Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on 'Landslide' Harris Win

[babylonsister]

Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on ‘Landslide’ Harris Win
by Carl Gibson | September 19, 2024 - 6:40am

— from Alternet


Data scientist Thomas Miller of Northwestern University correctly predicted the 2020 Electoral College map, with the exception of Georgia. He also accurately forecasted Georgia's two Democratic U.S. senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, defeating then-incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.

Now, he's anticipating that Vice President Kamala Harris will not only defeat former President Donald Trump in November, but will do so by a significant margin. Fortune reported that Miller is predicting that Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or President Bill Clinton's 1996 victory over Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kansas), in which he secured 379 electoral votes.

"It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," Miller said of his forecasting model

.

Even prior to the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden — which was widely viewed as the catalyst for Biden's eventual exit from the 2024 race — Miller's metrics predicted a staggering defeat for Biden. He forecasted that Trump could win as many as 400 Electoral College votes prior to Biden's disastrous debate performance, which went as high as nearly 500 electoral votes.

But after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris — prompting a surge of excitement from the Democratic base and hundreds of millions of dollars in new fundraising — the odds flipped in the vice president's favor in just a few weeks. Despite Trump catching up to Harris in the wake of the Democratic National Convention and getting back into a virtual tie with the vice president, Harris blew past him once again after last week's debate, which was viewed by 67 million Americans.

"Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes," Fortune's Shawn Tully wrote. "The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained [her] 400-plus vote total."

more...
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/carl-gibson/111600/data-scientist-who-correctly-predicted-2020-election-now-betting-on-landslide-harris-win

[bullimiami]

1. Aren't there a lot of blowing past and huge swings in this model?

That makes no sense whatsoever.

[yardwork]

4. I noticed a tone of breathless hyperbole throughout.

I'm glad the model seems to have wildly swing our way, but if it wildly swings another way tomorrow, I'm not going to worry.

[jcgoldie]

27. thats what i was thinking

Tune in next week when it will predict something completely different.

[GreenWave]

2. Calls for a song

[BoRaGard]

3. Americans don't want no stinking, lying kristofascist republican-russian a-holes

running the show.

It's that simple.

[KS Toronado]

8. It's a real shame all Americans don't see him as a Putin employee.

[meow2u3]

34. Americans would see him as a Putin asset if the conservative press didn't put their thumb on the scale for him

If the press had been honest instead of biased far to the right, we never would have had Trump even as a candidate, let alone President in 2016.

[KS Toronado]

41. So very true!

[Freddie]

5. Women will win this for Kamala

We are ANGRY and the 2 deaths in Georgia should be front page news everywhere!

[rzemanfl]

11. Two is only the tip of the iceberg. n/t

[mahatmakanejeeves]

33. In that case I can stay home. NT

[Quiet Em]

59. I certainly hope you won't stay home.

Please vote.

[PatSeg]

6. I'm no data scientist,

but I've been predicting a major landslide for awhile now. Trump and his idiot VP pick keep making major blunders as if they're trying to lose.

[rzemanfl]

10. +1. n/t

[erronis]

32. It's like the putin puppets don't even care about no stinking election....

[PatSeg]

69. Ha, ha, ha!!!

At least they're putting on a show for the mainstream media!

[FakeNoose]

35. Me too - since the beginning of the year I've said it's a "Blue Tsunami"

I haven't actually called it a "landslide" but I do believe this will be a definitive and historic win for the Democrats.

Even more importantly, it will be the final end to Chump's miserable career as failed politician.

[Wednesdays]

44. "...it will be the final end to Chump's miserable career as failed politician..."

I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

Mark my words: the moment the 2024 election is called for Harris, Trump will be gearing up for '28.

[FakeNoose]

45. He'll lose most of his followers after November

[PatSeg]

70. Oh yes, a very final end

Trump has been like that monster in a horror film that keeps coming back to life, but I believe we are finally seeing the end to that movie.

I've been waiting for that "historic and definitive win for Democrats" ever since Bush and this time, I believe we're finally going to see it.

Love that gif!!!!

[LiberalFighter]

65. I agree. Everyone needs to vote for it to happen.

[mwb970]

7. trump will claim that he won, regardless of the size of Kamala's victory.

The easiest prediction in the history of predictions.

[ihaveaquestion]

9. I like that he's using betting trends to base his data model.

I've heard that the betting sites could provide more accurate predictions than the polls, but wasn't sure how to find out about them.

Miller based his model around betting trends on PredictIt, which is the largest betting market for U.S. politics. Tully explained that Miller "took the Predictit odds in the 56 individual voting jurisdictions, tracked the hourly changes, and used his proprietary model to roll the data into daily odds." Miller said he viewed PredictIt as more accurate than traditional polling, which uses a much smaller sample and is typically a week behind current trends.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

12. Wall Street doesn't just see a Hillary win, it sees a landslide

Elections
Wall Street doesn’t just see a Hillary win, it sees a landslide

Published Mon, Aug 29 2016 • 1:59 PM EDT | Updated Mon, Aug 29 2016 • 3:12 PM EDT
Patti Domm
@in/patti-domm-9224884/
@pattidomm


Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton celebrates on stage during her primary night event at the Duggal Greenhouse, Brooklyn Navy Yard, June 7, 2016 in New York.
Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Images

Wall Street is pricing in a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, but if she starts to lag, there could be a big unwinding of stock and bond market positions, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s David Woo.

Woo said the market is also pricing in a split Congress, with Republicans controlling the House and Democrats the Senate. That would maintain the deadlock in Washington.

