*****HIGHLY RATED ABC IPSOS LIKELY VOTER POLL****** Harris 52% TFG 46%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

?w=750

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-abc-news-ipsos-poll-convention-bounce-widens-gap-women/story?id=113246534

[tavernier]

1. Yes!

Still need more, though. I’m greedy!

[displacedvermoter]

2. Too bad she didn't get a "Convention Bounce"

cause then she would have a real lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Crappy lede, my friend. I was almost scared to look for the horserace results.

[displacedvermoter]

6. I neglected the sarcasm thingy

But, again, many smart folks here said there would be no convention bounce as she got it beforehand, and most voters "have already made up their minds long ago".

Should this hold, and she wins popular vote by five percent, hard to see her losing EC.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I was saying the ABC lede was crappy

Could have said race is steady, Harris holds on to lead.

[displacedvermoter]

13. If it was a Trump lead, especially over Biden, it would be

an insurmountable lead as the numbers "are now locked in".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The "Biden is doomed" framing inured to our benefit

[displacedvermoter]

25. I guess

[CTyankee]

27. Do you worry, like I do, about the Trump people cheating, e.g. manipulation of vote totals by state election vote

counters who manipulate votes in certain states in order to get a "win" for Trump?

[displacedvermoter]

30. If the popular vote totals are high enough, which should mean

a 300 plus EV win, with perhaps a win in either Ohio, Florida, or Texas, then I don't think they can cheat enough to pull it off. I also believe that Joe Biden's last great service to his country will be making sure this election is conducted safely and securely.

[CTyankee]

35. I know, I'm a worrier. I fear a coordinated plot in toss up states to "deliver" the votes there. I know I'm sounding a

a little crazy but I remember thinking how it looked like Hillary won and then SURPRISE!

[displacedvermoter]

36. I will never forget when the networks called Florida

for Gore in 2000, and it looked like a sure victory. Then an hour or so later, the votes suddenly went Bush's way. The rest is history.

So I know where you are coming from!

[ailsagirl]

31. Absolutely

I would put nothing past those creeps.

[Bucky]

42. That is a reasonable thing to worry about.

If you're in a swing state, you could volunteer to be a poll watcher.

Manipulating the vote after they've been cast is pretty damn difficult, if not impossible. Socking away boxes of votes after they've been cast is extremely rare, but that's the ideal place for poll watching.

The real cheating is in voter suppression and voters of more limited means having the right documentation to clear suppressive ID-check procedures. These last two are areas where volunteering can do a bit of good

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

3. OMG I hate the media

Last edited Sun Sep 1, 2024, 09:50 AM - Edit history (1)

All negative about Harris and she 52-46 lead which is big in nowadays political climate. If this was a Trump lead the headline would have been positive for Trump

[kansasobama]

11. Not positive

It would have been portrayed as a blowout.

[newdayneeded]

19. The word Landslide would be used

in every news cast.

[carpetbagger]

23. I'm blaming the electoral college.

Functionally 52-46 is as optimistic for Harris as 49-49 would be for Trump. If it stays there, she wins, but I think there's a 3.5 pct correction.

[senseandsensibility]

38. CNN has the same headline

No convention bounce. Nothing about how she's ahead, even.

[Rubyshoo]

4. K & R !!!

[arlyellowdog]

7. The election is determined by Phillies' fans?

That’s what I keep reading

[BOSSHOG]

26. Good thing it's not 1964

[Norbert]

9. I'm sure this lead will collapse at any time "Sarcasm"

Just trying to beat the MSM to it.

[Sky Jewels]

17. Just a sugar high...

Democrats are actually doomed, because … reasons.

[kansasobama]

10. Nate Silver would have had another type heading

He is running around with Trump favored although his polls show Harris lead. His model takes into account convention bounce. He discounts bounce and is overly alarmist about a tied PA poll. However, ABC says no convention bounce. MSM is so screwed.

If Trump were up by 4, they would have been screaming blowout.

I do agree PA polls are worrisome for us but over hyping is ridiculous. Mark Halperin in his 2way podcast always leads with how Trump will bounce back. These dictator lovers are working hard for Trump.

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. CAUTION: sample size/makeup and MOE for RV and LV not disclosed

Only data for sample size/partisan makeup and MOE for the full sample of adults was disclosed.

Consider these results cautiously.

[kansasobama]

14. When was the poll conducted

Granted it is high. I would say it is more like 3%. But, better than the Insider advantage which makes sure they are always +1 for Trump. This way they can always say they were within MOE whatever happens.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Do you post nearly the same thing on every poll thread?

