Harris Leads Nationally in the Polling Averages

[applegrove]

Harris Leads Nationally in the Polling Averages

September 3, 2024 at 6:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 0 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/09/03/harris-leads-nationally-in-the-polling-averages/

"SNIP.............

The polling averages all show Kamala Harris with a lead:

RealClearPolitics: Harris +1.8 points
538: Harris +3.2 points
Nate Silver: Harris +3.5 points
The Economist: Harris +3.5 points

........SNIP"

[Meadowoak]

1. +3.5 won't clear the electoral college threshold.

[applegrove]

2. Democratic support is down in places like California ( though

still a Democratic stronghold). So California numbers are less a part of the pro-democratic national polls as they have been in previous elections. That mean more support for Democrats is coming from elsewhere than California. If it is battleground states where that increased support is then we are doing great. If it is Florida, then that is not so great.

[Meadowoak]

3. If it is Florida, then that is not so great. I'm not sure I understand.

[applegrove]

4. Assuming we don't win in Florida but numbers of Democratic

voters has risen there, then it is not so great. We want those Democratic supporters in the national polls Kamala is winning to be in the states Democrats can win, in the battlegrounds whenever possible. If say it is a matter of 1% that is no longer California Democratic votes would you want that spread out in Florida and like states we cannot win? Or would you like that to go to Pennsylvania.

[Meadowoak]

6. Call me crazy, but I think we could win Florida.

I could be wrong, I know that a lot of seniors are worried about their social security and Medicare.

[applegrove]

7. Oh I would love that.

[arlyellowdog]

5. It's all just numbers but RCP gives Harris 270

And had Trump over the 270 threshold before

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Ignore RCP

They aren’t a serious polling aggregator. Totally right wing and allow unscientific right wing polls in.

Bit if even they have her leading. That’s a good thing.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. She is ahead.

The thought with Trumpster sis that he’s going to beat the polling again like he did in 2020. I don’t think that’s the case anymore. Since Roe, Dems have been beating the polling. Trump’s only shot right now is if the polling is off again.