Reality check - It's a Tied Race: Unskewing polls or dunking on Nate Silver is not going to win us this election.

[realtruthflavor]

As Michelle Obama says we all need to be doing something! That means registering voters, knocking on doors, making phone calls, writing post cards, contributing. Let's do the work and then celebrate. To quote our VP nominee "Sleep can wait until we are dead".

[Keepthesoulalive]

1. I can do both

Truth is very important and we need to fight lies on all fronts.

[TheBlackAdder]

84. A fresh article on RawStory says Silver is being paid by Peter Thiel

I’m on my first Apple phone so I haven’t figured out how to post links.

[TheBlackAdder]

95. Not sure, but since Thiel is a hardcore Trumper there might have been come creative spinning.

[obamanut2012]

2. lol

[Aepps22]

3. The Truth is that GOTV is What Matters

I keep saying the same thing and that's we all need to double down on donating, volunteering and making sure our family and friends and registered to vote and will vote. Too many people want to sit on the sidelines and worry about or dismiss polls when there is work we can all do to get the win.

[Mad_Machine76]

6. Turnout Turnout Turnout!!

[kcr]

7. This finger wagging isn't helpful

Honestly, who around here says all we have to do is complain about the polls in order to win? I've not seen that even once. Fear and anxiety has never been a motivator. I wish we had an unrec button.

[iemanja]

103. It's an important reminder

We all need to do our part.

[Think. Again.]

8. it isn't a "tied" race...

We just need to make sure we get Dem voters to the polls, especially in swing states.

[Think. Again.]

19. Massive turnout, donations, and social media for Harris...

...compared to that trump thing tell me differently.

[lees1975]

31. There is no longer any such thing as a "high quality national poll."

There is only the narrative that the media wants you to believe

[Demsrule86]

49. This poll was caught deliberately fucking with sample size previously. I think they should print it on

toilet paper. At least then it would be useful.

[lees1975]

75. Of course they were, after they adjusted their data when it became clear that they were off, a couple of weeks out.

All of that tightening a couple of weeks before. But NYT/SIena was the "red wave" poll, predicting Mehmet Oz would win PA, Herschel Walker would win GA, and the Democrats would lose the house by double digit seats. Their apologetics are pretty good but 55 days before the midterm, they were very solid on the Red Tsunami path.

And it is interesting their numbers are not anywhere in the same range as other national polls, which are consistent with ABC's numbers. What's up with that? Even Fox has her up by 6.

[onecaliberal]

76. You mean the polls owned by trump supporters?

[whopis01]

64. It is tied. They are both have zero votes right now.

You are absolutely correct - turnout is the key, especially in swing states.

Enthusiasm is going to be what wins this election and is what will win many down-ballot elections in this race as well.

I agree with your other post as well - all signs are pointing to surging enthusiasm for Harris. Personally I think it is going to be a blowout. I think that the polls, for the most part, accurately capture what the people surveyed are thinking - but I think the polls are far less accurate at predicting who is actually going to show up and vote.

I find it almost impossible to believe that anyone is still deciding if they prefer Harris or Trump. Even less likely that someone in one camp is going to switch to the other camp at this point. But there are a lot of people who may or may not turn out to vote. That is going to be the key to winning.

[Think. Again.]

69. Good points...

....I also think that a lot will depend on whether Harris can find a way to spark an interest in those who don't normally care about politics at all.

I believe that was the basis of trump's rise, he was the first "politician" who encouraged a portion of society to act out on their worst instincts. No one involved in politics ever tried to appeal to people who were so socially shunned before, so they all of a sudden became politically active.

If Harris can show people how being a "good" person be a political stand, we can hopefully build on the number of people who actually vote.

[Self Esteem]

83. If 2020 wasn't a blowout, 2024 won't be either.

And Harris is not expecting anything remotely close to a blowout. Their campaign anticipates a very close election either way. It's not going to be a blowout. Especially in the EC.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

71. She has been going further down in the polls and lost momentum.

Don’t be in denial.

[displacedvermoter]

10. Debunking untruths and demonstrating

how the media is using misinformation is effective political action. Calling out clear efforts by MSM to manipulate voters by using skewed polling is important in showing the media in their true colors.

Not the same as sticking heads in the sand, or not working hard on GOTV efforts.

But when polls over several weeks before Times/Sienna, and polls of last few days after Times/Sienna contradict that downer drop, it is fair to point out and to criticize the motivation.

