***New National Presidential Poll of LVs Harris 50 Trump 44***

[Johnny2X2X]

https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/presidential-race-remains-stable

Sample size of 1867 LVs with a MOE of 2.3%. This was included in the 538 Average which now has Harris up 3.6% nationally.

But more important than the national average are the swing state averages.
Arizona Harris +1.4
Georgia Trump +0.5
Michigan Harris +3.4
Nevada Harris +0.6
Pennsylvania Harris +1.8
Wisconsin Harris +3.8

[anamnua]

1. I presume this is too early

to detect a post-convention bounce.

[Oopsie Daisy]

2. That's what I was wondering too.

Things will look even better by this time next week. I hope. I believe.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Correct

But there is polling going on right now that we will see in the next few days that will have some of the convention bounce in them.

I think the convention was amazing and we will see a modest bounce from it, but more than anything the convention has motivated and united the Party like never before.

The fact Dems have framed it that they are running a hopeful and more inclusive campaign at the same time they're actually hammering Trump is no small feat. Trump's campaign is floundering and he has yet to find a real attack strategy that lands.

[ColinC]

4. These new one are showing a cool trend

Which is basically that Trump is losing supporters while Kamala is maintaining her own. I imagine a lot of voters will cool on Trump and go to undecided before switching to Harris. If she can get a real bounce, I imagine her nearing 60% in the somewhat near future.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Idon't think he can get over 46%

I think that's his peak.

So he outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020, and a couple swing states got polling very wrong in 2016. But I think that dynamic has changed completely since Roe v Wade was overturned, I think it's the Dems who are outperforming polls right now because so many voters are highly motivated by abortion rights.

It's all about Pennsylvania right now IMO. Michigan and Wisconsin are solid in the Harris column and she can build bigger leads there easily, but PA is too close still, she and Tim will campaign a bunch there and so will other surrogates. I feel MI and WI will be Harris +6 or 7 in the polls going into election day, get PA to +5 and it should be a drama free night.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Just remember:

The polls in 2020 significantly overestimated Biden’s performance by more than Harris’ current swing state leads, just as they overestimated Republican performance in 2022.

The trends (movement, not averages) however, are very encouraging.