This tool shows ratings of pollsters based on their historical track record and methodological transparency

[MLAA]

I could swear that before 538 was bought by ABC they showed the pollster’s ratings next to their results. They no longer do that, so you have to go to a separate site. I’ve posted the rating site and the site with polls as they come out. That way when you see an unusual or extreme result you can check the reliability of the pollster.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[notroot]

1. I don't bother with 538, at all anymore, after the 2016 disaster...

The 2018, 2020, and 2022 disasters (for pollsters) cemented the correctness of my choice.

The only "polls" I care about now are better known as "elections".

[Think. Again.]

2. Public polls are nothing more than clickbait for for-profit news media.

Public polls are the same thing as the sunday comics pages, or the obituaries, just another way to get the public's eyes on the advertisements.

[notroot]

5. Yup. Used to be there was statistics involved. But with the advent of the cell phone...

All bets are off.

Hell, I don't even use a CELL number, I use a VOIP (Voice-Over-IP) number, and have for like a decade and a half.

I'm far from alone. My two sons only use "burners". They just use the same burner until it burns out, then get a new burner for $50 at Walmart, and give everybody they care about their new number.

Tell me how polls can have any sort of accuracy in this environment?

[WSHazel]

3. Those ratings are deceptive

There is a thread from Simon Rosenberg in 2022 about Republican backed pollsters "flooding the zone" to skew the pollster averages and skew the narrative. This was deliberate. These same pollsters then move their last poll before the election several points from their prior points so those pollsters don't get dinged in the pollster ratings.

Rasmussen, RMG, Trafalgar, and several others have a reputation for doing this, and low and behold, those three pollsters are way more pro Trump than all the other national polls in recent polls. I believe that this is deliberate in order to drive narrative about a close race, when Harris is up about 5 points when the "flood the zone" polls are pulled out. She has a narrow, but solid lead that is consistent among the pollsters that don't seem to be manipulating their results.

[MLAA]

4. When I hear a poll being discussed, I look it up to at least understand if it is somewhat reputable (tho no necessarily

accurate).