*WI 🟦 Harris: 51% 🟥 Trump: 42% -- MI 🟦 Harris: 48% 🟥 Trump: 43% -- PA 🟦 Harris: 49% 🟥 Trump 45% *

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[senseandsensibility]

1. That Wisconsin number is something

[Norbert]

14. When you disparage Milwaukee

You may need to expect things like this. All the orange malignancy needs to do is keep talking and he will do the work for us. Lol

[JJ101]

26. Walz?

[Metaphorical]

2. TFG must be having heart palpitations at this point.

Fantastic news!

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Fantastic

Know this, a few weeks ago numbers like this in the opposite directon caused Joe Biden to withdraw from the race.

These back up the NY Time Sienna polling we just saw showing Harris +4 in each of these 3 states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Confirms the NYT/Sienna polls

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Yup

And I think there was a prominent pollster who had Trump in MI +7 right before Joe withdrew, I think that poll was a big contributor to Biden's decision.

And of course there is internal polling that the party has that shows these trends too.

[lees1975]

19. I wouldn't use NYT/Siena as the standard.

Looks like the pressure is forcing them to acknowledge she is winning.

[Johnny2X2X]

20. Huh?

You think the NY Time Sienna is biased because people pressured them into these results? Were they biased when they had Trump +8?

[RedSpartan]

24. They are the #1 ranked polling group by 538.

Not that 538 is the be-all, end-all, but still...

[Celerity]

46. legit polls do not work like that (and the NYT/Siena poll is a legitimate poll)

forcing them to acknowledge she is winning

[COL Mustard]

17. I don't think President Biden's decision to drop out was strategic

But man, what it accomplished:

Waited until the Republican convention was over and they had their ticket set.
Pulled the rug out from under TFG and made him reset to run against Kamala. No Sleepy Joe there!
Took away any satisfaction TFG could ever have gotten by winning against JRB in November.
Totally re-energized the entire anti-Trump universe.
Introduced us to the term "tonic masculinity" and one hell of a good guy in Walz.
Made Shady Vance look even weirder.

Maybe it was 6D chess, maybe it wasn't and we can't coast on it until November but Damn it's fired up a whole bunch of people!

Thank you President Biden for all your years of service and for one final act of self-sacrifice.

[usonian]

34. I have been saying pretty much the same, MOREOVER ...

He gets an energetic team to accomplish all that he couldn't, with a congress full of howler monkeys and walking dead,

AND he doesn't have to take any more s*** from anyone. He can call his lawyer from the beach, and sue the living daylights out of his detractors for threats and defamation,

plus he gets his pick of Secret Service guards, even on the beach.

[mnmoderatedem]

4. The PA numbers are particularly encouraging

Perhaps the most critical swing state, and it seems that is the swing state trump had his biggest leads.

And that's with Kamala NOT selecting Shapiro as her running mate.

[Torchlight]

6. This has been a decidedly poor summer for Mr. trump.

His campaign lack any real vim or vigor, while his base has become an actual laughing stock in national discourse, and his troll army is reduced to copying and pasting tired variations on 'I'm so very concerned about If, Ands and Buts! Why Aren't You?"

All in all, a meek start to his campaigning season.

[Happy Hoosier]

8. MFer is TOAST! Keep the pressure on!!!

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

33. Until 8pm Hawaii time on Nov 5th! ...nt

[SunSeeker]

39. Yes, keep the pedal to the metal!

[LAS14]

9. Looks great, but what do we know about this poll?

I can't find it in the expanded 538 list.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Just one data point

Doesn't matter how legit this poll is, it backs up the NY Times Sienna poll.

[progressoid]

16. From their website...

Our Mission

Leaders who support centrist common sense compromise are at risk.

‍Each election results in more extreme candidates, thriving on division to propel their fame… at our expense.

The Independent Center’s mission is advocate for the millions of Americans who believe we share common ground.

Centrist independent voters are the majority. It’s time we raise our voices to support leaders who will work together to solve our challenges with tolerance & compromise.

Through our research, events & outreach we will promote & support candidates who share our values.

https://www.independentcenter.org/poll-toplines/exclusive-poll-election-2024-survey-of-swing-states

[Think. Again.]

27. No partisan bias there.

[Zoomie1986]

44. The crucial point about it:

Yes, the MOE per state is a bit high at 4.38, but they polled likely voters, always the best indicator of the election day outcome.

This is an excellent poll for Harris, pre-Labor Day.

I have a strong feeling that those first post-summer polls will be crushing for Cheatolini.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

11. Campaign in Florida, Texas, Nebraska, and other places Democrats are running.

Last edited Mon Aug 12, 2024, 07:17 PM - Edit history (1)

The ketchup will really hit the walls if Kamala is within striking distance in Florida, ties, or takes the lead there.

Though do not underestimate Ronnie D. He cannot prevent Kamala Harris from coming to Florida or Abbot regarding Texas.

[bagimin]

35. I bet FAU is polling right now....

rec. pot is also on the FL. ballot. Could it be a perfect storm?

