Pennsylvania is starting to worry me. Big time.

[Yavin4]

A lot of polling analysis compares a state like PA to what happened in 2016 and 2020 on the presidential level. IMHO, this is not the most robust analysis. A better analysis would be to look at the most recent statewide federal elections results which would be the 2022 midterms.

Recall that in 2022 Biden was near the nadir of his popularity. Inflation was raging out of control and interest rates were soaring. Yet, in PA, both Democrats for senate and the governorship won their elections rather easily without either candidate benefitting from incumbency.

A Trafalgar Oct. 2002 poll showed Shapiro winning by 9.3%. Shapiro won by 15%. That same poll showed Fetterman winning by 2.4%. Fetterman won by almost 5%. Both Shapiro and Fetterman won with 56% and 51% respectively of the vote. In today's politics those are both blowout wins and shows that the state is trending hard towards the Democrats. Their Republican opponents, Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz, were both endorsed by Trump and he campaigned vigorously for both of them. They were ideologically aligned with Trump in every way. Mastriano stormed the capitol on 1/6.

So, how is it that in a key state that went for Biden, Shapiro, and Fetterman over the last two major statewide elections now show a either Trump winning the state or it being tied. Across every single policy measure, there's no real difference between Harris, Biden, Fetterman, and Shapiro. How can the same electorate vote against Doug Mastriano so strongly turn around and now support Trump? You voted against the guy that stormed the capitol in 2022, but you're voting for the guy that incited the people to storm the capitol in 2024? That doesn't make any sense.

There are two possible explanations:

1. The pollsters are boosting Trump's support. It could be that they don't want to be seen as under-counting Trump's support which happened in both 2016 and 2020. It could be that they want to curry favor with Republican campaigns. Or, it could be that this is an election strategy. Show Trump winning and it boosts turnout.

2. The other explanation is that this is pure sexism and misogyny. Obama, Biden, Shapiro, Fetterman, and Harris are all the same flavor of Democrat. They've either served with one another or at least campaigned with one another. There's little policy differences between them. The only difference is that Harris is a woman.

This is what scares me. A state that should be a slam dunk is now a tossup. Please talk me down.


Sources
Trafalgar poll - https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/TRF-PA-General-1013-Full-Report.pdf
2022 PA midterm results - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Pennsylvania_elections
2024 PA polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

[Funtatlaguy]

1. Why I'm not worried

Shapiro
Casey
Fetterman
Biden
Harris
Walz
The Obama’s
The Clintons
All have strengths in different places that will help in PA

[Demsrule86]

2. PA is fine.

[Jarqui]

3. Trafalgar is right biased - nearly as bad as Rasmussen

I think the right wing pollsters have been polling more frequently trying to rein in Harris' surge.

Having said that, take nothing for granted.
Fight like heck. Go for the landslide.

These are sinister folks.
You never know what specific stunt they'll try to pull to try to steal it.
but you can be sure they'll do whatever.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. Trafalgar is way worse than Rasmussen

It’s polls are always outliers, way waaay skewed from the trends of most other polls.

[Jarqui]

23. I think they're both bad

538.com won't even rank Rasmussen anymore.
Trafalgar is at the bottom of their ranked list.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

This is what the right pollsters do trying to keep the contest close.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

4. What polls are you referring to?

The only polls that I have seen from Pennsylvania lately are those partisan republican polls like trafalagar and insider advantage, and those only show Trump up 1 or 2. So if those polls can only muster small Trump leads within the margin of error, I think we are doing well.

Those polls also muck up the aggregate.

[Yavin4]

5. Look at the links in the Sources section.

Let me know if they're not working.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

11. Yeah

Trafalgar group sucks. So much so, he went into hiding after the 2022 elections

[ZonkerHarris]

6. Don't worry, DO SOMETHING! Register voters, engage, GOTV.

[getagrip_already]

7. Here is a new interview with shapiro on chances in pa..

Fwiw..

?feature=shared

[SocialDemocrat61]

8. Better to be worried

than take anything for granted.

[gab13by13]

9. For Congress,

88% of the candidates who spent more money, won.

I didn't see the stats for president.

I live in central Pa. and especially during sporting events there are far more Magat campaign TV ads than Democratic. It isn't even close, it's like 8 to 1 and the Magat ads are brutal. The Magat ads are 100% lie, smear, throw shit against the wall.