If so, what’s the purpose to try to down play every single poll that shows Harris leading?

Did you downplay the polls that showed Trump beating Biden?

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. I examine the methodology for ALL polls

The increasingly unreliable performance of polls over the past several cycles should be cause for caution and skepticism from everyone.

Two of the most important data points are the sample size/makeup and MOE.

That information used to be routinely disclosed in all polls. When a pollster doesn’t disclose this information, especially for results they are trumpeting in headlines (in this case, for likely voters), that is a huge red flag that should not be ignored.

We must not be manipulated into either false confidence or panic by those who seek to profit from the attention we give their data.

My rule of thumb: no individual poll is worth celebrating or panicking over, and trends (movement, not averages) although less specific, are typically the most valuable information that can be gleaned from polls.

[Deminpenn]

39. Go to the link, scroll down

then click on the link to find full results on a PDF document. It gives the demographic breakdown, sample size and sampling error of 2%.

[Fiendish Thingy]

43. I did that before posting the first time

The pdf only contains sample information for the full sample of adults, not the smaller subgroups of registered and likely voters.

The smaller subgroups would have a larger MOE, with the smallest subgroup of likely voters having the largest MOE.

None of that is disclosed, nor is the makeup of those smaller subgroups, leaving many questions unanswerable:

How many men vs. women?
How many republicans/dems/independents
How many respondents from each region of the country?
What is the age breakdown of the sample subgroups?
What is the racial breakdown of the subgroups?

[tinrobot]

18. Why that man is even above 40% is beyond me.

[pat_k]

21. 28 years of FOX news is why

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219363634#post30

[Martin Eden]

20. There should be a decimal point between the 4 and 6

Seriously, the malignant buffoon should be rejected by all but a fringe minority of the ignorant and hateful.

[CTyankee]

28. Gotta be more than just a "fringe minority." There are "interests" in this country who want him to win in any way

possible. I worry that there are Trump operatives in the vote counting that can manipulate votes or throw them out due to a violation of some "regulation," resulting in a win for Trump.

[Martin Eden]

34. True, the greed of the oligarches is as bottomless as TFG's character

Most of their voter suppression is visible and/or predictable, but it looks like the Democratic Party is prepared to fight that battle.

[Ninga]

22. Go! Go! Go! Harris/walz! Run up the fucking score! More! More! More! It needs to be a crushing

win!
Work harder people! Fight those who will see the polls and think they don’t need to vote because she will win!

[PCIntern]

29. ...BUT...BUT...BUT....

There’s a 12 point margin of error so Trump could be leading by as much as SIX POINTS. That’s a HUGE lead!!!! Or is the margin of error twenty points? Could be!!! One thing we know: it’s going to be razor-close! Stay tuned!!!

[peggysue2]

32. The trend lines are irrefutable

Harris is on the rise. Trump has flat-lined. Simon Rosenberg may be prescient once again; he's been very bullish on a 55% election favoring Democrats this cycle.

Can we do it?

I'm certainly not going to mock the idea, even though I may be smoking Rosenberg's Hopium pipe.



Btw, this makes the upcoming debate an event not to be missed. Agent Orange's campaign is betting on a trajectory change following a strong debate performance.

They know they're in deep trouble.

[DontBelieveEastisEas]

41. Trend lines seem to be steady.

Harris +6
Aug. 9-13; Ipsos; LV --- Harris +6

Still +6

[lindysalsagal]

33. I found the Dates: Aug 23-27. Distribution: 29% dem 29%gqp 30% Indy

According to https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_affiliations_of_registered_voters

Dems are 38.3% of voters. R's are 30.3%. Indy and other are 40.1%.

So, this under-reports many Harris voters. Good news!

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based
Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Aug. 23-27, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national
sample of 2,496 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30 percent, Democrats-Republicansindependents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the
design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and
data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News survey methodology here.

[oasis]

37. We've got this. Keep working gang.

[DontBelieveEastisEas]

40. Aug. 9-13 Ipsos Harris +6 nt

[Bucky]

44. It's encouraging to see this. But remember it's not the popular vote that matters in this archaic republic

It's stupid, it's undemocratic, but it's still gonna be those 6-10 swing states that decide this election. These are the places where Republican voter suppression efforts matter the most. If you're in a purple state, Please volunteer to register, help new voters secure the right documents, and consider becoming a poll watcher to run interference in Republican voter intimidation efforts.

They can only win the ugly way and they know it.