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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAbsolutely devastating poll for Trump
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-poll-election-issues/story?id=112865487&mc_cid=8c5e22fabf&mc_eid=UNIQIDA midnight national poll by WaPo/ABC:
Harris leads Trump 51% to 45% (among likely voters).
In a full-field test, she leads 49% to 45% among LVs.
Favorability ratings (RVs, I think):
Harris 45/44
Trump 35/57.
Link to tweet
Brand new ABC News poll out this am has Harris up 6 over Trump among likely voters. Independents have moved from Trump up by 4 to now Harris up by 11!. Harris favorability is 45/44, net +1. Trump favorability is 35/57, net -22! He is lower today than when he lost in 2020.Link to tweet
Link to tweet
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-poll-election-issues/story?id=112865487
**************
?w=1500
AND:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/18/harris-trump-post-abc-ipsos-poll/
= new reply since forum marked as read
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mucifer
(25,700 posts)Last edited Sun Aug 18, 2024, 08:49 AM - Edit history (1)
completely focused on the protests. I suspect that is what will happen.
BluesRunTheGame
(1,967 posts)not DLC 
mucifer
(25,700 posts)
RandySF
(85,361 posts)
augyboston
(379 posts)While I have empathy for the people of Gaza and the West Bank and I think Netanyahu is a criminal and a thug, I don't get these protestors' focus on the Democrats.
In this election we have two choices, the Democrats who favor a two state solution and have pushed for the end of this war or tRump and the GOP who would give Netanyahu and right wing extremists in Israel a free pass to "do whatever the hell they want". They would also give Putin the freedom to take all of Ukraine and put Poland at risk.
These actions designed to hurt Harris-Walz and the Democratic Party are short sighted, self destructive and quite frankly stupid.
mopinko
(73,813 posts)
rubbersole
(11,256 posts)oldsoftie
(13,538 posts)NO, not ALL of them but the ones causing the trouble almost ALWAYS are professional agitators. And they should start being charged as such.
GopherGal
(2,933 posts)The supposed anti-war protestors torpedoed the candidate that was more likely to share their supposed goals.
I'm hoping we don't see a repeat.
I'm not usually a conspiracy nut, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there's some Re-THUG dirty tricks going on to egg on the protestors.
summer_in_TX
(4,206 posts)The troll farms are focused on the fault lines in our society and fanning the flames.
MistakenLamb
(791 posts)Trump is a white no college turnout machine, every single one of those voters from his Wilkes-Barre rally yesterday will be voting
Link to tweet
?s=46
speak easy
(12,598 posts)
Roe hadn't been overturned. The Supremes hadn't gone rogue. Vance hadn't insulted every woman in the country. Project 25 hadn't come to our attention.
This is a very different race. There is no comparison to 2016
speak easy
(12,598 posts)relying too heavily on polls. Given the stakes, we cannot relax, however good the polls might be.
ananda
(35,316 posts)Period
kcr
(15,522 posts)"The polls are great, so no need to work!" I've never once seen a get-out-the-vote event canceled because the polls look great. I get the feelings of anxiety, but pointing out what happened in 2016 is not only meaningless because it isn't 2016 right now, but ultimately, it can depress turnout. It doesn't matter what we do because it will be just like 2016, and we're gonna lose? Then why even bother? It isn't 2016, which was 8 years ago already. So much has changed since then. Gloom and doom never helps.
edisdead
(3,396 posts)I was writing up a similar reply and decided not to post it but yours summed it up really well.
Thanks!
NJCher
(43,334 posts)We are wise to their electoral college tactic plus we have Mark Elias fortified.
paleotn
(22,477 posts)Particularly when our democracy is at stake. Feel great about the progress to date...but then put your head down, work hard and win.
Like youngsters in my charge over the years who think they're done with a project.....You're not done. What about this, this, this and this? Oh yea. Good point. Annoying for them, but diligence born from painful experience.
CTyankee
(68,317 posts)They have seeded the must-win states with people at the local/state level in the battleground states. They have figured out ways to do this. They have done this before and they will do it again!
We know this is a problem. The question is: HOW do we deal with it?
NJCher
(43,334 posts)See my post 68 and since you missed it, Google Elias for the latest.
LisaL
(47,470 posts)They didn't want to admit they were going to vote for Trump. They could be doing the same thing again.
Yavin4
(37,182 posts)Got to GOTV.
paleotn
(22,477 posts)Fight, fight and keep on fighting like the existence of our democracy and our very freedoms depend on it. Because it does.
groundloop
(13,897 posts)Hillary did happen to receive 3 million more votes than tRump, but thanks to our archaic electoral college that didn't matter.
paleotn
(22,477 posts)The electoral college. A legacy of slavery. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to read the founder's own words.
James Madison, normally a proponent of popular democracy, but also a Virginian and slave owner....
“There was one difficulty however of a serious nature attending an immediate choice by the people. The right of suffrage was much more diffusive in the Northern than the Southern States; and the latter could have no influence in the election on the score of the Negroes. The substitution of electors obviated this difficulty and seemed on the whole to be liable to fewest objections.”
