Tim Sheehy's Chances of Beating Jon Tester in Crucial Montana Senate Race

[riversedge]

I am very nervous about losing the Senate..



I don’t expect you to chip in every time I post—I’m always grateful for whatever you can give, whenever you can give it. But with all donations being triple-matched, any amount you can give will go three times as far. Will you help us get out of this pickle by pitching in now?

Link to tweet

Tim Sheehy's Chances of Beating Jon Tester in Crucial Montana Senate Race
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-beating-republicans-bad-news-montana-poll-1946768

Updated Aug 31, 2024 at 11:00 AM EDT


Senator Backs Bill Expanding Care For War Veterans: It's 'Righting A Wrong'
By Andrew Stanton


Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester is locked in a close election race against Republican Tim Sheehy in a battle that could determine which party controls the Senate, according to recent polls.

Control of the Senate may hinge on the Montana race. Although the state has a solid Republican lean, Tester has proven over the years to be a candidate who can outrun other Democrats, securing his third term in 2018. But 2024 may be a more difficult year, due to higher turnout in a state that is expected to easily back former President Donald Trump in the White House race against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Democrats, however, cannot afford to lose Tester's seat without picking up another seat. Democrats currently hold a narrow Senate majority of 51-49, and are not making a major play for the seat being vacated by Democratic West Virginia Joe Manchin, as the state is viewed as among the most conservative in the country.

This means they must hold onto every other Senate seat they currently hold or flip a seat elsewhere in order to have a chance to keep control of the chamber. Their best opportunities outside of Montana are Florida and Texas, but the Republican incumbents in those contests are viewed as having the advantage over their Democratic challengers......................

[Arne]

1. I want Montana to return to sanity.

Since the amount was triple matched, had to donate.

[Coexist]

2. I literally just donated yesterday, but if this triple match is real

(who exactly matches them when this happens? I'm genuinely curios) I'll kick in a little more

[riversedge]

6. Someone or some group who really, really wants Tester to WIN!! Thank you

for donating

[GB_RN]

10. These XXX% Match Things Are A Gimmick.

Assuming the money is going to the candidates’s campaign funds, and not a Super PAC, there’s no way this works. Each person who is allegedly providing matching funds, has to face the federal campaign finance maximum, same as you. You can give up to $3300, per election, per candidate. So, you can donate the maximum twice: Once for the primary and once for the general election. These alleged matching donation people would very quickly hit the max and that’s it for them.

What this does is get you to feel an urgency to donate. Another tactic to drive up the urgency you feel is to say they’re up against some filing deadline. It’s all kinda sleazy and underhanded, so it’s bad enough when Democrats use this tactic. But I’ve seen similar pitches by Republicans and theirs are worse. If I’m not mistaken, Cantaloupe Caligula the Corpulent has done this on multiple occasions, claiming match percentages that would make Satan blush.

And before anyone gets pissed and says I’m bashing the Democrats, that’s 100% not the case. I’m simply explaining a fund raising tactic that both sides use, and generally to good results.

[radical noodle]

19. I've found it explained this way...

"Actually, they don’t say that they will match your donation. They just say that your donation will be matched.

The way it works is that there’s someone willing to donate, let’s say, a million dollars. If he does, the party gets one million dollars. However, if instead of donating a million dollars, he donates 500 thousand dollars and pledges to match other donations up to 500 thousand.

If the matching donations come in, he still donates a million dollars but the party receives an additional 500 thousand dollars in donations for a total of 1.5 million dollars. And even if no one donates a single additional dollars, the original donor is still free to donate the additional 500 thou."

It obviously must go to a supporting PAC or something that's not under the federal limits.

[tritsofme]

3. A Democratic majority is almost impossible without Tester. This is the most important Senate race this year, bar none

[WarGamer]

8. Hogan v Alsobrooks might be more crucial.

[MontanaMama]

4. I believe our majority in the senate

hinges on Jon Tester winning this race. Our state Supreme Court keeps upholding abortion rights. It’s on the ballot again in November…Montana somehow is holding on to common sense with a death grip. Donate to Jon Tester if you can. His opponent is as bad as they get.

[Skvngr]

5. Has he endorsed Kamela/Walz yet

Me thinks he'd have a better shot if he does..

[tritsofme]

7. Uh....Harris will be lucky to crack 40% in that state, Tester should do whatever he has to do to win

And I don’t think anyone knows what that is better than Tester himself.

[Coexist]

9. Yup. He can call her names for all I care - He is a good Senator and needs to win this race

[displacedvermoter]

12. When he called on President Biden to step

down, did he believe that having a black liberal woman from California taking his place would improve his chances with the voters of Montana? Or was he planning on the Carville mini-primary plan nominating a ticket more to the liking of his constituents?

[Grown2Hate]

11. Done! Every Senate seat we're defending is a MUST win since we're losing WV. This is the only one I don't feel

pretty good about, unfortunately, so Tester will get my money for sure!

[ananda]

13. Just donated again.

I hope a lot of people will also donate!

[RidinWithHarris]

14. I contributed to Tester last night after seeing a post here where a Republican talked like Montana was theirs

Then I checked the polling. I thought Tester was doing well, but apparently it's looking a bit dicey, so I chipped in.

I believe Montana has an abortion rights measure on the ballot in November too. That should help Tester out.

[BlueSky3]

15. I've been donating to Sen. Tester

on a monthly basis for about a year. I wish the race weren’t this close.

[moniss]

16. A little more about Sheehy

is he can't seem to get a straight story out about his leaving his military career and he appears to be more than happy to make slurs about indigenous people. Here's a couple of links.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/tim-sheehy-tells-different-story-of-navy-discharge-than-his-book-does

https://www.charkoosta.com/news/senate-candidate-tim-sheehy-makes-questionable-racially-tinged-remarks-about-crow-reservation/article_afc75344-6725-11ef-9065-afb44493d9ff.html

[summer_in_TX]

17. Your post pushed me off of the sidelines.

Thanks, riversedge. This Texan gave my first donation to Jon. Yes, it's important!

[Sugarcoated]

18. I gave

Go Tester!