'More Than Triple-Checked It': Data Expert Shocked by New Dem Voter Registration Numbers

[babylonsister]

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/maya-boddie/111384/more-than-triple-checked-it-data-expert-shocked-by-new-dem-voter-registration-numbers

‘More Than Triple-Checked It’: Data Expert Shocked by New Dem Voter Registration Numbers
by Maya Boddie | August 29, 2024 - 5:34am

— from Alternet

snip//

On Wednesday, Tom Bonier, with the data firm Target Smart, shared new numbers with CBS News' Major Garrett, according to Mediate.

"We're tracking something really interesting right now — it’s a surge in voter registration in key groups ahead of the November election," Garrett said. "Among young Black women, registration is up more than 175%. You heard that right. More than 175% in 13 states. That’s compared to the same time in 2020. This, according to the data firm Target Smart, registration has also increased among young Latinas and Black Americans."

Garrett then asked Bonier, "Could that possibly be right? If you must have triple-checked this or many more times than that."

The data expert replied, "You’re right to repeat the number because I more than triple-checked it. It’s incredibly unusual to see changes in voter registration that are anywhere close to this. I mean, there might be 175% is almost tripling of registration rates among this specific group. You just don’t see that sort of thing happen in elections normally."

Responding to the question of what the increase says about voter "enthusiasm," Bonier said, "Tells us a lot. The reason that we look at this voter registration data is because the polls will only tell us so much. The polls tell us how people are going to vote. They don’t tell us if or who is going to vote. It’s a big question.'"

He emphasized, "The best indicator of that is the actions that people are taking. Number one, registering to vote. Someone who says, I want to participate in this election. And so as we’ve seen these questions of which side has the advantage and intensity and enthusiasm, we look for changes in voter registration like this. People who are newly registered to vote are much more likely to vote on Election Day."

[FSogol]

1. GOTV!

[mucifer]

2. I would think those are people they don't kick off voter roles as easily because

it's people who haven't voted in a while who they tend to kick off.

It's insane that I'm even saying this. I wish we had a democracy. Maybe someday.

In the meantime, Yay for more people registered!!!

[bucolic_frolic]

3. It's 4 years. A lot of people moved post-pandemic.

That might adjust the gains downward a bit if they haven't screened for it.

[GusBob]

4. "young black women"

I agree with your points but I would like to know the raw numbers like:

?how young=have they never voted before
?175% of what #
?and in all 13 states across the board or is 175% an average of the 13, etc

I suck at math and stats

[ancianita]

6. That kind of data isn't publicly available; it's sold. Parties that buy that data keep it close, tend not to reveal it

[unc70]

9. NC data is public

In NC, most of this data is freely available online at the State Board of Elections web site. Not only the summary data, much of the raw data. NC SBOE

[ancianita]

32. Got a link to the NC data? and how about PA?

I gave a reasonable answer. Since private companies often buy states' data, because it pretty common knowledge now that state DMV's sell their data.

If state data are hard for the public to find, but if you or others here know where to find it, then they should answer the question GusBob asked, instead of 'correcting' a reasonable explanation by a poster.

[unc70]

37. NC data is easy to find by the public

Could do a web search which would find what you are requesting.

Or

Go to http://www.ncsboe.gov and follow the menus there. You can even download files of almost all the historical data.

You're welcome.

[CanonRay]

11. It's 175% increase over the same period in 2020.

I saw a chart.

[ancianita]

39. See reply #37

[Lonestarblue]

5. I hope a lot of these new registrations are in swing states.

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

7. It's also an indication

of the fact that almost 40% of eligible voters, don't. So if even 5 or 10% registered that would be a huge number.

[lees1975]

8. Polls tell us what the media wants us to believe about how people are going to vote.

They're scrambling now to figure out how this enthusiasm out of Democrats, which is also pulling in Independent voters by the millions, is going to play out. They're still playing the "it will be close" card, until they see more raw data. Looking at these registration numbers, they are behind the curve right now by a considerable margin. And they're still hedging their bets that Republicans are going to be enthusiastic Trumpies.

I still have a lot of Republican friends in my circle, and enthusiasm for Trump is well below where it was in either 2016 or 2020. If I ventured a guess, I'd say he's lost 35% of their votes from 2020.

[barbtries]

36. the man is exhausting.

I figure even his voters must be as exhausted as I am. Kamala Harris is a breath of fresh air!

Nine long years living under a cloud. The sun came out and it's glorious.

