This is my prediction: We take NC and VA, Lose PA, NV, GA, AZ: Harris wins 272

[lindysalsagal]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/gnQyA

BTW- You can alter your own version of this map simply by toggling each state from pink to red to blue.

[jimfields33]

1. No way is Nebraska going blue.

[lindysalsagal]

2. It surprised me, too. Harris has been up 5 or 8 points all month.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/

[Ace Rothstein]

4. That's just for one congressional district.

Nebraska, like Maine, has an odd way of assigning their electoral votes.

[jimfields33]

9. But it shows the whole state dark blue.

[Self Esteem]

12. Yes. The OP assumed Harris was leading in Nebraska and put it as blue.

Essentially, the OP's map means a Trump win because Nebraska is certainly going to give three of its four EV to Trump.

This map, when corrected for that, has Trump winning 270 EV.

[lindysalsagal]

15. Thanks for the explanation. I didn't understand NE-2.

[VMA131Marine]

5. That's only NE-2 not the whole state.

[jimfields33]

6. Interesting. I guess with Harris, anything can happen.

It’d be great to see the entire map blue.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. The "blue dot" will likely go for Harris

Remember, Nebraska splits their EV’s by congressional districts.

[Charging Triceratops]

3. We won't win NE. We won't lose NV, AZ

But PA is a mystery. Lots of idiots here.

[Freddie]

13. True but

Lots of minorities and suburban women. We usually outvote the Pennsyltucky part. Please dear god.

[obamanut2012]

8. We were already winning VA, and we are not losing all of those or winning NE

[Self Esteem]

10. Your map will mean Trump wins.

Trump is going to take three of Nebraska's four EV.

That'll give him 270 exactly and the presidency.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Your scenario would mean we would lose the senate

AZ is looking good for Harris and Gallego, and NC gov race looks good for Dems, so odds are improving for Harris there too.

NV and PA will likely be squeakers, and we won’t know the results on election night.

[Self Esteem]

14. PA will almost certainly be called either on election night or early Wednesday morning.

Nevada will likely take time, as will Arizona.

[PCIntern]

20. PA is blue...

No question in my mind.

Mayor Parker in Philly will GOTV and believe me, the suburbs will do their job as will the NE corner of the state and Allegheny County.

[Amishman]

32. I'm extremely nervous about PA

Voter registration trends for the state are extremely worrying. We're not only losing ground as a percentage of the electorate, but the number of registered Democrats has flat out fallen since 2020.

Just since 2022, we're down more than a full percent (45.78 to 44.68%), 4,000,436 voters down to 3,894,977.

Keep in mind, Joe only won the state by 1.2% in 2020.

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/05/pennsylvania-election-2024-voter-registration-democrat-republican-independent/

[DFW]

37. I'm having trouble with those numbers

One full percent of four million voters is 40,000 votes, and yet you say the loss of a little more than that is well over 100,000 votes, or two and a half per cent, which seems like a lot.

[Amishman]

38. The percentage is of the whole, not our base

if measuring just our party, going from 4,000,436 voters down to 3,894,977 would indeed be a decline of about 2.5% in two years.

[DFW]

44. I get it, thanks!

[CTyankee]

26. Why is PA even iffy?

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. Rural PA is deep red

It will come down to turnout.

[CTyankee]

28. has anyone done an analysis of PA's deep red voters?

Things such as age and voting frequency. Can women "outvote" male voters in deep red parts of the state? Do we have any data on their voting participation since Roe was overturned?

[Amishman]

34. I live in rural PA, it's red and only getting redder

I wouldn't expect much help from rural women either.

The whole 'guns, God, and gays' conservative stereotype is absolutely alive and well. As the gap on those issues between the parties widen, if anything the polarization on it gets worse. One of my wife's female cousins recently mentioned they dumped cable because they were tired of seeing commercials for 'drag queen shows' (RuPaul I'm guessing) and 'gays on every show' (obviously an exaggeration on her part). My niece built an AK-47 out of parts with her dad, and talks about wanting to do shooting competitions. It's very common to see bible quotes on signs along roads out here (I pass multiple just driving to the post office).

It's a widening social / cultural divide, one that I do not see being bridgeable. Years ago I thought running blue dog candidates was the answer for the urban / rural divide, but I don't even think that's feasible anymore.

What is confusing me instead is losing ground in the suburbs. The red shift in PA voter registration isn't just in rural areas.

The only silver lining is McCormick isn't gaining traction as Casey's framing him as an outsider from Connecticut pretty much sunk him before he could get momentum.

