59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds

[TheProle]

The U.S. economy has remained remarkably strong even amid persistent inflation and high interest rates.

And yet, 59% of Americans falsely believe that the U.S. is currently in a recession, according to a recent survey of 2,000 adults by Affirm in June.

Citing higher costs and difficulty making ends meet, most respondents said they think a recession started roughly 15 months ago, in March 2023, and could last until July 2025, Affirm found.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/59percent-of-americans-think-the-us-is-in-a-recession-report-finds.html

[displacedvermoter]

1. What a shitty job the media had done to inform the public

Do you think they are ashamed of themselves?

[spooky3]

4. ITA. Americans need better financial education too.

We need Stephanie Ruhle clones on every media outlet—she does a good job providing factual business and financial info in simple language.

[Nimble_Idea]

42. Steph actually came out and pointed out the flaws in your, "if only more education". look it up.

[spooky3]

43. Where did I say "only" better financial ed was needed? Nt

[Nimble_Idea]

49. yeah must be a whole lota things you have the answer for. not interested in 2016.

[Dave says]

18. Ashamed for what was their plan to get TFG re-elected? No.

[displacedvermoter]

25. Ashamed of how badly they have done for some time now in carrying out their supposed reason for being

namely keeping Americans informed. An informed America being, supposedly, critical to Democracy!

[Dave says]

27. Their real job has for some time been to manufacture consent and quell unrest

In other words, propaganda. The propaganda is thick here. After all, we are the "shining city on the hill".

[Johonny]

2. Trickle down economics

Economy doing fine, but GOP economics means it doesn't translate down to most people

[Skittles]

7. BINGO

people having a hard time paying the bills don't care how the stock market is performing

[Dave says]

20. I believe wage gains have exceeded inflation. Unemployment has been low. What's not to like?

[Skittles]

29. do you live around people who sometimes choose between rent and medicine?

I do

[DBoon]

32. Did they have to choose between rent and medicine when Trump was President?

[Skittles]

33. once again, semantics

they care what's going on now

the point is, people who are struggling won't think the economy is doing well because it ISN'T, for them

[Dave says]

44. I understand the individual struggles

But you are not defining “recession”, which I thought was the subject of this thread.

I fully understand how awful it can be when you’re looking upward from down below in a weak economy and when not immediately benefiting in a strong economy. I was there for more than a decade (mostly waiting tables). Hearing how well others were doing added to the stress of everyday life. Those individuals may believe we’re in a recession, but we are not. There are other problems to be addressed.

I’ll concede this: to many in the bottom deciles, it feels like a bad economy. There needs to be better class consciousness. There needs to be battles with those who would oppress to maintain the status quo. Unions, cross-industry strikes, battles with the media, things like OWS and BLM. There needs to be a much more equitable distribution of the value created through work (both paid and unpaid). We’ve been losing the class wars since 1980, if not before.

(On edit: 59% of Americans are not forced to choose between rent and medicine. I’d wager it’s much lower. We are not a third world nation yet.)

I appear to be raising negative emotions, but I’ll stop here.

[Skittles]

52. and I am telling you

the DEFINITION *DOESN'T MATTER* to people who are struggling

DONE HERE

[Dave says]

55. I think you completely miss the point of 44

However, it’s driven you to shouting at me (caps). I am unable to persuade that the problems we face are not (just) recession vs. non-recession. They’re very real, but solving “recession” in current socioeconomic structures does nothing for the bottom decile, even if it brings a garden of earthly delights for the top.

Apologies for driving you to shout. I’m have enjoyed your posts in the past. I too am done.

[Tadpole Raisin]

57. However a person defines recession it is primarily how that individual

feels about their ability to make it in the economy.

A politician should NEVER tell someone the economy is doing well when the individual is suffering. It pisses them off and they don’t care about definitions or statistics.

You acknowledge their difficulties and tell them what you are going to do. Discussing (for example) price gouging and how it takes money out of their pockets forcing them to make hard choices is something they will appreciate.

Anything else will be viewed as bullshit and pablum. Trump took advantage of the angst people felt - gave them something to hate but did nothing.

They are ready for a message from Kamala and Tim, and unlike Trump they see authenticity with Walz especially and they will listen now to an alternative to RW crap.

Red States do very little for their people, but they tell their constituents it’s the Dems who are causing their pain. You are right there are a lot of battles to be fought. I think once dems make changes that improve people’s lives they will realize they’ve been lied to for years by republicans as they picked their pockets. Once the patina is removed people will see the rot that was the Republican agenda and Rs will lose their power.

We can only hope!!

lol, Do I get extra scrabble points for using ‘patina’?

[Dave says]

58. Great post, thank you!

And I agree with it all 100%. Including the scrabble points.

I’ve been here since 2002 and, my first post here, is the first post (at least that I can recall) that pulled me into battle with others I admire and most often agree with.

Very awkward post on my part.

[Tadpole Raisin]

59. Not at all!

I like exchanging ideas with people. It forces me to clarify my own thoughts and consider other views.

