Montana polls

[Polybius]

Montana: Trump vs. Harris: Trump 56, Harris 41
Montana Senate - Sheehy vs. Tester: Sheehy 51, Tester 45

MONTANA VOTER SURVEY

While the Presidential race was not surprising, the Senate race is. Outlier? Or is Tester in trouble?

[WarGamer]

1. Tester has led a charmed electoral life... that may end.

Red State...

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. If the IDIOTS that vote for any con want to destroy the country and the planet, I suppose

we cant stop them, in the end.

[bearsfootball516]

3. He's probably in real trouble.

He survived by 4 percent in a blue wave year in 2018. Now in a presidential year, he's a clear underdog.

[Polybius]

4. Then we need to pick up a Republican-held seat, since we are losing WV

Otherwise, we lose the Senate.

[Ace Rothstein]

16. The Senate is going to be a problem in the next decade.

We can maybe flip the NC seats in the future but I don't see any other red state giving us Dem Senators.

[yourout]

29. I'm optimistic that here in Wisconsin the next time Johnson seat comes up again...

We can win that.

[Jack Valentino]

31. Yeah.... should have won it last time,

but the national party in its wisdom decided that it was lost... prematurely....

[ColinC]

5. I think Tester will probably win because of abortion

But it might be close. I haven’t really looked at Trumps approval in Montana though -I imagine that could be a general motivator for turnout.

[Self Esteem]

7. Definitely don't think he'll probably win.

He could win still but he's in a far worse place polling-wise than he was six years ago.

The problem isn't that he just trails, it's that he has only led in one poll since July.

[ColinC]

11. Pollling is a useful barometer for getting a snapshot on the direction of the race

But it ignores nearly all the fundamentals surrounding an election that may or may not drive the results into an expected outcome.

[Self Esteem]

14. No. But we don't know the fundamentals in Montana.

You say Roe will pull him over the line. Okay. Maybe. But it's also a presidential election in a very Trump-centric state. Four years ago, in a high-turnout presidential election where Joe Biden won nationally, all the polls actually showed Steve
Bullock, who was a very popular governor at the time, in a neck-and-neck race. But Steve Daines won reelection by TEN POINTS.

According to this poll, Trump is winning Montana very similarly to what he won the state in 2020.

In 2020, he ran ahead of Daines by seven-points. Right now, he's running ahead of Tester according to this poll by nine-points.

And remember, Bullock was a very popular governor. In 2016, the year Trump took the presidency, Bullock won statewide 50-46 - an election where Trump won 56-35 in Montana.

So, it's not as if he was some unknown - or unsuccessful state politician. And Bullock still lost by ten.

I think Tester could win but it would be a very narrow victory. And it certainly isn't a probably type win. The gap between Trump & Sheehy would have to be massive for that. Possible? Yes. Likely? I don't think so. Not with these polls.

[ColinC]

19. 2020 was special

And should be put into a category entirely on its own.

The fundamentals in that race were largely based on the ground game -which was easy to tell from the beginning. Door knocks make all the difference in an election, and when one side fundamentally did not believe that it is dangerous while the other side did, the ones willing to literally die to win an election -had an advantage (and still ultimately lost the election).

Democrats are substantially more enthusiastic than Republics and are entirely more motivated to turn out and register -one thing polling is telling us. Another is the fact that Kamala is dramatically over performing with white voters. If she is doing nearly as good as polls say she is doing with whites, she won’t just overperform them, she will blow Donald trump out of the frikkin water and bring Tester with her.

[Polybius]

20. I think you're overestimating her popularity with white males

She's not polling that well with white males, especially whites males in Montana. Zero chance Trump wins in Montana by less than 15 points.

[ColinC]

23. Montana aside, she's doing pretty well among whites

For instance: Biden lost the white vote by 17% and won the popular vote by more than 4%. For the crosstabs I could find right now, her worst polling among whites was losing by 17% and her best was losing by 6%. If I average the three I found together (one had her trailing by 12) she’s behind in white votes by about 11.6%. That’s gotta pay dividends on Election Day especially if she keeps pulling ahead in other key groups like Hispanic voters…(last one I saw she was ahead by 26%)

[Self Esteem]

26. Crosstabs are not accurate.

Just look at the crosstabs from 2020 polls.