Russia and Saudi Arabia must be funneling a lot of money into the RNC PACs.

I guarantee that the #1 state that TSF wants to flip is Pennsylvania and then steal Georgia.

[Zoomie1986]

32. That's central PA. It doesn't rep the entire state.

Ask instead what the media landscape look like in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh? Because those two will be swamping central PA if Democrats get out the vote in sufficient numbers.

Besides, TV ads are not as effective as they once were in the era of social media. The returns on the investment keep diminishing as younger voters age in and older ones lose their share of the electorate. The main TV viewers are older people, and the oldest boomers are already in their mid-70s. Doubtful that any ad would change their views, anyway, because they're not known for their flexibility.

[SWBTATTReg]

10. Don't let this sort of thing, these 'articles' get you down. It's amazing to see articles like this, when you have

evidence of the past being different (you offered it in your post). I seriously think that the powers that be, in the media are grossly distorting the facts on the ground by deliberately misstating the facts or fudging the facts to favor tRUMP. I've noticed that too, you go along and are reading stuff, yada yada yada, and then you see something totally off the way. No way! Etc.

This is one of the great failings of our democracy, where the newspaper/tv/etc. media is literally conspiring to misstate actual facts on the ground. Remember the midterms? The GOP got blown away, they didn't get their big majority that they were expecting (and the media was broadcasting this day in, day out.

Disgusting and I think that we need to have a reckoning of evaluating media, and grading them, for trustworthiness and such. There are probably some things like this out there, but we need to have access to such information literally on a day-to-day basis.

[Yavin4]

13. The midterms should get more weight and attention than polls

Simply because the midterms represent how people voted not what they say to a pollster. Also, in 2022, there was no incumbency advantage for either Democratic candidate. It's not like Shapiro can dole out favors to boost his numbers.

[gab13by13]

14. Sorry, but I don't trust any poll,

If someone can give me a list of the honest polls then I will reconsider, but when Gallup, the king of polls, picked Romney over Obama by using faulty data in its formula, why should I trust any poll?

Add to that, TSF has been caught paying a poll for favorable results, does anyone believe he has stopped doing that?

The only polls I believe are exit polls.

[SWBTATTReg]

16. Smart.

[Wiz Imp]

12. I Live in PA and am not the least bit worried

And 538 poll average currently shows a Harris lead anyway.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

[kansasobama]

15. I have to agree with Yavin

PA is a concern. It is almost like Harris wave missed PA. I think it will need everyone, Biden, Shapiro, Obamas and Harris to help increase margins in Philly, Pittsburgh, and Harrisburg. Other parts are more MAGA than ever before.

I am waiting for evidence Obamas are going to work overtime in Philly. For all the good speech, Michelle Obama generally has not come out to bat during campaigns. From her speech, we know she can move people. She somehow has not come out in campaigns. It has to be different this year.

Biden, I am sure, will do his best to help Harris. Hindsight is 20-20, but Shapiro might have been the better pick although Waltz is more endearing. He has been very good except in PA.

It is not dire but looks like we will have several bouts of heart attacks before PA falls to us.

[Bev54]

19. Biden and Harris are there today

[Sogo]

26. On what basis do you say that "He (Walz) has been very good except in PA."

That sounds like pure conjecture....

[kansasobama]

45. You may not be incorrect

I am basing on polls so far. Waltz definitely has done a job in Wisconsin. More than what we all expected. Same with Michigan.

[obamanut2012]

61. I knew you would be concerned!

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Limited recent polling exists for PA

And most of the polling has been done by republican biased pollsters.

Wait a couple of weeks, and get back to us about your anxiety level.

[Aepps22]

20. They're Working

I’m very confident that Harris and team are working very hard in that state and are focusing on super charging the ground game to get our voters to the booth. We are at the stage where GOTV is so important and I’m confident that the ground game that was hampered due to the pandemic will pay dividends in PA

[Wanderlust988]

21. Trafalgar is a known Republican outfit. The Trafalgar guy used to go on Hannity a lot

Why use that poll? That poll shouldn't even be allowed on DU.

[Goonch]

22. What me worry?

[Hawaii Hiker]

24. Traflagar was the outfit that had Dixon winning Michigan governor race in 2022

When she lost by about 13%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/Michigan.html#!

