New CNN polls

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html

[everyonematters]

1. Close, but I would rather be Harris than Trump.

[madaboutharry]

2. The fact that this race, according to polling, is even close

causes me to lose faith in the decency of the American people.

Harris would be 20 points ahead if we didn't live in a country with tens of millions of brainwashed zombies

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

3. Yep

Trump is really not the main problem, the main problem his voters. And even if he loses, they will still be here.

[kansasobama]

13. Our country is really F-ed

Where are the normal GOP?

[TxGuitar]

15. There are none

If there ever really were any

[tavernier]

18. The main problem is Fox News.

Sorry, I believe that whole heartedly.

[LakeArenal]

30. I say ALL MEDIA.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

39. And they will pay if he gets elected. Unfortunately, we will too.

The only solace I would have is that the majority of these voters (the racists, the ignorant, women haters) will be screwed if Trump were to get in. They deserve it. Me, I’m 69 and have seen somewhat normal politics (except for George W. Bush and Trump). I don’t count Nixon and Watergate because most of the the Republicans at least had some amount of shame about it and the main sentiment was pretty negative towards Nixon. Most of the people who hated Nixon and would not have voted for him were not old enough to vote against him. That was the Hippie era.

[yardwork]

4. People who watch nothing but Fox News and TV ads are misinformed.

The ads in North Carolina right now are outrageous lies about Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. Watching those ads, one would think the country was a smoldering, crime-ridden hell hole.

[rzemanfl]

6. Yes, the cities burn down every night but return in the morning.

[essaynnc]

9. Winston Salem here.....

Our magaloon congress critter, Virginia Foxx, is running on ads that say that she and the Republican party are running to save Medicaid and social security.

Really?????? From the party that promises to burn it all down for their 2025 billionaire overlords !

[helpisontheway]

37. Does she have any ads playing there? Nt

[yardwork]

38. Yes, attacks on Trump. They're fairly good, but truthful.

Truthful ads are never as interesting as the Republicans' blatant lies and innuendo.

[JohnSJ]

5. I no longer recognize our country. It is pretty clear to me that our country is made up of a significant number of

racist, sexist, and bigots.

The fact that a hell of a lot of Americans have no problem with someone who tried to overthrow our government is probably the most alarming.

If trump wins the WH again, I am through with this country. Of course if that happens the country is through with Democracy.

[kansasobama]

12. That is the truth

This is an ongoing problem till MAGAs are rooted out. Unfortunately, media propels dictatorship with this close election narrative.

[Diamond_Dog]

16. I agree 100% John SJ

I don’t understand how this election isn’t a runaway for Harris.

[SheltieLover]

27. Women with zero self-respect & redneck men

[CrispyQ]

29. And a whole bunch of people who don't want to admit they were conned.

It's a common trait I see on that side, a reluctance to admit when they were wrong. Admitting you were conned is even harder.

[SheltieLover]

32. Oh, no doubt!

Hopefully they will stay their slovenly asses home or get really angry & secretly vote Blue all the way down the ticket.

Quite an egomaniacal bunch they are...

[LAS14]

24. I totally agree. What am I doing in a country where 1/2 the population thinks he's OK??????? nt

[SoFlaBro]

41. Maybe others knew too but black people have known how fucked up this country is for a long fucking time.

[JT45242]

7. Bullshit horserace spin...Harris up by 5 points (over MOE) in all but one state

Her lead is larger than the margin of error ...they are trying to click bait and make a horse race to drive ratings for the next two months.

[kansasobama]

11. Exactly

Last edited Wed Sep 4, 2024, 11:03 AM - Edit history (1)

They release whatever suits. Realpolitics also uses whatever is weaker for Harris, generally RV not LV. Time for RV is gone. What is PA LV as per CNN?

[Self Esteem]

14. Her lead is NOT larger than the MOE in any of these polls.

If the MOE is +/- 4.9%, as these polls are, 5 points is not outside the MOE. In fact, for Harris to lead outside the MOE, her lead would need to be nearly 10 points. It's half that.

