***BREAKING*** A rated Survey USA Poll North Carolina -Harris 49% (+3) TFG 46%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[RidinWithHarris]

1. The latest NYT national poll is almost certainly an outlier

Everything else says the trends remain in Harris's favor.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Or it's what you would expect in a close race.

I've been thinking a lot about it. The French were so spooked by WW l that they built the Maginot Line which was supposed to be impenetrable, and the Germans just went around it. Pollsters were so spooked by previous misses they might be counting a lot of Trump voters who ultimately won't vote.

[RidinWithHarris]

8. In a reasonable world Trump would be so far behind even outlier polls couldn't get this close

If Harris wins that won't show we're a healthy democracy, just one that happened to be barely sane enough at just the right moment to forestall a crisis.

[paleotn]

48. That sounds like 2020.

DURING the Covid disaster, who the hell in their right mind would vote for Trump?

[paleotn]

47. Possibly. In my mind, it's a matter of who's excited and who's not.

And that's tough to model. In all my years, I've never seen Dems rally around a single candidate like this. Not even Obama. Not even Biden in 2020. On the other side....it's just the same old, tired stuff. Much of the Republican Party, that's not invested in the cult, may sit this one out. Dems won't. For independents, like I said, same old, tired stuff. They'll vote Harris or find other things to do.

[teran]

4. Probably why that had to "explain"

why it was the only "high quality" poll, since it was the only poll that flew on the face of all of the data and the other polls.

[samsingh]

12. i don't believe anything coming out of the nyt these days.

nothing.

[Self Esteem]

24. Two new national polls released today say otherwise.

Harvard-Harris has the race tied 50-50 and Pew has the race tied 49-49. Both align with the NYT poll that shows the race tied.

But I'm guessing a few here will suggest Pew Research, an independent branch of the Pew Charitable Trust, which has historically supported more progressive initiatives from police reform and maritime protection, is cooking their numbers too.

[obamanut2012]

25. I really appreciate your concern, dude

[Self Esteem]

27. You're welcome.

I think we're best served understanding the reality of this race instead of feeding into poll denialism (or only thinking the good polls are the real polls). Glad we agree on that.

[Tribetime]

31. There was an ABC A rated poll showing Harris up 52-46 LV today also

[NJCher]

34. This one?

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?id=113465657

[Tribetime]

35. Yes TY I think bigtree posted this morning

[Self Esteem]

38. The poll that article cites came out on September 1st.

if you click on the 'as previously reported' portion of the second paragraph, it takes you to September 1st's poll. This was just an article analyzing the data from that poll - not a new poll.

[Self Esteem]

37. That ABC poll was released on September 1st.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-abc-news-ipsos-poll-convention-bounce-widens-gap-women/story?id=113246534

[Tribetime]

43. Sorry I just saw it posted this morning thought it was new..thanks

[NJCher]

33. I found the Pew Poll

which says on Aug. 14 she was ahead of trump by one point, and then clicks to another page that says it's 50/50 on Sept. 9. So no problem finding those results.

However, on the Harvard Harris, it appears they want you to download a file. Really? I have to download a file? Did you download it?

[ColinC]

36. Well that's unfortunate. I hope they don't get caught up on national polls.

At the end of the day the only thing that will matter is what happens in PA, WI and MI. Heck I almost HOPE she loses the national popular vote and wins the electoral college, since that would get Republicans to realize the injustice of the electoral college and likely vote to change it.

[Mysterian]

41. National polls are meaningless

Republicans haven't won the popular vote for more than 20 years.

[RidinWithHarris]

44. Please, not this shit again

Nation polls are not MEANINGLESS. They tell you less than battleground state polls, but that's not the same thing as "MEANINGLESS".

Battleground states aren't in an entirely separate political universe from the rest of the country. They're battlegrounds BECAUSE they are closer to the middle ground of the whole country.

The bigger the gap in a national poll, the less likely the Electoral College result can diverge from the popular vote (which has only happened four times in US history -- we're just more sensitive to that problem because it has happened twice relatively recently).

If Harris starts to show as much as a +5 or more advantage in national polls, it will become very unlikely the Electoral College result will disappoint us.

[Mysterian]

45. Nope, they're meaningless

Just ask President Gore and President Hillary Clinton.

[krkaufman]

49. Except polling results, themselves, can influence voters

… and we’re not talking about voters with the most analytical of minds, at this point, if unable to assess the supreme unfitness for office that Trump represents.

[Mysterian]

69. I agree

National polls can have an effect to suppress voting, if they report one candidate has a sizeable lead.

[RidinWithHarris]

50. Again, just demonstrating you don't know the meaning of the word "meaningless"

And that you don't have a very good memory of what polling was showing in those elections either.

[Mysterian]

67. Too bad you don't understand our electoral system

National polls are meaningless.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

[RidinWithHarris]

70. I perfectly understand how the Electoral College system works

Please explain to me how the way the Electoral College works renders polling meaningless.

Utterly totally void of anything at all that could be used to gauge the current state of public opinion, and how that might relate to the odds of who will win the election.

I again remind you, one thing "meaningless" does not mean:

• Not perfectly predicative

If you claim the polls are meaningless, you must prove that polls and election outcomes are totally uncorrelated, as if the poll numbers were as meaningless as random numbers.

[BaronChocula]

57. Even anecdotal accounts suggest a Harris surge

When you have Republicans for Harris, but no real loss of Democrats to the rapist it's more indicative that the rapist is losing. It would also suggest a movement among independents in Harris' direction.

I don't make predictions because even pollsters don't know what they don't know about their polls. Add to that I don't really put much value in what Americans say they're going to do or how they feel, but the rhetorical preference is clearly Harris' side. I hope it's a lot less close than most are going along with suggesting it's going to be.