And they also had Masters ahead in AZ senate race.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2022/arizona/masters-vs-kelly

They are joke pollsters.

[Think. Again.]

25. There's a third possible explanation...

...for-profit polls are designed to elicit an emotional reaction from readers (it has to do with selling ad space) and you read them.

[rso]

27. RSO

The polling aggregates have Harris ahead in PA.

[JohnSJ]

28. We need a large turnout.

[VMA131Marine]

29. Ignoring the biased Trafalgar poll

Harris is up 1.6% in the average (48.3 to 46.7) of the 3 most recent polls published on 8/29 and 8/30. The next most recent poll was 8/19 so I didn’t include that in the average. That would translate to a winning margin of nearly 112,000 votes and better than President Biden did in 2020 (1.17% winning margin) assuming similar turnout.

[lees1975]

30. You've more or less talked yourself down with your opening paragraphs.

Pennsylvania has been trending Democratic. It elected a Democratic governor following a two-term Democrat for the first time in four decades. All state officials are Democrats. It's legislature, which less than a decade ago had a super majority of Republicans (because of gerrymandering) is now split with the House being majority Democrat and its congressional delegation has moved from five to nine Democrats.

Your hypothesis #1 is absolutely on target. The pollsters did get burned in the mid-terms, not just in Pennsylvania, but everywhere. The stumbling continued into the off-year election cycle where they missed again, most notably in Virginia. They claim primaries are more difficult to predict, but they've missed, especially on the GOP side.

I think they are not taking into consideration factors that help them gauge voter enthusiasm and predict the turnout. They've missed out partly because the post-Dobbs effect has changed their standard predictions, and defied conventional wisdom, like "the party in power always loses big in the midterms." Unless, of course, there are 15% more voters on one side than expected or anticipated.

Trafalgar and SoCal/Red Eagle are both Republican funded polls. Trafalgar still had Trump in the lead on election day in 2020, when he lost, and I think they were outside the margin of error. The latter poll SoCal, has conducted only a small number of polls, and is exclusively used by Red Eagle Politics, a far right wing extremist partisan YouTube channel. All of the other polls, including Morning Consult, have Harris up by anywhere from 4 to 8 points, which is consistent with where Pennsylvanians have voted over the last four election cycles.

https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1f2r35p/should_a_polling_company_that_has_been_used/?rdt=63773

I lived in Western Pennsylvania for 8 years, during two Presidential elections, and learned that the traditionally heavy Democratic turnout is pretty reliable. What Democrats need to win in PA is to up their turnout, one or two percent, in the Red counties. For example, in 2020, Biden got exactly what he needed out of the Philadelphia area, Allentown-Bethlehem, Lucerne and Lackawanna, Dauphin, Centre, Erie and Allegheny counties, but he got slightly more than 2% higher in counties like Butler, where I lived. Across the state, he increased the Democratic vote in red counties and produced an additional 2% Democratic turnout, which took the pressure off the blue counties and yielded an almost 90,000 vote margin.

Looks like that's in the Harris-Walz strategy this time. They have a huge ground game in PA. Trump does not.

[Yavin4]

33. Thanks for your analysis.

I feel better.

[lindysalsagal]

31. In 2020 Bucks County, one of the swingiest, went for Biden, but reds down-ticket.

Bucks knew 4 years ago they didn't want another term with tscf. There's no reason with Dobbs and Harris that he'll get more votes. Casey is doing well, too.

With the huge new registrations of dems, women, and especially black voters, seen in many other swing states, Harris has it.

Yes, there are lots of little red counties that will go red, and the map will appear red, there aren't many votes in all that red rural space.

8 out of the 10 largest counties are solid Harris. She's got it.

[WarGamer]

34. weird scenario...

Trump loses AZ, GA and AZ... but wins PA and MI

269-269

[Cosmocat]

39. I just can't see that happening

If she can't get PA she isn't getting the other ones, imo.

[DFW]

53. I think Harris will win PA and MI

And although I also see Trump losing AZ, I don’t think he’ll lose it twice.

[Blasphemer]

35. I am worried about EVERY state

This country's collective brain has been hijacked. I live in North Carolina and all I can do is work to GOTV. I will say that I am less worried about misogyny than I was in 2016. SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade has created a counterbalance to sexism.

