Lichtman: If Biden bows out of the race, he must CONCURRENTLY RESIGN THE PRESIDENCY

[TasminCat]

and make Kamala Harris the incumbent.

Link to tweet

I agree.

I DON'T WANT BIDEN OUT.

But if he's out ---- he's all the way out. And Harris runs as the incumbent president.

[Scrivener7]

1. That's a pretty random and baseless pronouncement.

[Gore1FL]

27. He is either fit or he isn't.

If he isn't fit, VP Harris needs to take his place. If he is fit enough to remain in office there is no reason for him to not to accept the nomination he has already won.

If Democratic leadership demands we follow the Trump "Sleepy Joe" narrative, then why hold back?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

38. If he's not running he's also a lame duck

And I think this is why no alternatives have been put forth to "replace" him - the replacement will be Harris as President.

But it has to be Biden's choice - I don't think they can use the 25th Amendment and have anything close to a good outcome.

[yourout]

113. I doubt we'll ever see a 25th amendment. Considering Reagan was massively..

Compromised with Alzheimer's for most of his second term and they managed to still roll him out when they had to.

[Polybius]

121. I would say "massively"

He was able to make a pretty good speech at the 1992 Republican Convention, and continued to make appearances in public until 1994, when he announced he had Alzheimer's. He passed away a full decade later, in 2004.

[regnaD kciN]

33. You need to get the context...

Lichtman isn’t a pundit, he’s a professor who has managed to pick the winner almost every time. At this point, his conclusion is that the Democrats win in November, with the key factor being incumbency. If the Democratic nominee is the incumbent president, we win; if not, Trump wins.

I should note, however, that one key variable is that he’s never predicted an election where the “incumbent” was the VP who had only become President three months before the election, so it might not be so clear-cut. Anyway, the one thing that is clear is that, if Biden stays in, he’s likely to win.

[brush]

88. Yeah, a 100-day incumbency is hardly an advantage.

[Tweedy]

108. Outcome based on political science data modeling

Best scenario is we unite behind President Biden because every single one of us knows he is fit for the job.
Indeed, he is uniquely fit for the job right now

The alternative is exactly what is proposed here. We cannot have egos running miniature primaries here. Can you imagine the resultant division?

It is ugly and it is wrong
It makes us look foolish. Independents are watching. We should stick with the fellow who brought us here.

Perhaps educate ourselves about all the excellent things Biden/Harris have done while we are at it. The media certainly is not interested in facts right now.

[D23MIURG23]

120. Lichtman is a Historian and US Presidential Elections Expert.

He has the most successful predictive model for US presidential elections of anybody who has tried. He predicted a Trump win in 2016 when Nate Silver and Princeton Election Consortium had the opposite outcome.

This is the exact opposite of baseless.

[Elessar Zappa]

2. That would be the only reasonable alternative.

[Irish_Dem]

12. I agree, it is the only way to do it that makes sense.

This will cut through all the money and legal issues.

And it needs to be done before the convention.

[speak easy]

89. Signed: LBJ

If Joe drops out it will be because he has decided he has no plausible path to victory, .

[Irish_Dem]

90. I agree, he will do what is best for the American people.

He has been a public servant his entire adult life, he knows the drill.

And he knows politicians eat their young.

[speak easy]

118. ... in 1968 we only had to worry about Nixon

not the end of the Republic.

[QED]

3. Who would become VP if that happens?

I can't see the House going along with any choice for VP. And who would run as the VP nominee with Harris?

[unblock]

15. The veep slot would stay open, making a republican next in line.

[highplainsdem]

24. And if Mike Johnson were to become president, he'd be pressured to name Trump as VP, then resign.

[riversedge]

56. OH, DO NOT EVEN HINT AT THAT HORRIBLE THOUGHT!!

[former9thward]

95. No.

The Senate would have to approve and they would not.

[OneGrassRoot]

43. Geezus. n/t

[rso]

87. RSO

That’s not the case, there’s no role as VP for any Republican.