[Self Esteem]

14. It's not just the NYT now.

Three major national polls have come out since the NYT/Siena poll was released Sunday and all essentially have the race a toss-up:

Pew (heavily respected pollster) has the race tied.

Marist (another respected pollster) has Harris +1.

Harvard-Harris (less respectable than the other two) has the race tied.

Then you can throw in the Morning Consult poll that has Harris +3).

And the Emerson poll from last week that shows Harris +2 and it's clear the polls are tightening. Maybe it's a big ol conspiracy and they're all in on it (not sure what Pew has to gain, especially since the Pew Trust is a left-leaning organization) or maybe the polls really are close and when Harris says this race is going to be extremely close, it's going to be extremely close. It's not just talk.

We need to understand that this election is likely to be closer than it was four years ago and it was pretty close four years ago.

Maybe the dynamics change in the next month and a half but right now? I'm betting on this being extremely close and yes, that means we can still lose this.

[Self Esteem]

11. Many here are falling for the same trap Republicans fell into in 2022.

The irony is that these same people will use 2022 as proof Harris is likely up big since the polls predicted a red wave that never materialized.

But the polls never predicted a red wave/ tsunami. That was just the Republican narrative because they refused to believe the polls. Every poll that didn't show Republicans up big was wrong. Their entire premise was based on the idea that Biden was so unpopular, and the conditions of the country, from inflation to gas prices, so off that there was no way, absolutely zero chance, this was close.

So, of course the red wave would happen. Just as it did in 2010!

But again, the polls didn't predict a red wave. Polls were extremely close across the board, especially congressional generic balloting, which had Republicans +3 and... they won by +3. That was dramatically off their 2010 total.

If anyone paid attention to the polls, they would have seen the race was tight.

And there were plenty of polls predicting Democrats to hold the senate.

One such poll was the NYT/Siena poll that everyone now says is total trash. In 2022? Their final poll was spot on:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-toplines.html

In Arizona, they had Kelly +5. He won by 4.9 points,
In Pennsylvania, they had Fetterman +5. He won by 4.9 points.
In Georgia, they had Warnock +3. He won by 2.8 points.
In Nevada, they had Cortez Masto and Laxalt tied. Cortez Masto won by less than a percentage point.

People need to recalibrate their expectations because this election is a toss-up. You talk to those in the Harris campaign and they'll tell you she's an underdog for a reason and it's because she has way more "must-win" states to defend that she can't really afford to lose compared to Trump.

Trump could lose Pennsylvania and still win. Harris losing Pennsylvania doesn't end her campaign but it makes it very difficult to win.

Trump can even lose Georgia and win.

This is a tight race. It might not stay that way. Maybe Harris opens up a big lead after the debate. But there is little evidence of a big lead right now. Anyone who thinks she's up big is just wishcasting at this point.

[Demsrule86]

17. Is that so...personally I find doom and gloom troubling.

[displacedvermoter]

18. Poll framing is what I have a problem with

a tied race or a one point Trump lead (all within MOE) are regularly presented as evidence of some major trend. Harris leads of the same or larger are, indeed, portrayed as the close race you are sure is the reality.

It was same, or worse, when President Biden was down by similar numbers, or tied. A Times poll last October was the kickoff of the Dump Joe movement, when similar close numbers were framed as evidence of doom.

Reverse Happy Talk is no better than too much enthusiasm, to me at least.

[kcr]

37. Pretending that polls are ironclad predictors

is flat-out wrong. The fact you are even pointing at October polls as an indicator of anything shows you know nothing on this topic. Those polls were indeed used as a cudgel to get Biden out, but that doesn't make them accurate. Between our media and the loss of landlines, polls will always show a tight race, no matter what the actual picture is. Enthusiasm and voter turnout are what work. Not handwringing and naysaying.

[DoBW]

100. I'm going with Prof. Allan Lichtman

with his ring of keys
https://www.yahoo.com/news/election-forecaster-allan-lichtman-predicts-172438282.html

[Demsrule86]

23. It is trash now...they have changed their methods...

[Self Esteem]

25. Their polls match two other respected polls that show the race tied.

Pew and Marist.

But I'm sure they're trash too.

[LW1977]

30. Yep

Polls have been trash since 2016

[Self Esteem]

41. Except the ones that were spot on, right?

IDP/TIPP had Biden up four in their final poll of 2020. Pretty close to his actual margin.