Sometimes we mean the same things as others but we use different words that for other people are triggers and then it’s off to the races (in a bad way). I’ve certainly experienced that!

Thanks for helping me clarify my thoughts.
And I’m actually bad at scrabble. I take away too much time.

[Zoomie1986]

65. Oh please

Never tell people doing badly that we're not in a recession...when we aren't?

You're seriously recommending that economists LIE about how the economy is doing, rather than tell the truth, because some people might not be doing so well--which is always the case during a boom?

Unfrickingbelievable.

No, tell the truth, even when it hurts, and use the opportunity to tell people struggling that we want to help them enjoy the great economy, too. But we don't lie to them, because that's the worst and the absolutely STUPIDEST thing anyone could do.

[Tadpole Raisin]

66. No. Economists should say exactly what the data is.

I’m saying politicians shouldn’t do that. I’m not saying lie, just be aware that when you are speaking to people not everyone can enjoy the economy. There are sectors doing poorly and areas of the country doing poorly. Acknowledging that is important.

I’ve been through multiple downturns. In most of them my sector did quite well but many others did not. I had conversations with people where I mentioned how good the economy was. They didn’t want to hear it. Should I have said I’m sorry for what you are going through but you are wrong?

What’s the saying - a recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. Telling people who are hanging on but are a paycheck away from losing everything that ‘we want to help them enjoy the great economy too’ will get you nothing but derision.

Most downturns I did fine and lived in my happy bubble. In one I did not, and that’s when I finally got it.

We will just have to disagree.

[Dave says]

45. See post 44

[markpkessinger]

36. Talking about how wage gains have exceeded inflation is an abstraction as far as most individuals go . . .

. . . Just because wage gains have, on average, exceeded inflation, that doesn't really mean all that much to the man or woman who gets ONE annual salary review per year!

[Dave says]

46. See post 44

[Nimble_Idea]

41. people struggling don't care about people's feelings and beliefs, and debates about words.

as I recall, the people in the midwest gave a collective fuck your feelings/fuck your sunshine in 2016. They did not come out to vote because tone deaf people were running the show.

Thank god for Harris.

[Dave says]

47. See post 44

[Nimble_Idea]

48. see 2016

[Skittles]

53. gawd I detest the SEE POST ## thing

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Dave says]

56. Sorry, but would you have me ...

Post in duplicate to the several that responded to me?

[Skittles]

60. COPY

then type (re: POST ##)

PASTE

it is courteous in that you don't expect people to go searching for your response

[Dave says]

61. Thank you, I will do that.

Makes complete sense.

[Skittles]

62. I found out the hard way

long ago

[XanaDUer2]

31. This is what I say

Millions of Americans aren't invested in the market. All they know is they can't buy their kids cereal due to the price.

[andym]

3. Inflated prices and interest rates defining a recession is a common misconception

HIgh prices on consumer goods combined with high interest rates lead people to believe the economy is in a recession, even if GDP is positive and unemployment is low. Why? Because they cause economic pain and pain is associated with a "recession". High interest rates hurt Americans with CC debt and homebuyers. High prices on goods take money out of everyone's wallets.

[Deek1935]

15. People got spoiled with 3 and 4 percent interest rates. 6% is actually damn good. My first house was 8% in the 90's.

[Dave says]

23. Good points (I concede)

[Skittles]

5. see that's the thing

doesn't matter what great "economic indicators"t there are if people are having "difficulty making ends meet"

[spooky3]

8. That's true, but calling that a recession is incorrect. It would

Be interesting to see the responses to a question with different wording.

[Skittles]

9. IT'S NOT A GOOD ECONOMY FOR EVERYONE

how about that?

[spooky3]

11. A recession means high unemployment, negative gdp growth, etc.

If what reporters want to know about is whether people feel that prices are outpacing their incomes, or if they are personally out of work, or whether they want to buy a house but can’t qualify, that’s what they should ask.

[Skittles]

28. I think people who are struggling don't care about semantics

ya know?

and we cannot count on the press to do anything accurately

[markpkessinger]

38. This is such an important point!

It is, indeed, NOT a good economy for everyone. Food and other prices are still quite high, even though the rate of inflation has eased up. And to speak of wage growth outpacing inflation simply doesn't mean all that much to the working stiff who typically gets ONE annual salary review! Democrats who insist on speaking as if there is no problem come across as out of touch!

[Nimble_Idea]

40. those are the 2016 Hillary Campaign experts talking

thanks be to god, that Kamala Harris ain't with that crowd.

[BannonsLiver]

6. On the upside

It means that is already baked into the polling we’ve seen, which has been good for Harris.

[ProfessorGAC]

24. Great Point!

Which also suggests that the poll was taken without really understanding if said opinion matters.

[TheProle]

26. Great post, and

Why Harris ranks better on the economy than Trump (and Biden)

It’s been a series of surprises since President Joe Biden stepped down as the Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him. Harris has surged in the polls. She draws campaign crowds that make Donald Trump jealous. Once-mordant Democrats are now enthused about their odds of beating Trump, the Republican nominee, in this year’s race for president.