[calimary]

55. Nicely put, barbtries!

Maybe that nine-year cloud is finally clearing away. It’s certainly thinning.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

42. How is he going to get more votes than last time?

[ms liberty]

10. Women who haven't been voters are now registering to vote in droves

Last edited Thu Aug 29, 2024, 11:28 AM - Edit history (1)

Hmm, wonder why? Could it be having a woman at the top of the ticket? The unprecedented explosion of laws regulating women's bodies? The blatant misogyny by conservatives? All of the above?

Women have noticed it all, and we really don't appreciate the conservative's intrusions into our private lives. I hope and believe people are going to be very surprised on election night.

[Submariner]

12. Maga Wives?

Is there any data on the wives who are forced to vote maga by their husbands?

Will they tell their maga spouse to kiss off, I’m voting for VP Harris?

[BattleRow]

18. And how do the MAGA husbands

actually know WHO their indoctrinated wife actually voted for?

Are they allowed in the voting booth with them?

[Demobrat]

47. Mail-in ballots can be scrutinized

before they are mailed.

[yellowdogintexas]

49. not in my voting location!!! If I see someone trying to horn in on a voter, I will ask them to step away

I will call Law Enforcement if necessary.

[Hekate]

52. The voting booth is private; ie the secret ballot. What comes to your home may not be secret from fellow residents...

… whether a nosy roommate or a controlling spouse.

My husband and I are both registered Democrats who trust each other and discuss who and what we are voting for with each other. We are signed up for mail-in ballots because it is easy in California.

However, if I had the misfortune to be married to someone who was controlling, I’d opt for going to the polls and keeping my opinions to myself.

[GopherGal]

24. That's one of the arguments against mail-in voting...

Filling out the mail-in ballots in the home may be more susceptible to spousal pressure/coercion than in-person voting.

I would imagine the same women who are susceptible to this coercion would not be likely to be open about it with pollsters gathering such data.

[Submariner]

25. Thanks for educating me on this matter GG

I failed to tie in mail in voting to inviting over the shoulder peeking by the bossy spouse.

[GopherGal]

26. Well, I suspect the GOP supposed "voter-fraud" angle

focuses more on people marking ballots "on behalf of" the less mentally aware. Somehow I don't see them being overly concerned with domestic violence threats.

[summer_in_TX]

13. As someone who registers voters in Central Texas

I’ve never seen this level of interest in voter registration before. I worked a shift at a high school yesterday, where some of the students are 18 or will be by the election. We had steady interest in signing up, plus quite a few who wanted to make sure their parents registered. We gave them mail-in voter registration applications to take home.

During one 2 hr event at Freshman Orientation at Texas State University last week, they registered 137 students to vote. and that’s just one LWV event. Betos Everett was there earlier this week, I don’t know how many they registered. And we are going back repeatedly to register more students between now and the Texas deadline to register on October 7.

[Hekate]

53. That is wonderful news 🌊🌊

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

57. So great to hear!!! I'd LOVE to see the last of Ted Cruz 🤮

And Josh Hawley from MO — God what a a$$!

[BumRushDaShow]

14. "They don't tell us if or who is going to vote."

Oh they most certainly DO insist that THEY know and are going to tell you "who is going to vote".

They arrogantly call that "Likely voters" and they make shit up about who is in that group as they go along, oversampling these fictional (mostly RW/MAGat) people. And then claim to "correct" for the population, which is why their "polls" are more and more fucked up, and end up failing outside of their own MOEs when the "actuals" come in.

[summer_in_TX]

15. Registration excitement is huge.

I’ve never seen this level of interest in voter registration before. I worked a shift at a high school yesterday, where some of the students are 18 or will be by the election. We had steady interest in signing up, plus quite a few who wanted to make sure their parents registered. We gave them mail-in voter registration applications to take home.

During one 2 hr event at Freshman Orientation at Texas State University last week, they registered 137 students to vote. and that’s just one LWV event. Beto’s organization was there earlier this week, I don’t know how many they registered. And we are going back repeatedly to register more students between now and the Texas deadline to register on October 7.

[CrispyQ]

30. I read however a person votes in their first election they almost always stick with that party throughout their lives.

Not that they always vote, but they identify with being that party.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

43. My first vote was for Mondale

[yellowdogintexas]

50. my first presidential vote was for Hubert Humphrey

My actual first vote was for a Circuit Court Judge in Kentucky in 1967. I was barely 18** and newly registered to vote. The candidate was a family friend; he won the race and served for many years. In 1983 he performed our marriage ceremony.

Since I lived in KY I could vote at age 18 in 1967

[EarnestPutz]

48. We're still dealing with those idiot "college students for Reagan" so that must be true. They were....

…….18 to 22 year-olds in 1980 and are now retired and love Fat Donny.

