VP: I predict it won't be Shapiro

[epreic01]

I am a nobody with no inside knowledge. I just follow politics closely. I think Shapiro is “being considered” and a “front runner” as a sign of respect to Pennsylvania, but I’d be shocked if it was him because:
1.) First term Governor.
2.) Support for Israel. I think Harris will break from Biden on this more as time goes on. It kills us in Michigan.
3.) he hurts us with progressives and doesn’t help with moderates and I don’t think he has a bough experience for people to say, yep he’s ready to be president on day 1.

[iemanja]

1. Possibly

You may be right. I don't know enough about these things to say.

[epreic01]

3. Yeah idk either

But I do know I will act like it’s the smartest decision anyone has ever made no matter who it is.

[TheBlackAdder]

18. I'm leaning towards the Gov of Kentucky -- Andy Beshear

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/22/why-kentucky-gov-andy-beshear-is-and-isnt-the-best-vp-nominee/74473319007/

[LetMyPeopleVote]

2. I do not like vouchers and charter schools

I am not a fan of charter schools and vouchers. We are having a nasty fight in Texas over vouchers including the GOP primarying and defeating some GOP candidates who voted against vouchers

[epreic01]

4. Yeah I'm a public school teacher

Those things are a turn off to me. Not as much as the 2025 Plan for Education, but I do want someone with a better record on education.

[GPV]

27. Ed tech, here. I feel the same way.

[LexVegas]

5. Bookmarking. nt

[Sky Jewels]

6. I sure hope he's rejected.

He’s too divisive and will turn off Gen Z. Plus there’s a school voucher controversy associated with him. Hard pass if it were up to me.

[bigtree]

7. if VP Harris is going to stake out some policy that's further away from Israel's aims

...it would make more sense to have a friend of our ally in the region to balance that out.

[epreic01]

8. I think

I think she’s going to shift slightly or enough to ceasefire to pacify pro Palestine Michiganders. I think they’d see Shapiro as a dog whistle as to what direction they’d go.

[LeftInTX]

9. Yeah. I just looked into that. He has some "baggage", but it's unfortunately due to PA's location

There have been lots of early protests in PA and there has been alot of drama and friction. They also had the University president testify before the House, which put him on the defensive. PA has a much larger Jewish population than CA, MI etc.

FWIW: These red state governors have been much worse. Look what Abbott did to the protestors. Texas can summon all the "youth vote" it wants, but the turnout just isn't high. Shapiro is also young.

[PufPuf23]

14. PA has about the same % of Jews as CA but CA has more than 2X as many Jews.

The only state with more Jews than CA is NY.

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-population-in-the-united-states-by-state

[LeftInTX]

22. OK...It just seemed like more to me.

[PufPuf23]

26. No problem. Checked on what you had posted because did not sound correct about CA vs PA.

CA does not have many religious conservative / Orthodox Jews as NY. That is my personal experience in never knowing an Orthodox Jew on a personal basis but lived under same roof and/or had daily intimacy with Jews for over 50 years of my 70 plus year life.

Don't get why the pro-Israel voices at DU are not more critical of Netanyahu and the needless and hateful violence in Israel. Does not mesh with the Jews I know in real life (who are mostly old).

[LeftInTX]

25. And with the Muslim population in Michigan: I'm a little familar

They're are mostly Arab and they most live close to each other. They also include Arab Christians and Druze. However, many have group think when it comes to Palestinians. Some Christian Arabs side with Israel and have no tolerance for any of that. Middle Easterners tend to be real hot and cold about the issue.

Iranians also can be divided into two groups: "Persians" and Iranians. Those who call themselves Persians side with Israel, have no patience for Hamas and think protesters are crazy. That's because they can never return home again. They lost everything. They're all exiles.
If you see someone on YouTube who calls themselves "Persian", they generally don't support the Islamic Republic. "Persian" is a term they use to distinguish themselves from those who support the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian population lives mostly in Los Angeles. The group that calls themselves Persian are secular. The population of Beverly Hills is 20% Iranian!



Areas in Los Angeles with the highest concentrations of Persians (2015)
Rank Cities Percentage of population of Persian descent[74]
1 Beverly Hills 20.8%
2 West Los Angeles 12.2%
3 Westwood 10.3%
4 Tarzana, Los Angeles 10.3%
5 Woodland Hills, Los Angeles 8.8%
6 Bel Air, Los Angeles 8.8%
7 Century City 8.1%
8 Rancho Palos Verdes 3.7

Andy who is in my signature gif is from Iran. He's Armenian like me. Armenians that I know from Iran can never return home again. Ever. Andy can never return home.

[ZonkerHarris]

10. Sen. Mark Kelly feels right. Put that astronaut up there next to her.

[crimycarny]

12. Lawrence O'Donnell said Biden over performed with white males to win 2020

I feel Mark Kelly would do the same. I can’t think of an insulting nickname Trump could come up for a guy who flew 35 missions In Afghanistan, was an astronaut, and is currently training Ukraine pilots on F16’s. How much more badass can you be?

A Harris/Kelly ticket won’t cater to white males over others in their Administration , but we just need those votes to win the election.

I know that means a special election for Mark Kelly’s senate seat in 2026, but maybe his twin brother steps in? Also an astronaut.

[ZonkerHarris]

13. The Dem Gov appoints an interim and they get to run as Senator.

[pat_k]

24. What a hoot it would be to have Scott Kelly appointed to Mark's seat!

I wonder if he has any interest in politics?

