The good news for Florida - will be Tropical Storm Debby - Update now hurricane at landfall

[malaise]

Won’t be a hurricane




WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast
of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south
of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern
coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card
Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north
of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to
Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to
Aripeka


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[Ligyron]

1. That model has it exiting the mainland on the Ga/SC border.

Back into the Atlantic off to who knows where?

[malaise]

2. I noticed that

The season is just warming up

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

3. Probably be a lot of flooding.

[malaise]

53. Looks like you're right

[bahboo]

4. heading to KW in November....better now than then....

[RussBLib]

5. Tropical storms can be quite destructive

...not much difference between a Cat 1 and a tropical storm.

https://russblib.blogspot.com/?m=1

[malaise]

6. True but I'll take a TS over a hurricane every way of the week

This one should be about 50mph. Rain will be the issue

[allegorical oracle]

9. Same here. The cone's east turn goes about over my house. This storm's name is

ironic. In 2012, a TS Debby went over the same area of Florida. A couple of major roads stayed flooded and closed for months. One small town was under about 8-10 ft of water for many days.

Have two hopes: that this earliest storm doesn't set up a "training" effect that will take later storms on the same route, and that the wind stays tolerably quiet -- I have a driveway lined in trees. And am not handy with a chainsaw.

[malaise]

10. Well let's hope

lightning does not strike the same place twice.
Stay safe

[malaise]

25. Looks like serious flooding will be the major issue here

https://cbs12.com/news/local/gov-ron-desantis-issues-a-state-of-emergency-for-54-florida-counties-florida-august-1-2024

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (CBS12) — Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency due to severe weather conditions.

According to DeSantis' office, a total of 54 counties are under a state of emergency. Palm Beach County was not listed.

[allegorical oracle]

50. You're so nice. Thx. I'm high and dry in an area known as an "uplift". No floods, but tornadoes

scare me.

Happy that you brought up DeSantis. He didn't declare an emergency for 13 Fla counties. Miami-Dade, Broward ...and Palm Beach (guess who lives there). Others are tucked somewhat safely in the mid-state areas.

Problem is, DeSantis is SO inept and his staff is SO inept, it could've been accidental. But he made sure Collier County was included -- the home territory of Sean Hannity and Rick Scott. So one would've though PBeach would've been included.

(After the fact, counties can be added by FEMA for assistance, tho.)

Malaise, you're a treasure....

[malaise]

51. Thanks

This looks like a watery mess for Florida. Stay safe
Nothing you post about DeathSentence is a surprise.

[Sane1]

7. Somebody Call Walt Nauta!

Somebody should call Walt Nauta and tell him to get out the tarps to protect them boxes!

[malaise]

8. LOL

I think you’ll need a sharpie first to get Mar a Lardo in this cone 😀

[mitch96]

11. Yup, the sharpie weather predictor will move it away....nt

[malaise]

40. He might need to

More waves coming

[malaise]

54. Did you call him

Looks like serious rain across the state

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

12. More good news: it misses Jamaica completely.

Enjoy the calm weather.

[malaise]

26. We got some needed rain

😀

[orthoclad]

13. Hoping there's no rapid intensification

I think the Gulf is pretty warm.

How's the wind shear?

[malaise]

14. Might have happened if it moves across to the Western Gulf but not enough time

Could get close to Cat1 but not much more for Florida this time.

[orthoclad]

15. Lotta warm shallow water between Cuba and Tampa Bay

I hope it stays mild and churns the water surface good, mixing that top stratum. It will just miss the peak hot water.

[malaise]

16. That's a lot of hot water

Damn

[orthoclad]

17. Look at the Persian Gulf and Red Sea

The heat index/wet bulb temp is likely killing people.

[malaise]

18. Humans have assumed dominion over

our own extinction.

[orthoclad]

19. Humans did OK until

industrialism and capitalism.
The few at the top have done this, since the coal-fired steam engine powered profits.

[malaise]

20. Yep

What a mess

[orthoclad]

21. Knowing the source makes it fixable

If we take the enormous, bloated profit out of the equation, then we don't need to spew so much filth.



How much does that bottom 50 contribute to our problems, do you think? Compared to the massive consumption/wealth of the top percentages?