Take FOX News' final poll from 2020.

They had Biden losing the white vote by six-points. He lost it by, as you said seventeen. That's an eleven-point difference.

Pretty significant.

[ColinC]

39. Cross tabs are as accurate as any other polling

2020 polling was off by substantially more than most polls cause of COVID and other factors that were harder to anticipate.

But using 2020 as a reference point isn’t going to be helpful seeing how much of a fluke that whole election was.

What 2020 did tell us is that Biden lost the white vote by 17 and won the pop vote by more than four. This tells us that if the polling is accurate now and Harris is losing the white vote by a 10 or so and maintains 2020 level support in other groups, she is likely to outperform Biden’s 2020 results substantially.

[Self Esteem]

48. This just isn't true.

Crosstabs have a higher MOE than traditional polling. So high in fact, that if polling generally had equal MOE as crosstabs, it would be considered unreliable.

But to your point: if Harris was only losing the white vote by ten, her polling margins would be much better than they are right now.

Take the most recent Emerson poll that has her doing about the same among white voters as Biden.

The point is that crosstabs should be taken with a grain of salt.

It's also important to understand that white support also varies depending on the state.

Biden lost white voters by 17 nationally in 2020 but in Pennsylvania, he did two-points better and "only" lost them by fifteen.

In Wisconsin, he only lost white voters by six points.

I don't see Harris doing better than 6 points in Wisconsin. I just don't.

[ColinC]

50. Fair enough.

Thanks for the info and rebuttal. I’ll get back to you if I think I have anything helpful to add

[Self Esteem]

6. Tester absolutely is in trouble.

He's not cooked just yet but it's getting close. Only one poll since July has shown him in the lead. That's concerning.

[2naSalit]

37. Too much weight put on polls.

Montana and polling is like GPS in a deep canyon. Accurate reading is not possible.

[2naSalit]

8. You think polls in Montana...

Have validity?

Who are they polling and how?

I question the results. I think it will sound ugly but I think Tester is safe. Might pull off a Harris win. Folks aren't all that forthcoming when it comes to personal politics and shy from those who ask. Probably polling a lot of recent arrivals who come here to "show us how things are done"... they also don't last more than three winters around here. but they come here with their investment cash and fuck over all the locals. Those are the ones getting polled, I suspect.

Knowledge of local culture is important, pollsters and census taker really miss this factor, especially when they come here from a heavily populated area.

[Polybius]

21. No chance

Montana is Bright Red. He's not losing there.

[2naSalit]

24. I hope...

You're wrong.

You keep telling us who we are, I find that offensive but that's what most people who don't know much about us say. There are a lot of Democrats here. It's the cheating that nobody talks about.

[Polybius]

52. I hope I'm wrong too, but you are free to bookmark

If I am wrong please let me know and I'll buy you a beer, but I believe Trump wins the state by 15-20. We shall see.

[Jack Valentino]

32. Testor might win, hopefully, but he has NEVER

been 'safe'.

Seems to me, his only hope is for the women's vote to defy all expectations,
and that he should lean hard into reproductive rights,
and stress the difference between his opponent and himself on that issue,
for the remainder of the campaign

[2naSalit]

33. Are you a Montana voter?

[LeftInTX]

56. I'm a Texas voter...

Red seems red to me. And we're stuck in red around here.

We have our blue pockets, but it's hard to get the red out.

I tend to think it's struggle for Tester. In 2012, he also had a Libertarian opponent who syphoned off 6.6% of the R votes.

This time, there is a Libertarian, who's an Armenian with an Arabized name. He's a Habitat for Humanity and children's cancer volunteer. https://libertysid.com/bio I don't know how many R votes he can syphon.

There is also a Green Party candidate.
In 2018, the Green Party candidate failed to obtain a place on the ballot.

[2naSalit]

36. TestER.

[DoBW]

40. gonna donate again and spread the story and link....thankyou

[pwb]

9. Montana women don't mind losing freedoms? No.

They may surprise us all come Election Day.

[WarGamer]

25. GOP women get abortions too... they can vote pro choice but vote RED on the ticket.

Saw a lot of that in 2023-24.

[pwb]

44. That does not make any sense. Why would a women

vote for a ballot issue giving her reproductive rights and then vote down ticket for someone who would take it away? That is a stretch even for Montana. IMO.