[kansasobama]

60. It was R+3

That was the reason. In 2020 they were D+6 and got burnt. So, they have overcompensated.

[Demsrule86]

65. The Times is stacking the deck for Trump.

Other pollsters are too.

[RidinWithHarris]

71. So that renders ALL polling UTTERLY DEVOID of meaning?

Meaningless would mean as unrelated to possible electoral outcomes as number picked totally at random.

That's what meaningless would mean.

[LexVegas]

2. Yes!! nt

[rogerballard]

5. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said Sunday that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins his state

then "she is the next president of the United States".


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-carolina-2024-election-kamala-harris-roy-cooper-face-the-nation/

[senseandsensibility]

6. Did he give any more details?

Not that I'm doubting him.

[rogerballard]

9. Short clip on at the link

From Face the Nation

[senseandsensibility]

11. Thanks

Sorry, I guess I didn't see it.

[dsc]

74. Well not literally true to be fair

but NC or GA replaces any one of the blue wall states and I don't see her winning NC and losing all two of the blue wall states. It also replaces GA so Trump couldn't win by winning all the rest of the states he won in 2020, GA and PA. In short, if she wins NC she almost certainly will win the White House.

[rogerballard]

7. 2008 Obama map...

[moonscape]

13. Totally forgot Obama

took Indiana. Wow!

[paleotn]

51. Yep. Indiana was a surprise. It was an early celebration for us in 2008

When Ohio went blue, Karl Rove damn near blew a gasket. It was over. Done.

[Wanderlust988]

18. What a beautiful map!

Still can't believe Obama won Indiana!

[onetexan]

42. and Ohio!!

[krkaufman]

53. And ...

Ohio[20] and Indiana[11] …

and Florida … 27
and Iowa … 7

… brings the EV ceiling down to 300, just Pennsylvania plus one other state away from misery.

[dsc]

73. Well that won't happen

No way she gets Iowa, Indiana, or Ohio. I also have grave doubts about Florida. But I can see Arizona and Georgia as distinct possibilities.

[JohnSJ]

10. Will the illustrious press spend as much with this poll as they did with the NY Times

Poll.

Something tells me they won’t.

[MMBeilis]

14. Only 36 more posts and you're in the big leagues.

[Kaleva]

32. The 100k milestone

[Sky Jewels]

15. Fuck yeah!

[lindysalsagal]

16. We get NC, we don't need PA.

[MarcoZandrini]

20. We need...

…PA to make sure we get enough electoral college votes.

[Upthevibe]

21. lindysalsagal...........

NC has a lunatic as the Republican candidate running for Governor, Mark Robinson (the current Lt. Governor) in N. Carolina.

This may very well help us in our GOTV efforts as Stein (the Democratic candidate) is currently ahead by 11 points (538) and I think people really don't want Robinson as Governor.

[lindysalsagal]

23. Robinson is even worse than tscf, if that's possible.

Bastards want Handmaid's Tale to be real.

[Shermann]

58. I have to believe Robinson will reduce the number of straight party votes by Republican voters. nt

[SomedayKindaLove]

30. Not necessarily

Wisconsin, Michigan and PA…..Harris wins even if she loses NC, GA, AZ, NV

Wisconsin, Michigan and NC…Harris also needs another swing state

[kansasobama]

61. We want PA

We need a blowout , not close win.

[senseandsensibility]

17. As Tom Bonier just tweeted,

Somehow I don't think Nate Silver will be quote tweeting this poll like he did with the NYT one.

[PortTack]

26. For those unaware, Silver was fired from 538 and now works for peter thiel

[Tarheel_Dem]

72. Silver was fired from 538? I thought he was the founder and head honcho.

[MarcoZandrini]

19. We need to be...

….up by 10!

VOTE BLUE!

[barbtries]

22. i moved here in 2007.

the following year, we voted for Obama. It's been a loooong 16 years with republicans fucking shit up. This makes me so happy.

[Chasing Dreams]

28. Now that's a bounce!

In the face of relentless negative ads in NC.

WOW!

[senseandsensibility]

40. Are there pro Harris ads too?

I hope there are!

[Chasing Dreams]

54. I'm sure there are

I don’t live there but I’ve read the ad spending is high in NC. And the repukes are relentlessly negative, while we are more balanced.

Hopefully someone from NC can weigh in!

[Kid Berwyn]

29. It's happening!

Keep up the good work, D!

[appleannie1]

39. Slow but sure wins the race.

I expect a bump in the right direction after tomorrow night. He will probably go off in a ramble at some point. He can't help himself. He loves to talk but never makes sense.

[azureblue]

46. The polls

are slanted towards people who answer their phones, who have land lines, and and male.
People I know in the sub 40 group are not in that group, and they are sick of old people making their lives hard. Younger women, who are not getting polled, will be coming out in droves.
This election will be a wake up call to traditional media, because they will see how irrelevant they are to the younger generations.. Who, again, are pissed off and want change..

[paleotn]

52. From your typing fingers to God's ear.

[paleotn]

55. If NC goes blue, GA and FL aren't far behind.

In fact I'd expect GA before NC.

[kansasobama]

62. Actual, as per SurveyUSA, we are losing GA

We don't want that .

[J_William_Ryan]

56. "In a reasonable world Trump would be so far behind even outlier polls couldn't get this close"

Exactly.

That the polls are so close is madness, half the nation is insane.

[kansasobama]

64. Half the nation is indeed insane

Yes

[Shermann]

59. I like a four-point lead more than a three-point lead, but like a three-point lead more than a two-point lead.

A two-point lead is the train to Hillaryville.

[kansasobama]

63. Hillaryville was 3 point in popular vote

State polls can be even half point

[Shermann]

68. 48.2% versus 46.1%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

[Cha]

75. Kick TY!