Here’s a particular WTF moment: Voters suddenly seem to rate Harris higher than Trump when it comes to the economy. The latest monthly Financial Times poll finds that 42% of voters say they trust Harris the most to handle the economy, while 41% trust Trump the most.

That’s an eye-opener for a couple of reasons. First, voters consistently rated Trump higher than Biden on the economy, and Harris hasn’t done anything at all to distinguish herself from Biden on economic issues since Biden dropped out on July 21. Yet voters rate her 7 points higher on the economy than they rated Biden just one month earlier.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-harris-ranks-better-on-the-economy-than-trump-and-biden-185923243.html

[Coexist]

10. how do we fix this?

[spooky3]

19. A great question--but hard to answer until we understand what

People mean when they ask about or respond to qs about the economy.

[TheProle]

35. You really can't when you have competing narratives from "experts"

There is a 40% chance the U.S. economy is in recession, according to a new indicator

The “Sahm rule” has some fresh competition after a team of California-based economists introduced an indicator that they said can detect a recession more quickly and more reliably.

It shows the chances that the U.S. economy has already slipped into a downturn are around 40%, based on the latest Labor Department data for July. The downturn could have begun as far back as March, its creators said.

Economists Pascal Michaillat, an associate professor of economics at University of California Santa Cruz, and Emmanuel Saez, a professor at UC Berkeley, introduced the new rule in a paper published earlier this month.

The rule relies on a similar methodology to the Sahm rule, an indicator developed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, which relies on changes in the unemployment rate to sniff out a recession months before one is officially declared. But there are a couple of important differences.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/there-is-a-40-chance-the-u-s-economy-is-in-recession-according-to-a-new-indicator/ar-AA1oIsUG

[RidinWithHarris]

12. It's mostly the media's fault, but a lot of Democrats are afraid to say the economy is great too...

...because, if it's not good for everyone (and clearly it isn't) then you aren't "feeling their pain" enough.

Walz is the first I recall recently clearly and proudly making the point that the US economy is pretty much the best in the world right now. For all the issues we have (not even much inflation any more, but prices still up from previous inflation, and housing costs) we've come back roaring from COVID like no other country.

[Nimble_Idea]

39. well I did not hear that, hopefully Kamala can reign him in

I did hear her talk about bringing junk fees down, and corporate gouging.
I did hear Walz talk about how we are now producing more energy.

Both things the base wants to hear about.

[RidinWithHarris]

64. Rein him in???

I'm glad Walz said what he said. It's about time we Democrats acted proud of the Biden economic record.

[Yavin4]

13. MAGA people will cry about the economy so long as a Dem is in the White House

If Trump wins (God forbid), the economy will probably be the same as it is now next year, and MAGA will act as though an economic miracle happened.

[BWdem4life]

14. A recession is when your neighbor loses their job

A depression is when you lose yours.

[Dave says]

16. Crazy

We've had a powerhouse economy over that time.

[ImNotGod]

17. So 59% of Americans got an F in economics? nt

[TheKentuckian]

51. Too many of the remaining 41% get an F in politics and messaging

so it is a messy mess.

That 59% doesn't give a shit about getting the correct answer on the econ 101 test and some of the 41% that knows we are not in a recession and are little happier about how little the money stretches.

No amount of education is going to shift people into happiness that they are struggling to buy groceries and keep a roof over their head.

We cannot make any strides because many are in no mood to even admit the problems exist, preferring to pound stats with a side of mocking.

[Deek1935]

21. Most people don't know economics. Very very ignorant of it.

[NewHendoLib]

22. Trickle down misinformation from the lazy, not very bright media

[Think. Again.]

30. It really is shocking how gullible the media-watching public is.

[LoisB]

34. Gee, I wonder why? snark

[Nimble_Idea]

37. Yall need to get out of your 2016 thinking. I know you might think the economy is great because "mah stocks"

but average Americans are NOT happy. These are facts. I hope the ticket (and I have seen nothing but good things so far) doesn't go around saying how awesome things are. But what they plan to do for working people in this country.

lest we get a Michael Moore reminder from where he comes from.

[Mysterian]

50. It's the motherfucking grocery store!

Price gougin' motherfuckers!

[GPV]

54. Here's the thing, if it feels tough down here on the bottom, then no, we don't notice

the great economy. It's unfortunate that Biden doesn't get more credit, but that stuff by and large isn't being felt enough down here.

[Takket]

63. 59% of americans don't know what a recession is......

many are upset about increases is costs, but that isn't what a recession is.

It's amazing how quickly we forgot what a truly bad economy looks like. 2008 was 16 years ago. the youth were just kids then.

[Mysterian]

67. Just tell me it's not a recession when I pay $5 for a little box of oatmeal

or $6 for ground beef and I'll feel so much better!

My girlfriend visits from Germany and is shocked at the prices.

WE ARE GETTING RIPPED OFF!

No, it's not Joe's fault, but the pandemic prices have NOT come down -- because of price-gouging corporations.