Here's what really scares me.

[RedSpartan]

And WaPo has a lot of good information on this in its polling average analysis section...

Trump has consistently overperformed his polling by 2, 3, 4 points, depending on the state. If that's still the case, he's ahead in all the swing states.

I really am afraid that there are enough people -- maybe not many, but enough -- who remember the economy of the Trump years with rose-colored glasses and will not tell a pollster they are voting for him but will in the booth. Because it's still the enonomy, stupid. (And to be clear, the "great" Trump economy was the one he inherited from Obama.)

Talk me down.

[obamanut2012]

1. Kk

[Brainfodder]

2. Explain how he has gained any voters, and feel good when you can't.

[RedSpartan]

9. He has more voters than the polls show, is the point.

And how has he gained more, if any? One word: inflation. Read the infuriating articles with so-called "undecided voters" even after the debate.

[Brainfodder]

12. BULLSHIT is what I call on all of this! Russian Ops and all of it still in play!

No more subtle, GOT IT!


BULLSHIT!

[NoMoreRepugs]

3. IMO it now falls on MSM to own up to the fact the SlobFather is unqualified.

[RedSpartan]

10. Explain please; help me out.

And Semper Fi.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

14. Ya know what?

I'm going to delete my post and trash this thread because I don't want to read any doom and gloom threads after the ass kicking VP Harris gave to Been A Dick Donald last night.

Thank you and Semper Fi.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

17. I'm with you.

I am so tired of the fear mongering.

Last night was everything wonderful and more.

[livetohike]

5. I think people will remember how he mismanaged

COVID (especially if they lost loved ones), wrecked the economy, shortages at the grocery stores, etc. maybe they need to be reminded.

[Omnipresent]

6. I'm not sure how the numbers are going to go in his direction...

He lost the 2016 vote by about 3 million votes, then lost to President Biden in 2020 by about 7 million votes.

With what fatigue, rational Democratic and Independent voters have come to know him by in 2024 election cycle. I don’t see him completely erasing that 7 million votes in 2020, to pull ahead of Kamala and win.

[Dennis Donovan]

7. The 'vibecession' is ending as the U.S. economy nails a soft landing, economists say

The ‘vibecession’ is ending as the U.S. economy nails a soft landing, economists say

Published Mon, Sep 9 20241:52 PM EDT Updated Mon, Sep 9 2024 3:30 PM EDT

Key Points
-For months, there’s been a “vibecession.” That’s a disconnect between how well the economy is doing and how people feel about their financial standing.

-Now, recent economic data and consumer sentiment are more in line, some experts say.

-“The problem with the recessionistas is, of course, they will always at some point be right,” says Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.

For months, economists have wrestled with the disconnect between how well the economy is doing and how badly people feel about their financial standing.

Now, evidence suggests that the so-called vibecession, or that prolonged period of negative sentiment about the economy, appears to be ending, according to Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

As inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates, Americans’ assessments of the future are improving, which is bringing the country’s economic standing more in line with consumer sentiment, Pearce wrote in a report published Friday.

/snip/

“Consumer confidence seems to be catching up with where the economy is,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. “They are kind of meeting in the middle.”

/snip

Article is only 2 days old, but it shows there's a shift in consumer confidence.

And, the "sanewashing" of Trump by the corporate media seems to be lessening, as even the NYT is reporting on his mental fitness.

I'm confident the Harris/Walz campaign will do an adequate job reminding the electorate that 2017-2021 was NOT a "finest hour for the economy" era.

I'm confident we will prevail in November. What I fear is what MAGA will do when he loses again. J6 might've been just a small glimpse into what they're really capable of.

[mopinko]

11. he cant do it again. he doesnt have access to the levers of power.

there’s some left behind across the fed govt, but he absolutely does not control the military any more.
he didnt then, even. the reason the army turned down his request for troops was they feared he’d order them to fire on americans. they arent afraid of that any more.
there’ll b NO j6 2.0.

[Dennis Donovan]

13. They'll try (and fail), but most of the battles will be in court. And we saw how well they did in 2020

...in the courts. We have even more lawyers this time!

[mopinko]

19. we'll see how many lawyers want to join in that mess.

how many of his lawyers got indicted again?
doj isnt gonna sit on their asses this time, either. they gotta know pink slips will fall come jan.

[bigtree]

8. no

...don't just ignore what happened last night.

We're going to see some amazing numbers going ahead.

[Brainfodder]

15. Didn't inflation err gouging start during TSF reign as greedy corps making up for low or no earns during c19 shutdown?

[Wiz Imp]

16. This is not true. It's a myth.

sure he overperformed national polling averages by a bit in 2016 and 2020, but that was not anywhere close to uniform across the entire country. In addition, Democratic candidates and issues (like ballot initiatives legalizing abortion) have consistently over-performed the polls (often significantly) in every major election since 2020 including the 2022 red wave that wasn't and numerous congressional special elections. Also, Trump under-performed the polls significantly in many Republican primaries this year.

It seems pollsters finally made some adjustments to turnout models and in the recent elections (since 2022) they may actually be more likely to overestimate MAGA support.

[Silent Type]

18. We've got a great team running. While it's possible there are enough hate filled voters to give trump Electoral College,

I think we will win easily. But we need to stomp him in the ground with as many votes as possible.