New FOX News swing state polls:

[Self Esteem]

Michigan 🟦 Harris 49% 🟥 Trump 49%
Minnesota 🟦 Harris 52% 🟥 Trump 46%
Pennsylvania 🟦 Harris 49% 🟥 Trump 49%
Wisconsin 🟥 Trump 50% 🟦 Harris 49%

Link to tweet

[ColinC]

1. She still has some work to do

We’re not going back!!!!

[Self Esteem]

2. Good starting point. I'm hoping the convention, like in 1992, cements her lead and she doesn't look back.

[ColinC]

3. I think she will likely make up a lot of ground before then, and hopefully the convention just propels her far over the

finish line.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

41. With Kennedy in the race, she's ahead in 2 states

Kennedy actually helps her in 2 states, makes no difference in another, and fall behind in another.

Pennsylvania

Harris:
Tie. - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
+2 Harris -7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)


Wisconsin (10 EV)

Harris:
+1 Tr - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
Tie - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)


Minnesota

+6 Harris - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
+6 Harris - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)


Michigan (15 EV)

Harris:

+.3 Harris - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
+2 Tr - 7/22-7/24 - Fox News
(W/Kennedy)

[ColinC]

42. Yeah it's also still very early. But it's not a bad place to start.

[NonPC]

28. Poll Was For Republican Voters

Just kidding

[Bucky]

21. *Ahem* ... We still have work to do

You can phone bank from anywhere in the country.

I'm weighing to see if I can move to a swing state in October & early November to block walk for Kamala

[ColinC]

26. WE still have work to do!

Important correction, thank you!!

[lame54]

40. Don't call, text or knock on my door

[Bucky]

45. Okay. Please PM me your exact address...

... so I'll know where not to knock 😉

[elocs]

37. And as of Saturday it hasn't even been a week yet.

But it has been a week of enthusiasm and hope among Democrats and those on the Left as well as some non-maga Republicans.

[PeaceWave]

4. A great start. But, complacency is our enemy. The other side WILL try to divide us...

Trump and his minions will try to make the entire election all about race. That's always been their modus operandi.

[msongs]

5. news cycle favors dems to the end of convention...trump will try stuff that gives him maximum attention nt

[Think. Again.]

6. Wh would anyone take a foxnews poll seriously?

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. This year, Fox polls have been more in line with polling trends than the NYT polls. Nt

[Think. Again.]

8. I can't for one minute believe...

...that foxnews would ever present anything, ever, that isn't intended to hurt Democrats somehow.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. And yet, the truth is their polls tend to be more favourable to Dems than the NYT polls. Nt

[Think. Again.]

11. That isn't saying much, though. Is a little lie better than a big lie?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Their polls are legit.

Some of the questions Fox has them ask are tendendentious. It doesn't matter as long as the horse race questions are first.

[uponit7771]

23. Is there a source for how legit FAUX Polls are? I agree with being a sceptic of FAUX News anything

[kansasobama]

15. No FOX News is actually higher quality than CNN

As far as polling is concerned.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

13. FOX's polls are actually legitimate, even if their spin on them is not.

They contract with a pair of Dem/GOP pollsters to do their polls: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).

[democrattotheend]

29. Their polls are pretty good

The way they report them is often slanted, but the polls themselves are legit polls with live interviews, done by a reputable Democratic and Republican pollster, and well rated on 538. They don't usually tilt any further right than other news organizations' polls.

[Wounded Bear]

9. I usually say wait a week before believing the polls, so it coming time now...

to pay attention to the trends we are seeing. Positive movement towards the blue is about all we can ask for these days, so improving news.

[everyonematters]

12. Just about zero undecideds. The ground game will win it for the Democrats.

Democrats will get out the early vote. Republican don't do it which means some of them won't make it on election day.

[kansasobama]

14. Ironically speaking, FOX News polls are high quality

FOX News polling is handled by a very good group.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

17. After the sentencing in September, there will be a swing to Kamala's favor.

For Judge Merchan will brief and follow the law. No way is he going to drop the verdict.

[edhopper]

18. Michigan?

Whitmer won by 10 percent, how can it be tied?

Same with PA where Shapiro won by 15%

I don't see how they are so close.

[Iggo]

19. By how much did Biden win those two states?

Harris ain’t runnin’ fer guvnah.

[BannonsLiver]

25. Biden was down in PA and MI before he got out.

These results are an improvement over previous surveys.

[Johonny]

30. Turn out is very important

As is the economy heading into the fall.

[SocialDemocrat61]

20. How is Minnesota a swing state?

They haven’t voted for a republican for president since Nixon over 50 years ago.

[Bucky]

22. Minnesota polls were tied up just a week ago

In 2016 Clinton only won the state by 46.4% to 44.9%, a 1.5% difference.

We should never underestimate how destructive and divisive... and how seductive... appeals to hate and resentment can be.

Republicans sure haven't

[Self Esteem]

34. The problem in 2016 wasn't Trump overperforming but rather third party candidates taking away from Hillary.

In the last three presidential elections, here's the percentage won by the GOP nominee in Minnesota:

2012: 45%
2016: 45%
2020: 45%

My guess is that Trump probably wins 45%. If Minnesota is close it'll be due to third party candidates.