From Wikipedia:
Scott Joseph Kelly (born February 21, 1964) is an American engineer, retired astronaut, and naval aviator. A veteran of four space flights, Kelly commanded the International Space Station (ISS) on Expeditions 26, 45, and 46.

[pat_k]

23. Effective on border security and sensible gun control

I just pray that when 2026 rolls around, we don't lose his seat. (The appointment by Hobbs is just until the next general election, when a special election for the remainder of the term is to be held -- so that's an election for his seat in 2026 and 2028.)

Elevating him to the national stage with his facility on border security and guns could strengthen the democratic message in a way that boosts other Senate seat chances. It would just be a damn shame if we ended up losing the seat.

Veepstakes calculus is never straightforward.

[summer_in_TX]

11. Mark Kelly isn't Jewish himself - but Gabby is.

He's been to Israel twice. So if that ends up being a litmus test, he may or may not meet the cut.

I read an anecdote on here Sunday (I think) from a guy who ate lunch in a bar in Palm Springs that was filled with Republicans. He was there as the news of Biden dropping out hit. The Republicans were furious that he'd endorsed Kamala. The comment that stuck with me was that one guy ranted she'd probably pick Josh Shapiro for VP and that "we need that state!"

Being in Texas I knew nothing much about Josh Shapiro, but I watched a video of a very eloquent speech he gave. A very sharp, articulate guy.

I didn't know about the baggage, and as a retired public school teacher, I strongly oppose public money being spent on private schools.

https://forward.com/news/636147/mark-kelly-vp-pick-gabby-giffords-jewish-israel/

[epreic01]

30. Let's be clear

This isn’t about being anti Jewish. I love Gabby Gifford. I also wouldn’t blame Kelly for going to visit another country. I think with Shapiro his support for Israel feels more aggressive and more Zionist.
And while I think Shapiro rhetoric is too hot for my comfort, I don’t have any data or metrics in front of me. I trust Kamala and Joes team to make the best decision for the campaign and the country. So whomever she picks will be celebrated in this house.

[jg10003]

15. Harris cannot lose PA. and still win the election. Nothing else matters.

I predict it will be Shapiro.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

21. Yep19 Electoral votes - the most of any swing state.

A big get would be Florida which is 30. Florida is just on the verge of being a battleground state. At one point in July, Biden was only 4 points and then 6 points behind Trump. Harris was behind by by 10 in just one poll.

[FBaggins]

29. That assumes the current map

PA is indeed the midpoint as things currently stand. But on that same map, we can’t win without MI/WI. If he helps in PA but hurts in those states… ?

Also - sometimes the point of the pick is to shake up the map. We CAN win without PA if GA/NC/AZ are all in play

[epreic01]

31. If it's him

I will support her decision with enthusiasm. I trust her and her team.
I just worry about the effect he could have on Michigan. I think him being heavily considered is a sign of respect to Pennsylvania.
I’m really not a fan of choosing a running mate to win a state. Most voters don’t want someone in the second most powerful seat to be someone that was put there to win an election. They want someone who is ready to be president on day 1.
It showed a lot of confidence for Biden to choose Harris. I’d like to see someone that isn’t from a must win state.

[JI7]

16. Kills us in Michigan because of Muslim Voters ?

[phoenix_rising]

33. Pete Buttigieg speaks Arabic

It really excited one of my Arab-American friends to learn that, and now she told me she wants to vote for the ticket if Pete is on it!

[TheBlackAdder]

17. There's also something about a staffer who was accused of sexual harassment.

[EllieBC]

19. Michigan?

The state with the town that has a Muslim mayor and city council that banned Pride?

Yeah I’m real concerned about keep homophobes happy.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

20. Penn has 19 EV's and Arizona 11. I don't know if that will make a difference.

[phoenix_rising]

28. Pete Buttigieg is the best choice!

Last edited Wed Jul 31, 2024, 06:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I think Pete is the best, most capable candidate, by far. He is young at 42, and he and Chasten (and their beautiful children) live in MI, a swing state. There is no point risking the loss of a Senate seat in a battleground state. Pete is a devout Christian and knows the Bible better than most preachers. He is as fluent in quoting biblical passages as he is in the many languages he speaks (one of which is Arabic). His fluency in Arabic could appeal to Arab-American voters who have been feeling disenfranchised in current climate. He proudly served as an officer in the navy and was deployed to Afghanistan. His unparalleled talent and his brilliance more than compensate for any perceived lack of experience in winning elections. He is by far the strongest, most capable, most gifted communicator I have ever seen, bar none. His sharp wit, exceptional verbal skills, and thorough understanding of the issues would make him an invaluable addition to the ticket. He shines under immense pressure, keeps his cool under fire, and consistently excels under the toughest conditions. He regularly appears on Fox News, and brings it every time he is on, which has earned him considerable respect, and the well-deserved moniker “Slayer Pete.”

It was legendary the way he decimated JD Vance on Bill Maher, and I think we would all love to see him have the opportunity to shred Vance in person in a debate. I heard Vance list Pete as being childless during his unhinged, childless cat lady diatribe. I would love to see Pete dismantle his vile, sexist, and homophobic rant, exposing his ignorance by mentioning that he and Chasten have two beautiful children. It would be epic!

Millennials and GenZ are mobilized like never before, and they are the most LGBTQ2SIA+ friendly generations in history! Young people are CRAZY for Pete! Pete would ignite the energy and enthusiasm to new heights and set the ticket on fire! 🔥

[onenote]

32. You may be right, but it won't be because he lacks experience.

He's served in various public offices for 19 years, including 6 as attorney general of the state of Pennsylvania. He arguably has more "experience" than many of the names being discussed as possible VP selections.