****BREAKING**** Exclusive: Kamala Harris surges ahead of Donald Trump in latest poll taken after DNC

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Democrat Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Republican Donald Trump, 48%-43%, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found.

The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June, when Trump had led President Joe Biden in the survey by nearly four points.

The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone Sunday through Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. With the election approaching, the survey is now measuring likely voters; previous polls were of registered voters.

...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/29/kamala-harris-donald-trump-suffolk-usa-today-poll-results/74984967007/

[Johnny2X2X]

1. In before the same several DU posters crap all over this news

She's ahead and her momentum is still going strong. It's OK to say that while at the same time acknowledging there's a long way to go and we have to work harder than ever still.

[Gaytano70]

5. This.

[obamanut2012]

14. Thank you

Seriously, the doomposting is getting tough to read.

[sarisataka]

18. Is it acceptable to mention

the double standards regarding polls if we don't criticize the polls themselves?

[Happy Hoosier]

19. I dunno... my criticism of polls still stands.

I think this poll probably underestimates her support. I'm happy to see it report a lead, but I think it probably underestimates her support by a couple points.

[ananda]

20. Yes. GOTV and we got this!

And it feels good right now!

[FlyingPiggy]

34. Exactly and well said. Tired of the constant hand wringing naysayers.

[lindysalsagal]

2. "the survey is now measuring likely voters; previous polls were of registered voters." Important!

But I still think they're under-polling women, who will be voting in droves. They're using sample sizes from 2020 and 2016.

[getagrip_already]

9. Likely voters are voters who have voted recently..

So lv polls wont poll younger voters or those who havent voted recently.

Both of those could cause a large under count in this election.

A lot of roe voters, democracy voters, and anti govt intrusion voters may come out of voting retirement for this election.

[obamanut2012]

15. It also doesn't count the scads of newly registered young women

[onetexan]

27. and young men. 40M Gen Z are eligible to vote this election. Majority lean left. The yough GOTV is going strong & they

w deliver for Harris Walz, i'm confident of it.

[RedSpartan]

3. "Landline" LOL

Yes, and cell phone, too, but no one Gen X or younger answers those for an unknown number.

I suspect the spread is even bigger toward Harris.

[Norbert]

6. Several of my friends have no landline.

I am hoping this is like when Herbert Hoover was leading FDR IN 1932 and polling by telephone backed them up. Many households back then didn't have phones or couldn't afford them.

[central scrutinizer]

11. I have no landline and I don't answer unknown callers

And I’m a boomer. Maybe I should rethink this in case I am being polled

[Oopsie Daisy]

25. If the caller ID indicated that it was a political poll

... Then I would consider taking a chance and answering the line.

[niyad]

29. I am an old boomer, and I do not answer my cell phone to any number not

in my contact list (that is what voicemail is for!), nor do I have a land line. I blessed the day caller ID became available on landline phones, made ignoring people even more fun.

[kansasobama]

4. Needed this after disappointing Emerson polls

Thank you

[obamanut2012]

16. lol they weren't disappointing

[33taw]

7. I get so many polling questions that I find it difficult to know "on the fly" which ones are reliable.

Does anyone know of a link with reliable polling companies?

[Johnny2X2X]

8. This is one of the highest rated pollsters on 538

They're ranked 7th overall, ahead of Emerson.

[mucifer]

10. So one point above the margin of error is a surge?

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. The surge is the movement from the previous poll, which is significant

But you are right to question the lead in the context of the MOE.

For a lead to be statistically significant, in a two candidate race, it must be double the MOE.

[TheRickles]

32. I thought the definition of MOE was that any lead greater than the MOE is considered to be statistically significant.

I've never heard of MOEx2 being the criterion, but I'm willing to learn.

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. MOE applies to the results for each candidate, not the margin between them

So Harris 48, Trump 43 with a MOE of +/-3.1 for each candidate could range from

Harris 51.1, Trump 39.9 to
Trump 46.1, Harris 44.9

And that’s assuming the sample was a true representation of the actual electorate that shows up to vote in November.

That’s why, in a two candidate race, a candidate’s lead must be more than twice the MOE to be statistically significant.

[TheRickles]

35. Got it - thanks!

[obamanut2012]

17. Seriously? Yes, it is a surge

[Bucky]

22. Sadly so

We have a lot of work to do.

Winning the election is job #1. Job#2 is ending Trumpism. This con artist and his crew's hated of democracy needs to be embarrassed out of the Republican Party. Otherwise the cancer will come back.

[dchill]

24. Yes. Anything else I can help you with?

[yellowcanine]

13. Probably underestimates the surge in registrations for Harris in battleground states.

So all in all, a most satisfactory result for now.

[Bucky]

21. 5% is good... but still disappointing

How can 43% of Americans be this irresponsible?

[NoMoreRepugs]

23. So let me get this straight.

Increase in women voters for Harris vs the SlobFather.
Increase in Black and Hispanic voters.
Large increase in new voter registrations.
Huge shift among low income voters.
Nonstop stories of disenchanted Republican voters.
The RoeVember phenomenon.

Somehow this translates into only a 7-8% swing??

Riiiiiggggghhhhhttttttt….

[Wednesdays]

26. Great news, but TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED

Get out the vote! Get out the vote! GOTV! GOTV!

[czarjak]

28. Overcome Wih Kamala

[underpants]

30. Good news but there are still a lot of undecideds

[ffr]

31. Shhhhh

Let's just keep this our little secret until after the election.

[pat_k]

36. Nice! And even better, Suffolk is rated 2.9 of 3 by 538 (nt)