[Zoomie1986]

45. I don't think it would hurt if Democrats would invest

In the big cities of Texas. Ignore the rest of the state--it's a lost cause. But DFW, San Antonio and Houston?

Getting all of those areas fired up wouldn't hurt anything, and might help Allred a great deal. Metro DFW, Houston and San Antonio combined are half of the Texas population, and greater than the entire population of any swing state.

Those cities need some love, though, to put together some ferocious GOTV operations.

[Sugarcoated]

12. Awesome!!!!

[jaxexpat]

13. At this point, is it too soon to suggest a........

50 state blitz to claim both houses of congress (in a meaningful way) to pass a few constitutional amendments which have been sorely missing for decade

Like:
Equal rights amendment
Eliminate the electoral college
Term limits for USSC justices
Outlaw for-profit prisons
Universal healthcare
Dental and vision care Medicare
Outlaw lite beer and loud music playing at gas pumps........... who's with me?

[progressoid]

15. Also from the poll...Which candidate would you feel more comfortable babysitting your child?

Kamala Harris 45%
Donald Trump 20%
Neither 32%
Unsure 3%

https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66ba4069b73a13894a56414d_Independent%20Center%20-%20Battleground%20States%20Poll%202024.pdf

[Tribetime]

21. I can't believe anyone would trust donOLD SEX ABUSER with their kid

[Justice matters.]

31. Those 20%ers are his most ignorant or violent cultists.

They want a violent dictatorship that will terminate the constitution.

[PedroXimenez]

25. what about RFK Jr? n/t

[peppertree]

28. As dead as that bear

Or that worm, if you prefer.

[Wednesdays]

43. My child?

I wouldn't trust TCF with my old worn-out sneakers.

[ShazzieB]

18. As much zs I feel compelled to take polls with a geain of salt, this is very good news.

Foe one thing, we know those numbers are extremely important to TSF, which means they may have a demoralizing effect on him (and certainly won't be helpful to him).

Also, the fact that poll after poll is coming in so favorable to Harris doesn't seem likely to be a mere coincidence.

[GregariousGroundhog]

22. This is good

If Harris keeps Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she can lose Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona and still beat Trump 270-268.

[ouija]

23. She is going to blow him out

[Klarkashton]

29. And trump thinks he is going to turn this around with an interview with musk. Hahahaha

Musk will be smoking a big blunt and letting trump lie his ass off. Pathetic desperate Hail Mary.

[applegrove]

30. Ba-Bam!

[Justice matters.]

32. And the convention has not even started yet! No complacency though.

Keep working for a record Blue Wave!

[OrlandoDem2]

36. I am hoping for massive voter registration and GOTV efforts in Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas, and

Charlotte.

We can win if we find the unregistered voters, get them registered, and then GOTV.

Lesssss gooooooooooooo

[onetexan]

37. From Huffpost: this bump is in part by young voters

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/election-2024-live-updates_n_66b3ac49e4b05d0bc280816b/liveblog_66b9eecce4b04b3eb251ae0e
HuffPost Staff
Aug 7, 2024, 01:36 PM EDT

6.6K COMMENTS
LOADING

Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, campaigned through five battleground states this past week.
"Harris Leads Trump Among Young Adults In Battleground States, New Poll Finds
A new poll of 18-to-29-year-olds in battleground states conducted by John Della Volpe for Won’t PAC Down, first reported by Politico Playbook, showed Harris’ approval rating with this group of voters has risen by 16 percentage points since July.

The poll also found Harris leading Trump by 13 percentage points in a two-way race."

[AlexSFCA]

38. Michigan is a solidly blue state - all branches of government controlled by dems

MI Governor, AG, SoS, state senate and house - all controlled by dems. Both US senators from MI are dems. It’s not even close to a purple state in 2024. Harris will easily carry MI (even Biden would have).

PA and WI are not far either. Biden won PA by a significant margin > 100k votes and the state has become only more blue in the last 4 years. Governor, AG, SoS, both US senators and state house - all dems. State senate is in GOP control, hopefully, not for long. In other words, all statewide elections have been won by dems in recent years in PA.

WI appears much more purple than MI and PA as both state senate and house are controlled by GOP. Still, all statewide races have been won by dems in recent years including governor, AG, SoS and both US senators.

The good news is that all three states appear to have strong election systems - all controlled by dems unlike GA.

I am very optimistic that we will carry all states than Biden did in 2020 with bigger margins with the possible exception of GA which has serious issues with voter registration and access. On the other hand, we will have a realistic chance of winning in NC where Biden would have lost.

[Johnny2X2X]

40. This was a Bullfinch poll

It’s legit and has been added to 538.

[Deminpenn]

41. According to Ari just now, it's a statistical

tie...

[oasis]

47. Ari may know rap lyrics but he'd better brush up

on his knowledge of “MOMENTUM” and the effects thereof.
Kamala/Walz&Co. are on their way to steamrolling the entire MAGAbot outfit.

[Johnny2X2X]

48. Women's 4X400 relay in track and field

Statistical tie for the US women.

[Wednesdays]

42. This is awesome news! But let's not take our foot off the gas!

Keep working as though we were still behind! Get out the vote!