what is your opinion of the state of the presidency and congress as of 7-25?

[Matthew28]

what is your opinion of the state of the presidency and congress as of 7-25?

My opinion is Harris will likely lead Trump by 3-4 points in the 538 by mid September. I believe she will pull in the demographics necessary and maintain this respectable lead until Election day. The youth vote, black vote and hispanic vote will come home to us enough for us to pull it off.

The rust belt will probably be close so it will come down on rather we get pa or not...I'd choose the governor of that state to enhance our chances. Nevada will be in our column, whereas arizonia and Ga will be within 2-3 points Trump .

~65% chance of winning

I think we'll win the house with around ~220 seats but lose the senate as mt and wva will go republican.

[Matthew28]

1. We will see

I'll update once every couple of weeks with my thinking.

[Matthew28]

2. Seriously,

with some of the polls coming out the past 24 hours maybe Ga will be closer or in toss up range. I find it hard to believe but we will see.

[Matthew28]

3. based on current data

as of 8-2 I'll predict 3.5% popular vote win for Harris. 51-49 seat republican senate and 225 democratic house.

Wis, Michigan and pa are now favored to be harris by about 90%.
Arizona 60%
Ga 50-50

225 democratic house

[Matthew28]

4. /

based on current data

as of 8-15 I'll predict 2.0% popular vote win for Harris. 51-49 seat republican senate and 219 democratic house.

Wis 60%, Michigan 80% and pa 60% are now favored to be harris.
Arizona 50%
Ga 40%

The polls suggest 2-3% below Hillary in 2016 and at least 5-6% below 2020 poll numbers at this point that election. I am still forecasting a small win for Harris but next week will tell the story and she needs at least 2% bump out of it.

[Matthew28]

5. 8-28

Thinking
60% chance of winning for Harris
219 seats for democratic party in the house
80% chance of winning the senate for republicans

Wis = 1-1.5% towards Harris or 60% chance of winning
Michigan = 2% towards Harris or 66% chance of winning
Pa = .5% towards Harris or 55% chance of winning
Nevada = 3% towards Harris or 80% chance of winning
Arizonia = 1% towards Trump or 60% chance of winning
Georgia = .5% towards Trump or 55% chance of winning
NC = 1% towards Trump or 65% chance of winning