What will it take for Harris to unambiguously seal the deal on at least 270 electoral votes on election night...

[RidinWithHarris]

...or at least the morning after?

For example, I don't care if everything shows Harris ahead by 10 points in Georgia, local MAGA elections officials are clearly lined up to simply refuse to certify election results no matter what. They won't be cowed in the slightest by a strong Harris showing.

In fact, they'd probably say a strong Harris showing was itself "evidence" of election fraud. I fear not getting a certified election result out of Georgia even in time for the Electoral College vote.

There are potential problems in a few other states too, it's just Georgia I've heard the most about.

Anyone here have an idea of the states most likely to face Trump-ed up certification denials and election challenges? How many EVs are tied up in all such states?

I'm thinking the only way we have a solid, clear-cut victory right away if for Harris to win every battleground state, plus some surprise pick-ups. Otherwise the election resolution might drag on week after destabilizing week again.

[Lovie777]

1. Florida and the main EC..........................................

[RidinWithHarris]

2. Yes, Florida would definitely help close the deal

Even if FL doesn't mathematically end all chance for Trump right away, if Harris can swing Florida that would take the wind out of the sails of pretending that any falsely-disputed states are actually validly in dispute.

[obamanut2012]

3. MI, MN, WI, PA, NC, AZ or GA, and a huge surprise like OH or FL

Remember FL is in two time zones, so don't get too excited about early returns.

[RidinWithHarris]

6. Two time zones isn't enough to draw the results out past midnight in ordinary circumstances

But ordinary circumstances haven't been ordinary for a while.

[Initech]

16. Of all the states, the one I'm most worried about is Arizona.

Yeah they don't have a lot of EVs, but they do have a lot of election denialism. You know those idiots are plotting something, and that something stinks. If Arizona is remotely close they could go full Bush V Gore and that wouldn't end well.

[Rstrstx]

19. Would IA be a huge surprise?

Walz might help pull an upset, and like OH and FL Obama carried it twice (and it’d be a lot cheaper to advertise in).

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Arresting the budding election deniers on the spot and moving to the next in line might work

We cannot become beholden to what amounts to a massive sickout to suit Republican political insurrections. I don't see why this would be left to the states in a federal election, either. The US of A does not deserve to be defrauded and the majority of citizens do no deserve to be invalidated by what amounts to a nationwide scheme of grand larceny!!

[Initech]

15. Also telling Fox News where they can shove it!

[Jerry2144]

5. Texas would seal it

Last edited Wed Aug 14, 2024, 06:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Texas isn’t a red statestate it’s a voter suppressed and voter repressed state. It also has had a good amount of apathy since neither side really motivates anyone but the most fascist of Republiklan to vote. This election might do it. Energizing candidates on the D side, Cancun Cruz. Dobbs decision pissing off half the people.

I’ll go out on a limb here. This year is the year Texas turns purple. Turnout could actually swing this to the side of good and gain US one D Senator and one POTUS Lotus. VPOTUS Harris gives me hope and optimism. And Coach Walz - Chef’s Kiss off extra compassion

[Alice Kramden]

10. I think you mean

Coach Walz

[Jerry2144]

12. You're right. Sorry

It’s Coach Walz and Couch Vance.

I’ll edit to fix. But I’m still optimistic

[Alice Kramden]

13. "Couch Vance" - that is brilliant

Too funny

[jmowreader]

17. Texas is the GOP's California - it's the state they HAVE to win to take the election

Texas is sitting on 40 electoral votes all by themselves. Without it they're screwed, because most of the states where Trump is beloved are sitting on five or fewer electoral votes. If we can flip Texas and keep it, the GOP will NEVER win the presidency again.

[Jerry2144]

18. I think this will be the last election

it stays red. It could even flip blue this year. Demographics are changing. People there are not liking the fascism, and the apathy is breaking. Voter suppression/repression will still be there. But that can be overcome with turnout drives and people getting motivated to vote. VPOTUS HArris will motivate the black vote. I think she'll reach out and connect with the Hispanic vote. And women of all colors will significantly support her since the Republiklan Party's draconian abortion policies came about.

Put me down in the "Harris comes within 0.5% of winning or wins outright" camp

[Zoomie1986]

7. I don't think she needs to win FL or TX

In fact, I doubt she will win them.

But if she's within 5 in one or both, she's probably done well enough in purple states to pull it off.

[RidinWithHarris]

8. Harris definitely wins if she's within 5% of either of those states & I guess psychologically we could feel assured...

...that protracted legal challenges in other states would eventually come out in our favor, but we still might not have enough totally-safe-to-declare EVs right away without a surprise like an outright win in one of those places.

Maybe every single one of the swing states without a bonus like FL or TX would be enough for a quick, clear 270?

[jmowreader]

20. On a strict numbers basis she doesn't need to win Florida

Nor does she need to win Ohio.

On the other hand, if she could pull off the feat of winning both Donald Trump and JD Vance's home states, the GOP might realize just how screwed they are.

[pwb]

9. Keep fighting to restore Women's freedoms.

Women will be turning a lot of red blue. IMO. Women are pissed all over the country.

[LostOne4Ever]

11. Assuming that happens in AZ and GA

We could still win with plenty of wiggle room with this map:



In a worst case scenario we would still win if it happens in NV too.

Penn, Michigan, and Wisconsin are key though. If there are any shenanigans out of those three I would guess it would probably be Wisconsin.

This is all just conjecture on my part.

[Celerity]

14. That map doesn't have that much wiggle room, and IF it is accurate for all but NV, and NE-2

is left a tossup, you have the nightmare scenario I have been talking about for ages.

269 Dems
268 Rethugs

With NE-2 possibly flipping and it ending in a 269-269 EC tie, and thus the rigged US House, (rigged due to illegal gerrymandering in NC (NC once again newly rigged), WI, and FL making it impossible to pull the Rethugs under 26 states in terms of delegation control) electing Trump despite him likely losing the popular vote by 5 to 10 million or so.

Widespread violence will absolutely break out, as people will lose their shit over an ultra arcane 18th century mechanism, updated with 21st century illegal shitbaggery (the 3 rigged states ensuring Trump wins the US House 50 state, single vote per state apparatus) installing an insane (literally) dictator.

Blue Maine could have blocked that all by stopping their EV splitting (ME-2 is now basically an auto Rethug split EV giveaway), but they stupidly refuse to do so.