Rupar: the Dow is crashing close to another all time high today, and rate cuts are coming next week

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Aaron Rupar
the Dow is crashing close to another all time high today, and rate cuts are coming next week

Dark Brandon still on the job!

(On edit: his use of "crashing" is clearly sarcasm, IMO)

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Market is pricing in 50 basis points cut

So if next week the cut is 25 basis points, we could see it drop some.

The Fed looks at all the data, not just CPI. We'll see, but I think it's not close to 50/50 between 25 and 50 basis points cuts.

[Johonny]

16. If the three cuts in 2024 are correct

Then 50 points feels incorrect.

[progree]

29. A 0.5% rate cut is very much on the table, all of a sudden

At the moment, the FedWatch tool says a 49% chance of a 0.50% rate cut and a 51% chance of a 0.25% rate cut
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Stock market today: Stocks rise with jumbo Fed cut back on the table, Yahoo Finance, 9/13/24
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-stocks-rise-with-jumbo-fed-cut-back-on-the-table-133138258.html

The odds of a 0.5% reduction jumped amid reports by the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal that the size of the Fed's Sept. 18 decision will be a close call. Adding to the debate, influential former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said there's a "strong case" for a deeper cut.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury (^TNX) slipped Friday, down 2 basis points at around 3.66%. At the same time, the yield on 2-year notes, seen as sensitive to monetary policy, dropped to just above 3.58%.

As you say, they definitely look at more than the CPI. The PCE inflation index (PCE) is their favorite inflation indicator, particularly the core numbers

Latest inflation numbers and graphs:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3305495
(notice in the short time since that was posted, the sentiment shifed to a roughly 50% and 50% chance of a quarter or half percentage point rate cut respectively).

They also look at the jobs reports and other economic indicators, as their dual mandate includes maximizing employment https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-what-are-its-goals-how-does-it-work.htm
 
Aside: my new bonds and interest rates page https://www.democraticunderground.com/111698737#post4

[rockbluff botanist]

2. Crashing? My accounts are up.

I detest imprecise use of language.

[WarGamer]

3. Another "performative poster" on Twitter...

[evolves]

19. It's satire.

[gab13by13]

4. The DOW is up 277

The thread didn't age well.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Bad Phrasing

I think it would have been wiser for the writer to have said "Edging toward another all-time high".
It's as if he doesn't know what crash means in the financial world.
"Crashing" & "all-time high" don't belong in the sane sentence. Yet, there they are!

[Demobrat]

20. Pretty sure he was joking. I laughed.

[ProfessorGAC]

30. I Now Think That Way

Somebody below brought up that they thought it was sarcasm. I buy that.

[hibbing]

5. Must be excited about soon having a Marxist president ***sarcasm obviously***

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Crashing. What a strange way to describe

a value (as I type this) of 41,399.57, which I think is an all-time high. I don't think the word "crash" correctly describes a market which is steadily climbing.

A few days ago someone (not sure if it was you or someone else) also said the market is crashing. There's a level of misunderstanding to call the current state "crashing".

[Dennis Donovan]

7. I took it as sarcasm. n/t

[ProfessorGAC]

10. That Could Be, DD

I hadn't considered that. I considered it awkward phrasing, but you may be right, as Rs keep wishing for a crash so they can claim only TFG can save the day.

[Abolishinist]

14. Same here, especially so as he included 'Dark Brandon'

[Random Boomer]

28. It's called sarcasm

I thought it was pretty obvious, but apparently not.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

32. I did not take it as sarcasm.

Nor did i take the post a few days ago talking about a crash as sarcasm. I honestly think that those posting these haven't a clue what is happening in the stock market. And really, really, haven't any clue what a "crash" is.

[progree]

34. The Dow all-time closing high was 41,563 on 8/30/24 with intraday high of 41,585

Last edited Sat Sep 14, 2024, 12:19 PM - Edit history (1)

a value (as I type this) of 41,399.57, which I think is an all-time high.