[unblock]

94. I mean, if Biden were to resign, Harris becomes president, the house refuses to confirm any vice-president

So that should anything happen to Harris, the speaker of the house would become president (Mike Johnson, Republican)

[rso]

96. RSO

In that case you’re correct, but I’m hopeful that we will flip the House.

[unblock]

97. I certainly hope so. But these donors seem hell bent on killing any chance of that....

[Glorfindel]

59. The 25th Amendment provides for a replacement vice president

"Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress."

[Alice B.]

63. But the nomination is the problem, right?

I was listening to Stephanie Miller and they talked about this scenario. I think someone said there was no way a replacement would be confirmed before the election.

[deurbano]

80. Or after. (IMHO.) So no way to break ties in the Senate.

And that has been a critical part of Harris' contribution as VP.

[Polybius]

122. After wouldn't matter if she wins

Let's say Harris runs with Gavin and the ticket wins in November. He's automatically the VP come January 20.

[deurbano]

123. I meant from now until January 20.

I don't know if there will be a chance for her to break a tie in that period, but it's half a year. Of course, having Johnson as her back-up for six months is truly alarming.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/vice-president-harris-breaks-nearly-200-year-old-record-for-senate-tiebreaker-votes-casts-her-32nd

[carpetbagger]

71. And Mike Johnson is going to hold that vote, right? Nt

[deurbano]

76. Even if he held the vote, they have the majority, and have already shredded every norm...

just like when Scalia died.

[Captain Zero]

77. GRASSLEY. GOP won't allow a new vp

So Grassley will be running the Electoral Vote Certification.

Whoever Lichtman is, he is a snake in the grass(ley).

[GreenWave]

79. good point!

[Big Blue Marble]

91. I think it would be Sen. Patty Murray as Pro Temp N/T

[delisen]

101. Lichtman has called every president election winner for decades

He has called 2024 for Biden

[my_best_self]

112. He has not made his prediction for this election cycle

This is not correct. He has said he will make his prediction for this cycle after the DNC in August. He has said that many "keys" would have to fall to create a scenario in which Biden could lose.

[delisen]

114. Thanks for the correction. nt

[FloridaBlues]

99. The new VP would have to be confirmed by house and senate

[Initech]

4. If Biden leaves, Fox and the MAGAs will be shitting on us like there's no tomorrow.

And we can't let that happen.

[NoSheep]

10. they already are. I feel shat upon.

[ms liberty]

30. Yes. From both directions.

[StarryNite]

34. Yes, from both directions and that's the shittiest part about it.

We expect it from the MAGAts but coming from our own is beyond disgusting.

[debm55]

62. Agree.

[TwilightZone]

16. I don't care what Fox and the MAGAs do.

We should never base decisions on how they'll react.

Besides, they're already doing that with Biden, though it would surely take on a more sexist, racist tone should Harris be the nominee.

[sky_masterson]

5. Just to match his keys

The ones he reads like Tarot cards.

[SunsetDreams2]

6. SMH

NOT GONNA HAPPEN, he will finish his term regardless no matter what some people hope.

[Autumn]

7. Is this part of his 13 keys?

I think that is what the Democrats who are calling on him to step down have hoped would happen.

[unblock]

22. The incumbent president being the incumbent party candidate is one of the keys, yes. However,

The only precedent for this happening by resignation is Nixon resigning, and fire then lost to Carter.

So it's not clear Kamala wins the incumbency key under these circumstances.

There's historical basis when a sitting president dies in office, but that's different.

[Autumn]

26. It would certainly give her a boost. nt

[._.]

28. deleted reply

*

[._.]

31. But according to the memo circulating among D "leaders"

It lists four persons that it claims are the ones who could win, and Kamala isn't on that list. It says the following, listed in no ranking order: Mark Kelly, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer.

[Dave says]

41. Damn!

IMO: None of them can beat Trump. Is our Democratic leadership out of their minds?

(They must know something the rest of us don’t.)

