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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy I think 2024 is different than 2016
Ive seen this before in the last eight years. We lead in the polls, and we either get stunned like in 2016 or we pull off a squeaker in 2020.
Now, Im not about to call 400 electoral votes for us, but I think 2024 is different than 2016 for different reasons.
1. Likability - You had two deeply unpopular candidates run against each other in 2016. One of them is still around, but just like President Biden in 2020, people just dont hate Vice President Harris the way they hated Secretary Clinton, and she doesnt come with the concerns Secretary Clinton did.
2. MAGA Fatigue - 2016 will go down as one of the biggest mistakes America ever made, and while its always been an awful election, I can somewhat see it in hindsight. People fell for the con, wanted something new and wanted something different from the Bushes/Clintons. MAGA isnt new anymore and its dominated the news cycle for the last nine years.
3. Energy and Enthusiasm - Kamalas crowds are being compared to President Obama in 2008. Its a fury of excitement, thats for sure. They had that in 2016, Id say more than we did. I think we won in 2020 largely not on America being enamored without President Biden, but anti-trump. The prospect, however, of a first woman, first woman of color president, who isnt as hated as Secretary Clinton, plus the anti-trump sentiment, that can only help us.
4. Running mate picks - Not that I necessarily have anything bad to say about Tim Kaine, but Tim Walz brings more inspiration and excitement than he did, while JD Vance looks like a historically unpopular pick that rivals the 2008 Sarah Palin blunder.
5. Attitudes - Secretary Clinton didnt campaign in Wisconsin. We all thought she had it. Vice President Harris is campaigning in Wisconsin, she isnt treating this like a coronation. Shes talking about the hard work that lies ahead on the campaign trail and seeing herself as the underdog. While this guarantees nothing, it gives me reason for optimism.
6. Threats - America was asleep at the wheel in 2016, leading to a drunken one night stand. The result has been the Dobbs disaster that awoke millions, a convicted felon having stenched up our White House, a corrupt, partisan Supreme Court who, even if they have their limits, has emboldened Republicans at the national and local level to want to encroach on freedoms and take rights away. They think they can get away with stuff since Dobbs was handed down. Thats how youve gotten Project 2025, thats how youve gotten Draconian abortion bans and some states wanting to push for more. People dont want to lose their rights and lose democracy. Now, people see. Dobbs and election denial/insurrection are not winners for them.
7. Subsequent elections - The pushback began in 2018, we took the White House and Senate back in 2020, added a Senate seat in 2022 and lost the House by only a thin margin. We also did well with governorships, and Im old enough to remember the midterms of 2010 and 2018. He couldnt inspire in 2018, 2020 or 2022, but hes going to inspire in 2024 after people know what hes about now?
We most certainly dont have the presidency wrapped up, but its a different America, a different world, than 2016. I think a lot of people know now what so many of us knew and thought back in 2016. They see the disaster firsthand of what happens when you take peoples rights away, what could be worse and when you have only one deeply unpopular candidate instead of two.

Joe Cool
(1,044 posts)He didn't have one in 2016. That's something you completely missed.
Trump could throw bombs and play offense in 2016. He wasn't forced to play defense. That is completely different now.
Initech
(103,325 posts)It's old, it's tired. People are tired of the hate and vitriol he spews on a daily basis. He only caters to his idiot cultist fanbases now. We're ready for a change and we want someone now.
PikaBlue
(275 posts)We courted their votes but were not overly attuned to the issues confronting them and without scooting over to invite them to the table. Commitment without participation is often half hearted and short lived. This is the perfect time to let the kids have access to the keys to the family car. For now, the registration and insurance policy are still in our name, but we can nurture their input and independence knowing that the kids are going to be just fine. Passing the torch is a matter of both attitude and action.
wordstroken
(696 posts)Concise and to the point.
Walleye
(37,449 posts)moreland01
(835 posts)the hate people say they have for Hillary. What did she do to them? She has way above average intelligence, a broad background in so many policy areas, just a superb candidate and person. She got 3M more votes. To this day, I still have women friends saying America will never elect a woman president. Kamala will prove them all wrong. And if Hillary wants to be Governor of the new State of Washington DC, she should be. Or, if she wants to be one of the additional 4 Supreme Court justices that Kamala adds to the 9, and spend the rest of her life fixing shit, then so be it.
diane in sf
(4,117 posts)moreland01
(835 posts)I asked one guy why he hated her and all he said was The Clinton Foundation is corrupt. WTF????
