Prof Allan Lichtman's 2024 Presidential Prediction is in...

[PunkinPi]

Last edited Thu Sep 5, 2024, 06:19 AM - Edit history (1)

Newer tweet:

My 2024 Presidential Prediction @nytopinion @nayeema: https://nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html

Link to tweet

Original tweet (that disappeared)

My 2024 presidential prediction:

Link to tweet

Link to NYT - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

...And the predicted winners are Harris/Walz!! But of course, we must VOTE!

[Tetrachloride]

1. tweet not found

[Buns_of_Fire]

2. My guess is that Eloon's "free speech absolutism" applies

only to well-placed ubermensch elites - like him.

[PunkinPi]

3. Weird. The direct link to the NYT is also in the OP. nt

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Perhaps that's the joke? (nt)

[PunkinPi]

5. The original tweet was deleted/disappeared. I've edited the OP to reflect the new tweet. nt

[hlthe2b]

6. No paywall on the NYT link & video is only 7 minutes (and sort of cute)... Watch it.

[Buns_of_Fire]

8. ...but use the link in the tweet. I hit the paywall

when I used the one at the end of the OP.

EIther way, I got the bottom line and I approve.

[peppertree]

7. My one disagreement, is with his 'incumbent charisma - false' call

There's no question Ms. Harris turns that key.

Not least because she's an inspirational woman to millions (and not just to women!), who have been hoping to see a Madam President sometime in their lifetimes - and who now have an even better chance than in 2016 of seeing that happen.

[PunkinPi]

9. I agree with you wholeheartedly on that one. nt

[peppertree]

10. Thank you

We're blessed to have had her at the right place, at the right time.

The Biden-Harris relay handoff will no doubt go down as one the great moves of U.S. - and world - political history.

[Smooth155]

12. Totally disagree

She's only been in the race a month the jury is still out whether she is a charismatic person or not.

[Sugarcoated]

21. She is obviously charismatic

We all have eyes

[unblock]

13. The bar is very high for that one, but you may be right.

She's got charisma, no doubt; but I don't feel she naturally oozes the fdr/jfk-level charisma that's required to turn that key.

That said, the evidence is there. She's pulling in massive crowds and driving enthusiasm way up.

A good chunk of her appeal is circumstantial -- she's benefited from the relief of us having a strong replacement for Biden after he was struggling in the polls, and merely being seen as a normal candidate who can beat the monster the republicans are running is helping her immensely.

But was it any different for fdr? He certainly benefited from simply being someone who cared for ordinary people and wanted to try to help, after republicans gave us the great contraction and government indifference to its consequences.

I think being able to boost turnout is one of the "key" measures of the charisma key. Maybe lichtman will revisit this key after more evidence is in.

[LymphocyteLover]

14. He said false? She's amazingly charismatic.

[hlthe2b]

16. It isn't that she is not charismatic--the key requires a "once in a generation" charismatic figure

Arguably she may be. I think Obama was. But, it is early to make that pronouncement

[LymphocyteLover]

17. I'd say she is, but I'm probably a bit biased.

[ecstatic]

19. I think it would be difficult for any woman to get that key due

to ingrained sexism or maybe the word, as used in popular culture, just doesn't work for us.

That said, I think Harris reaches peak charisma when she's actively fighting for the people. I still remember the way she was fighting for us during the Kavanaugh hearings. She was incredible and amazing and that's why she was my first donation of the 2020 season.

She's not going to ooze charisma and mesmerize audiences at a quiet sit down interview like Obama would, but she will accomplish the female equivalent of charisma, which is to inspire viewers and elicit devotion and loyalty. If that makes sense. lol.

[hlthe2b]

20. True enough. If she is elected and runs again for reelection in 4 years, then I would spit nails if she didn't

earn that key--assuming Alan Lichtman was still with us (he is 77 yo now, after all, but seemingly in good health).

[ColinC]

11. What a wonderful video!

Lichtman: “That is my prediction but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote!”

[ecstatic]

15. Good. I was wondering if he was playing games

I tuned into a few of their live sessions and it seemed like he was adding one caveat after another so that he couldn't be pinned down.

[ClimateHawk]

18. He was waiting to see what would happen

He wanted to see if there would be any social unrest during the DNC and the start of the new school year. Some of the keys have been more fluid in recent years which is why he has waited longer to make a prediction.