[Alice B.]

64. Who are even the first two, again?

I love, love, love Whitmer but throwing Kamala over for her is not even in the ballpark of good looks.

[Sogo]

75. Well, at least Whitmer could neutralize the big assassination attempt drama, by reminding everyone that she

was the target of a kidnap/assassination attempt....

[RobinA]

8. That's A Sure Loss

right there. I surely hope that is not even a consideration. Actually, that's the one thing that might make me not vote. Just, no.

[Elessar Zappa]

23. Not voting is a vote for Trump.

It’s morally equivalent and has the same practical effect.

[yourout]

115. No it's not. It's

no vote at all.
A vote for Trump is a vote for Trump and a vote for Biden is a vote for Biden.
And no vote at all is a vote for no one.

[SunSeeker]

116. If you don't vote to cancel out a Republican vote, then that Trump vote prevails.

That's why when a Dem/progressive doesn't vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, it's a vote for Trump.

[markpkessinger]

125. That is delusional thinking

Look, there is no such thing as a "vote for no one." If you don't vote, or don't cast a vote for president, you are not, in fact, casting a vote for "no one." Under our system, one candidate or the other will win, period. So by not voting you are simply abdicating your own franchise and leaving it up to whichever side is most motivated to win. In this closely divided electorate, in which Democrats must always rely on a large turnout, failing to vote is, in reality, a de facto vote for Trump, irrespective of your mental gymnastics in trying to convince yourself you had no role in the outcome of the election!

[The Unmitigated Gall]

9. Agree, if this is the way it has to go down.

She'll fight like a tiger.

Really sad, though. Biden has been our best president since FDR.

[Bettie]

36. And that is exactly why the donor class doesn't like him

he's moved the needle slightly int the direction of the common folk. Can't have that. Government is supposed to be for the wealthy, not the rabble.

[unblock]

11. While I don't disagree, this is speculation on his part

He has great historical basis for his keys, but it's not clear how his keys should handle this situation because there is no precedent for that scenario. The only time a president resigned was Nixon, and incumbent party lost the next election (Carter vs ford 1976).

How did he address incumbent deaths in office? Did the successor keep the key, and did it matter (I.e., if the redirection would have been correct with out without that key, then we still have no historical basis)

As for the no contest key, if we end up with another nominee under these circumstances, I think we have to count it as a contested primary, even if it happened in a very weird way.

Keys aside, I agree that the only remotely viable alternative is to make Kamala president and immediately and overwhelmingly unite behind her.

[Basso8vb]

13. Another new doom troll

Enjoy your stay

[TasminCat]

17. WHAT ARE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. I SAID I DON'T WANT BIDEN OUT.

[jmbar2]

35. Ignore - you just got trolled but a new poster.

[intheflow]

37. A sleeper from 2016. 😕

[obamanut2012]

93. Like the fifth I have seen today

One was from 2004.

[TasminCat]

20. ARE WE ALLOWED TO POST COMMENTS FROM X OR NOT

[AZSkiffyGeek]

40. Pretty familiar with doom trolls for someone whose only posts were today

Just wake up?

[hatrack]

124. Boris Van Winkle . . .

[obamanut2012]

92. Wait, you have been a member for almost a decade but have 3 posts?

Welcome to DU!

[suegeo]

14. Biden should not bow out of the race. Jesus Christ on a trailer hitch.

Just stop please, I'm not joking.

There is probably a hostile psyop being run on us, possibly Russian. Fuck this bullshit.

This feels similar to the twitter bots, only for "news." Or Cambridge Analytica using data to suppress the African American vote with shitty message.

Wasn't there some God Damn bot farm being run in Russia in the lead up to 2016? Before I even knew what a bot was and how the GOP/Putin fuckery was operating. They are still colluding with our enemies.

[TasminCat]

21. I SAID I DON'T WANT HIM OUT. I SAID I DON'T WANT HIM OUT. DID YOU READ MY POST?

[PortTack]

61. You are so right..a give away, they continue to argue baselessly!

[newdayneeded]

18. this guy changes his story

like the wind directions. just 10 posts down he's talking about how Joe NEEDS to stay in.

