Harris VP mystery: Signs point to Shapiro

[Demsrule86]

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/02/josh-shapiro-harris-vp-running-mate

Harris VP mystery: Signs point to Shapiro

Hans Nichols
Josh shapiro

"It's a combination of math and logic: Pennsylvania's 19 electoral college votes are the biggest swing-state prize on the map, and its Democratic governor has a 61% approval rating.
Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks at a Harris rally in suburban Philadelphia on Monday. Photo: Hannah Beier/Getty Images

No one who really knows is talking. But White House, campaign and party sources tell Axios that all signs point to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 51, being picked as running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris...Why it matters: Virtually all roads to 270 electoral votes run through Pennsylvania — one of the few things the Harris and Trump campaigns agree on.

While Harris could surprise everyone, she seems to be headed toward a pick that a wide variety of sources — Republicans and Democrats — think is both shrewd and straightforward.It's a combination of math and logic: Pennsylvania's 19 electoral college votes are the biggest swing-state prize on the map, and its Democratic governor has a 61% approval rating...
Driving the news: Shapiro's VP stock hit record highs Thursday afternoon after CNN reported he was canceling a series of weekend fundraisers in the Hamptons...Technically, a total of six potential running mates are still in play. But most of the conversation among senior Democrats has narrowed to Shapiro and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona.
Shapiro met with Harris' vetting team on Wednesday. Kelly did the same on Tuesday.

What we're hearing: After a topsy-turvy month, the Democratic Party is done with surprises.
No more bombshells. The system is overloaded. Democrats believe that if Harris has telegraphed it's Shapiro, she should pick Shapiro. The Harris campaign has urged reporters not to read into Philadelphia being chosen to kick off a battleground tour on Tuesday. But Shapiro will almost certainly be there — either as a running mate or runner-up.
A Trump insider told Axios that many top Republicans also assume the pick will be Shapiro: "Pennsylvania's the whole ballgame."

I thought this demonstrates the importance of PA as a path to a Democratic victory. All paths lead through PA...could we win with someone else...sure maybe. But why take the chance?

[JI7]

1. It feels like him but it can be confusing becsuse that's where she would campaign

starting off even if it was any of the others. And Shapiro would speak at that event even if someone else was picked.

[DFab420]

2. I mean it's not a dating game. Just because he doesn't get picked doesn't mean he won't go all in to support

a Democratic ticket.

[Demsrule86]

14. It would hurt us in PA at this point... our General Election win run through PA...I can't think of any sort of win

that doesn't include PA. And sure maybe we win with a different VP...maybe, it won't matter? I would rather not take a chance personally. He has a 61% approval rating.

[Demsrule86]

15. There will be pusback from PA...shapiro has broad appeal...and the ticket will be attacked as too far left...

Of course, it is not true but I have serious concerns if Shapiro doesn't get it after all of this arguing and the attacks on Shapiro.

[moonscape]

3. My $$ is on who she is most

comfortable with, who,she wants to consult with, be in the bunker with, trusts, respects, and this has been such a short window to flush all that out.

She (I think) knows Shapiro longest/best from their AG days, and if he checks the above boxes for her … off to the races!

(Said as a Walz fan woman)

[DFab420]

6. Yea it's gonna be tough! Can we just pause to appreciate how DEEP the Dem bench is right now though?

Any of these choices would be amazing VPs and also in 8 years (HOPEFULLY) they would be amazing Presidential candidates as well.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. I like him.

He’s the type of vocal pit bull you want as VP.

Kelly has other great qualities. Those 2 are both amazing picks.

[DFab420]

5. I'm still thinking it's Kelly or Walz. The idea a VP pick delivers a state has only really held true for LBJ.

Kelly ends the border nonsense that's been dogging her

Walz is Pelosi's pick and we know the Speaker emeritus is about as savvy as they come.

[SocialDemocrat61]

9. So true

Also, Kelly won’t automatically deliver Arizona just by putting him on the ticket. The whole ‘the VP delivers a state’ argument is simplistic and lazy thinking.

[Demsrule86]

16. PA is a must-win state so that is not true. I personally would be devestated if we lost becaue of PA not being in

our column. And in this environment a candidate who can bring in an important state is invaluable. I like all our choices but I want to win.

[Indykatie]

7. Shapiro is Higher Risk But Offers Higher Rewards

Of all the names under consideration he offers the Media a bigger target to gin up some drama in my opinion. They'll have a field day reporting on the sexual harassment claim his office settled for $295K that involved s guy on his staff. Then there's his strong support for vouchers and of course the noise from our far left wing about Gaza.

I've gone back and forth and originally thought Shapiro would be the best choice. I think the safest choice would be Gov Beshear. I can't wait to see who Harris chooses.

[crimycarny]

13. Yes--a bit leary about some of the risks

The media is bloodthirsty for drama and a "horse race", thus they will raise the dial up to 11 to try and gin up as much drama as they can. It seems Shapiro gives them the most ammunition. If PA was doomed with anyone but Shapiro, then choosing Shapiro is worth the risk. But I don't buy the argument that PA is only a sure thing if Shapiro is chosen.

