Poll reveals shift in race between Trump and Kamala in two big states

[riversedge]

It would take a miracle to flip these states--but miracles do happen!!



Poll reveals shift in race between Trump and Kamala in two big states
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-reveals-shift-in-race-between-trump-and-kamala-in-two-big-states/ar-AA1qb1Zc?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=9875b3421ac54892b769cbc3b6b1e325&ei=10#


Story by James Gordon For Dailymail.com • 16h

The race for the White House is tightening up in two states previously thought to be solidly Republican.

Latest polls suggest the southern states of Texas and Florida, which Trump carried comfortably by 5 points and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now far closer than at any time in the race.

Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020 securing 30 electoral votes, while Texas which has remained solidly red since 1976 was also won by Trump in 2020, garnering him 40 electoral college votes.

But the former president has seen his support erode among most demographic groups since his Democratic rival in the November 5 election, Vice President Kamala Harris, replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket over the summer.

Now in two states that were never considered swing states or toss-ups, things could be about to change with latest surveys from Emerson College suggesting Harris is now within the margin of error (about 3 points) in the two states.


The poll suggests Trump is only narrowly ahead in his home state of Florida at 50 percent with Harris at 45 percent.


https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1qaUQO.img?w=634&h=378&m=6
Latest polls suggest the southern states of Texas and Florida , which Trump carried comfortably by 5 points and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now far closer


https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1qaUQQ.img?w=634&h=423&m=6&x=207&y=96&s=223&d=129

Kamala Harris was welcomed by Senator John Fetterman and his wife Gisele Barreto Fetterman at Pittsburgh Airport on Friday



County elections supervisors revealed there are currently 5.3 million active Republican voters in Florida compared to 4.3 million active Democratic voters.

But Florida could still flip either way with a further 3.9 million voters who are either not affiliate with any political party or who affiliate with minor parties...............................

[orthoclad]

1. This is why TX and FL are busy suppressing the vote.

[flying_wahini]

17. Tx AG Paxton doesn't even TRY to hide it, either.

[orthoclad]

31. He's teflon.

[BluenFLA]

2. If there is money and time, Harris should go to Florida

Even if she loses the state, by going to Florida Trump will be forced to spend resources in defending his adopted home state whenever she or her high profile surrogates visit. Remember, she has a better ground game than him.

There is no way his ego can handle him losing the state to her. So he won't listen to reason as he blows his money in the state. They are already throwing away money just to air ads near Mar A Lago just to keep him happy.

As a bonus, the money and time he wastes in Florida is taken away from the Blue Wall states, which guarantees her victory up north.

[CrispyQ]

9. About that ground game of Trump's, here's a Michigan story.

https://democraticunderground.com/1016385309

This story is hilarious!

[displacedvermoter]

3. Kinda why the NY Times/Sienna poll seems

wrong to me. Trump is closing shop in places like NH, NJ and VA that were supposedly close not too long ago, but aren't any longer.

And swing states are now tightening or Harris has leads, states whose polling supposedly were the kiss of death for President Biden.

And now polls like these from Texas and Florida. The Times poll seems fishy, Trump cookie sales in PA notwithstanding.

[Lonestarblue]

27. The Times seems to have its thumb on the scale for Trump.

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

30. Also, it's a SINGLE poll. Seems to me it'd be logical to take several polls and average them to get the best percentages

Not sure whether they do that or not but that just seems wise.

[Gaytano70]

4. What has not changed is the disrespect for the female Democratic nominee by the "press."

WHY so they use his last name and her first name?

[Metaphorical]

7. Because Harris is such a presidential name

Gee, you'd almost think that they don't want her to win.

[birdographer]

13. They did the same thing with Hillary. n/t

[Kaleva]

33. That's how most people here call her

However, regarding Margaret Thatcher, most people called her by her last name . Pelosi is another example.

[msongs]

22. she is labeling herself by her first name. nt

[Gaytano70]

26. BS

IOW....what a load of MALARKY

[Kaleva]

35. You can buy merch labeled Kamala at her campaign website

She seems to be comfortable either way

[Gaytano70]

36. Give me a break

And stop ignoring context. False equivalency. The title of an article that is not a merchandise store. I call VP Harris Kamala with my friends, but talking is not writing. An article that names both candidates must show objectivity and balance. Stating just the first name is a diminutive when the other is presented as their last name.
Oh, and N.T

[Walleye]

5. I think it actually will take something close to a miracle to elect a woman to be president in this country

[MagickMuffin]

6. I disagree with their statement about when Texas became red

Governors of Texas
Rick Perry Republican December 21, 2000 - January 20, 2015
George W. Bush 2 Republican January 17, 1995 - December 21, 2000
Ann W. Richards Democrat January 15, 1991 - January 17, 1995
Mark W. White, Jr. Democrat January 18, 1983 - January 20, 1987

During Ann Richards last campaign Karl Rove started his whisper campaign that Ann was gay. That was the last time a Democrat has been elected to the governorship.

