***BREAKING*** 🔵 Harris 48% (+4) 🔴 Trump 44%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[Gaytano70]

1. TSF is going to BLOW!

Oh the humanity! Oh the KETCHUP!!!!!

[Tadpole Raisin]

8. In 3 - 2 - 1! ... If people thought he was off the wall before

wait until after her VP selection, convention, and post DNC bounce.

Family and aides better have EMS standing by (or a washcloth at least).

[Gaytano70]

9. KABOOM!

[BlueWavePsych]

28. SMELVIS is gonna have a conniption fit.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Nice

The surge is real.

[DFab420]

3. How good/reliable is Morning Consult?

[democratsruletheday]

16. NOT good.....rated 116th by 538

unfortunately. Man...that sucks:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Oopsie Daisy]

18. I think that positive poll results likely help to drive the way that people view Harris, wouldn't you agree?

Even if the poll isn't the most accurate or respected... not everyone who skims headlines realizes that. It's human nature to want to support a winner... so I'm not going to take a dump on ANY good news for Harris (regardless of how the polling org is ranked).

I welcome good news EVERY time, any day of the week, by ANY polling organization.

[democratsruletheday]

25. I hear you Oopsie...

but someone asked how high or in this case low that morning consult was and when I checked on 538 I was kinda bummed out that they're ranked 116th. BUT....as Johnny2X has reported the 538 average is up to almost a 2pt. Harris lead when ALL polls are averaged out. That's without a VP or convention yet. So....there ya go.

[DeepWinter]

26. idk

Persuasive polls rather than predictive polls gave us 2016.

I'm still uncomfortable with all the cheerleading I'm seeing we're going to wash, rinse, repeat all over again, right up until the final hour.

[Torchlight]

38. It does not follow.

Enthusiam does not temper votes. Indeed, its corollary is more often true than not.

[orangecrush]

22. Read your profile

Interesting!

[orangecrush]

19. Welcome to DU

Read your profile - interesting.

[DFab420]

36. Thanks, been here for a while but I come and go.

[orangecrush]

20. Welcome to DU

Read your profile - interesting.

[jimfields33]

4. When the hell do they change to likely voters?

Registered voters is too broad. They need to change this yesterday.

[democrattotheend]

6. Most pollsters change around September

LV screens aren't considered reliable before then. But that may get moved back a little by some pollsters as early voting becomes more prevalent.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. There was one published yesterday (YouGov?). Nt

[obamanut2012]

13. Usually after Labor Day

[Kingofalldems]

14. Looks like she's ahead.

[jimfields33]

15. With registered voters.........

[Kingofalldems]

37. Oh.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219289255

[jimfields33]

39. About time they use likely voters.

[oasis]

5. Widen that gap and make it stay!

[Johnny2X2X]

10. 538 polling average is now Harris +1.9

It's been over a week since a single poll had Trump ahead and those were not well known pollsters.

In the states, it's the same trend, polling averages in the key states:
PA HArris +1.0
MI Harris +2.0
WI Harris +1.6

GA is now Trump +0.8

And New Hampshire and Maine are back to solid blue. She's narrowed the gap in NC. If the election were this week, she'd win.

[obamanut2012]

12. Yup -- and we still have the Veep announcement and the DNC Convention

Which will be a bump, especially if Beyonce is there and if a bunch of GOP come onto the stage in support.

Thanks for the info, Johnny.

[democratsruletheday]

17. Mostly true J2...

but still way too close for comfort obviously. Sure hope she gets a good VP/convention bounce we're all hoping for.

[obamanut2012]

11. The trends are encouraging

[zeusdogmom]

21. The trends are encouraging

But in the end it is still the electoral college numbers that count. I am an optimist at heart - however there is a stubborn, deep red swath of states smack dab in the middle of the country and along the southern coast that are mighty hard to turn toward blue.

[kellytore]

23. Younger voters are usually not counted as likely voters

so they are not represented as well in registered voter polls. If the younger voters come out for VP Harris as they probably will we could be seeing a huge blue wave.

[Upthevibe]

24. DemocratSinceBirth..........

OKAY......Here we go.......

Thanks for posting...

[ashredux]

27. Oh, this one's easy. " fake poll... fake poll!!!" 👏 there you go, that was easy to fix.

Trump will just yell fake polling, fake election, fake, fake…. that’s all he’s got left.

[osteopath6]

29. YES!!!

Wonderful!!!

I never doubted VP Harris 🤩🤩

[lame54]

30. Not good enough...

How the fuck does he keep such a high number?

Even if we win there are too many brain dead zombies roaming the country

[exboyfil]

31. State polls in 5-8 states are really all that matter

And even then how valid or they in today's climate. It is likely to be a coin flip election just like the last two. Something nauseating to consider - Trump will probably have more votes for President than any man who ever lived (at least until someone loses either his first or his second election to be President).

Trump lost the popular vote by 4.5%, but he was around 44,000 votes from tying the EV and winning in 2020 (Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia).

[TBF]

34. The EC is key - BUT I do think national momentum is critical in convincing

swing-state voters that they are joining a winning ticket. Kamala's "we're not going back" should resonate with many, and hopefully that with the enthusiasm will bring folks aboard (and interested enough to show up to vote!)

[TBF]

32. That is a good start coming into August -

folks coming back from vacation, returning to work & school

VP pick should be exciting & the tour to come should keep momentum going!

[mwb970]

33. This is just the beginning, folks.

trump will retain the 33% who are MAGA morons, but not many more.

[Initech]

35. Let's do this!!!