Should have dumped the electoral college when we got rid of the three fifths compromise. VT, my state, has 3 electoral votes, but more people live in 10 city blocks of Brooklyn than my entire state. Not even counting our oversized influence in the Senate, it's nuts!
calimary
(90,397 posts)Spot-ON.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)to the republicans in congress saying they were looking at a laptop for additional information. The MSM then paraded every right wing pundit across their outlets pushing the LIE that the email investigation was reopened. That went on practically 24/7 until late Friday evening, the weekend before the election, when comey quietly came out and said nothing new had been found, but the damage had been done. The entire lead that Hillary did was completely erased going into the general election.
yardwork
(69,488 posts)It was an absolute disgrace.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)analysis of the 2016 polls saying they "overestimated" Hillary's support, they CONVIENTLY leave out what happened 11 days before, and it really wasn't rocket science, it's just that the media knows THEY were a contributing factor in what happened, and they are trying to push it under the rug relying on the fragile memories of Americans.
Cosmocat
(15,453 posts)No one saw that coming and it is not going to be a free run for Kamala, either.
The right wing will keep being hysterical and throwing shit at the wall and the media WILL enable and even amplify it.
Good chance something sticks again.
This isn't doom and gloom, what we are seeing now is real and so incredibly refreshing. I think and hope w all my being it will work out.
But, they always find a way to turn things into shit, and that levels the playing field for them.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)saying that the polls over estimated Hillary's lead, ignoring the main reason why that lead was completely erased because of what Comey did, is disingenuous at best, and intentionally misleading at worst.
In fact, most of the polls showed Hillary was ahead by 4-5 points before Comey's letter, and that lead was completely erased after Comey's letter, and the MSMs misrepresentation and outright lies about it for the next week before the election.
Things haven't changed that much either in regard to the press coverage.
IzzaNuDay
(1,306 posts)and we have to keep on fighting back. We need to find some more crap on that felon closer to election day as well!
TRHST82
(57 posts)Plus, Trump is super old and stale. Kamala is more exciting and has less baggage than Hillary - even if most of that baggage was unfair.
Bengus81
(10,263 posts)Nov 3--Nov 6. She won by 2.1% and Jill Stein cost her 1.06% so they were close. Not sure if Bloomberg was polling or reporting but those numbers are way off.
Clinton wasn't polling 12 points ahead by any poll--including FOX in that last week. There were times during 2016 where she had a 10-12 point lead but those were in early spring--March/April polling.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)11 days before the election, and the media's misrepresentation and outright falsehoods for the next 7 days completely erased that lead to dead even.
That is when Jill Stein did her part.
In every critical swing state, Hillary lost by less than 1%, while stein received 1% of the vote in those critical swing states. It didn't take much.
It was a two pronged whammy which made it almost impossible to recover from.
Two reporters from the NY Times writing a book how bad the Hillary campaign was, completely minimize the Comey event, because their paper contributed to what happened.
That being said, there was no doubt that the campaign should have spent time in Michigan and other swing states which they didn't. I am not sure if they could have overcome the Comey and MSM coverage that followed though.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)11 days before the election, and the media's misrepresentation and outright falsehoods for the next 7 days completely erased that lead to dead even.
That is when Jill Stein did her part.
In every critical swing state, Hillary lost by less than 1%, while stein received 1% of the vote in those critical swing states. It didn't take much.
It was a two pronged whammy which made it almost impossible to recover from.
Two reporters from the NY Times writing a book how bad the Hillary campaign was, completely minimize the Comey event, because their paper contributed to what happened.
That being said, there was no doubt that the campaign should have spent time in Michigan and other swing states which they didn't. I am not sure if they could have overcome the Comey and MSM coverage that followed though.
Farmer-Rick
(12,730 posts)The popular vote. She got the most votes. The problem was that Dems weren't playing the electoral college game, or getting Russian trolls and bots to push the propaganda, nor get Comey to do a letter on Trump's emails.
If I remember correctly, she kind of hid away during the GOP convention and we all felt it was a mistake because there was no push back on all the cover ups and lies the GOP was putting out. I noticed Biden did not do that.
I think Dems have learned from those mistakes.
But yeah, don't ever get complacent. Even 13 points ahead a week before the election is NO guarantee of winning.
Sky Jewels
(9,148 posts)Trump is a well known quantity now, and tens of millions are determined to keep him out of the Oval Office. And Harris is a much different candidate than Clinton, who had two decades of bad press going into that election. And there are lots of other differences/factors.
But, of course, like everyone always says, we can't be complacent, get out the vote, etc., etc...
democratsruletheday
(1,906 posts)Harris/Walz aren't Clinton/Kane. Plus, Trump is 10X weaker and nuttier now than then. Simply doesn't apply IMO
MistakenLamb
(791 posts)
getagrip_already
(17,802 posts)Likely voters are those that have voted in recent elections. You can be a registered voter and not have voted in years, and you wouldnt be polled as a likely voter. The same goes for newly registered voters.
