My EV map: The chances of this are not 0.

[ColinC]

[Ranting Randy]

1. The harder we work, the luckier we'll get

[MaryMagdaline]

101. Funny that way

[awesomerwb1]

2. Is lower than zero possible? nt

[ColinC]

4. No.

[Renew Deal]

110. lol

[CanonRay]

3. I hope I live to see Texas blue.

[leftieNanner]

30. Me too

Let's hope they boot Teddy this time.

[livetohike]

37. Put Beto O'Rourke on the ticket and take it from

there 🙂.

[Polybius]

40. I love Beto

I wish he didn't live in such a Red state so he could get elected. I know he got elected locally, but not statewide.

[livetohike]

43. Me too. He would still be in the House if he didn't run for the Senate.

I hope VP Harris finds a spot for him in her administration.

[TexasBushwhacker]

92. He would be great in anything involving the "war on drugs"

It's an insue that he really cares about. He even co-wrote a book about it - "Dealing Death and Drugs - The Big Business of Dope in the US and Mexico".

[tritsofme]

46. Uh...not sure why you think that? The guy has never won a statewide election in Texas, he doesn't help at all

And thankfully isn’t under any type of consideration.

[livetohike]

73. He was in Congress for four years. Trump never won a state wide

election or any other election so it obviously can happen. I like his energy and enthusiasm.

[Initech]

76. We have to de-Fox Texas on every single level.

Fox News has an iron grip on Texas and I don't see them loosening it any time soon. We have to vote all of their candidates out at every single level.

[flying_wahini]

102. Texan here. Don't hold your breath.

All my hope dried up after Beto lost. Still plugging away at it, tho.

[Girard442]

5. In the immortal words of Han Solo:

Don't get cocky, kid!

[ColinC]

7. Not cocky, just a reminder of what is actually possible if we put in the work.

[onenote]

81. "actually possible"? No. Winning all of those states is not "actually possible."

[ColinC]

83. It is. That's literally what democracy is: the possibility for change.

Most republicans said the same thing in 2016 about Trump winning the blue wall states. Trump campaigned there and was mostly called delusional for doing it until lo and behind, they won. I see 2024 as a year where we see one of the staunchest backlashes against Trumpism and their extremism than any other time. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong -that’s fine. But if I’m right, I’ll be sure to come back here and rub it in after election day

[onenote]

84. You say that 538 gives this a .02 percent of happening. What percent do they give of Trump getting 400+ EVs?

[ColinC]

85. I think it was around the same or more.

But they took it down since so we will see what the new projections have in store for us -since that was for Biden not Harris.

[ColinC]

89. Apparently both scenarios for each candidate (+400)are fairly likely 🤔

Check it out for yourself -I guess it’s still up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#electoral-college-probability

[brooklynite]

99. The "blue wall States" were know. To be battleground States...

Explain Idaho, Indiana and. North Dakota

[ColinC]

100. No.in 2016 They were not actually seen as battleground states. Obama won them twice with more than 10 points

And Clinton was consistently polling at above 10-15 points until the end

[valleyrogue]

6. In what universe does Idaho turn blue?

We will be okay of we retain the states we won in 2020.

[ColinC]

8. Maybe this one if the stars align correctly

[valleyrogue]

10. If Idaho turns blue, the entire EC map will be blue.

Idaho is the most right-wing state in the country, bar none.

[Celerity]

90. 2020 results, from highest % of Dump votes for States he won , down to the highest % he won but lost the State (GA)

Nebraska and Maine split their EVs

[BComplex]

27. Idaho doesn't even allow the sky to turn blue, unless it signs a contract to be subversive.

Idaho is so beautiful physically, to be so ugly spiritually.

[D_Master81]

9. Indiana ain't going blue

Love the optimism, but Indiana has gone blue once in 60 years and that was because of the huge vote from the Chicago suburbs for Obama. Just get to 270, we aren’t winning the south anytime soon.

[ColinC]

15. ""Ginormous votes from suburbs for..." is all we need to get this map the colors it is

I think that with enough hard work, we can see this happen. 🤞

[Tribetime]

11. I want some of what's your smoking 😜 just kidding

[ColinC]

12. Hopium in moderation, can be a good thing.

But perhaps there is actual hope? 🤔

[BComplex]

29. That's now my new favorite drug: hopium! If we can turn purple BLUE, we're in business!

Thanks, ColinC! I love it.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Actual odds of this result:

?si=RqtU5e3R9_uK4D4A

[ColinC]

18. Less than zero is not possible. I think even 538 had this at around a 1/250 or 500 chance or so

…for Biden

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. it's not going to happen

We'll be lucky to keep the Biden 2020 swing states and flip NC.

