I beleive Democrats will overperform the polls this year

[Pototan]

There is conventional wisdom among many political pundits and angst among a lot of Democrats that Trump always overperforms his polls in the final election. This conclusion comes from the final results in 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, Hillary came off a bruising and lengthy primary contest with Bernie Sanders. There were some hard feelings that reduced enthusiasm and the ground game. But Hillary still could have won, if not for James Comey's late letter reopening the email case against Ms. Clinton. This release coincided with early voting in most states, and his retraction later was too little, too late. The letter did not drive voters to Trump, but many traditional Democrats voted third party.

In 2020, the voter divide was huge. Democrats were cautious about Covid. That's why absentee voting was through the roof on the Democrats side. But that caution reduced the effect of a superior ground game. Going to a person's door, driving them to early voting or on election day, was hampered. On the other hand, the Trump voters were fearless (some would say reckless). They were told by their hero that the whole thing was a hoax. They voted on election day. They didn't have or need a ground game. If not for Covid, I believe the polls would have been correct and Biden would have won by 6 or 7 points, resulting in an electoral college landslide and safe margins in the swing states.

Now, to 2024. We have a candidate with little to no baggage. Unlike Hillary, Kamala has not been unfairly maligned for 25 years. There is no manufactured scandal and there was no bruising primary. There is no fear of meeting people in person. There is an abundance of resources, including money, infrastructure and volunteers. And the enthusiasm is palpable. Trump. on the other hand, has already underperformed in the primaries. 20% of Republicans and Independents who participated in the Republican primaries voted for a candidate who dropped out, rather than for Trump. His crowds are smaller. The rallies fewer. And the Trump schtick is getting rather boring. The Republican party, at the state level, is hollowed out. His resources have been redirected to his legal expenses and there is little to no ground game.

Democrats have to work our asses off in the 7 swing states that really matter. But I believe we have the troops, the resources and the enthusiasm to overperform the polls by 2 or 3 points Nationally and in each swing state.

[gab13by13]

1. What are the statistics? Don't they usually overperform?

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Dems have been overperforming for a couple cycles including special elections

But Trump overperformed by a lot in 2020.

[Joinfortmill]

16. Check and get back to us.

[rzemanfl]

2. The female vote and the votes of men who care about them

is going to turn some red states blue.

[PatrickforB]

13. Yeah, I have a good friend that thinks both FL and GA will be going blue.

NC too. And maybe SC.

Joy and light will attract people who are weary of Trump's negativity and lies. People really WANT to turn the page on the nightmare that has been Trump.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. South Carolina would be extremely tough.

In theory, it’s winnable because about 38% of the state’s voters are minority, mostly black. But turnout among those groups tends to be low in that state.

[moonscape]

21. No way on SC.

[bushalert]

3. IMO this election will be won....

on the issue of abortion rights. The repugs awakened a sleeping giant with the overturning of Roe. Americans now see how easily their rights can be taken away. It’s all about freedom this election cycle.

[2naSalit]

5. That and...

J6. For many the coup attempt was the last straw so I am anticipating a major blue wave/tsunami.

I don't put any cred behind polls since they have now been historically wrong for many election cycles now. The media is playing us and we need to keep that as a sidebar that starts at the top of the page.

Know the truth, keep your head down, eyes on the prize all the way to next February, at least.

All the opposition to democracy will be using their entire arsenal to defeat us, if it smells fishy or weird, investigate until the truth is found.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

14. Which is why Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are making inroads with even the most skeptical of voters..

Because FREEDOM is on the ballot this year and the sleeping giant has been awoken.

[mopinko]

6. w reproductive rights on the ballot, i think we win by a lot.

i also think that ppl r a lot more focused on downticket races. democracy is on the ballot, and state level gqp has passed an AVALANCHE of voter suppression and abortion laws.
hell, ppl r looking at school board races, and stomping hos for hitler in several states.
thinking ppl r worried on many levels.
since 2017 we’ve outperformed the polls in many, many places. and abortion referendums have been 60-40. the polls dont bother me.

i think we’ll have an amazing gotv machine, but i think ppl will get themselves to the polls.
it’s a movement now.