Emerson had Biden +5. Again, right about his margin.

Both polls this go around show a tight race.

Emerson has Harris +2.
IDP/TIPP has Harris +3

[kcr]

38. Yes. As predictors they are trash

If you are expecting that polls will ever show a definitive lead either way in the age of cell phones and the media, you will be waiting a long time.

[Self Esteem]

39. I'm pretty sure they had cell phones in 2020.

And plenty of polls had Biden up with a definitive lead.

[kcr]

42. That lead was actually over-stated

The race ended up being closer. Polls suck at predicting outcomes.

[Self Esteem]

45. Polls generally give you a good perspective of what the race looks like.

In 2020, the polls indicated Biden was the favorite and he won. Especially the state polls.

In 2016, polls indicated there was a high non-Hillary/Trump vote that potentially meant, if either candidate could win them over, that the race could shift late. The polls were generally close in the end. Again, helped give us the perspective that the race was tight.

It was the same in 2012. National polls pointed to a close national race, while Obama was leading consistently in most major swing state polls. What do you know? The polls were generally right in predicting a closer national race and a more comfortable electoral college win.

The polls show a tight race this go around. I see no evidence that at this time, this race isn't close - if not a toss-up.

I don't look at polls to predict who will win. But I do think they're an indicator right now who is the favorite and if Harris is, it's by a very small margin.

[kcr]

48. There it is. Margin.

You've been ignoring that up until now. The polls could be showing it's a very tight race. It could actually be better. Or worse. There's no way to know. Polls have sometimes been closer to the results. And sometimes they've been far away. That is why freaking out about them is next to useless. Beating people up because they express this reality even more so.

[Self Esteem]

50. I've not ignored anything.

And I reiterate what I was told meeting my brother who works for the Harris campaign in Delaware as a data analyst: this race is close. At this time, there is no indication that Harris has a comfortable lead. It's a toss-up election. It might change the closer we get to November but at this moment, it's a 50/50 ballgame... just as the polls suggest.

But when people point out the possibility this election is very close, they're dismissed as concern trolling. It's just not true. This is going to be a tough election and if we don't want voters to disengage from it because they can't handle that toughness, then we need to be upfront here.

Just the other day there was a poll here where over half of DUers said Harris was going to win by Obama 2008 or Clinton 1996 levels.

I'm sorry but there is no evidence of that and yes it concerns me that our side is effectively denying the data that's out there.

I think Harris wins. But I also know this is going to be brutally close and we need to prepare for it to be close so that every voter understands what's at stake.

[Bev54]

72. Polls should be used to watch trends, nothing more.

[Self Esteem]

74. Trends and mood.

I do think if the polling consensus is that a candidate leads by 15, they're probably going to win the race.

But polling is not predictive really. I agree with the poster there. But it does at least indicate how a race is shaping up, whether it'll be a toss-up or what.

Polling tells us November is likely to be very close. That can change but people should not dismiss polling solely because it's not favorable.

As I said in my first reply, anyone who looked at the polling in 2022 knew the midterms would be close and that there was no real sign of a red wave.

In 2010? There was a sign. The polls all leaned heavily Republican. And surprise, they won by a lot.

[Aepps22]

24. The Real Trap Is Focusing On Polling Instead of Actually Helping.

The real trap is that it seems like many people on our side are focused on this poll or that poll and arguing about whether Kamala is ahead, tied or behind while not doing a single thing to actually help her win. There are numerous volunteer opportunities like phone banking, text banking, post card writing to swing states that are begging people to help. Polls in September whether positive or negative don't help unless they spur action.

https://go.kamalaharris.com/

[Self Esteem]

26. I've maxed out my contributions to Harris.

I volunteer for the campaign. My brother is actually working for the Harris campaign in Delaware. I'm doing everything I can to get her elected. And yes that includes keeping people grounded. This election is going to be brutally close and as someone who has worked on many close campaigns, sometimes the biggest demotivators for voters is believing a candidate is up significantly and then maybe realizing they might not be. It's emotionally draining and those are the voters who often check out because they have not prepared for the fight and instead ignore the data.

That's why Harris keeps telling people they're the underdog. It's not just a campaign tactic - it's the truth. They understand that people ignoring the truth could lead to that mistrust of the reality of the race and then that can impact donations, volunteering and getting people to the polls.

They can't afford people disengaging and those most likely to disengage are voters who can't handle the tough narrative of a tight race because they convinced themselves the race was going to be a walk and all the polls were wrong.

