Better to "Worship At The Alter of Lichtman" as opposed to shitting one's pants over non-predictive polls 4 months out.

[Deek1935]

The Lichtman 13 keys are based on time-tested rigorous historical analysis retro-applied to 1860 and applied in real time since 1984 and have NEVER been wrong (including in 2000 when Gore, with a proper recount according to many analyses, would have won in Florida and did win the popular vote).

Lichtman is a veteran Harvard-educated political historian. He has NEVER been wrong because the keys address how American presidential elections REALLY work: as up or down votes on the GOVERNING performance of the INCUMBENT and some other BIG-PICTURE factors.

American presidential elections are NOT predicted by polls, debates, age, or punditry. If they had been, at this time in the election cycle the poll lovers would have been screaming that Dewey in 1948, Dukakis in 1988, Romney in 2012, and Hillary in 2016 were all going to win. In fact, on ELECTION DAY in 2016, all the polls and betting markets were predicting a Hillary win. *** I wish the poll lovers would tell us why Hillary lost in 2016 when the polls they adore said she was going to win. i.e. Princeton Polling said she had a 93% probability of winning. ***

In 2020 Senator Susan Collins was supposed to lose, according to the polls. She won.

This past winter Tom Suazzi for the U.S. House was in a dead heat the day before the election according the polls. He won by 8 points.

In France the right wingers were supposed to take over their parliament according to the polls. The center-left coalition won.

Without the incumbency and non-divisive primary keys, we are almost certain to lose to Trump. WITH them, right now we are winning.

Forget polls. Instead, rally behind our incumbent nominee, stop the clusterfuck, and go after Trump.

[Desert grandma]

1. Spot on!

Thanks for posting Deek. I stand with Biden/Harris 10000 percent! We will win in November if we can manage to stand with our nominee.

[Doc Sportello]

2. Lichtman has been right more than any pollster

Yet those who mock the poll doubters have no answer to the fact his methods have been proven to be much more predictive of actual results. I doubt we'll see any (factual) disputing on this thread either.

[Big Blue Marble]

3. As much as you want it to go away, posts like this

are not going to stop the chaos or the disagreement with your position.

The debate ignited a previously simmering discontent in the Party and in the country.
Clearly many want Biden to stay and others want a new an younger candidate. Polls
of the base indicate around 50% for Biden and 50% a younger candidate.
The answer is not clear and time is running short. This not a time for suppression and
it is not time for anger as I see so much of on DU.

We are facing an existential danger and in an old fashion phrase: Everybody is running
around like a chicken with their head cut off.

Start by calming down and and start listening to what each side is saying. Suppressing
desent will only tear the party apart.

[JohnSJ]

5. Since I view Harris and Biden as the same incumbents, and Harris is the likely nominee, I don't

think what happened should alter his model.