[Stargleamer]

36. I'm worried big-time about Pennsylvania, too BUT

I have a little bit of hope that Judge Merchan can impose a significant enough a sentence on the POS (at least home confinement, if not Rikers) that can favorably affect the outcome in Pennsylvania. Also, I think maybe the upcoming debate will go well and maybe help put Harris over the top

[H2O Man]

37. Recommended.

I take nothing for granted at this time. I think that we will win PA. I think we can win by a landslide across the country. But I know that requires that we take nothing for granted in any state.

I think it involves sexism, but there is more. Although we are reaching the reality that Yoko Ono predicted circa 1971 -- that the population would eventually become the shades of coffee -- there is a specific population sub-group that is uncomfortable with non-white human beings, especially those of mixed racial or ethnic origin. They are white men. I know this, because they are comfortable expressing their anxieties and fears to me. (Note: I try not to laugh, as I assure them it will be okay and that deep down, they have the potential ability to deal with life.)

[Cosmocat]

38. These candidates are in no way similar

Fetterman ran as a full on unabashed progressive populist.

Biden was viewed as a veteran moderate dem.

Shapiro is a dynamic and pragmatic politician.

They all are from ... Pennsylvania.

Kamala is from ... California and is very new to the state.

And Trump has a strong appeal here. The agism attacks on Joe pulled a good bit of the angry old guy vote that broke to Joe before to Trump.

She's in better shape now than Joe was, but right now Trump's 46-47% ceiling is holding here more than other places.

I am hopeful, as you note the last few cycles PA has broke more D than poling showed. I think Kamala will get a stronger Phily surge than Joe would have gotten and will bring in decent increases in black and Hispanic women voters that might have sat it out.

Everyone you mentioned will be working it, Fetterman, Shapiro, Casey ... Joe is in Pittsburgh now.

It's close for sure, but as I've posted a few times, if she loses PA, she isn't getting those southern states, either. I don't think that will be the case.

[Yavin4]

40. Doug Mastriano is also from Pennsylvania, and he's as close to Trump that you can get.

Yet, the voters soundly rejected him. I don't understand how they could reject Doug Mastriano, but embrace Trump. That's what I'm not getting.

[LymphocyteLover]

41. I really don't understand how Trump could do better this time in PA, then in 2020

I can't see him getting many new voters. The big thing is how many Dems and independents Kamala will bring out, what % of voters, and we all have to hope she does well

[Cosmocat]

43. Yeah

Again, I think he got a good chunk of Joe voters here who went w Joe the first time because they were tired of Trumps bullshit, but the right did such a good job negging Joe the last four years they flipped back.

I do agree that I think Kamala can bring in voters who might have sat it out, black and Hispanic women in particular, and also the youth vote. PA has a lot of universities.

[LymphocyteLover]

64. yes, but still, he must have lost voters with his horrible scandals and crimes in the past 4 years

[Cosmocat]

42. Mastriono out and out indicated

That if he was governor, he would not accept any Ds election if they won. He was as right wing as you can get.

There are enough "normal" Rs in this state that won't support people like that.

This is why I get frustrated w the PA is Alabama between Pittsburgh and Philly trope. It just isn't like that.

Rs who win statewide tend to be like Toomey or Ridge, traditional chamber
of commerce types. We did have
Santorum for two terms, but he
pushed it too far and they flaked on
him and Casey crushed him.

Trump is just different. He isn't a politician and doesn't give a shit about actual policy. I guess the best way of saying it is, PA still has a vestige of the high times for unions, and Trump has a Jimmy Hoffa vibe. Comes off as a tough guy who is his own man.

[Yavin4]

44. Trump is one of one.

This is indeed a personality cult, not a political party.

[kansasobama]

47. It is sexism and cult behavior

Trump voters are cult voters. That is why polls are on an edge. One of polls, WICK, is from Mark Halperin. He is a Trump apologist cleverly disguised as a non-partisan. Watch his podcast 2way. It always feels like he is trying to find a subject line that says - How can Trump overcome this or that". Someone said we have more GOP leaning polls. That is true mostly.

[Cosmocat]

54. Halperin is a smarmy pos

After his "troubles" he has taken the easy and proven way to try to stay in the game, appeal to the right wingers.