[Sympthsical]

43. I've reiterated that here a billion times. Deaf ears.

The polls were historically good in 2020 and 2022. The Red Tsunami was a media invention. The polls never had that in the numbers.

In 2022, I made a few posts here with my predictions three weeks out. They were on the nose. How? I combed through the polls and the data and got a basic idea of where things stood.

But people will pick at things - "That one Republican pollster was included!" - and use a small singular thing to discredit a much larger true thing with numerous correct data points. It's just pulling threads because they need to falsify the past in order to make the present palatable.

It's been stated a billion times, but one more for the cheap seats: This is an enthusiasm election. Whoever has the most enthusiasm is going to generate the better turn out. And turn out is very much what's going to take a swing state.

It's going to be that simple.

[Cosmocat]

92. YEP

that is my sense, too.

[blogslug]

15. I agree, GOTV is the correct action

But I think we deserve dunks on Nate Silver as a treat.

[TBF]

52. GOTV is critical, that I hope we can all agree on!! nt

[Demsrule86]

16. Welcome! Enjoy your stay...and the polls are up and down...

in fact one of them shows Florida within two points. It is not a tied race.

[LAS14]

34. Welcome to DU!! Meant sincerely. Sometimes this place veers too far into a bubble. nt

[Demsrule86]

46. You decide. In general we support Democrats here...so we are likeminded

[TBF]

51. Not to mention there is a TOS for the board (like most forums) -

it is a good idea for new members to read it and make sure they're comfortable with what the site supports.

[Demsrule86]

59. That is a very good suggestion.

I still have to read it occasionally to refresh my memory.

[Demsrule86]

88. Sure...

[obamanut2012]

57. lol

[onenote]

21. "Enjoy your stay" is something often posted in response to a troll

Do you think realtruthfavor is a troll? I ask because I agree with pretty much everything he/she wrote and I've been here 20 years.

[kcr]

27. I'm sure trolls get agreed with on DU by longtimers from time to time

It doesn't make them any less trolls. And troll or not, the OP is wrong.

[kcr]

44. Did they actualy come here on DU and berate people for complaining about the polls?

with no other context? If so, I deeply apologize.

[obamanut2012]

58. Well said

This thread has several folks like that.

[obamanut2012]

60. "tough love"

lolololol

kk

[RobinA]

80. On DU

going against the groupthink is trolling. You can either live with it...or not.

[Demsrule86]

54. Thanks for letting me know. And this discussion is not appropriate.

[Demsrule86]

89. I guess mistakes are made...

I have never said I get to decide anything.

[Maru Kitteh]

68. Meh. The discussion seems appropriate enough. "The polls are all wrong" is part of what

got us 2016. I'm keen on avoiding that tragic outcome again myself. It is essentially tied within the margin of error in many places that matter, and we need to fight like we are 2 points behind everywhere. I think Coach and Kamala Harris would both say that, and I think they would say we have to get out there and do something. None of this seems inappropriate to me. Just because poll Z has flaw X does not lead to "all polls are corrupt and wrong" just because we want something different.

[Demsrule86]

90. That is not what I was talking about when I used the word appropriate

[MarineCombatEngineer]

112. Turns out MIRt thought so and delivered the well earned pizza.

[awesomerwb1]

22. Nate Silver works for a predictions market

He's more like an odds maker now so he benefits from close races and playing with the numbers to attract bettors. Go check out Polymarket.

And he can go kcuf himself.

I agree with the rest of your post.

[Demsrule86]

63. He also works for Peter Thiel and spits out right wing polls these days.

Polling expert and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver updated his presidential election forecast Sunday and gave GOP nominee Donald Trump a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in November, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris trailing with only a 36 percent chance.

As if anything worthwhile comes from this asshole...Nate Silver.
https://www.rawstory.com/nate-silver-is-paid-by-peter-thiel-never-trumper-scrambles-after-pro-trump-poll-predict/

[LAS14]

29. Good on ya! as my Australian friend would say. nt

[obamanut2012]

61. Why is the OP "good on ya"?

[Demsrule86]

66. I agree...and Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel. Rightwing polls on demand these days

One of his shitty polls used Texas as a swing state to make it seem Harris was losing swing state voters.

[LAS14]

77. Because I like the post. I'm energized by clear thinking. Don't like bubbles. nt

[lees1975]

33. Polls are commercial, money making entities.

Looking at what they say doesn't stop me from working hard for this campaign.

