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"IF" the felon is sentenced to jail (Original Post) Beachnutt Aug 2024 OP
Even if he's sentenced to jail, the sentence will be stayed pending appeal. So, no, he won't be campaigning from prison onenote Aug 2024 #1
Oh I thought 34 felony convicts Beachnutt Aug 2024 #2
No DeepWinter Aug 2024 #3
Not true.. getagrip_already Aug 2024 #4
Do you have a link to this analysis? The analyses I've seen suggest jail in falsifying records cases is rare onenote Aug 2024 #5

onenote

(46,227 posts)
1. Even if he's sentenced to jail, the sentence will be stayed pending appeal. So, no, he won't be campaigning from prison
Wed Aug 14, 2024, 10:08 AM
Aug 2024

Beachnutt

(8,944 posts)
2. Oh I thought 34 felony convicts
Wed Aug 14, 2024, 10:10 AM
Aug 2024

were thrown in the slammer and appeal from jail.
I guess thats just for poor folks.

 

DeepWinter

(931 posts)
3. No
Wed Aug 14, 2024, 10:14 AM
Aug 2024

First time offenders for non-violent felonies rarely get jail time. Add in his high level profile. Nearly certain no jail time.

What is likely though, is an impact on his voting rights. That's very likely.

getagrip_already

(17,802 posts)
4. Not true..
Wed Aug 14, 2024, 10:19 AM
Aug 2024

Someone did an anslysis of ny court cases and as it turns out, for what he is convicted of, he is highly likely to draw jail time.

However, he is highly unlikely to be remanded to jail pending appeal.

So he will likely be free through the election. But have to report at some point there after.

onenote

(46,227 posts)
5. Do you have a link to this analysis? The analyses I've seen suggest jail in falsifying records cases is rare
Wed Aug 14, 2024, 01:43 PM
Aug 2024

Norm Eisen reviewed thousands of New York cases charging the falsification of business records cases. While he concluded that, in his opinion, jail time was "likely" for Trump, his data showed that in nearly 90% of cases charging someone with falsifying business records, there was no jail time imposed. A subsequent review that cites Eisen's survey tried to massage the data further still found that over 80% of such cases in which there was a conviction or guilty plea, no jail time was imposed. https://www.justsecurity.org/97186/trump-sentencing-cases-survey/

It is important to note that the authors of that survey sought to show via 26 examples (out of a universe of over 300) that "comparable" cases to Trump's resulted in jail time. That may be what you are referring to. Apart from the limited nature of the examples -- which appear to have been chosen to support a specific outcome, a close review of the examples shows that they are not necessarily comparable because, for example, the defendants were, in fact, charged with other felonies, including felonies with more severe penalties that that applicable to a falsification of records charge, even if they weren't convicted of those charges under a plea deal or were convicted of those charges in a separate case. Moreover, as any experienced criminal trial lawyer knows, sentencing is, at its core, a fairly subjective process and no attempts to compare one case to another can possibly take into account the subjective elements that may have impacted whether a defendant was sentenced to jail time.



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