[Self Esteem]

49. It's not. Just go look at the exit polls from Ohio's 2022 senate race.

31% of those who said abortion should be legal were Vance supporters.

That's a pretty big number of Republicans who supported abortion being legal. It's still a minority of Vance supporters overall but enough that a significant amount of Vance supporters still believe abortion should be legal.

[WarGamer]

51. that's happened in EVERY state that's had it on the ballot.

[2naSalit]

10. Snort!

AARP poll?

I have one question;

n=?

[TheBlackAdder]

12. This is an AARP survey? I wonder how accurate it is with those under 50.

They aren't even listed in the hundreds of 538 polling firms.

[2naSalit]

35. What was the actul samle size?

Another important question to ask on this one.

I live in Montana and I see a lot of projection from folks who have either been here once or never.

[617Blue]

13. I just sent some $$$ - he really deserves re-election v. GOP carpetbagger.

[JCMach1]

15. Both seem to be outliers

[Polybius]

53. Both?

You don't think Trump's up by 15 in Montana? He won by 16 in 2020 and 20 in 2016.

[notroot]

17. Reproductive rights made it on the ballot in Montana, yah?

So far, that issue -- by itself -- has utterly and completely defied every polling prediction.

Polls rely on statistics. Statistics rely on historical data.

Sometimes things happen that defy historical trends. Reproductive rights on the ballot has been one of them.

I'm not counting him out yet. I don't live in Montana, so nothing I can do about it except contribute money (which I have done) to Tester. I recommend other non-Montanans do the same.

[Mysterian]

18. Heavily oversampled age 50 and over

It would have been appropriate to mention that in your OP.

[Polybius]

22. No need

You already did.

[DemocratInPa]

27. Harris has about a 1% chance to win Montana and that is being..

generous. Since 1952 Montana has only went blue twice, and now it is 100% Trump state.

Tester is also probably in trouble sadly there.

[2naSalit]

34. 100% trump?

Interesting because I live in Montana, have for several election cycles and I know I'm not the only Democrat in Montana.

[DemocratInPa]

45. and..

I meant 100% chance he is winning Montaana.. He beat Biden by 16 points in 2020, it will be about that again sadly.

[617Blue]

43. Are you truly sad? Lol.

[DemocratInPa]

46. what did I say wrong?

He won Montana in 2020 by 16 points... You think it's changing now?

Wanna bet on it?

[Bev54]

28. Isn't Sheehy the one that lied to rangers about a self inflicted gun shot wound?

And isn't he the same guy that is on tape saying derogatory things about Native Americans? Let's give it a little time, this guy will be revealed as who he really is. Tester has been in tough races before, I would not write him off.

[Jack Valentino]

30. I don't think anyone is writing him off, but reality says he is in trouble.

Democrats need to do everything they can to pull this one out for him,
because it will essentially decide which way the US Senate goes....

And more work on the US House, because we ABSOLUTELY must flip it
to ensure that it will be impossible for Republicans
to have a 'trifecta'

Testor's original victory to win this seat in 2006 was 'improbable'
due to the voting demographics of the state, but that election
was a 'blue-wave' year against the Iraq war, 2012 was the Obama re-election,
and 2018 was another blue wave year against Trump...

This year he does not have those 'wave' advantages--- so far as we know at this point.

I don't like what I'm seeing, but we can't give up on him, obviously.

[2naSalit]

38. Just look at how much...

Hay is being made over a questionable survey.

Too much is read into this one and just look how much invective is spewn in the direction of the voters in a state few of you have any idea about.

Local culture matters.

I find it offensive the way we get dumped on every time we get mentioned.

NOT ALL VOTERS IN MONTANA ARE FUCKING REPUBLICANS.

[Demsrule86]

41. I hope he wins. I don't think we hold the Senate without him.

[kansasobama]

42. Montana is a disaster

The desire of majority of GOP men to prefer dictatorship is outrageous. This is true elsewhere as well.

[Polybius]

55. It used to vote Democratic

Unlike neighboring Idaho which has always been far-right.

[Trenzalore]

47. Tester is probably a loss

[Polybius]

54. It's possible

But I'd like to see a couple of more polls first.