But I'll take bets that if everything is truthful and known, Kamala is 10 points a head and running away with it.

[Prairie Gates]

47. brooklyn Mets fan?

Or Queens?

[bullimiami]

55. The real reality is polls are not elections. And these polls are as reliable as tossing dice.

So really we don’t know if it’s tied or much of anything.

[GreenWave]

56. Reverse finito: Explain what Harris did to lose her advantage?

Not even a DNC bounce In her favor. Pollsters need to answer the question, not cherry pick pro-Trump polls and just run with that.

Our boots on the ground need re-affirmation that their work is working, not demoralizing manufactured pollster "consensus"

[Bev54]

73. Until you can tell us all if they are using up to date voter rolls that include

new voters, then I will ignore the polls and just look at the trends.

[Self Esteem]

70. The polls we're seeing today don't show her losing the advantage.

Pew is not a pro-Trump pollster. They are part of the Pew Charitable Trust, which has supported a great deal of progressive initiatives, including police reform and environmental policies.

Their last poll had Harris +1 back at the start of August. Today? It's tied. That's movement well within the MOE. It's essentially unchanged if you want to look at it statically (it was a statistical tie in August and it's a statistical tie now).

Emerson has Harris +2. Their last poll done in August had Harris +4. A two-point swing is not statistically significant.

Marist has Harris +1. Their last poll at the start of August, had Harris +3. Again, as is with the Emerson poll, a two-point swing is not statistically all that significant.

A lot of people here latched onto outlier polls that were from lesser known and reputable pollsters like Outward Intelligence that has Harris +7. Who are they? I don't know. Had never heard of them before this election cycle.

But for the most part, Harris' lead has been between 1-4 points. All these polls are within that MOE. So, the only thing that has changed is that we saw Harris building a lead after Biden was down in pretty much every poll, and Harris trailed in her initial polls. So, we went from -4 with Biden to -2 for Harris when she entered to her taking the lead on average from +1 to +2 to +3 and that was even before the convention which would certainly add to the lead. Except it really didn't.

Her lead stalled out at 3.6% according to 538. It's now 2.8. A .8 drop is, again, statistically insignificant.

This race has always been close but the rush of watching the race go from Biden being down in the polls, to Harris leading led us up expect that lead to continue growing. It isn't. And that should have been the expectation from the start. This was always going to be close.

[Scrivener7]

78. I love when brand new posters take it upon themselves to tell us what's wrong with us. It's so refreshing.

[Scrivener7]

82. Yes, I know. As I said, you've arrived to tell us all what's wrong with us.

How did we ever do without you?

[obamanut2012]

85. Well said

[SWBTATTReg]

101. Absolutely.

[Demsrule86]

91. I know right...

[senseandsensibility]

86. It's not either or

Pointing out polling bias is perfectly reasonable and certainly more likely to help than just staying quiet and going along with the media narrative.

[Tweedy]

87. You are right

Nonetheless, do ignore Nate Silver. His gambling issues combined with his Thiel funding render his “takes” highly questionable

He also has been relying on right wing pollsters to get his “takes” that he used to eschew as using terrible methodology.

[Torchlight]

96. Who is asserting that criticizing polls will change an election?

Who is asserting nothing needs to be done? Congregation's over there, this is the choir.

[jimfields33]

129. Deep.

[ProfessorGAC]

97. Ridiculous

Pedantic nonsense. Just what everybody here hoped for; a "listen to me because I'm the only smart one here" post.
BTW: with DECADES of mathematical analysis under my belt, I disagree with your underlying premise.

[obamanut2012]

99. You go, Prof

[Demsrule86]

102. I knew you were a math guy!

[iemanja]

108. You disagree with GOTV?

You disagree that the race is close? That’s what the Harris campaign says.

[ProfessorGAC]

122. My Post Was In English

The OP was, too.
Not sure the source of your confusion.
I certainly did not say what you claim I said.

[iemanja]

128. He made two points

The polls are tied--which means they are within the margin of error
and we need to GOTV

You said that is not mathematically sound.

So which part of that is not mathematically sound?