Skittles
(161,488 posts)fucking morons
JCMach1
(28,285 posts)VP Harris has literally morphed into Sanders lite (not a bad thing at all).
It's kind of like a weird mirror. I always said Trump IS the base of the Republican party.
VP Harris in a similar fashion now seems to fully embody the base of the democratic party. That is very different from Biden's position, or even Obama for that matter.
central scrutinizer
(12,441 posts)Namely, TSFs inept bungling nonresponse that had America leading the world in cases and deaths. Empty shelves, using coffee filters for toilet paper, nurses wearing garbage bags as protective gear, mass layoffs. Touting bleach, ivermectin, weaponizing mask wearing, blaming the Chinese, refusing to take any responsibility. If he had listened to Fauci and others and mounted a competent response, he probably wouldve been re-elected.
Unfortunately, Americans have a short memory and covid isnt dominating our lives anymore.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)But the threat hasnt.
People want to preserve democracy, they see the threat that is Project 2025, they dont want a convicted felon in the Oval Office. Many want their reproductive freedoms back.
Many Republicans are voting for Kamala not because they are enamored with her policies but because they know the damage TFG has done to this country will take decades to undo and they dont want further damage done.
keep_left
(2,658 posts)...in the culture war. He started it with his refusal to wear a mask, and soon his moronic followers were making up conspiracy theories about the vaccines (RFID chips, etc.) and refusing to take them--even being fired from their health care jobs for their refusal. Extremist radtrad Catholics disobeyed a direct order from their Pope to get vaccinated (it was a requirement for everyone at the Vatican!) and helped create one of the most ridiculous vaccine conspiracy theories ever ( "baby parts!" ).
Trump eventually lost all control over his MAGA chuds, so that when he bragged about the (minimal) role his administration played in the development of Covid vaccines (his idiotic "Warp Speed" initiative), he was booed off the stage! After that, vaccines were never mentioned again.
Unwind Your Mind
(2,218 posts)All because a vain, small, petty man didnt want his makeup smeared
LearnedHand
(4,423 posts)I think none of the polls are capturing that.
cally
(21,730 posts)What I was going to say. Also terror over project 2025. Its going to get worse if Jamal loses
beaglelover
(4,173 posts)EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)andym
(5,806 posts)Trump managed to get so many votes partially because he promoted himself as the change candidate in 2016. Kamala, though VP, conveys the sense of newness and potentially change, even though she also benefits from being part of the current administration. She comes in with a far cleaner slate than Trump.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)People werent enthusiastic about a 2020 rematch. Now, theres a younger candidate who doesnt have questions surrounding cognitive abilities.
Aristus
(68,958 posts)"I just voted for Trump to 'shake things up' ", now feel a little shaken themselves.
I still marvel that anyone could say something that stupid about something as important as voting. I can only assume they are apes who wear clothes, and know how to make vaguely communicative noises with their snouts.
LizBeth
(11,022 posts)there were so many factors working against HRC you will not see this election or people have wisened up with knowledge they did not have then. Two different times.
Oopsie Daisy
(5,142 posts)The eventual support Hillary received was both tardy and lukewarm. And in the end, the tepid effort did little to convince certain activists who were resentful, pouting, who felt cheated, and who were disappointed. But, disappointment comes with politics, there will always be winners and losers, and there will always be others who feel entitled and who'd rather have revenge. These are the ones who needed guidance and encouragement from their leader, but did not receive it. Left to their own devices, they protested by not voting, or by voting for Stein.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)But she won my state anyway in 2016.
Oopsie Daisy
(5,142 posts)


LizBeth
(11,022 posts)instead of celebrating JOYOUSLY the first woman Pres
Oopsie Daisy
(5,142 posts)LizBeth
(11,022 posts)wasn't running I could see it done with Cheney or Haily
Oopsie Daisy
(5,142 posts)LizBeth
(11,022 posts)LizBeth
(11,022 posts)for ego. So much of what is demanded from women always.
betsuni
(27,425 posts)Same Hillary who gave a speech at this year's convention. Same one people now say was right about everything. It wasn't her. None of the cartoon was true. Those who demonized her for no reason should be ashamed. But of course they are not.