[CTyankee]

35. Is there any data suggesting shifts within demographics such as level of education?

If they are that worked up over cable it has to do with who is delivering the message that they detest. Rural people by definition are not in high population areas and probably not exposed to people who aren't like them.

[Amishman]

40. Can't find it right now, but I've read in the past we are struggling with non-college educated voters

which matches the maps where we are losing ground faster in the NE and SW ends of the state, where we had a stronger blue collar support in the past.

[Wiz Imp]

53. Dems have actually won 15 of the last 20 statewide elections in PA

Includes Pres, Gov, Atty Gen, Aud Gen, Treasurer & US Senate going back to 2012. PA is actually becoming more and more Democratic. Dems have won 3 consecutive Governor elections for the first time ever and have 2 Dem Senators for the first time in a long time. The key is turnout in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties. If voters turn out there, the Repubs don't have a chance.

[Amishman]

55. If you think our voter lead going from 1mm to 350k is going bluer then I don't know what to say

08 we had a million voter advantage in registration. It's down to 350k and still falling.

We lost the state in 2016 - for the first time since 1988. 2020 was 1.2%.

This state is drifting the wrong way, it just hasn't materialized in statewide results much due to the Pubs running particularly bad candidates the past few cycles.

Twenty years ago we talked about demographic inevitability - that the Pubs would cease to be competitive in a few cycles. It never happened because trends shifted. PA is shifting now, and it is moving away from us. This state is purple enough mow that a Republican asshole whose loons stormed the Capital might still win here.

[Wiz Imp]

58. Sorry, but I strongly disagree.

Democrats have done better statewide over the last 12 years than ever before. That is a fact. Ignoring Arlen Specters last year in the Senate after he switched parties (but was elected as a repub), before 2022, the Democrats had 2 US Senators in PA at the same time for exactly 2 years (1945-46) since the Civil War. They flipped the state house in 2022 for the first time since 2010 despite it still being extremely gerrymandered. They own a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court and an 8-6 majority on the Superior Court.

I don't care about registrations. They don't necessarily tell you anything. I am not a registered Democrat yet have never voted for a non-Democrat in my life. While Dem registrations have gone down, independents (like me) have skyrocketed. Probably alot of consistent democrat voters in those numbers. The suburban Philly counties used to be republican strongholds. They are all now overwhelmingly Democratic. That is where the population is and continues to grow. All those rural areas which vote republican have been hemorrhaging population for at least the last 30 years. The past 2 Presidential elections have been close but the governor and senate races have not. Trump barely won (44000) and Joe Biden won by twice that margin. This year will likely be close again, I won't argue with that. But long term trends in the state definitely favor Democrats.

[lindysalsagal]

30. Right. There's a lot of Ohio in PA

[ok_cpu]

42. I did the route 30 / 172 ride from eastern OH

to Pittsburgh (hooray IKEA!) a couple of weeks ago and that is the rubiest of reds.

[MistakenLamb]

17. If Trump wins PA, NV, GA and AZ he is winning WI MI and NC

Demographics would support a win similar to his 2016 Electoral Victory

The race as I see it is either going to be a Harris victory between 280-ish and 350 Electoral College votes or a Trump one around 305 to 311

[Self Esteem]

24. I agree. Elections don't happen in a vacuum.

If Harris loses reliably blue Nevada and then Pennsylvania, it's hard to imagine that not trickling over into other states.

There's a reason MI, PA and WI all went Trump in 2016: the conditions that led to one going red was there for all three. That isn't likely to change in November (and didn't change in 2020).

[lindysalsagal]

31. Makes sense.

[Cosmocat]

50. Correct, to be clear

NC isn't going blue if PA goes red.

[Self Esteem]

52. It's not just NC. I doubt GA goes blue too if Harris loses PA.

And I suspect she'll probably lose WI and MI with it. We'll have a map very similar to 2016 with maybe Nevada shifting Trump in that scenario.

Conversely, if Harris wins PA, that isn't a guarantee she wins GA or NC lol

But I do think she'd win MI and WI and probably the election (even losing NV gets her the win if she wins ME CD 2 or NE CD 2.

[lindysalsagal]

18. Ok, sorry. New prediction: We lose Nebraska, but take Nevada and still win.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/kbY7G

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. Your scenario still seems unlikely

But I’m guessing you were trying to depict a scenario where Harris could lose PA and still win.

She indeed has multiple paths to the White House, unlike Trump, who almost certainly needs to win PA, NC and either GA or AZ.

[arlyellowdog]

19. Giving what I can bc Harris/Walz team is double teaming PA

Voting in PA starts soon. Every Harris/Walz vote in PA will be found.