[Deek1935]

19. He's right according the Keys, but WILL NEVER FUCKING HAPPEN. And he knows that.

[Doodley]

25. It would boost Kamala's profile, and she hasn't had a lot of media attention. She would be there when interest rates are

finally cut (probably). What a great platform to tout the achievements of this adminstration.

[PhilosopherKing]

45. Yes

First female president would dominate the news in a good way.

[MOMFUDSKI]

29. Biden just can't get out. Hang tough and

tell them all to go to hell. We are not going to eat cake. This is an easy call for Joe

[Happy Hoosier]

32. NO!

Jeebus... it's not enough for these folks to want Biden not to run again. They want to humiliate him by not allowing him to complete his term.

FUCKING NO.

[Rubyshoo]

39. Newbie Question Here:

I read something somewhere saying that if Biden were to resign now, Harris immediately becomes the incumbent President with all the benefits that entails. (Ironic... I know).

And that he could "release" or "give" his delegates over to her. Thus avoiding a floor fight/brokered convention/etc.

Is this correct ?

What would be the implications of an upcoming Democratic Convention with Kamala Harris as the sitting President ?

[Drummer1]

46. Good question, Rubyshoo

[DiamondShark]

117. We will never know.

Biden will stay in the race and not resign as President.

[in2herbs]

42. I may be mistaken, but doing so would only give KH one 4-year term. nt

[carpetbagger]

48. Would not apply... 2 year rule.

"...no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. "

[Mr.Bill]

53. You are mistaken.

She could run for two terms.

[PhilosopherKing]

44. I agree

Kamala as incumbent would be empowering.

[AverageOldGuy]

47. Ridiculous

That is all.

Author's profile:

Account status: Active
Member since: Mon Jul 8, 2024, 05:46 PM
Number of posts, all time: 77
Number of posts, last 90 days: 77

[TasminCat]

50. I said I don't want Biden out. But if he is out, what is wrong with empowering Kamala with the office of the President?

???????????????????????????????????????????????????

[TasminCat]

51. I've been posting on DU for 20 years

[AverageOldGuy]

58. Since 2024

Sure thing.

[TasminCat]

110. since 2002. Since Dan Rather.

[PortTack]

65. How's this...your post is not helpful...can you accept that and stop?

My guess is no…

[TasminCat]

109. I have a right to say what I want and I will

[PhilosopherKing]

49. I agree with this

Making the first woman president would dominate the news in a good way. It would empower Kamala and put to rest the fear some would have to vote for a woman president.

[Aviation Pro]

52. Hmmmm, 79 posts

……

[Bev54]

54. And Kamala would not have a VP because the house is not going to approve of anyone

That makes her a sitting target for the GQP and please don't tell me they would not do it. They would, they want power at all costs.

[calguy]

55. TasminCat's profile info:

Member since: Mon Jul 8, 2024, 05:46 PM
Number of posts, all time: 79

Is it just coincidence that most of these doom and gloom posts are coming from recently created profiles?

Attack of the bots, perhaps?

[duncang]

57. Wouldn't the leader of the House

Last edited Thu Jul 18, 2024, 05:14 PM - Edit history (1)

Automatically become VP if President Biden steps down before the end of his term? If so Johnson would be the deciding vote in the Senate. So not a good idea. Maybe even the worst idea yet.

Edit: I didn’t make it clear on this mangled post so adding this.

The suggestion Biden step down from the presidency before the election it would be a bad idea.

If Biden were to step down as president. VP Harris would be president. That leaves VP open and line of secession means a VP Johnson. Which puts him in the same spot as Pence. What would Johnson do? I think he would breakout the holy water and try to help fake electors.

[rso]

85. RSO

No, there’s no VP role for the Speaker under any circumstances.