She has a new book coming out, but I'm still waiting for this memoir:
https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/1279094-hillary-clintons-what-happened-book
LizBeth
(11,022 posts)Not gonna be gaslit.
birdographer
(2,639 posts)When I express optimism about this election, the spouse insists on reminding me that we felt the same way in 2016 and look what happened. And I keep saying NO. After watching DNC yesterday, I said once again IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!
I think HRC said in her speech "Something different is happening in America!" Yes! This is not the same thing. In 2016, trump was largely thought of as a joke. Now he is seen as a monster, an extinction-level threat to American democracy and way of life.
He is hate and fear, Harris is hope and joy.
And we are SO sick and tired of him. Personally, I wish the shooter hadn't missed.
erronis
(17,628 posts)Remember the "tea party"? Eventually that concept/name wore out it's welcome.
I think even the dumbest right-wing know-nothings are probably tired of that label and won't want to be associated with it. It'll probably keep them away from the voting booths, but they're still out there - waiting for another label.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)And I thought the Tea Party was crazy back in 2010-2012. The crazies on that side were just getting warmed up.
Oopsie Daisy
(5,142 posts)Warpy
(113,131 posts)who could spot talent at a glance and do no wrong.
8 years later, after 4 years of death and chaos followed by 4 years of stability (with his fan club srieking stupid stuff about communism), we know better.
TFG is a fuckup who couldn't manage a dirty water hot dog stand. He's a convicted felon and should never have been permitted to run for high office because of that. He has multiple, more serious cases hanging over his fat head. He is not qualified and don't get me started on that phony he chose as a running mate. I might start sounding like a nurse and get banned from DU.
That's why this year is dfferent. He was a star in 2016. That star has turned out to be tinfoil wrapped around a turd.
BaronChocula
(2,536 posts)Nothing wrong with pointing out our strengths.
I'll add to your second point on maga Fatigue. While I don't know scientifically the growing numbers of Republican defectors, we can factor in that for every one we know about, there are multiples that we are unaware of. And this is a one way dynamic. There is no exodus of Democrats to the maga party. I'm not predicting anything based on this, but it's much better news if you're a Harris supporter and not a cultist following a pant-shitting rapist.
Basso8vb
(642 posts)I think the rage at Roe being overturned is being massively underestimated.
I'm a child free middle aged guy and I'm livid.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)And some things, like abortion, shouldnt be up for a vote. Just leave people alone.
slightlv
(4,699 posts)Same thing as considering health care, overall, as a human right -- not a privilege just for the monied! My opinion (not that anybody asks) is that anything that touches on the welfare and care of a living entity should not be subject to the monied or extremist religious interests.. that includes not only healthcare, but also the "privatized penal system" we now have in this country. Lock up was suppose to be for rehabilitation purposes.. not revenge. It's flipped on its head since Nixon took office, IMO.
lees1975
(6,223 posts)Instead of believing polls, start looking at people who analyze and predict election results accurately. I don't think anyone is on a limb yet, but what I'm reading isn't overly optimistic, but its more so than either 2016 or 2020.
elocs
(23,194 posts)That was a mistake that nobody has repeated since.
Rstrstx
(1,580 posts)The Harris campaign is running a vastly better operation than the Clinton campaign.
nikatnyte
(330 posts)TFG lost by a hair in 2020....MAGA fatigue had already started to set in and everyone saw what a disaster he was as president.
And that was BEFORE he urged a mob to overturn a fair election, refused to accept the results of that election, stole a mountain of top secret documents, and was convicted of sexual assault as well as election interference. Those things have NOT gained him new followers.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)January 27, 2017, I asked if it was 2020 yet.
MaryMagdaline
(7,931 posts)Trump has spent all the RNC money on himself. We have a lot of money to spend on GOTV and on down ballot races. Some of our state parties are doing so well that theyre sending money to Democratic candidates in other states.
Volunteers are through the roof - but you covered this when you mentioned enthusiasm of our side.
IbogaProject
(4,007 posts)And claiming we were "strong" back during Cheetos's term in office. That is their basic argument. Truly insane as the GOP backing wealthy are behind this grocery spike. Which in my personal opinion has been deliberate to hurt our administration and suck some of that cream that our progressive policies were sharing.
bucolic_frolic
(48,392 posts)History is replete with power-hungry despots who subjugated their populace in order to exploit them. Americans know freedom. They're not going back.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)Even if this corrupt SCOTUS doesnt go along with every subjugation, Dobbs let the cat out of the bag and these people feel enabled.