Her lead is within the MOE.

You can read more about MOE here:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

[Polybius]

35. In the polls they showed she's up by 6 in WI and 5 in MI

That's not up by 5 "in all but one state." She's up by 1 in GA, one in NV tied in PA, and down by 5 in AZ.

[ColinC]

8. Good news in Michigan where polls have shown her losing

[lees1975]

23. I've seen polls that had her up by 9 in Michigan, and down by 4 the same week.

How do you pick the one that's got it right?

[ColinC]

26. Please share with me the one with her up 9

I need the morale boost 😂

[kansasobama]

10. CNN polls are not great

They are poor quality. However, I am really pissed at AZ voters and the Gallegos campaign. He is capable of bringing Harris polls up but he won't have anything to do with helping Harris with reverse cotails.

[lees1975]

25. Bullshit

[Polybius]

36. AZ is a light Red state

Lots of Republicans voted for a Democrat for Governor in 2022, and they will again vote for a Democrat in this year's Senate race. At some point, those Republicans may feel the need to vote Republican again. Let's hope it's not for President.

[Deminpenn]

17. Suspect like in 2016 with Trump,

pollster LV models are missing voters who fall outside their LV criteria such as in these polls of "history" and "intention".

In 2016, these were erratic and new voters who came out to vote for Trump. This year imo, it's the opposite with traditionally erratic and newly registered younger voters being screened out by LV models.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Proceed with caution in interpreting any meaning from this poll

The MOE for each state’s results ranged from +/-4.4-4.9%

That renders results for every state a statistical tie.

The MOE for subgroups (race, gender, age) would be even larger.

Furthermore, the report claims that 15% of likely voters in each state are not firm in their choice of candidate, but no info in how those 15% break for which candidate is given. I am skeptical that 15% of likely voters in each swing state could flip from one candidate to the other, especially voters for Harris.

Full data and methodology link:

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25088820/cnn-polls-across-six-battlegrounds-find-georgia-and-pennsylvania-are-key-toss-ups.pdf

[lindysalsagal]

20. No polls are representing the post-Dobbs blue wave.

[Chasing Dreams]

21. Yup, they are calibrated to 2020, and

ignore Dobbs, gen Z’s incredible excitement and interest, our ground game, and more.

[lees1975]

22. Notice the sample sizes in these polls.

Too small. And they are contradictory to the whole batch of recent, A rated polls that came out earlier in the week. The polls are all over the place. So someone must be very wrong.

Gathering from other factors, enthusiasm, voter registration, recent actual ballot history, primaries and some of the senate races (Gallego, for example in Arizona leads by anywhere from 6 to 9, and Casey in Pennsylvania, up by 7 to 9) I'd say Harris is in excellent shape.

[underpants]

28. Yes the are small samples

Interviews conducted August 23-29, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 682 voters in Arizona, 617 in Georgia, 708 in Michigan, 626 in Nevada, 789 in Pennsylvania, and 976 in Wisconsin. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

[Self Esteem]

34. The sample size isn't small at all.

Those are reasonable sample sizes for state polling.

[LakeArenal]

31. Hence the problem trump and Vance are having with those working women.

We can’t be controlled.

[rogerballard]

33. Younger voters

Might decide this election, young male and female voters turnout en masse.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

40. I hate to say this, but SSRS is a solidly Dem-leaning poll.

SSRS/CNN:
Mean adj Bias: D +2.3,
Bias D +4.4,
House Effect: D +2.3
Rated C+
#351 out of 516 polls.

That is why you really have to average polls. The last few polls before that had either a big Republican bias (Trafalger) or a semi-Republican bias (Wick).

There’s only a few polls that you can rely a little bit on: New York Times/Siena, ABC News/The Washington Post, SurveyUSA, Marquette University Law School, AtlasIntel, Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, Marist College, Cygnal, Landmark, Emerson College, University of North Florida. Although this is based on numbers from past polls, and they could have gone to hell in a handbasket this election.