[griffi94]

10. To be fair

Richards wouldn't have won if Clayton Williams hadn't made a rape joke in front of some reporters.
She was trailing by a significant amount until that incident.
She ended up winning by a couple of points but with less than 50% of the vote.

It probably helps Kamala that Trump and Vance have attitudes toward women that Clayton Williams had.

[Self Esteem]

15. I think people forget that. Richards needed a prayer to win her election and she got it.

And she was out in four years.

She won by 2.6 points in 1990 against a guy, as you said, who joked about rape. Williams was a terrible candidate. He also refused to shake Richards' hand after their debate, which didn't help.

Still...he barely lost.

Texas was shifting further and further red even before Rove.

[Cirsium]

8. Poll nonsense

Then:

"...Florida, which Trump carried comfortably by 4 points in 2020..."

Now:

"The poll suggests Trump is only narrowly ahead in his home state of Florida at 50 percent with Harris at 45 percent."

Is a 5% margin comfortable or is it narrow?

[carpetbagger]

32. Agreed. The article makes a point beyond the data.

Similarly in Texas. Trump won by 5.6 percent and is ahead 5 percent in a poll. And the article was sloppy enough to forget that the EV numbers were different, unimportant but reinforces the sloppiness.

[MyMission]

11. Abortion and women's health issues

Are important issues and will motivate many women, and many men who love and care about them. Florida and Texas are 2 large states, which means larger female friendly populations who will vote blue. Both states were not landslides for tfg, but were fairly close within several percentage points. I think it's possible to gain one or both, with Florida more likely.

[birdographer]

14. Women have a choice

[GaYellowDawg]

12. We've heard this tune before.

Texas and Florida aren't happening.

[et tu]

19. i'll raise you a 3

legged dog that florida goes blue-
roevember is coming and a lot of snowbirds
from the north have migrated there.

[LAS14]

16. I don't see a shift of one point worth the headline.

The race for the White House is tightening up in two states previously thought to be solidly Republican.

Latest polls suggest the southern states of Texas and Florida, which Trump carried comfortably by 5 points and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now far closer than at any time in the race.

Now in two states that were never considered swing states or toss-ups, things could be about to change with latest surveys from Emerson College suggesting Harris is now within the margin of error (about 3 points) in the two states.

[LostOne4Ever]

18. Texas has been a conservative rightwing state since 1845

I was born and raised here and I can confidently say that has not changed and will not change in my lifetime.

Florida used to be a swing state so I could see it becoming one again.

[PennRalphie]

20. She has to win PA

She has to be crystal clear on fracking.

If she’s crystal clear, PA goes to her and the election is hers.

I have confidence she’s going to say and do the right thing. No ambiguity on fracking. It’s either a yes or a no.

PA voting is different this year. All of those ballots aren’t being sent out automatically.

[IronLionZion]

21. We didn't expect to win Georgia and Arizona last time

but here we are. And many didn't expect Obama to win as many new states as he did in 2008. High turnout is good for our side. Lots of new people are voting.

[Warpy]

23. I won't be surprised at a squeaker Harris victory in either or both

and not just because TFG stepped in a big pile of doodoo with his crowing about getting Roe overturned, it's because both states have autocratic asshole governors who have overstepped their bounds and a lot of people are sick of it.

Any Harris victory will likely be so close as to trigger an automatic recount, and recounts always seem to favor Democrats, and that will trigger TFG to start screeching about how rigged everything is, not sure if either Abbott or DeSatan will agree to another farce of a bunch of tech bros coming in like they know anything about elections and do a slow and theatricl recount, which will again favor Democrats. Expect high drama if Harris wins either state.

I want the Orange Tick to know it's all over but the prison term.

[ananda]

24. This is why Paxton is using intimidation and lawsuits to suppress the vote.

Of course, Garland and the DOJ are doing nothing about this.

[Indykatie]

25. A Closer Race at the Top of the Ticket Should Help Down Ballot Races n/t

[bucolic_frolic]

28. Mutually supporting Senate & presidential coattails raise turnout

We might have a shot in FL, but TX cheats so well it would be hard to believe

[OnDoutside]

29. Let's see the polls at the end of September, still too early.

[oasis]

34. We got this. Blue and purple states will be EZ!

[Persondem]

37. And both states have senate races that could decide control of the Senate.

If Harris/Walz have resources to fund down ballot races (as reported) then they can DO SOMETHING to move the needle even more in TX and FL.