Trump won in part due to a surge of nontraditional voters. The ugly white male racist vote who felt disaffected and hadnt been voting.
The other part was dems who felt safe enouhh to cast protest votes. In michigan, enough voters voted a straight dem ticket but left the potus line blank to swing the state.
The polls right now arent picking up the people who are coming back to vote because of roe, or democracy, or who simply werent old enough before.
Kaleva
(40,391 posts)
SunSeeker
(58,342 posts)You are citing a poll from June of 2016, before the Hillary email bashing by the media and Comey killing her poll numbers with his bullshit investigation and trashing of her at a presser.
Your post is false and suppresses the Dem vote. The image you are posting is what right wing trolls are posting all over the internet in response to polls showing Harris ahead.
NoMoreRepugs
(12,175 posts)The utter stupidity of so many Americans scares me.
newdeal2
(5,506 posts)It’s just about feelings and perceptions. Some people forgot how bad things were under Trump - remember the no toilet paper days of the lockdown?
calimary
(90,397 posts)In too many cases, the most physically attractive folks (who photograph well), especially the ones with good agents, don’t understand the basics.
And little is being done to REMIND voters, viewers, and listeners, of how shitty the trump years were for anybody who isn’t rich or privileged.
yardwork
(69,488 posts)The MSM isn't doing much to correct the lies, either.
I saw a Trump ad yesterday that claimed we have "record high interest rates" and "record high unemployment."
Rubyshoo
(1,959 posts)
paleotn
(22,477 posts)Keep up the damn fight!
Happy Hoosier
(9,573 posts)..uh huh, uh huh, I like it! Uh huh, uh huh!!!
TRHST82
(57 posts)As long as they're peaceful, maybe the media won't fixate on it for too long.
mdbl
(8,720 posts)They all favored Hillary too. I just ignore the silliness and try reinforce the inane that's in front of us every day by republicans.
Aviation Pro
(15,668 posts)Memories of gas prices when nobody was driving during COVID.
msfiddlestix
(8,181 posts)The minimum of a 25 point lead would be within the devastating territory.
But I'll take the paltry difference with some measure of hope the gap will widen eventually which is absolutely necessary to win the EC count.
Shermann
(9,065 posts)I loves me some hyperbolic headlines. Clicky clicky!
msfiddlestix
(8,181 posts)I only WISH all of this was true.
How many more total meltdowns, the end is near, a total devastating slip in the polls by 3 points!
must we endure?
Fiendish Thingy
(23,542 posts)Despite all quotes being about responses from Likely Voters, the pollster provided No data on the LV sample size or MOE, only the larger sample of “adults”.
slightlv
(7,865 posts)I'd really like to see that we older voters are pulling (finally) for democrats... for many of us, our entire livelihoods are on the way out if T gets back in. I'd like to see Harris change the CPI to something more favorable towards our spending patterns, but at this point, I'll just take keeping SS and Medicare on tap for everyone!
Second, there is no breakdown for older Women voters. We vote consistently in every election. And *we're* the ones who fought this fight the first time around in the 60's and 70's. THAT would have been important to see, AFAIC. It's a bellwether to how much of a women's movement is coalescing around Harris. But they stopped with women aged 39... top tier of the chance for pregnancy, so they think. Like we menopausal and post-menopausal women have no opinion on the subject anymore? And what about all the childless cat ladies? They really missed on this one, IMO.
DownriverDem
(7,021 posts)the Labor Day polls. That will give us a clearer picture.
oasis
(53,810 posts)
What a wonderful day that’s gonna be. Deflated
Megabots sulking in their dark corners, mad at the world.
Those evil rats deserve to choke on and finally swallow that giant bitter pill named Donald Trump.
samnsara
(18,775 posts)..and not so much now toward Kamala especially after she publicly stated her view of the situation. Hopefully they realize the harm their disruption can cause and the other guy sure as hell isnt gonna help them any.
TRHST82
(57 posts)But I'm some of them are total purity/litmus test extremists who don't give a damn about saving Democracy and just want to punish the Democratic party.
bucolic_frolic
(55,480 posts)And we know Trump has nothing but lies.
But it's still a modest lead, and Dems have much work to do.
BlueWavePsych
(3,412 posts)
Wonder Why
(7,170 posts)ZonkerHarris
(25,577 posts)Prairie Gates
(8,344 posts)The "Kamala turned black" thing was a catastrophe. People were like, "Oh God, I remember this shit now. No thanks."
Attilatheblond
(9,076 posts)The billionaires won't go easy, they will buy every avenue to cheat possible.
senseandsensibility
(25,260 posts)Thanks for posting! Great jolt of encouragement going into this weeks' convention!
JoetheShow
(155 posts)I would point out that in all elections post Dobs, the Democrats have dramatically exceeded expectations. I'm cautiously optimistic which for me is the equivalent of unbridled exuberance.