[duncang]

100. I goofed up.

House Speaker Johnson would become VP then he could be a deciding vote in the Senate. I knew what I meant just mangled my post.

He could also be in the same position as Pence was. Which way would he go?

Going to edit my post to clarify.

[rso]

86. RSO

No, there’s no VP role for the Speaker under any circumstances.

[jaxexpat]

60. Unnecessary claptrap and another OP on ignore. Where's my torch? I can't find my pitchfork.

[PortTack]

66. Right behind ya!

[claudette]

67. Really?

Can they humiliate Biden any further??? Not being a candidate does not mean give up the job of President. Ridiculous

[liberal N proud]

68. Lyndon Johnson only ran 1 term

He finished his term.

[OldBaldy1701E]

69. If that were to happen...

This country would be faced with the hard fact of just how racist it really is. All the facades would come off. It would not be pretty.

Mark my words. At this point, it is either Biden or insanity. There won't be anything progressive if we don't maintain what is there now. It will be regressive. I don't want that. I hope y'all don't either.

[Miami Blue]

70. I'm with Middle-Class Joe 💪🏻

President Biden will be re-elected this November. Undoubtedly on election day millions of
skeptics will be shocked and awed.


Enough is Enough

[Farmer-Rick]

72. Plan B would guarantee a Pedo Trump win

That's why our right wing corporate media is pushing it so excessively.

Getting rid of the only man who has beaten Pedo Trump in an election is the only way for the Pedo to win. Biden has the encumbent advantage; bad polling is hiding it. So the only path to victory for Pedo Trump is getting rid of Joe.

Willingly rolling over and giving up on an encumbent office holder is suicide for any party.

No mater who the Dems put into that slot, they would never be seen as the encumbent by voters. It would only be a few months and she is not as well respect as Biden is.

The voters would then look to the next most recent office holder as the encumbent. The bait and switch with Kamala, will not ever make voters view her as an encumbent.

They can pass around all the ridiculous lists they want but it will be the end of the Democratic party if they replace Biden.

[ecstatic]

73. yeah. We can't give up the incumbency key

What a crazy year this has been!

[Captain Zero]

74. No because gop won't allow a VP replacement

And Then. Charles Grassley will be running the Electoral Vote Certification on January 6. And he will bend over and grab both ankles for Trump.

[ecstatic]

78. thank goodness for executive orders and official acts.

Congress won't do it's job? Fine. She can install one.

Thank you, scotus!

[dchill]

81. *Ahem. *Cough *cough.*

BIDEN. IS. NOT. GOING. ANYWHERE. B.I.N.G.A!

[Lifeafter70]

82. This has been floated many times

I don't agree with it for many reasons. The top one is there is no guarantee that she will get the nomination.
This infighting only helps the Republicans.
I personally think our party is addressing the age issue incorrectly.
Both top runners are older than a lot of voters are comfortable with. Only one has a platform and prior history of actually doing something for the American middle and working class.
VP Harris is part of that team and would continue with Biden's agenda should something happen.
Trump is just as old and in much worse health so the risk of a president vance is much higher and we should be pointing this out to those who are calling for President Biden to step down.
I don't see an upsided to Biden stepping down this late in the game. I do see a lot of chaos and unnecessary risk of losing to the election.

[brush]

83. Huh? Why must he resign? An incumbency of 100 days for Ms Harris is hardly an advantage...

worth doing.

[fescuerescue]

84. Well it certainly would give Harris a big momentum boost

I think "MUST" is vastly overstating this, but I do think it would give her extra points in November.

Incumbency is very powerful.

[FloridaBlues]

98. If he steps down...The NEW VP would have to be confirmed by the majority of the house and senate

Harris could nominate her VP but confirmation still needs to happen. It says nothing about convention or being chose by delegates at the convention for a new VP. At least that’s the way I’m reading it.
I was just reading about this in the 25 th amendment of the constitution.
Please dems not too late to rally behind Pres Biden.

