Polls in the battleground states and low approval ratings are why

[kerry-is-my-prez]

People keep on saying they don’t understand why all these top people and experts are not supporting Biden. I’m not an expert and I don’t know for sure but:

Im pretty sure they are looking at the swing state polls (pretty much all of them) and Biden is behind in EVERY swing state and every battleground poll. Your campaign is in trouble if you have been consistently behind in the battleground states AND trending downward little by little. The National polls do not tell the story of who can win in a electoral college system.

In addition no one has ever won the Presidency with such low approval ratings: Carter, HW Bush, Gerald Ford, Donald Trump. I just don’t think that people like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff would be playing games. Also the silence of Obama and others are also telling.

It is because of that, I am questioning things. I have been sending money to Biden-Harris and joined this site during Gore vs. Bush so I am no Republican or Newbie.

We cannot have Trump back in office and I am for whoever can best beat him. Biden or Harris. I think we need to be accepting of Harris if she ends up in there. I would be pissed if it is not Harris, I’ll be honest, and would have to do a lot of thinking about things.

Another thing if Harris gets put in is in there, the Republicans will be totally caught flat-footed


Biden trails Trump in all 7 pivotal battleground states: Poll
Polling finds Trump with considerable leads in major swing states with 4 months until election
Michael Hernandez |
16.07.2024 - Update : 17.07.2024

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-trails-trump-in-all-7-pivotal-battleground-states-poll/3277183

Biden has lost ground in every polled swing state since the survey was last conducted in March, except Arizona where he has continued to lag behind Trump by 7% among registered voters. The president had led in three of the states but has seen his support steadily erode in the past four months.

Battleground polls:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/

Trump Leads Biden in Swing States and National Poll as Biden’s Support Declines
New polling conducted July 15-16 by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation finds former President Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and in a national poll.
In the July 15-16 national poll, 46% of registered voters support Trump, and 42% support Biden; 12% are undecided. There has been a two-point drop in Biden’s support since earlier this month, where 46% supported Trump, and 44% supported Biden. 

-snip-

When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states. 
* Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2% 
* Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
* Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
* Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
* North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
* Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
* Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
* National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %
Since March 2024, Trump has gained one point in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and two points in Arizona, while he has lost a point in Michigan. 
State Results %
% point movement for Biden % point movement for Trump

Biden. Trump
Arizona -2 +2
Georgia -1 +1
Michigan -2 -1
Nevada -1 +1
North Carolina -4 +1
Pennsylvania -1 +1
Wisconsin -2 +1

https://www.270towin.com/news/2024/07/06/electoral-maps-compare-consensus-forecast-polling_1649.html


Approval polls info:
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-less-popular-last-4-presidents-who-failed-win-second-term-185657

[Lovie777]

1. That's an improvement from weeks ago....,

EC

[kerry-is-my-prez]

3. I've been going back and forth with who is best able to win.

[Rebl2]

28. Do you

think you will have a say? Schiff , Pelosi, Schumer, Obama and who knows who else will choose. We the people will have no say who the nominee is. To hell with our votes during the primaries earlier this year. They will take over and throw out our votes. How very republican of them🤬

[pwb]

2. You trying to cheer us up?

Fuck all those polls. Joe wins by 10 points with all of congress. Big change is coming, women will see to it real soon.

[Blueshoewins]

27. Fresh polls

Sorry but a new poll shows the at black woman have drastically decreased their support for Biden.

[pwb]

44. Really, so they support who?

?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

49. They will not support Kamala Harris? That is what most

of us who want a replacement want.

[Butterflylady]

48. Who are trying to kid...

Sorry I do not believe that, but thanks for the laugh.

[cilla4progress]

4. And why the low ratings when

he has accomplished more for the masses than any president since FDR? Steadied the economy, COVID vaccines, NATO...

Preaching to the choir, I know.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

8. I agree he has been great but if he may not be able to win.

This is bigger than 1 person.

[drmeow]

9. Because reporting Biden's successes

doesn't generate enough clicks for the greedy profit driven media companies!