[onandup]

14. Why not just make them all blue?

[ColinC]

19. That would be a zero chance. Mine is about as close to zero as you can get though.

[Polybius]

39. KY & KS Red but not MS. AL, & ID?

They are further right than those two.

[former9thward]

16. What didn't you just make the map 538 Blue and 0 Red?

The chances are exactly the same as the one you posted.

[ColinC]

21. Nah. Those chances would be zero. Close to zero and zero are not the same things.

[TwilightZone]

75. There is no fundamental difference in what you posted and 538-0.

One is not more likely to happen than the other. The chances are zero.

[ColinC]

78. I disagree. To be clear though: if the election were today, I completely agree.

I see no possibility of this happening if the election were today or even this week. I simply see a large potential in the fundamental dynamics of the race shifting towards Kamala so dramatically that we get something like this in the end.

Polling trends -if they keep up, do suggest this is not an impossibility (Kamala went from a net 10 point negative favorability to a net positive favorability in one week since she declared)

[BlueTsunami2018]

17. No, not zero but damn close to it.

The Deep South? Texas? Florida? South Carolina? Indiana? Ohio?

I don’t see any of that. We have to win the Blue Wall states and we’ll be fine.

[ColinC]

23. Damn near close is right. Although there is a huge potential with the enthusiasm Harris has generated....

So we’ll see!

[wordstroken]

55. Deep red SW Florida here

Seeing good things happening that keeps ratcheting up our hopium.

[ColinC]

56. The chances increase the more people canvass and make calls

I imagine that will happen a lot more as we get closer to November.

[wordstroken]

72. Absolutely!!

[jcgoldie]

22. SC AL MS... yeah ZERO

optimism is good but...

[yardwork]

24. No. MS, AL, and LA are not voting Democratic.

Neither is TX, ID, MT, ND, IN, or OH.

I will be very very surprised if FL turns blue.

[DeepWinter]

25. Dude

There's zero chance of that. I just spent a week in Montana and nothing but Trump and general Republican signs. I live in North Dakota and it's as red as red gets outside of Bismarck and Fargo. Even in those two cities it's barely blue.

Harris cheerleaders are screaming a Blue Wave, but every serious analyst I've read this week still has it a very tight race. Never ever under estimate your opponent.

[WarGamer]

26. keep the faith... lol

[democrattotheend]

28. LOL, no way

It's nice to dream but this will never happen. Kamala may get north of 45% in some of the deep south states you have as blue, but she will never win them. Obama knew this: on paper, Mississippi was close-ish, I think he got 45% in 2008. But he didn't even try to win that state because he knew that he couldn't get quite enough of the white vote to have a chance there.

I haven't seen Indiana really discussed as winnable for Kamala, but that might be worth looking at. Obama did win it in 2008. But even Ohio isn't considered winnable for Democrats anymore, and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have gotten harder than they used to be.

I do think North Carolina and Georgia are potentially winnable, and maybe Florida, although the Republicans have been running that state for decades and it feels like it's been slipping away.

[Arne]

31. Every day he shoots himself in the foot.

More people wake up.
It's a snowball in hell effect.

[ColinC]

33. Exactly. The dominos can seriously fall quite quickly if this keeps up

[SWBTATTReg]

54. Yes, people will realize that tRUMPism has failed, its messages of division, strife, and hate isn't the message

that voters want to hear.

[Celerity]

32. Maximal Dem EC Map (100 point margin).

[Tribetime]

35. I like that map looks about right

[ColinC]

45. That's if Biden stayed in the race. I see the map expanding

Maybe.

[Celerity]

47. No, that is with Harris, and it is, as I said, maximal. If Biden had stayed in, my actual (atm, subject to change)

EC map would not be nearly as optimistic.

you said

I see the map expanding

Based off my map , what states are we going to 'expand' in and win?

FL? In am not at all holding my breath on that happening. So so many MAGAts have poured in over the past 8 years, as well as non Cuban RW Latinos.

TX?

Not happening at all IMHO.

What other states are left for us to flip from Red to Blue?

Maybe, maybe (but doubtful) Maine's 2nd district.

[ColinC]

48. Just wait and you'll see what they are.

Maybe none. Maybe a lot. I see a lot, but we are just getting started. Your map was maximal for Biden. My map is maximal for Harris. Let’s wait till November and we can see who is right -or closest to being right

[Celerity]

68. As I already stated, my map is maximal for Harris, not Biden.

you said

Your map was maximal for Biden. My map is maximal for Harris.

No, my map, I repeat, is (and was) maximal for Harris.

I did not post a Biden map, as Biden dropped out.

Your map:



is extraordinarily unlikely.