[ProfessorGAC]

130. I Didn't Say "Points"

I said "premise". There was only one premise.
To answer your question, it presumes an accuracy of the polls not clearly in evidence.
To whit: Harris had a big enthusiasm bounce. Then supposedly, the "momentum" was lost.
When looking at data, a shift in trends needs to be related to an assignable cause.
So, the question is: what did TFG do to regain support in the middle, or; what dud Harris do to lose said support?
If those questions can't be answered, it suggests that the noise is in the measurement itself.
Therefore, I think there is reason to question the validity of the numbers upon which the OP was based.
The premise was that the race is tied. I don't see that as a mathematical fact.

[iemanja]

131. Oh.

The Harris campaign says it's very close. That's what they say in their emails soliciting donations and volunteers. Of course, they don't want supporters to become complacent.

I don't see a lot of polls with Harris leading more than the margin of error. People tend to overestimate small polling differences. That worries me. Polls of course have been notoriously unreliable in recent years, so the smart play is to work like we are running from behind (hence the campaign's messaging that Harris is an underdog). It will be interesting to see if the debate moves the polls.

[ProfessorGAC]

133. No Objection

I don't actually see any reason why it's close, I don't believe it is, but running as if one is behind is a good tactic.
So, if they want to fund raise as if the help is critically important, I'm all for it.
But, I still don't have to trust those numbers when they are logical reasons to be dubious.

[GoneOffShore]

123. Excellent - And it looks like you're channeling The Magistrate!

[ProfessorGAC]

125. He And I Got On Famously

Had beers with him a couple times. He was a genuine gentleman.

[Wiz Imp]

98. The last 10 polls listed on 538 show Harris ahead in 8 of them...

by an average of 3 percent. Trump leads in only 1. 1 is tied. I have no clue how that equates to a reality of a tied race. Those of us who understand and believe in math see a reality where Harris maintains a slight lead.

[obamanut2012]

104. The OP has veen Tombstoned

[iemanja]

106. Their point is nonetheless important

We need to GOTV.

[obamanut2012]

109. It really isn't, though

Mathematically incorrect.

[iemanja]

111. It's mathematically incorrect to GOTV?

How many polls are outside the margin of error?

[obamanut2012]

120. That isn't their point

[MarineCombatEngineer]

107. Buh bye.

Thank you MIRt for taking out the trash.

[lees1975]

110. Reality check--the media is skewing the polls, it is not tied and you are gullible for buying any of this.

Nate Silver is in Peter Thiel's pocket and that, and other billionaries, are where these poll numbers are coming from.

[iemanja]

113. He no longer works for Theil.

How many polls have Harris ahead beyond the margin of error?

[lees1975]

114. Tell me you're not that gullible.

[iemanja]

116. He just posted it on X

Rather, what he said is that Theil doesn’t pay him anymore than he pays someone who works at FB or Lyft, so take that as you will.

Have you done an analysis of the polls? You seem quite certain the race isn’t close, which is the opposite of what the Harris campaign says. I asked you a simple question since you seem so adamant that Kamala Harris is not telling the truth. Do many polls show her ahead beyond the margin of error? They don’t appear that way to me, but I haven’t done a detailed analysis.

Also, I’ve noticed that people get strangely angry when reminded to GOTV.

[obamanut2012]

124. Lol so yes, he works for him

No one is angry about gotv on here, ever. Saying so is not factual.

Why are you carrying water for a MIRTed troll? Cone on, man.

[iemanja]

127. I'm carrying the water for the Harris campaign

and you haven't yet given a response to why you are certain they aren't telling the truth.

[obamanut2012]

121. Yes, he does work for Thiel

[Iggo]

115. Enthusiasm is part of it. A HUGE part of it.

[iemanja]

117. Yes, and hopefully that motivates people

To volunteer.

[Iggo]

118. Well, you don't get out the vote by pouring cold water on enthusiasm. That much I know.

[iemanja]

119. Do you think that's what the Harris campaign is doing?

Because the emails I get either talk about how she is an underdog or how tight the polls are. Why people respond so negatively to that same message here, I don’t know, other than perhaps they resent the suggestion that they might need to volunteer to bring us over the edge. I’ve noticed people respond negatively to GOTV threads.

[jujubeets]

126. Enjoy your stay is weak

We know polls have been unreliable and are used to draw clicks and views by aggravating us. We also know reading between the lines that while we aren't looking at another Reagan v Mondale we are looking at a close race due to the archaic Electoral College.

We REALLY need to finish him with a debate and interview on Fox. Go into cheato's home territory and dominate again!

[obamanut2012]

132. The OP was PPRed, so you are talking to a ghost

So, "enjoy your stay" seems to have been 100% on point about OP.