As someone else wrote in another post on VP choice, "First do no harm". I'm not so sure Shapiro checks that box.

[Demsrule86]

19. The voucher think is not true...Shapiro supports public schools...they have lost nothing because of vouchers...

As for the sexual harassment that happens in any organization. It was not the governor. I want to win. After all of this PA may be pissed about how their popular governor was attacked. I hope he is the choice...we need PA.

[NYC Liberal]

8. Shapiro doesn't need to be on the ticket to help us win PA.

I’m not saying it won’t or can’t be him. It could be. But the impact running mates have on delivering states is very exaggerated.

He’ll still be out there campaigning for the ticket even if it isn’t him.

[Demsrule86]

20. I disagree.

[questionseverything]

26. Are you saying he won't campaign for harris and whoever she picks?

[lindysalsagal]

10. Not to mention, he'll make an awesome potus in 8 years

[DFab420]

12. That's why I think it'll be somebody older like Walz or Kelly

So that in eight years whoever runs will be considered a fresh ticket

[Ocelot II]

11. A running mate hasn't unequivocally delivered his state or region since 1960,

when JFK chose LBJ because otherwise the southern Dixiecrat states wouldn't support the ticket. Somehow it's become conventional wisdom that the VP pick gives the ticket a lock on that person's state but the assumption is not supported by history. Seems to me that Harris should be able to win PA with or without Shapiro, considering that its voters elected both him and Fetterman.

[SocialDemocrat61]

24. Four years ago

I had friends who argued that Biden needed to put Stacey Abrams on the ticket to win Georgia or Amy Klobuchar to win Minnesota. He didn’t and win those states anyway.

[Ocelot II]

25. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican since 1972.

But that's a good point about GA. Campaigns are much more national than they used to be.

[SocialDemocrat61]

27. Exactly

Biden didn’t pick Harris because he needed her to win California. And there are numerous examples of a ticket losing the VP’s home state.

[Brenda]

17. Remember the documentary "Gasland"?

Shapiro is still working with fossil fuel companies for "economic" reasons despite his own constituency trying to hold him accountable for the damage left by the fracking industry!

I hope Kamala understands the situation here.

The public water line for Dimock residents was part of a plea agreement reached by then-Attorney General Shapiro with the company involved, Coterra Energy, in 2022. Two years later, some Dimock residents still do not have clean running water. Kemble’s anger is not just about the water line, it’s also about the quiet decision by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to lift a 12-year moratorium on fracking in the town the day after the agreement was announced, allowing Coterra to drill in the area once again.

Now, with Shapiro reportedly on Vice President Kamala Harris’ shortlist of potential running mates, Kemble and others in Dimock want the American public to know what happened to them—and why they feel betrayed by the governor.

Since he became governor in 2023, Shapiro has “radically changed his environmental policy priorities and began to court fossil fuel companies,” Physicians for Social Responsibility Pennsylvania wrote this week in a new fact sheet about Shapiro’s “startling reversal on climate issues.”

In February 2023, the Conservation Voters of Pennsylvania heralded the election of an “environmental champion” as governor. Less than a year later, the same group was criticizing Shapiro’s economic plan as “a repackaging of the fossil fuel industry’s playbook in Pennsylvania.” Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s Pennsylvania arm endorsed Shapiro’s “shared goal” of “ leveraging our state’s abundant natural gas resources to help accelerate economic growth.”

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26072024/potential-vice-presidential-pick-josh-shapiro-environmental-record/

[Demsrule86]

21. You should just stop.

[Brenda]

28. Is this what censorship looks like? nt

[Celerity]

30. +1

As the years flow by in my life, I constantly meet, or at least virtually encounter, people who operate via a paradigm wherein they think they alone can decree what is proper discussion and what is not. They think their opinions are the only acceptable ones, and that anyone disagreeing with them is automatically suspect.

I find DU to have, unfortunately, an inordinately high percentage of that particular archetype. I wish more posters here would push back against that behaviour.

Also, the ones engaged in that behavioural modality need to disabuse themselves of the notion that they have the whip hand of control over others to any real, impactful degree.

[OnDoutside]

18. "But why take the chance?" That's it in a nutshell.

It's the most obvious choice to win the most important swing state.

[Demsrule86]

23. It makes no sense to do otherwise...there is no downside.

[Ocelot II]

29. Except that there's no guarantee at all that he'll win PA, or that without him

the ticket will lose it. Running mates don't deliver their states; that's 60-year-old conventional wisdom and it hasn't actually worked in decades. I like Shapiro; there are good reasons for choosing him, but if Harris thinks one of the others has characteristics (whatever those might be) that she considers even stronger, the assumed but illusory notion that he guarantees PA shouldn't change that decision.

[Cha]

22. 4 more days!

I like Gov Shapiro a lot! From reading DU on his Campaign for Governor and now on the VP list I've learned the most about him.

VP Harris really does have a deep bench to choose from!

TY