There's an easy way to find out. Myself I go to https://finance.yahoo.com and at the top are a lot of financial markets tickers including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq --

Dow: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/

(I check out the chart and then click on Historic Data to confirm).

I just don't see how one can look at the OP and think it's not sarcasm.

Because some message board rando at DU *MIGHT* think the market was crashing a few days ago (I'd love to see a link to that, I acknowledge it could very well have happened), does not mean that everyone thinks that way, not when they show a triumphant Dark Brandon picture and write "the Dow is crashing close to another all time high today, and rate cuts are coming next week" (emphasis mine).

A few days ago someone (not sure if it was you or someone else) also said the market is crashing

Edited to add Somebody in this thread pointed out that on Wednesday, 9/11, the Dow did fall 700 points at the outset, and someone may have concluded that "the market is crashing", there is certainly lots of that kind of hyperbole around here. (Putting it in perspective, a 700 point drop is about a 1.7% drop, hardly a "Black Wednesday" history-making plunge) /END EDIT

Aaron Rupar is a long time independent journalist with progressive leanings. https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaron-rupar-0b560715/ . He's not just some Twitter rando, and I see no evidence that he's an obtuse ring-ring-ring-a-ding-dong.

I do acknowledge that unfortunately on DU there are plenty who think the economy is the worst it has been in generations, that we're really in a recession or that think a recession and a market crash are about to happen any day now, and that inflation is sky-high (I saw a post yesterday where someone complained of $5 a QUART for milk, it happens, sigh.

(my last milk purchase in Minneapolis was $2.99 a GALLON on September 3, which comes to 75 cents/quart but then I suppose that I benefited from a "high volume bulk purchase" that only fancy-pants elitists can afford to make, LOL ).

[lpbk2713]

9. I just looked at the DJIA. It made a stunning recovery.

It's at +295 as of 30 seconds ago.

[Charmin One]

11. Goody! Eom

[Bongo Prophet]

12. Hilarious post because almost all responders missed the most obvious sarcasm possible

"I hate the imprecise use of language."
My first post to read upon awakening, too.

Thanks for the laughs. More coffee at this table please.

[gab13by13]

13. Not really, the market was down 700 earlier in the day,

[onenote]

22. No it wasn't Where do get your information? You should delete.

Last edited Sat Sep 14, 2024, 09:16 AM - Edit history (1)

The Dow closed yesterday at 41,153. It opened today at 41,200 and has not been below that number at any point, let alone down 700.

You really should delete your post, which I assume was not meant as intentional misinformation.

[whopis01]

33. I believe they were referring to Wednesday

When the Dow did drop nearly 700 points from the opening before rebounding later in the day.

[progree]

31. The Dow opened 56 higher than yesterday's close, and went up from there and then leveled

off at around 250 above yesterday's close. It never went negative.

Graph and the day's DOW stats at
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/

[Kingofalldems]

17. Trump is crashing.

[Oopsie Daisy]

18. Crashing? (Maybe "cruising" or "crushing" ... but "crashing" doesn't seem to fit.)

[Demobrat]

21. The market is crashing.

Sarcastic tone of voice: yes, it’s crashing near all time highs.

Maybe it’s just us sarcastic ones who got a laugh out of it. Maybe we should form a club!

[Dennis Donovan]

24. I live for sarcasm, so I got it immediately...

The Dark Brandon meme also was a clue to the tone of the tweet. Some people don't do sarcasm - not their fault. It's something you have to acquire and sometimes it's not obvious.

[onenote]

23. Really surprised that so few commenters caught the rather obvious sarcasm in the use of "crashing"

I guess folks have short memories and don't recall that Trump was referring to a "Kamala Crash" a few weeks ago.

[MMBeilis]

25. OMG, OMG, OMG !!! The Dow plunged today up 278 points !!! I think it was funny.

[raging moderate]

26. Yes, the Dow is crashing through the ceiling!

Or would that be the Dome?

[MMBeilis]

35. Also pretty funny.

[Joinfortmill]

27. Gave me a bit of a start there for a moment