)

[Cha]

76. Exactly what could go

Wrong 😑


It’s Crazy.. the whole thing is Surreal and Twilight Zone Infused

[peggysue2]

18. Preach it, Deek

Because we're staring into the abyss at the moment.

This ain't no fantasy game. We either come together.

Or we lose.

Everything.

Ask the Germans how fantasy, disunity and apathy worked out for their society.

We have one shot at this.

One.

[Cha]

40. That's Right, PeggySue.. You Preach It!!

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[markodochartaigh]

19. Delete

Last edited Thu Jul 18, 2024, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)

Nt

[Renew Deal]

20. Is he a God?

[duckworth969]

21. Yup

[yardwork]

24. Waaaay too much hysteria. Take it down a notch.

[Dan]

26. As someone posted elsewhere ....the Oligarchs are calling the shots.

Just like they run the GOP now they are trying to do the same thing with the Dems.

The Oligarchs on the right and left should get together and then just tell us who will be president. We can dispense with this dog & pony show called elections.

Former president Jimmy Carter had it right when he said a few years ago - that we are no longer a democracy because the Oligarchs are in charge.

We shouldn’t be mad at our political leaders for discounting the voices of the people, they know who’s paying their bills and I guess it ain’t us.

I wondering if the Oligarchs have their ‘Donald Trump’ from the Democratic Party that they want to put in place? Wonder who it would be - who would be the ‘D’ that would be willing to screw the people for a position of power?

Maybe I’m wrong but it’s starting to feel like there a question mark behind all the get rid of Joe…. Thinking.

[soldierant]

81. Yes. I have noticed that this whole BS started with oligarchs on the left

and is being pushed by corporate Dems with ties to oligarchs.

Whereas Progressives are staunchly behinf Joe.

I think he got the oligarchs suport initially because of his reputation for being able to achieve compromise, and they expected him to be more centrist than he has been'

For that matter, I did too, and I have been delighted by almost all of his actions. And I have been terribly disappointed by the names of those who are following the oligarchs instead of us. Particularly by Adam Schiff and my Senator Michsel Bennet.

[carpetbagger]

32. I trust Biden's instincts more than that model.

The model is a bit subjective, will be true until it's not (e.g. the Curse of Tecumseh).

[johnnyplankton]

35. Except the people close to him who think he should resign

Last edited Thu Jul 18, 2024, 07:38 PM - Edit history (1)

and I'm pretty sure there's a reason. We need to live in reality.

[HUAJIAO]

64. I wish I knew what the reality is. I really don't.

[sanduca]

36. He knows, I know too...

President Biden will win! What the hell is wrong with those democrats in Congress?
Did trumputin scare them?
Did corporate America scare them?
I'm so disappointed with the democrats😡 meanwhile republicans are supporting Satan!

[KPN]

37. Not arguing with the your preference or even your sentiment here

but …. Ummmm, Lichtman did get 2016 wrong. He (his system) predicted Hillary the year.

[asm128]

39. No, it didn't.

He predicted a slightly higher Trump popular vote, but predicted the election for Trump.

https://www.american.edu/media/news/092616-13-keys-prediction.cfm

Maybe look things up before you post.

[KPN]

46. I did look it up. One of these two is right and one is wrong.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

[asm128]

47. Wiki

Wikipedia article versus the PRESS RELEASE from his own site at his university.

Hmmm, which one is more likely correct?

[Renew Deal]

49. His website is not independent.

[KPN]

86. Whatever ....

[asm128]

89. Brilliant retort

[KPN]

90. Lol. Stop wasting your time. Goodbye.

[sky_masterson]

41. I disagree with him.

I'm not willing to ignore everything I'm hearing because he believes his system is infallible.
Not worth a Trump win.
We should be DESTROYING Trump right now. It shouldn't be even close.
But it is.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

85. I wonder if that would be true right now if Biden had delivered a great debate performance.

Instead of an abysmal one.

Even though it was okay on substance, it was terrible in terms of optics and that's all that seems to matter now.

Nor does Trump's multitude of lies during the debate matter.

Maybe three weeks after the debate Biden would've opened up a sizeable lead in the polls had he given a great debate performance, especially if Trump had done poorly in term of optics during that same debate.

But alas, that didn't happen.

And here we are.

But there's still hope that, one way or another, Trump can be defeated in November.

[sky_masterson]

101. Howard Dean screamed and had to quit.

That debate was long silent painful scream. One that the Media will not let him forget because it fell straight into the Narrative Trump was pushing.I don't believe its recoverable.

[iemanja]

42. I don't see why Biden would have to resign

That doesn't make sense to me. LBJ didn't resign.

[XanaDUer2]

43. Link

[BoRaGard]

45. Go Joe - Go Kamala

all the way

[FloridaBlues]

50. If Biden is forced out wait until names are put out there for a new VP candidate

People/delegates May want their own preferred candidate.. Fictional to think all of a sudden this mess won’t affect the base. Even when the new VP candidate is handpicked by Biden / Harris it won’t go smooth as silk.