[Cosmocat]

55. Halperin is a smug, marmy $hitstain

After his "troubles" he has taken the easy and proven way to try to stay in the game, appeal to the right wingers.

[kansasobama]

59. You are correct

I am ashamed of myself to forget that. However, it was easy to see he was very quickly.

[Polybius]

48. We can win without PA technically

Just hold almost everything else that we won in 2020.

[Yavin4]

49. If she loses PA, then she needs NC and GA

And those are red states.

[Polybius]

50. NC was lost in 2020 too

Let's say she wins every state that Biden won in 2020, except PA and its 19 EV's. She wins the Presidency.

[Polybius]

52. Here's a replica of the 2020 map, but with Trump winning PA instead

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTcyNTMyNTIwNDI0NDQwLUuSLFm2bUGSbUGSbFuWbVuSZcm2LA

[Dulcinea]

56. GA is purple.

We have our share of red rural counties, but metro Atlanta has more than half the population, & Dolt 45 isn't popular here. No one wins Georgia without metro Atlanta.

[kansasobama]

58. We don't want that

We want PA.

[Polybius]

60. Same here

However, if we lose PA but still win the presidency, the liquor is still coming out.

[jmowreader]

51. It's easy for PA to poll hard right if you want it to

Last edited Mon Sep 2, 2024, 10:39 PM - Edit history (1)

https://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/sdc/pasdc_files/mapsofthemonth/motm_0804.pdf

This is a map of Pennsylvania counties by voter registration, prepared by the Pennsylvania Data Center at Penn State University. This is dated 2004 but the general voter balance should be usable in 2024.

If you overlay this with a map that shows the locations of cities, you'll notice something pretty typical: the cities vote Democratic, the rural areas Republican. If you want to file a poll that says Trump is just gonna clean up in PA, simply stay out of the urban areas.

Barring some massive October surprise I don't think they're going to be able to do, PA should be safely in Harris' column at the end of the voting. The major thing that killed us in 2016 was Comey claiming he was going to reopen the email investigation.

[rso]

57. RSO

Comey, not Barr.

[Jack Valentino]

62. I believe pollsters have been "over-compensating" for the "hidden Trump vote" effect...

and that this year, as for the past two years, there is a "hidden PRO-CHOICE" vote,
which they are not taking into account.

Democrats have over-performed the polling predictions in almost every election since the Dobbs decision,
sometimes by as much as 8 percentage points--- but usually be three or four percent.

I think VP Harris can win in Pennsylvania, although it will probably be close...

However, our ticket has multiple paths to victory.

We could win this WITHOUT Pennsylvania,
by winning either Georgia or North Carolina,
along with either Nevada or Arizona,

(while carrying Michigan and Wisconsin).


Even if Harris lost in Penn AND Wisconsin,
she could win the election by carrying Georgia and North Carolina (that would end it),

or by carrying Either Georgia or North Carolina,
along with Arizona and Nevada.

In any case, we are going to do our best in Pennsylvania,
and without it, Trump has a much more difficult path to victory... perhaps impossible.

[standingtall]

63. Trafalgar group is a partisan republican polling outfit

and is plainly marked as such on 538. Which would explain why it was so far off in the Shapiro and Fetterman elections.

Insideradvantage is not currently mark as a partisan polling outfit, but it is conducted by the co- founder of Trafalgar group.

2 Way is conducted by Mark Halperin another right wing hack. The fact they can only manage to give Trump a 1 point lead or a tie considering their right wing bias. I think you could probably add 3 to 5 points for Harris. I'm not saying it's impossible to lose Pennsylvania, but I think it will come through for us on election day.

[Emile]

65. Bought and paid for polls to make Trump look good.

[Happy Hoosier]

66. At this point, worrying does no good.

We have our (excellent) candidates, and they have proven to have terrific instincts.

I'm sure they see the data and are devising a strategy that will give us our best shot.

We can't be guaranteed a win, but I think one fo the strongest assets of this campaign is the "joyful warrior" aspect. Engage with the positive feeling, slap Weirdo and Beardo around every chance we get, and exude confidence and energy. Let the rest take care of itself.

[zanana1]

67. I've been worrying for about two years.

[helpisontheway]

68. I love Walz on the ticket but I wonder if choosing Shapiro would have locked this state down. Nt

[Yavin4]

69. I really don't think that the VP matters all that much.

Esp. in this case.