[Bucky]

46. I've never believed in the "we was ROBBED by 3rd parties" excuse

Sorry, but if we did our jobs right, 3rd parties wouldn't win over the margins of victory from us.

No voter owes their vote to the Democratic Party. It's our jobs as loyal partisans to earn the votes of the general electorate. If another party outhustles us, well that's just how democracy works.

I'm a Democrat, but I'm a democrat ahead of that.

[Self Esteem]

54. You're arguing about something I never said.

I never once said Hillary was robbed. Never said anything remotely about it. I did point out that Minnesota was closer than it's been in the most recent election cycles because third party candidates did much better there than we've seen - not that Trump somehow expanded typical GOP support. That's all.

[Bucky]

56. Then I apologize

Perhaps I misunderstood what you meant by "but rather third party candidates taking away from Hillary." From the context I thought you meant votes

[Self Esteem]

57. I did.

They did take away from Hillary. That's a fact based on what we know from previous elections. That doesn't mean there wasn't reasons for those voters, who likely voted Obama in 2012 and Biden in 2020, not voting Hillary. But those third party candidates did take votes from Hillary.

[Celerity]

44. One of the little discussed (here, due to the terms laid down) but crucial components

in terms of Biden dropping out was the expansion (via both public and internal polling) of seriously at-risk states to include NH, NM, MN, VA, and even CO and NE-2 towards the end. That is on top of being consistently down, for months, in the core swing states of AZ, GA, WI, MI, PA, NV, and (the only real remotely flippable chance from Red to Blue) NC.

Do not forget that Minnesota was pretty damn close in 2016. It was one of only two states I missed on the EC map. I had it going Red (following the rest of the Midwest collapse) and FL going Blue (will not make that mistake again, did not in 2020, and certainly do not see it going Blue this time either, unfortunately).

[Bucky]

47. For me, the turning point was when NJ came down to 1% difference

If Jersey ever becomes a swing state, we're "screwn" (remember that?)

Things are getting set back to normal now. My blood pressure is back to sane levels. But our Titanic was cruising toward an iceberg for a couple of months there. It was an important history lesson for all of us.

[Celerity]

48. Good catch! I forgot to list NJ. I think even ME was starting to slide (not to the same point as the others, but still)

[NickB79]

55. We lost the Iron Range union vote to the GOP

Northern Minnesota was once reliably blue thanks to unions working the taconite mines. That's gone now. And rural Minnesota is far more red now, where 50 yr ago farmers like my grandfather were Democrats.

All the major cities are still blue, but our margin of victory has been eroding lately.

[uponit7771]

24. Is there a link to polling internals? I don't trust FAUX News about anything ... nothing good or bad ... nothing

[ancianita]

27. Not believing these. The same wall of poll hype Biden faced, & they'll try to confound public perception with these.

[Trekologer]

31. Even if you are suspicious about the percentages the trend is favorable

In less than a week Harris has managed to reverse Biden’s slide. If the trends continue…

[ancianita]

43. Yes, there's a silver lining playbook factor in corporate media polls.

"Trends" are a whole other kind of narrative used by corporate media, and that's for another discussion.

[Sky Jewels]

35. These are significant improvements from Biden's numbers.

After less than a week!

Stuart Rothenberg was surprised and encouraged by how quickly this has happened. He thought it would take another week or two for the polls to reflect improvement.

She's going to gain momentum and pass Trump soon. The narrative will change. She'll be the frontrunner, and then the Inevitable Loser Stink will settle on Trump, and he'll be done.

[RainCaster]

32. I'm so tired of "swing states" getting all the love

Let's do away with the Electoral College and then the press can treat all of us voters the same.

[Bucky]

50. Do you know how to "get rid of" the electoral college?

Sorry, but that's just not a constructive suggestion.

In a "Best of All Possible Worlds" universe, then yes, a popular vote system would be more just. But we don't live there and the obstacles to getting there are effectively insurmountable. ☹️

[BComplex]

52. I'm with you, RainCaster! I'd LOVE to see us amend the constitution to get rid of the Electoral College.

But I'm afraid we're a long way from getting that done. It's just too big of an ask with the country so split up.

[RainCaster]

53. Don't give up! Who ever thought we'd have a black POTUS?

I'm thinking positively about this. It will happen sooner than we think.

[Johnny2X2X]

33. Much better!

Had dinner with a very conservative friend tonight. He is not counting for Trump. He usually has a pretty good reason things from a conservative perspective.

He thinks Harris is going to win in a landslide. And he really doesn’t like her.

[Rubyshoo]

36. Thank You - K & R !!!

[Deek1935]

38. More completely meaningless polls except to show what the previous ones did. A close race. Poll obsession is POINTLESS.

[a kennedy]

39. and Wisconsin...what the hell is wrong with Wisconsin.....

Not for long…..K A M A L A Is going to kick arse in Wisconsin…..it’s only July 26th. Gonna kick arse in November.

[LAS14]

49. Well, this is cheerful! Thanks for the post. nt

[republianmushroom]

51. Looking good