[TasminCat]

53. this is the answer. SUPPORT BIDEN. ATTACK TRUMP. period.

[BurnDoubt]

67. Yep

Wasting Time, People. Entropy Never Sleeps. Tic Toc, Tic Toc, Tic Toc...........--- One Way. If you find it in time.

[VMA131Marine]

56. This ⬆️⬆️⬆️

[iluvtennis]

57. KnR.

[bobnicewander]

59. I don't know if I'm posting in the right place

As the popular vote has been so decisive throughout history I wonder if the women's vote in this election could be the deciding factor for the election winner.

Pasting an old post of mine:

Election Loser's Percentages

Most elections for president hinge on a small percentage of voters (less than 10%) voting for the loser instead of for the winner. The history of winners and losers percentages in presidential elections shows that the voting division between political parties is quite small. In most elections the loser got 40% or more of the votes - not far from 51%.

Based on my original post of December 31, 2020. Last edited Thu Dec 8, 2022, 12:37 am CST. Bolding of loser's percentage has been removed for this posting.

Data gathered from Dave Leips site.

Only 4 times since the American Civil War has the popular vote loser been elected president. In every case it was a Republican candidate that lost the popular vote but won election. (1876, 1888, 2000, 2016).

In 27 of the the 41 elections listed below the loser has garnered more than 40% of the popular vote. That is, in 65.9% or almost in 2 out of 3 elections the loser had almost 1/2 of the voting public in his or her favor.

Only Democratic and Republican party's percentages are shown.

1st column shows the election year, 2nd column the Democratic party percentage of the popular vote, 3rd column the Republican party percentage of the popular vote. In all elections except the 4 noted the winner of the popular vote was elected to the presidency.

Year****Dem%****GOP%

2020****51.27%***46.82%
2016****48.02%***45.93% POP LOSER STILL ELECTED
2012****51.01%***47.15%
2008****52.86%***45.60%
2004****48.26%***50.73%
2000****48.38%***47.87% POP LOSER STILL ELECTED
1996****49.23%***40.72%
1992****43.01%***37.45%
1988****45.65%***53.37%
1984****40.56%***58.77%
1980****41.01%***50.75%
1976*** 50.08%*** 48.01%
1972*** 37.52%*** 60.67%
1968*** 42.72%*** 43.42%
1964*** 61.05%*** 38.47%
1960*** 49.72%*** 49.55%
1956*** 41.97%*** 57.37%
1952*** 44.33%*** 55.18%
1948*** 49.55%*** 45.07%
1944*** 53.39%*** 45.89%
1940*** 54.72%*** 44.77%
1936*** 60.80%*** 36.54%
1932*** 57.41%*** 39.65%
1928*** 40.79%*** 58.22%
1924*** 28.82%*** 54.03%
1920*** 34.12%*** 60.35%
1916*** 49.25%*** 46.11%
1912*** 41.83%*** 23.18%
1908*** 43.04%*** 51.57%
1904*** 37.59%*** 56.42%
1900*** 45.51%*** 51.66%
1896*** 46.71%*** 51.02%
1892*** 46.02%*** 43.01%
1888*** 48.63%*** 47.80% POP LOSER STILL ELECTED
1884*** 48.85%*** 48.28%
1880*** 48.22%*** 48.31%
1876*** 50.92%*** 47.92% POP LOSER STILL ELECTED
1872*** 43.78%*** 55.58%
1868*** 47.34%*** 52.66%
1864*** 44.95%*** 55.03%
1860*** 29.52%*** 39.65% "

[BurnDoubt]

62. I Agree. Absolutely!

I will Vote for Joe. That's all you need to know. I'm a Life-Long Democrat. True Blue. Stand away from the "Cool"-Aid. We're not in Jr High anymore. This is the Big Time... one chance to get it right.

[lark]

63. I think that if Dems push Biden out, they will take Harris.

Doing anything else is pure suicide and would prove that the people funding Dems are not far off from the traitors funding Rs and just want to ensure more tax breaks and remove all regulations that force businesses to do the right thing.

I really don't think they can push out Biden and Harris!!! Anyone suggesting this would just be trying to destroy us and liberal democracy. Biden should stay but from the media is saying the party doesn't care about the working class or poor - just stupid optics.

[slightlv]

88. While I like Harris, and I especially like that they're now

having her have more face time with the public, I do NOT see running a black woman as president and expecting to win against trump. Come on... WE may have no problem and actually want and encourage it. But it only took ONE black man elected as president and the right went bat crap crazy... leading us to what we have now. Nope... any female right now -- black, white, or polka dotted wouldn't stand a chance against trump. This country just isn't up to the 21st century yet -- we're still stuck in the Dark Ages around here. I wish it were different, but practically speaking, it ain't.