[Zoomie1986]

54. My party identification started well before I could vote

My family was all hardcore Democrat. It was the norm to work on campaigns. Some of the family became local party chairs and even elected officials (local level). Three of my uncles were DNC delegates.

So I never even thought about how to vote. I knew my family would disown me if I even thought about voting for traitors.

[LAS14]

16. Super exciting!! Thanks!!!

It's these numbers more than polls about voting that I feel are the most revealing. These people will come out to vote!! NEW votes. I bet not many are Republicans!

[redstatebluegirl]

17. Now we just need to get them to vote!

[Historic NY]

19. In numbers so high that Donald Trump can't rig the election

[DENVERPOPS]

41. the individual states is where the corruption takes place

OR, the USSC circa 2000. This group of Republican USSC justices would gladly jump right in again and declare they have the authority, just as they did in 2000, when in reality they had no legal grounds to decide anything since States Rights should have prevailed....
The courts in Fla said there SHOULD be a re-count, the USSC said "STOP THE RECOUNT" in 2000.

[sheshe2]

20. We are voting 💙

[CaptainTruth]

21. I'm really glad to see this getting traction!

And thanks to the admins for making my post with the data a Featured post for more exposure!

[Frank D. Lincoln]

22. I'm overjoyed by the information. Thanks for this thread. nt.

[Playingmantis]

23. GOP and Trump are about to respond , seriously

with more lies, manufactured outrage and voter suppression...

[Happy Hoosier]

27. LFG!!! NT

[Qutzupalotl]

28. Note that all these voters are not part of pollsters' likely voter models,

since they have never voted in the past. They are not on the radar. However, they are extremely motivated and likely to vote. This is why I believe we will outperform most polls and have wins in surprising places.

[CrispyQ]

29. And women will make sure the people in their lives actually vote!

My husband was a non-voter & I let him slide until 2004 when I said, "You will vote." I put out my first yard sign that year & volunteered as an election judge & was a judge every election after until CO went to vote-by-mail. My experience is that there are 3-4 women to every man volunteer, maybe more.

[Bayard]

31. Batten the hatches!

Tsunami coming in!

[liberalla]

34. That is a beautiful wave! The curl, the movement, the shades of blue and green...

What energy!!! . . . . . . . . like the dems this year!

[ShazzieB]

33. All I can say is...

[DinahMoeHum]

35. Woody Guthrie must be smiling. . .

[markodochartaigh]

40. "More than triple checked"

Well, I hope that Mr Bonier never needs to get a job with the mainstream media. They would never hire him.

/s

[spanone]

44. K&R

[republianmushroom]

45. A change is coming.

[Gore1FL]

46. I wish they provided numbers.

Percentages can mean anything.

[yellowdogintexas]

51. meanwhile in Texas, Powered by People is registering people in droves

Here is the email I received today from Powered by People, Beto's voter registration juggernaut

Powered By People
Dear CLAIRE,

I just came off the road where we had our biggest week of voter registration yet – triple the number of registrations from our previous high!

Here’s how we did it:

Monday we were in north Texas outside of the University of Texas at Arlington library. Despite the 109-degree heat (!!) we had long lines of students who wanted to get registered, pledge to vote and stay in touch with our volunteers over the coming months.

Tuesday we were also outside, this time at the University of North Texas in Denton. Another scorcher! It was so hot that many of our volunteers’ phones shut down. But we quickly shifted to a paper-based intake and kept up the pace of registering and staying in touch with these new voters.

Wednesday found us at Texas A&M in College Station. So many students lined up to get registered to vote inside the Memorial Student Center that we were asked to move outside, where we continued to register and get contact information for each and every student we met.

Thursday we were at Houston Community College and University of Houston. Both were phenomenal – hundreds of students gathering with us because we are their best and easiest chance of getting registered. In a state with no online voter registration, no automatic registration and no same-day registration, our Powered by People volunteers are the difference for busy students who otherwise would stay out of this next election.

It's a lot of work, but this is the best way to win elections – registering likely Democrats where they are and staying in touch with them through the election.

That’s why I’m excited to be back on the road today traveling to Austin, San Antonio, San Marcos and Houston this week.

I couldn’t do this without your help. So, please pitch in if you can – your contribution supports the only voter registration program in the country that:

Is volunteer led

Exclusively targets likely Democrats to register

Ensures each new Democratic voter has a volunteer sherpa to personally guide them through the process of voting
See you out there!

Beto
Powered by People volunteer







Donate

[CrispyQ]

56. 109 degree heat. Holy shit!

Did their phones stop working cuz it was so hot or did the system go down? Either way, damn! And they did most of this outside. That's some dedication.