Interpreting Polls from Red Areas

[Pototan]

I follow the polls very closely. Recently, some interesting polls have reported. Kamala Harris has reduced Trump margins in red states and districts. Coming within the margin of error

Alaska is mostly a white, rural state. So is Iowa and the first district in Maine. These are not your typical Democratic bastions. Add to that that New Hampshire, another white mostly rural state, has gone from purple to reliable (albeit not guaranteed) blue.

This is West, Mid-West and East. No, I'm not saying she'll win any of these states, except New Hampshire, but they are approaching "in play" status. If Harris is making inroads into this type of demographic it may show up in areas in other states, especially the swing states.

I thought I'd post my thoughts on this as it may be an unexpected encouraging sign.

[displacedvermoter]

1. Don't go getting optimistic on us!🤓

You could be accused of suppressing GOTV efforts.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. +100

Enthusiasm and optimism is good! It's what builds momentum and makes some people work harder. It's been all hands on deck for a while and will contyonue to be through the election.

What cracks me up is that every thread with a good poll for Harris has the same 5 or 6 posters crapping on it without fail. 'It's within the margin of error!" "It's not a legit poll!" "this polls methods are questionable!" Polls are data points, some more valid than others, but right now the polls have Harris winning.

[displacedvermoter]

4. Simon Rosenberg concurs with you!

Well founded optimism fuels enthusiasm, drives people to work harder, spurs people to invest in a winning cause (i.e. donate a few bucks more) and vote with confidence.

[PCIntern]

8. Thank you for posting that...

That tack you’re satirizing has bugged me for twenty years here.

[Omnipresent]

2. Good to hear!

[hatrack]

5. Iowa polling in June showed Trump +18 over Biden

More recent polling (last week, IIRC) of likely voters showed Trump +4 over Harris.

Hardly definitive, but hardly discouraging.

[Pototan]

7. My point is if

we see that same type of movement in the rural, white areas of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and the 2nd district in Nebraska, we should be OK.

[hatrack]

9. Oh, yeah - it's a big "if", but you're not wrong.

[kansasobama]

11. It is not evident

In swing states yet

[Midnight Writer]

6. I'm in a deep red area, and my observation is that enthusiasm for DJT is waning.

For years, certain neighbors would not stop gushing over Trump.

Now, those same neighbors want to talk about the weather, about sports, about neighborhood gossip.

They do not want to talk about their crazy candidates.

Oh, and yard signs for Trump have dwindled drastically. Some of these homes looked like roadside fireworks stands with all the signage in their yards. Not seeing much of that this year.

[kansasobama]

10. True but does not matter as much

It is unsure if it is translating to swing states of Michigan, PA, NC, GA, and AZ. Celinda Lake said we are unsure if that is happening. If polls from PA or MI show a 6 point lead, then I would say it matters.