SheltieLover
(61,855 posts)Kamala is ready for him. She's dealt with criminals all her adult life as a prosecutor & her campaign team,is so sharp, so aware, so ready!
Truly impressive!
Zoomie1986
(1,213 posts)A candidate campaigning in a state rarely affects an election. TSF campaigned in Virginia but didn't carry the state. Hillary campaigned in Pennsylvania but lost it.
If your claim that campaigning in a state affects the outcome were valid, then TSF would have won VA, and Hillary would have won PA. But that's not what happened. Care to explain that contradiction?
Your fallacy is Hasty Generalization.
jacksonian
(750 posts)Politicians tend to campaign in battleground/hard to win areas, so you would expect success rates to reflect that. The question is whether campaigning increases the chances versus not campaigning, and i think it's safe to say it does.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)But dont you think not bothering to campaign on a state is a bit insulting to the people of said state? They might not like that, and Im going to guess Wisconsinites didnt like Hillarys lack of a visit on her campaign.
betsuni
(27,425 posts)that's why people vote, get worked up about revolutions and movements. The applause and press coverage goes to their heads.
Who are these people in swing states that need rallies and attention all the time? Is it the 19th century when candidates traveled around by train and stopped in towns to give a speech and wave -- nobody has TVs, computers, radios, no way of knowing anything about the candidate without seeing them in person? Why are they uniquely clueless and needly? Why do candidates need to practically move there to get elected? Who goes to Democratic rallies -- Republicans and Independents? Why would they go to a Hillary rally?
Michelle Obama said don't sit around waiting for the campaign to contact you, DO SOMETHING. People sound like big babies whining that they're being ignored, the local campaign office doesn't have enough lawn signs, why hasn't anybody been around to kiss my butt and beg me to vote? Boo hoo. This makes me cranky.
Ignoring all the real reasons for what happened in 2016, these stupid "reasons" that weren't even true.
geo1
(81 posts)the most important reason may be that the Democratic Party is united behind Kamala and Tim. I remember well the deep division between Bernie and Hillary supporters expressed in this forum it did not end well to put it mildly. (Are the Jackpine Radicals still around?) My daughter was a huge Bernie fan, her first time taking any interest in politics, and her heart was broken when Hillary won the nomination. I love Bernie, but I thought Hillary was the better choice at that time. My daughter grudgingly voted for Hillary because she understood the danger of Trump. Must have been a lot of Bernie supporters that did not see things that way. Jill Steins Green Party candidacy sure didnt help.
The other important reason I see is that Kamala is running a much more effective campaign than Hillary. I was all in for Hillary, phone banked as well as donated (posted about it here back then), went to her rally in Grand Rapids, MI, just before the election. However, there were things she did and said that made me cringe, and I could not relax and enjoy listening to her speak or debate. Wont go into those things here (water under the bridge), but will say that I can relax and enjoy listening to Kamala and Tim. They know what they are doing, and I think theyve got this (with our help of course, no complacency allowed!)
spanone
(138,078 posts)EllieBC
(3,411 posts)she doesnt come with the concerns Secretary Clinton did.
Are the concerns in the room with us?
What concerns? Those made up by Other Candidates And Their Supporters along with the media during the primary? The concern trolling continued though the whole campaign that led to who knows how many decades of nightmares because SCOTUS noms were on the table but accelerationists didnt care?
Gtfo with concerns. The only concerns about HRC were complete fabrications.
betsuni
(27,425 posts)They knew what they were doing and didn't care.
EnergizedLib
(2,326 posts)Hillary wasnt establishment, didnt have an email controversy or concerns as Secretary of State/First Lady? I saw her record as a Senator and didnt think she was very principled.
Of course, Im going to vote for her over trump all day long, and she couldnt have been worse than TFG if she tried, but she wasnt well-liked, she wasnt very popular. She was right about everything she said about TFG, but I was never excited about her.
When the election was called, I couldnt back to sleep, but not because she lost, but because people actually fell for TFGs con. She was perfectly qualified for the job, just not someone many people, myself included, got overly excited for.
I supported Bernie as I wanted someone who felt like an authentic, principled choice.
kcr
(15,522 posts)
Pacifist Patriot
(24,915 posts)Harris is up against a candidate with political baggage and an old tired demeanor. His same rhetoric hits much differently now. I am not taking anything for granted, but I do think he's going down in flames.