[Big Blue Marble]

11. These swing state voters have forgotten Covid

and mostly do not know what NATO is. All they know how how is their grocery bill and that it
is Biden whom they blame. It is not rational; it never is with low-information voters.

[Self Esteem]

5. Na.

This has nothing to do with polls. Polls have been within the MOE for months between both candidates.

The driver is money. We have evidence of this already:



At the end of the day, these congressional leaders are less worried about the presidency than they are the House and Senate. Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi would absolutely sacrifice the presidency to win back the House and hold the Senate. That's just reality. And the big dollar donors are telling congressional leaders they will not fund these congressional and senate races if they don't come out and demand Biden step aside.

It's really that simple.

[DBoon]

12. "If you back Biden, you will lose our support"

This is a Mafioso talking here.

This is not someone who is concerned about Biden's strength with voters - this is someone who wants an end to Biden's policies.

[Doodley]

31. The polls do not show strength with voters, especially against a candidate as bad as Trump.

[spooky3]

30. I agree that donor $ (and media irresponsibility) are driving the frenzy

But don’t agree that we know that Schumer and Pelosi would make the trade off you describe. Now more than ever, Presidential power is huge—the veto alone would stop most legislation.

[Autumn]

6. I don't care who replaces Joe. That person has my vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Me too.

I just want to win.

[Autumn]

20. We have no choice. We must win.

[Xavier Breath]

21. Winning is all that matters. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Winston Churchill

"It is not enough to do our best. We must do that which is necessary."

[Just_Vote_Dem]

10. So FOUR MONTHS is not enough time to turn it around? n/t

[kerry-is-my-prez]

13. I think something really big would have to happen.

And not to Trump - we’ve already seen that nothing will affect his support.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

16. I'd agree with you if the election was a few weeks away

4 months is an eternity in elections. Many Americans have short memories.

I just don't buy it, YMMV.

[edisdead]

29. But 4 months is enough time to rewrite the ticket?

[Deek1935]

15. Polls don't mean a fucking thing. GOVERNANCE does. This is total fucking INSANITY.

[Emile]

17. Polls bought and paid for by Hedge Fund managers

who can't buy President Biden. They use to own the Republican party, but MAGATS taken over and they have zero influence because of that. So now they been throwing money at the Democrats. I pray Joe stands pat and saves our party.

[triron]

18. Polls are garbage.

[uponit7771]

33. +1, .... the accuracy of the polls is worse than after WWII !! The M$M is paying attention to low MOE, Low model, low ..

... sample rate, untold weighted polls and now we're supposed to trust them enough to have to choose another candidate?

Nah, I'm not even thinking about the public polling cause they've ignore polling science and made it less accurate than after WWII

[doc03]

19. How can he be doing much worse in the swing states than nationally?

Where are all the women's votes we have been hearing about the last couple years?
How can Trump be up 6 points in Pennsylvania, what happened that turned them off?
I can't see how Trump is within 20 points of Biden anywhere.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. There's only a few national polls that show Biden ahead.

Most do not.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden


POLLSTER DATE
TRUMP (R)
BIDEN (D)
SPREAD

RCP Average
6/28 - 7/18
Trump. Biden
47.7 44.7
Trump
+3.0

CBS News
7/16 - 7/18
Trump Biden
52 47
Trump
+5

M. Consult
7/15 - 7/17
Trump Biden
46 42
Trump
+4

Emerson
7/15 - 7/16
Trump Biden
46 42
Trump
+4

Reuters
7/15 - 7/16
Trump Biden
43 41
Trump
+2

Forbes
7/13 - 7/15
Trump Biden
51 49
Trump
+2

NPR/PBS
7/9 - 7/10
Trump Biden
48 50
Biden
+2

Rasmussen
7/7 - 7/11
Trump Biden
49 43
Trump
+6

FOX News
7/7 - 7/10
Trump Biden
49 48
Trump
+1

NBC News
7/7 - 7/9
Trump Biden
45 43
Trump
+2

ABC/WP
7/5 - 7/9
Trump Biden
46 46
Tie

Wall St. Journal
6/29 - 7/2
Trump Biden
48 42
Trump
+6

NYT/Siena
6/28 - 7/2
Trump Biden
49 43
Trump
+6

[lees1975]

25. compare that to Obama's numbers against Romney 2012

They were worse.

