My thinking As of 9-1 the current thinking is Harris will probably win.

[Matthew28]

As of 9-1 the current thinking is Harris will probably win.
3.5% nation popular vote win is my estimation based on serious polling state level polling, lower office polling and favorability. My ev is 293 for Harris, 245 for Trump!
This gives Harris: predicted real vote when it is said and done!
.7% win in Pa(2% poll wise comparably to 2016-2020).
2.5% win in Michigan(5% pollwise)
.8% win in Wis(3% pollwise)
.1% win in Ga
Neb second will be 2.5% Harris
Maine will likely give all its votes to Harris
Arizona will be Trump by .2%.
North Carolina will be Trump be .5%

The lower offices for senate and house are literal blow outs in these three states. Some showing their senate candidate up by 10-12%. Very healthy down ticket! The 2nd district of neb is 5% ahead in the polls and even the senate race is within 1%. Maine 2nd is very close if not polling ahead for Harris. Lets be honest Arizona if it was only on lower office support would likely go Harris too but I am choosing to be conservative because of the polls.

As it is closer to the election and polls have greatly strengthen in Harris favor I'll predict a 70% chance of her being elected the 47th president of the United states!

[BOSSHOG]

1. Sad we have to consider the EV

They have nothing to do with democracy.

[Butterflylady]

2. Probably ....

Is not in my vocabulary......

[Buckeyeblue]

3. Arizona polling doesn't make sense

Lake is essentially Trump. But she is down by quite a bit. While Trump holds a slim lead. What is driving this split?