[arlyellowdog]

21. And you can tell both parties know Virginia is blue

[lindysalsagal]

48. I certainly hope that's true!

[helpisontheway]

56. I don't know. There was a poll last week that showed Kamala up 3. I can't believe it is that close. Nt

[ITAL]

22. I'm playing pretty conservative

Last edited Wed Aug 28, 2024, 01:01 PM - Edit history (1)

I have it at Harris 297; Trump 241. Potentially I think Harris could score more like 330-350 EVs, but I'm not brave enough to call that yet.

[bluestarone]

23. IF this election turns out THAT close

I fear THIS Supreme Court will get involved some way to give it to TFG. I just gotta hope the Dems. get a blow out!!

[surfered]

25. It needs to be a landslide to prevent any GOP shenanigans

And to humiliate Trump so much he crawls back under that rock he slithered out of.

[Stargleamer]

33. Why do you think North Carolina is more winnable. . .

Than Pennsylvania?

Also as pointed out we only win 1 EV in Nebraska. Trump wins in your scenario

I do think that Nevada can be won; polls consistently showed Masto losing there, but she came through

[lindysalsagal]

36. On MSNBC this morning, Steve K was saying there are new black voters in NC who are coming out for Kamala

PA is more settled, over time. But NC is more dynamic. Plus, there are northerners retiring to NC all the time.

[Stargleamer]

41. I don't think Pennsylvania is doing this kind of cruelty. . .

https://apnews.com/article/voting-laws-voter-id-republicans-north-carolina-1c2d5b033620244a7ea5012adf669b30

“They are trying to change the laws in order to gain significant advantage by restricting people’s voting rights.” - Roy Cooper, from the article

[helpisontheway]

57. Maybe because they have a MAGA Nut running for governor in NC

However, some people are willing to split the ticket.

[mcar]

39. We are not going to lose PA

I doubt we'll lose AZ or GA, either. NV is a bit iffy but I think the unions will come through.

[tritsofme]

45. Elections do not happen in a vacuum. There is about zero chance we lose all those states while winning NC.

[Mountainguy]

46. Not a scenario where Harris wins NC but not PA.

[ZonkerHarris]

47. We are going to win PA, AZ, and NV

NC and VA too.

[lindysalsagal]

49. I just found this article about PA and did some hunting and pecking: PA's spiking Blue

https://penncapital-star.com/commentary/pennsylvania-democrats-finally-make-voter-registration-gains-after-harris-ascension/

Pennsylvania Democrats finally make voter registration gains after Harris’ ascension
Nick Field
August 15, 2024 7:33 am

(I know this article is almost 2 weeks old, but it shows the momentum)
Nick Field August 15, 2024 7:33 am

What a difference a few weeks can make.

Just three weeks ago, Pennsylvania Republicans were cruising along as they continued to eat into the Democratic Party’s registration advantage in the Keystone State. Of course, that last voter registration update happened to be published right after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
As one might expect, the largest shift of all came in Philadelphia, perhaps aided by last week’s Harris-Walz rally at Temple University. The Pennsylvania Democratic Party also saw gains in three of Philly’s four collar counties, where the Harris-Walz team will need massive margins to win the Commonwealth’s crucial 19 electoral votes.

Conversely, Republicans continue to post impressive numbers in Bucks, which flipped to a GOP plurality last month for the first since spring 2008. They’re also making up ground in Northampton, the state’s other Obama-Trump-Biden county.

At the same time, the party did see a bit of slippage in neighboring Lehigh, which is worth keeping an eye on. If Harris is indeed picking up steam among the state’s Hispanic voters, we’ll see signs of it in the Lehigh Valley.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

From me: I looked up registrations by county, according to the largest voting counties. In the 9, Biden won 6 in 2020, lost 3.

In the 6 PA that rose all were high for Biden in 2020. The 3 that didn't were the 3 Biden lost.

So, this rise looks smaller if you look at those long lists in the article, county after county, but they're in little, rural towns where they're only showing handfuls of votes.

The article is misleading. The huge vote-rich counties mostly rose for Dems, and the Republicans that rose were half as many.

The new registrations are largely in Harris's favor, And in a state this tight, you don't need much of a margin to win. Looks like Harris has it.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/_ENR/General/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=1&districtId=1&ElectionID=83&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

[BOSSHOG]

51. LETS STRIVE TO GET RID OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE CANCER

Let’s rely on one person one vote to elect our President freely and fairly. Let’s not rely on the slave owners crutch. Let’s hope democracy does not die from a self inflicted cancer.

[pecosbob]

54. Rosen's leading Brown by fourteen points in Nevada

There is, also the reproductive rights ballot referendum...