Blast away... but be aware I'd be thrilled to have a female president of any color in my lifetime... and I expect to die before it happens. I also like Harris, tho I'll admit I had some problems with her when she was first running against Joe for prez. I didn't agree with all her legal reasonings from back in CA. But I neither live in CA, nor am I as deep into policing as I used to be in my younger days. I DO like Biden putting her out there as the voice and face of America's women. And, if we didn't have such reactionary religious nuts and misogynistic men who think they know the place every woman and every POC should occupy, perhaps. But that's not where this country is right now.

I'm ridin' with Biden. Take him out... cancel my primary vote... and you may not like what happens down the road from others like me. I'll never vote Republican; and I can't just not vote, not at my age. Too long a track record of voting to screw it up now. But there are ways to make our dissatisfaction known down the line. The Democratic party is going to go the way the Republicans should be going... down the tubes... if they listen only to the centrists and the money people. Third Way did NOT work, and hurt us more in the long run. We are the party of FDR... Biden is acting in the manner of FDR. People ought to be thankful and grateful; not calling for his head. Damn... it just makes me so mad!

[lark]

98. Not blasting, just strongly disagreeing.

I had the same concern initially. Then I started reading Lichtman, who has a system to correctly predict the winner of presidential elections. Right now according to him, Biden is in the lead and is poised to win if a couple of other things fall right. Without him, without the incumbent Democrat running, Democrats will 100% lose. The only way they win is if Harris is the incumbent at election time. Picking anyone other than Harris is suicide and if that's the route, Biden has to step down to let her take over before the election and pray SCOTUS doesnt find a way to fuck him/us up because they will 100% try.

[flying_wahini]

65. Thanks for posting. I wish people here would just trust the process.

[Farmer-Rick]

70. People be crazy and easily manipulated

To give away your encumbancy lead willingly would ensure that party a loss. Doing a bait and switch with Kamala is stupid.

If we wanted to switch in Kamala, it should have been done in 2023. Then you might have had a chance to pass her off as an encumbent. But now.....with 3 months only? It's too late. It's wack a doodle.

But it is the only way Pedo Trump wins. Getting rid of the only guy who has beaten Pedo Trump in a head to head contest is what Trump wants.

[Martin68]

75. Amen. The longer we allow this shilly-shallying bed-wetting, pearl-clutching to continue, the more likely

we will lose the election.

[Cheezoholic]

78. Well at least gently please ;).....

&rco=1

[lees1975]

79. Yes. So can someone in the party tell the naysayers to, uh, ah, be quiet?

[bromeando]

80. Biden

Will do...just mailed a $50 check to his campaign.

[MyMission]

82. Fucked with a chainsaw!

How accurately descriptive!
Everything you shared makes perfect sense to me, and echoes my thoughts.

Without spouting conspiracy theories, the only way the GOPQ can win is to cheat, lie, and portray Biden as unfit, which then causes conflict and chaos in the Democratic party.
Gaslighting and mind control! Engineered and implemented by RW foundations, foreign governments or agents, and corporate interests. Sadly, that seems to be working, although I'm trying to stay positive. I'm feeling or hearing optimistic pessimism and pessimistic optimism. And fear, and anger regarding this situation.

The Democrats who are not coming out in support of President Biden and seem to be against him have lost my respect. Another bad outcome from this situation. Fucked with a chainsaw indeed.

[Beartracks]

83. Maybe Prof. Lichtman could speak at the convention.

===============

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

87. Agreed

[the_liberal_grandpa]

91. Joe Can't Resign From Office Unless....

You want to go without a VP. The 25th amendment section 2 spells out the process and repubs will never confirm a nominee.

[Hekate]

93. Thanks for bringing this here, Deek

[cstanleytech]

97. People need to also keep in mind Russia and China are probably fabricating a number of the anti Biden stories.

The real question people need to ask themselves then is do they want Trump was a train wreck in office and who's now a convicted felon in office or so they want Biden who's done a rather good job and is helping our nation to recover from Republican corruption.

[Mr. Mustard 2023]

99. Yeppers. Also,

when a staffer says Democratic party leadership is meeting to discuss options the media then BLARES:

"Democratic leadership in disarray as they meet to discuss Joe Biden's future!"

If Democratic leadership did not meet to discuss options the headlines would be:

"Tone deaf Democratic leadership unable to take decisive action".

They SHOULD meet and plan, but also be careful and go slowly, which THEY ARE DOING.

Phuck corporate media. Money ruins everything and the corporate media are money grubbing, lazy, unpatriotic ingrates.

Remember, the rules apply only to working Americans, not the oligarchy and this 64 year old white male is sick of money grubbing, back stabbing, untrustworthy ingrates who benefit from this country's system and refuse to help it.

Oh no, they try to profit from America's troubles, and challenges and leave the heavy lifting to Democrats because no Republicon is expected to be a patriot. That costs money.

Once again I say phuck the media and oligarchy.

[BoRaGard]

100. listen listen listen

he's got a point