"Enough is a feast". We could be secure but not bloated in our housing and food and medicine.

(apologies if I've hijacked the thread, but I do believe I'm addressing a root cause of hurricanes.)

[malaise]

22. You did not hijack the thread

Climate change is real

[orthoclad]

23. And fixable.

[orthoclad]

47. Forecast to hurricane landfall now,

with storm surge up to 7 ft in the bay.

[malaise]

48. You were right

Stay safe everyone.

[orthoclad]

49. WATCH THAT STORM SURGE!

Seven feet is significant. Storm surge kills.

NWS site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/214546.shtml?peakSurge#contents

[malaise]

27. Looks like the drift to the West gives it time

To strengthen slightly.

[orthoclad]

35. Fingers crossed

[malaise]

39. There is ow a hurricane watch in the Panhandle

[orthoclad]

43. Crossing over hot water that

could lead to bombogenesis, spinning up rapidly in a short time. Maybe wind shear will keep that down.

The coastline there is conducive to storm surge. The shape of the bay will help the right-hand side of the storm to blow water north and be trapped at the peak of the bay.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bend_(Florida)

Due to the width of the adjacent continental shelf (over 150 kilometers (93 mi)), low gradient slope of the coast (1:5000), and shelter from the usual wind direction of storms, the Big Bend Coast is generally subject to low wave energy, but it is subject to storm surges.[8][9][10][11]

[kerry-is-my-prez]

24. Florida doesn't usually get hit until late Sep.-Oct

The Gulf water is warmer so we’re going to have a long Hurricane season.

[malaise]

29. Reminder - Andrew was August

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes

Of the major hurricanes to hit Florida , nine were before September although I think your point may be valid overall.

[orthoclad]

38. "usual" might not apply anymore

Every year we see records broken. This year was the earliest Cat5 storm, iirc.

The boat is rocking.

[Conjuay]

28. we got a 'cyclone' warning for last nights' thunderstorm.

never had one of those issued before. Might be someone hit the wrong button, but I always thought cyclones were a Pacific event.

[malaise]

30. Where are you?

This is is a raggedy mess with lots of water.
They should have said tropical cyclone or tropical storm.
Add

[Conjuay]

55. Central Florida.

Sorry to take so long to respond, but we are in our third day of “cyclone warnings” and I just don’t understand how this is any different than a normal Florida summer

[malaise]

56. You'll know in the next 10 to 15 hours

Stay safe

[TommieMommy]

31. I hope it's not bad

I'm in Volusia county so we'll probably get a lot of rain and my street floods. I don't want any more tornados. 🙏

[malaise]

32. A lot of water

I too hope there are no tornados

[ProudMNDemocrat]

33. I have friend living in Brunswick, Georgia.

I am sure they are aware of the impending storm and are preparing for it. Where they live, there are a lot of marshes, Their subdivision is such that there is drainage for when it rains, but if the marshes get flooded, water can get to their house. I just texted my friend.

[malaise]

36. Hope the flooding misses them

[GreenWave]

34. See you this Friday Debby!

[malaise]

37. Where are you? N/t

[GreenWave]

46. I am here! (Sorry MST binge watching again!)

SE VA.

[EX500rider]

41. It's been raining so much lately though we are going to have some severe flooding due to the saturation

[malaise]

42. Stay safe

and watch out for those gators

[GoodRaisin]

44. Thanks, as always for the storm warnings. Us eastern North Carolina folks

always appreciate the heads ups.

[malaise]

45. YW - stay safe

It’s getting busy in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and GOM

[mentalsolstice]

52. Thanks Malaise, still keeping my eye on this one.

We live in the panhandle, so the slightest shift west….fortunately we have a bugout list ready.

[orthoclad]

57. Latest NHC discussion

"Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical
shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant
strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone
forms a well-defined inner core"
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041457.shtml?

Low shear, warm water.

Storm surge forecast hasn't changed, peak surge of 6-10 feet.

Rainfall in the low country will be severe.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0424WPCQPF+gif/154938WPCQPF_sm.gif

[malaise]

58. This will be a flood mess

And rain is almost covering the state. And it will be a near Cat 2 at landfall. You were right.