[RAB910]

7. Polls are based on historic voting trends

I think 2024 Harris has more enthusiasm than 2020 Biden.

I think the 2024 Convicted Felon has lost some of the support he had in 2020

So, I see voting patterns that will not match the ones the pollsters use. I think there will be more Democratic voters and less MAGA voters than the percentages the pollsters are using for their samples.

[PCIntern]

8. Agreed AND...

the professionals, including those in shithead’s campaign, know exactly what is going on and aren’t involved in the fraudulent horse race mentality.

It is obvious that there has been a seismic shift…that those who were initially fooled into thinking that this idiot had all the answers and was an outsider could manage the federal government realize, not that they were wrong (because no one in America ever makes a mistake) but that they’d be better served by someone else.

He’s gonna lose bigtime…it’ll be the equivalent of tfe “inevitable” Red Wave a couple years ago -and the media panels will be sitting around cluck-clucking at how surprising this is. Meanwhile, the accountants will be adding up all the excess ad revenue they accumulated due to the constant watching by the millions of this neck and neck race.

and yes: “We have to work our asses off and GOTV and not be overconfident.” Yes. I know. And I have to remember to VOTE! And make sure all my family and friends do as well!!!!!!

[Yavin4]

9. Look at the midterms

In 2014, Republicans did extremely well. MI, PA, and WI all had Republican governors. The 2016 electorate was very hostile towards Democrats. It's not that shocking that Hillary lost.

In 2022, the reverse is true. MI, PA, and WI all now have Democratic governors. The 2024 electorate is a lot more favorable towards Democrats.

[dslyahoo]

10. Hope. Spread the word! Vote!! 💙💙💙💙💙

💙💙💙💙💙💙💙

[Oopsie Daisy]

11. Well... "hard feelings that reduced enthusiasm" is a bit of an understatement in my opinion.

That's the sanitized version and it omits the reality.

[et tu]

12. i believe we will win bigly!

for roevember forecast- a mighty bigly blue tsunami!
not goin' back!!!

[Joinfortmill]

15. Excellent post. Agree100%. Let's finally Dump Trump.

[Wounded Bear]

18. Your keyboard to god's monitor...but GOTV!

[OLDMDDEM]

19. I have been thinking that since the convention.

[lees1975]

20. That 20% of Republican primary voters who voted for someone else after Haley was the last to drop out

is huge. Some of the networks amazingly have video footage of interviews with people in this group who say they are not voting Trump under any circumstance. You can find a host of them on You Tube. And the pollsters really blew it in predicting the primaries, early on especially.

I predict we will have exactly the same result this time that we did during the mid-terms. As we get within a week of the election, we will see the polls all start to reflect what the data they are collecting is actually telling them, instead of all of the stuff they now cherry pick to get clicks, hits and viewers. I think we see Harris getting over the 300 mark with electoral votes, like Biden did.

And we will have commentators for all three aggregates issue their usual response as to why they were all over the place for months, and suddenly calmed down and got better numbers, so they can claim the got it right "Within the margin of error," no matter how far off they were all election season.

[TuskMoar]

22. Holding Out Hope, Albeit Slim, for TX

The one thing that keeps from going all in on TX is their voter suppression efforts.

[Initech]

23. James Comey fucked this country over in multiple ways.

All to satisfy a bullshit Fox News conspiracy about Hillary's e-mails. We can't let them gaslight us this time, there's too much at stake. Fuck Trump, Fox News, the Heritage Foundation, and Project 2025!

[liberalla]

24. I absolutely agree with you... I think there's a quiet rage building in Democrats

and women in particular (not just Dems) that the media and pollsters aren't seeing, or are ignoring.

In addition to the anger, we're also are experiencing excitement and hope with our new 2024 presidential ticket. Many people will be surprised at the results (pleasantly)...

Still got to work like crazy down to the finish line - take nothing for granted!