You have Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina going Blue, and not just Blue, but more likely to go Blue than Illinois, and the same chance of turning Blue as Colorado and Minnesota.

This is not a 'let's reverse the Deep South Civil War traitor states and make them good actors in terms of voting in 2024' alternative history game, or least I am not approaching it as such.

[ColinC]

71. Correction: I think your map is maximal for Biden. But I see a lot more potential for Harris.

We only saw a glimpse of the enthusiasm and momentum that Harris brought to the table and she’s already shifted polls in Dem’s favor by more than ten points on many levels (not least of which was her favorability) in just ONE WEEK.

If she plays her cards right, this can be a blowout. There is no fundamental indication of this yet, but I don’t want anybody to have a heart attack if on election night, the Deep South starts trickling in leaning towards Harris.

I want people to acknowledge this as a possibility for the slim chance it actually happens. Cause I believe it might. That’s all.

While I respect anybody who says it won’t, I humbly disagree.

[Celerity]

80. My maximal map for Biden would have had less Blue, at least atm. My maximal map is also for the final results, posted

months in advance. It is not a 'state of the race at this very moment' map. It is the best possible outcome for Harris that I feel we can realistically achieve at the end of the day. I hope I am wrong on FL and maybe ME-2, but I do not think I am.

Your 'Deep South is all going for Harris' map is simply not remotely realistic. It is not going to happen, and I I very, very rarely make absolute statements like that, but here we are.

[ColinC]

93. I don't disagree that it is highly unlikely

Impossible, however, is far from the case. We are a week into Harris’ presidency and have only a glimpse of the general appeal she has. Give it a few more weeks before we completely write her potential for that kind of massive appeal off.

[LostOne4Ever]

61. I can definitely see your map being possible

I hope it happens!

[ZonkerHarris]

64. id love to put FL in play.

[Celerity]

70. So would I, but demographic trends there are massively against us. MAGAts and RW (and I speak of non RW Cubans) Latinos

have been pouring in for years. Cubans now only make of 27, 28 per cent of FL Latinos, and so many of the newer, non Cuban FL Latino immigrants are RWers from South and Central America, they types who are rabidly anti LW.

[BluesRunTheGame]

34. Well, that'd be fun.

I’d be plenty happy just winning but a blowout should be okay too.

[Polybius]

36. Lol

Idaho!

[DFab420]

38. Unhelpful fantasy. Stuff like this is dangerous.

This is the sort of behavior that got Trump elected in the first place. We need to be spending time focused on the real world.

[honest.abe]

41. I'm super opimistic but that's not going to happen.

Best case scenario is Celerity's map plus Florida and Ohio.

[mvd]

96. With a slim chance of IA and TX

States like ID and AL are close to impossible. But the map can give Harris a very solid win.

[Indykatie]

42. Sorry But the Chances of That EV Map is Zero. n/t

[ColinC]

51. I think 538 had the chances of this map or better at around .02% WITH Biden. I will update you when they have their new

Projections up.

[GreenWave]

44. If'n it turns out as depicted the few remaining red states can be squeezed like a boil.

Disgusting I know, but they will need an intervention of some sort.

[Bucky]

49. I love you, but you might wanna calm down

A fella can dream, of course. But have you volunteered for a phone bank yet?

[ColinC]

50. That is the most important question -and no. Not yet. I do plan some NH canvasses in the near future tho

[Bucky]

52. Except for Nevada & Colorado, you just drew a blue line around the border & filled it in red

From now on, Republicans should be colored orange

[ColinC]

53. That is literally all I did. So no. I don't expect anybody to take this seriously. Unless it happens!

Then I will expect to be lauded greatly for my coloring skills. 😂

[Bucky]

57. It's cute. We're the Indians and they're the circled wagon train

We're defending the homeland and they're bringing in small pox.

[ColinC]

58. ...

But wouldn’t it be hilarious if this is how it actually turned out?

[TommyT139]

59. One of Joe's favorite words: Possibility!

I do worry, though, about the states that have installed insurrectionists into their voting administrations.

But for now, this map is something to work towards.

[LostOne4Ever]

60. The odds of that is ZERO

The odds of Texas (where I live) going blue is absolutely ZERO.

The odds of LA, MS, AL, SC going blue are also Zero.

The odds of ID, MT, and FL going blue is close to zero.

The only way you can get your EV map to not be zero is if you ignore what margin of error means and pretend there is any chance of this happening.

[ColinC]

63. Fwiw 538 put it at about .02% with Biden in the race. We will see what they say about it when they update projections

[LostOne4Ever]

65. That is what I meant by ignoring the margin of error

The only way to get a non-zero score for this (even using data from when Biden was running)can only be due to polling errors.