[karynnj]

102. This is questionable thinking, where he is going from a model that gives a point to incumbancy

However, has anyone run with a very short incumbency? This is NOT LBJ taking office a year before after the tragedy of assassination.

If Biden were to drop his run, he needs to state why. Invoking LBJ again, he dropped out per his speech to concentrate on ending the Vietnam War - which might have happened if Nixon and Kissinger did not persuade South Vietnam that they would get them a better deal. (They didn't and half the names on the wall died after Nixon won.) There is nothing as compelling now. Israel and Hamas will have a ceasefire only when both see it as in their interest. The Knesset just passed a resolution that said there should not be a Palestinian state west of the Jordan. The Biden team has worked hard and creatively to get a ceasefire.

He has spent the last month arguing that he can run and he can win. It doesn't make sense to now to say that he is not just not running, but resigning.

This is already going to be very hard on a proud man, who deserves more credit for what he has done. One possibility is that he could say that the combination of running the country AND running for reelection is clearly exhausting him and making him less successful. He has had an enormous amount of very hard domestic and international problems. That plus the fact that 4 more years would be extremely difficult, so he is making the decision to continue as President, but to allow someone else to run as President ... possibly endorsing Harris.

He has said he wants to finish the job. However, the job is NEVER finished. There is a nice quote about Tikun Olum (repairing the earth in Hebrew) that you do not have to complete the job of seeking social justice, but you need to start it. He certainly has.

[orangecrush]

103. Trashed

[themaguffin]

104. Nah, she's part of the administration, that would be semantics. Plus the GOP will never vote on a VP is Biden resigns

also Biden staying in office would take pressure off of Harris and allow her to focus on the campaign more.

[returnee]

105. Here's the deal:

…imho,
1)Biden should not resign. He’s been a great president, the best of my lifetime, and that’s coming from a 70 y.o. and at times quite radical leftist.
2) We should listen to Alan Lichtman because of his track record and his objectivity. So, if Biden decides for whatever reason to drop out of the race, he should seriously consider resigning the presidency for whatever incumbent advantage we can get.
3) If Biden resigns the presidency, or if he dies before or after the election (and wins), 3a) we have a great VP ready to take over; 3b) we could possibly be without a VP under Harris unless we have a solid majority in both houses of congress. Do you really think the House would vote for whoever would be nominated for VP? I think there’s a good chance they would not, not with Mike Johnson waiting in the wings to assume the presidency if anything should happen to VP Harris (and please don’t even try to tell me that assassination would be in the picture). Good God, I don’t even know how Joe Manchin or Kristen Sinema would vote.

There you have it.
Sincerely,
returnee

[ColinC]

106. That would literally be the only alternative to running

But it shouldn’t be. Our best chances are with him. Also Jesus Christ: the next in line will be Mike Johnson. Let’s not do this, please!

[Hekate]

107. No. That is not how it works

[NowsTheTime]

111. What a mess if Schiff et al force Biden out and we have this VP issue, we deserve a VP!

[Iggo]

119. Hilarious!

[Jarqui]

126. What a bunch of nonsense

One does not automatically mean the other.

[wiseowljedi]

127. Wiseowljedi

My money's on Biden the guy with the best chance to win. Lichtman is right and has picked the last 9 or 10 winners except 2000 and we know what happenened there.

[kansasobama]

128. Lichtman is correct but...

It does not make sense for Harris to become President until Jan 25th. This is trying to pile on Joe and abuse him to the fullest. If you force him out, it is on Dems to make it work. Biden should not step down. Let Pelosi and Clooney work.

If Harris is saddled with Presidency, she will not be able to campaign independently. So, I would say no. Just to satisfy Lichtman's key blindly will not help. Harris is not incumbent POTUS even if she may be technically. Her policies may be different than Biden's as she will be the boss.

[Torchlight]

129. When Ifs and Buts are candies and nuts, GOP will have a merry christmas.

Biden is the Democradtic candidate for the 20224 election. Play as much as you want with Ifs and Buts, as long as we all realize it's just play.