VP Harris now has more paths to the presidency than Trump per WaPo; competitive in more states that could add up tp 270

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Kyle Griffin
Vice President Harris now has more paths to the presidency than Donald Trump — that is, according to WaPo, she is competitive in more states that could add up to 270 votes.

The Post's modeling shows Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina.

Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.
https://washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/kamala-harris-polling-electoral-college-polling-model-donald-trump/ (paywalled)

[gab13by13]

1. My over/under for the popular vote is Kamala by 11 million.

If I were you, I'd take the over.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. I don't think overall turnout is going to be that much higher

Mainly because I think, by November, a lot of the MAGA faithful will be so demoralized they will just stay home- that’s where the huge margin will likely come from.

Yes, women and young voters will support Harris by wide margins, but I think it will be the collapse of Trump’s support that will get the lion’s share of attention.

[Tribetime]

4. That's my number 2 weeks sgo but with Walz I'll say 14

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. It's way more than just two paths

Somebody posted recently that there are something like 35 possible combinations of winning three out of seven swing states that add up to 270 for Harris.

[displacedvermoter]

5. If Harris wins Ohio, Florida or Texas it is over

Any real chance of her doing so?

If she were to win two of these three, there is no chance of a repeat of 2020's multiple coup attempts, her victory would be too overwhelming.

Thinking big here.

[multigraincracker]

6. RealClear betting odds, as of now.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

Vegas has, bet 100 on tRump and win 80. Bet 100 on Harris and win 110

I wonder if that is on the Popular Vote?