[former9thward]

39. Not true.

Obama had a 3.8% lead over Romney in July, 2012.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney

[standingtall]

46. Yeah Obama was leading in July but

On October 30 Romney was leading + 0.8 and Romney lead for most of October. You would be rather be behind now than in October so it is arguable the polls were worst for Obama.

[spooky3]

32. It's hard for women to offset the huge advantage that

Mostly white men give to Trump. We HAVE to confront this problem.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

40. Please elaborate.

[spooky3]

42. Look at the Pew verified voting breakdowns, as a start. Nt

[Frank D. Lincoln]

47. Okay, I understand what you're saying.

Pew Research is packed with solid information.

[bigtree]

24. fuck this con job, Democratic politicians talked those numbers down for weeks

...people need to wake up and demand they respect our votes, or they'll pull this EVERY time from now on.

Now this conning with snapshot polls that are ridiculously inaccurate at this point and completely open to the influence of a campaign.

Tired of people talking our party, our candidate, and our votes down like they own them

No one elected these poeple to talk our candidate out of the race. It's tyranny and people are talking about fucking polls.

[Doodley]

26. Thank you for your reasoned message. I agree.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

35. Thanks! I know I'm sticking my neck out but I know I have to.

I am doing what I can to talk reason to people because I believe that Biden will be replaced and I see a lot of 2016 repeating itself. Trump winning and that CANNOT happen. If I have to stand in the middle of a freeway holding a sign “support Kamala” I may just do that. At the age of 69, I’ve lived a good life…

[Doodley]

38. Beating Trump and fascism is all that matters.

Two-thirds of Democrats tell pollsters they want their candidate to step down. Trump is deeply unpopular, yet Joe is still behind.

If you have two candidates who are unpopular, what is likely to happen if one of those candidates is replaced by somebody who isn't as unpopular? That new candidate will likely open up a lead.

[ImNotGod]

34. don't believe the polls because even toenail fungus would win over tRump. nt

[Polybius]

41. You sure about that?

[jmbar2]

36. This is an Active Measures op

"Active Measures" was widely practiced by Russia. Now being adopted in the west.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA704-1.html

- Multiple conflicted sources of information from multiple channels so no one knows who can be trusted, what is true
- News of polls dominate coming so fast that critiques of methods don't get through
- Aim of Russian Active Measures is to get us to act against our best interests.
- Media is too fractured for effective debunking

No longer a Russian tactic. Adopted broadly
- Polls are commissioned by people with an agenda
- Questions framed to generate news, not true views
- Few people have the qualifications or platform to debunk polling errors. It's complicated

This is an op. Biden/Harris know it. Some members of our party have been sucked in.

[Klarkashton]

37. Let's just beat the bastard no matter who is running.

This can't be happening.

[Bleacher Creature]

43. I'm guessing the internal polling is worse. NT

[kerry-is-my-prez]

45. And there's a memo that went out to Dems that said

Kamala and several other Dems do better agains Trump than Biden. I posted it somewhere but here’s a repeat:

What Dem leaders are reading: Kamala Harris and others do better than Biden

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE READING — This polling memo (h/t JMart) from BlueLabs Analytics is circulating among party officials still keen to convince JOE BIDEN to step aside and prevent his party from suffering what many fear will be a historic loss to DONALD TRUMP.

The topline findings from interviews with over 15,000 voters in seven battleground states:

“Alternative Democratic candidates run ahead of President Biden by an average of three points across the battleground states. Nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President. This includes Vice President [KAMALA] HARRIS who runs better than the President (but behind the average alternative).”
“Some of the gains are coming from winning undecideds and those previously supporting a third party. However, alternative candidates are also pulling votes from Donald Trump. All candidates continue to hold the Democratic base.”

-snip-