13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE (JULY 2024 UPDATE) Lichtman Live #61

[OnDoutside]

Joe Biden dropping out and Kamala Harris taking his place has shaken up the 2024 election. In this episode, Allan Lichtman, the prediction professor, gives an update on his prediction model, The 13 Keys to the White House for the 2024 presidential election of Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump. Note this is not an official prediction, but just where the keys are leaning right now.

[Doc Sportello]

1. 8 to 5 means Kamala is in good shape heading forward

Plus - my opinion - she should get a post-convention bump and the incumbent charisma factor should switch, making it 9 to 4.



Has said he won't make final prediction until after the Democratic convention.

[unblock]

2. I don't see Kamala, while charismatic, meeting the high fdr/jfk-level hurdle for the charisma key

But like the old tv show, 8 is enough!

[Doc Sportello]

3. I would put her above FDR

Of course people loved FDR because he was a master of communicating through the radio. But I don't think he would have come off nearly as well on TV or the internet. I have seen Kamala improve so much in the last few years, which is not a knock but a salute to her getting better in so many areas. She has owned the crowds who have seen her so far with an ability to interact and feed off them while still controlling the narrative. Harder than it looks to do without just going to red meat dishes. There is a symbiotic thing going on with her and the crowds, and it is beautiful to watch.