It is Zero percent.

[ColinC]

66. Oh for sure no polling right now suggests this. I don't expect that massive of a polling error either

I do however, think we shouldn’t be surprised if this race busts entirely in our favor over the next few months. If we see a map like mine, the possibility will probably be clear at least a month or so before the election.

[LostOne4Ever]

67. I can agree with that

But my past experiences with Elections have led me to be EXTREMELY wary of such optimism. Every time I get my hopes up for such an event, the opposite happens. Whereas when I was scared we were going to lose we do well.

You do what makes you happy. I am just going to hold out hope that Kamala wins by whatever margin possible.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

62. Texas is a battleground state

Link to tweet

[LudwigPastorius]

69. Louisiana...blue?

The same state that has a total abortion ban, and that just made anyone in possession of mifepristone and misoprostol without a prescription subject to a ten year jail sentence?

I really don't think so.

[Initech]

77. Lousiana had a democratic governor until Fox News appointed Jeff Landry.

[onenote]

86. And before that they had a republican governor-- remember Bobby Jindal?

More relevant: there have been 19 presidential elections starting with 1948. Louisiana has given a Democrat a majority of its votes 4 times. In the six elections starting 2000, the Democratic candidate has averaged barely 41%.

[ColinC]

114. Looks like they are due for another then 🤔

[TwilightZone]

74. The chances of that are, in fact, zero.

There is quite literally zero chance of winning states like Mississippi and Alabama.

There's optimism and then there's fantasy. This is the latter.

[ColinC]

79. Well. You're probably right, but I will not hesitate to rub it in your face after election day, if we do somehow win

Those states this year.

[onenote]

87. Will you mind if some folks rub it in your face when we don't win those states?

[ColinC]

91. It would be a strange thing to do since I've conceded we probably won't win them.

On the other hand many are saying there is absolutely no chance whatsoever it can happen.

[Polybius]

103. I've already bookmarked

Expect a visit here in November.

[ColinC]

104. I mean. We won't win those states so I'll be happy to concede when we don't. BUT IF WE DO....

[Polybius]

105. If we do, I'll still be back

I will put you on worship mode.

[ColinC]

106. More or less it should be for my coloring book skills than anything else.

[duncang]

82. I like your thinking.

Hoping for the best. I’d like to see a budge blue in all states. It would tell me we are swinging back to sanity as a nation.

[Patton French]

88. Hope springs eternal.

But seriously, zero, zilch.

[GaYellowDawg]

94. Yes, the chances of that map absolutely are 0.

Chance of Alabama going blue? ZERO. Republicans had a pedophile - Roy Moore - running for the Senate and he kept it close. Then they elected a coach who is a low-information dumb shit in a landslide because he's Republican. It is IMPOSSIBLE to take Alabama.

Chances of Mississippi going blue? ZERO. They might have elected the pedo.

Chances of Louisiana going blue? ZERO. This is a state full of dumbass Cajuns who look up to Duck Dynasty morons.

Chances of Indiana going blue? ZERO. They elected Mike Pence as governor, FFS.

Chances of Texas going blue? ZERO. They re-elected Ted Cruz over Beto O'Rourke. A state that does that is never turning blue.

Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota are basically Kansas with better scenery. Chances of those states going blue? ZERO.

[lees1975]

95. Missouri and Iowa are already closer than any of those southern or upper western states.

Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina, no. Georgia, yes, a real chance there and North Carolina. Idaho, no, North Dakota, no but Montana is possible.

Texas Democrats have a potential pool of unregistered voters who could make the difference. If you want to see a war, let Harris carry Texas and there will be heads exploding as state officials refuse to certify and go to prison as a result.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

97. Debunking the Republican Latino voter myth. Y'all, Texas is in play! Here's why...

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

98. They'd as close to 0 as you can get.

[ColinC]

107. Agreed.

[Arthur_Frain]

108. This is a pipe dream

What you smokin’?

[ColinC]

112. Hopium

[brooklynite]

109. "Hey gang; let's put on a show" works in the movies...

“Hey gang, let’s organize a Democratic win in a State that hasn’t gone Blue since the early 60’s” doesn’t work in politics.

[ColinC]

111. It worked in Virginia and Indiana pretty damn well(circa 2008)

[ColinC]

113. Also it isn't just about winning states. The last time a party won re election when their incumbent stepped aside?

More than 100 years ago. So either the fundamentals of this race have completely shifted and the prior rules and expectations will likely not apply, or we are stuck with the same old dynamics of yesteryear and preparing for another harrowing loss based on historical precedent. The point of this OP is that I’m counting on it to be the former…