CNN Poll: Harris improves on Biden's performance against Trump in early look at new matchup

[BlueCheeseAgain]

Just in from CNN:

Mixed news: The topline number is +3 for Trump (49% for Trump and 46% for Harris), which is an improvement from the +6 in the Biden vs Trump matchup. Importantly, the poll was conducted by re-contacting people from previous polls, so it shows a "real" change in people's minds, as opposed to a different random sample.

Also of note: many more of Dem voters are now saying that their votes are affirmative support for the candidate, and not just votes against the opponent.

CNN — The likely 2024 presidential election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump begins with no clear leader, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection.

Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide to Harris’ 46%, a finding within the poll’s margin of sampling error. That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump.

The survey finds voters widely supportive of both Biden’s decision to step aside and his choice to remain in office through the end of his term. Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are broadly enthusiastic about Harris and willing to coalesce around her as the new presumptive nominee, even as they remain deeply divided on whether Biden’s Democratic successor should seek to continue his policies or chart a new course.

The poll, conducted online July 22 and 23, surveyed registered voters who had previously participated in CNN surveys in April or June, both of which found Trump leading Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup. Checking back in with the same people means that shifts in preferences are more likely to reflect real changes over time and not just statistical noise.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/politics/cnn-poll-kamala-harris-donald-trump/index.html

[WarGamer]

1. it's a good start. Next week we should start seeing swing state polling.

And soon we'll see the Likely Voter screen which will clarify even more.

[uponit7771]

2. 3% MOE, national and RV ... Swing state, LV and 2% MOE are more useful without black vote "weighing"

[BlueCheeseAgain]

4. Agreed. It'll probably take a while for good polling to come out.

But this is a good apples-to-apples comparison for now.

[uponit7771]

6. +1, It might still be tight but down ballot panicking should set in near election day

[Kaleva]

3. As the difference is within the MOE, Kamala could be leading

Or it could be tied or Trump in the lead

[OrlandoDem2]

5. This is amazing improvement in that poll in just a few days.

Go Kamala Go!