“You have a Democrat president, and a Republican controlled Congress which means you have gridlock in Washington. The market is pricing in this gridlock, meaning it’s going to be that much of the burden of supporting the economy falls on the Fed,” said Woo, head of global interest rates and foreign exchange strategy. That makes it harder to get agreement on changes in tax policy or for fiscal spending that could help the economy.

{snip}

[JohnSJ]

21. Some keep bringing up Hillary while conveniently ignoring what Comey did. Without a doubt Hillary would have won in

2016 if 11 days before the election Comey hadn't sent a letter to the republicans in Congress, and the media FALSELY reporting that the email investigation was reopened, and for the next seven days parading every right wing pundit across their outlets pushing that lie. Then late Friday, the weekend before the general election Comey quietly coming out and saying there was no new information to reopen the email investigation.

Hillary was ahead by 4-5 points before Comey's violation of the Hatch Act, and after Comey's garbage, that 4-5 point lead was completely erased. It isn't rocket science what happened, and those who leave that detail to demonstrate the accuracy of the polls or predictions, are not representing the true picture on what happen.

That being said, the prediction of this person for a landslide victory for VP Harris is highly unlikely, just based on the demographics of the red states alone.

It will be a very close election. The only thing that might make it better would be if the pollsters were under polling pro-choice women, and young people turnout.

It will be close and very nerve wracking.

[Trueblue Texan]

24. And they keep ignoring what we now know about TFG, but didn't know then. nt

[groundloop]

22. Groundloop in 2016: "No way in hell is tRump beating Hillary" (to be honest she had 3 MILLION more votes, HOWEVER....)

That pesky weight around the neck of America called the electoral college had a different idea.

[Omnipresent]

13. That's enough bad news to give Dumpster fire a stroke.

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

14. 379 sounds just about right to me.

[Tribetime]

15. That would mean all Biden's States plus

North Carolina, Florida, and Texas

[lindysalsagal]

56. That would mean Obama's states plus..

And I believe it. Women are PISSED!!!!!!!!

[TBF]

63. I would love to see Texas blue but I'm skeptical -

I know these people and they are very quiet right now. I predict they vote party rather than cross over. They don't love Trump, but they believe he is moving things in their direction (in terms of their Christian "values" ). I really hope I'm wrong, but I think it will be baby steps to get Texas to blue (and a lot of dinosaurs dying off, and folks eventually moving away from churches, etc). My hope this time is that it's closer and we get rid of someone like Ted Cruz. If we could just accomplish that I'd be so happy!

[Tribetime]

64. If florida and or texas go blue i'm drinking a double shot

[TBF]

68. I'll absolutely join you in that! nt

[Clouds Passing]

16. Don't believe that landslide stuff, encourage everyone to vote!!!!

[PCIntern]

66. Jeez...

Thank you. I almost forgot I had to vote.

[Clouds Passing]

71. Just a friendly reminder

[viva la]

17. Let's take comfort but not get cocky.

Remember what happened in 2016.
October Surprise.

"Responsible moderates" like James Comey can often decide to "go the extra mile to be fair" and get very political by trying superhard not to get political.
Merrick Garland comes to mind....

[rainin]

18. These predictions only work with trump as the candidate. I can't be the only one who's worried that these assa**ination

attempts might be intended to thrust vance to the top of the ticket. There's zero chance IMO that a democrat would be behind these, but a non-zero chance, IMO, that trump's either behind this himself so he can look like a hero or alternatively, vance is turning out to look like the only viable candidate to someone powerful enough to orchestrate a trump assa**ination. I hope nothing happens to him. Republicans who are voting for Harris might switch support to Vance in a heartbeat.

[FakeNoose]

36. Not a chance

Every R voter who sees through Chump - refuses to vote for him - can also see through Vance.

There are an incredible number of R's who are refusing to vote for Chump. That's where the media is completely blind, and they keep on calling this a "horse race." It was never a horse race, even when Joe Biden was the D candidate.

[onenote]

42. If you're not the only one worried that the repubs are plotting to remove Trump you should be

Because it's a ridiculous notion.

[rainin]

55. Really? You're so confident that you'll call my concern "ridiculous". You must have an inside scoop.

Why don't you tell us all exactly what will happen in the future, since you're so certain of everyone's intentions, including all republicans?

[onenote]

57. I'll tell you what won't happen: Trump won't be assassinated by folks who want him replaced by Vance.

Care to make a wager?

[rainin]

60. My interest in engaging with you is minimal. I don't usually engage with people who talk in absolutes

and believe in certainties, especially their own certainty. I'd rather interact with people who respect the POV of others, especially when there are players potentially unknown to us both.

You're welcome to continue believing you know what will happen. It doesn't matter to me.

[Botany]

19. Amber Nicole Thurman and her son are going along as the American people vote this fall.

,AMBER NICOLE THURMAN and her son are going along with 10s of millions of women
and all the people who love ‘em too as they vote starting next month. And they are going
to be there in national, state, and local elections. No forgiveness for that planned cruelty by
those Christo Facsist bastards.

Btw Americans support Freedom of Religion but Freedom of Religion also means Freedom
from Religion too..

[JohnSJ]

20. With the republican candidate like trump it should be like the LBJ/goldwater election, but unless pro-choice

women and young people are being significantly under polled, it isn't going to happen. It would completely delegitimize the pollsters.

[rogerballard]

23. What about Allan Lichtman?

This year's presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most polarizing in American history, and many are wondering which candidate will become the next president.

Election predictions are difficult in battleground states like Arizona. But Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the past 10 presidential elections, has confirmed his prediction on which candidate will reclaim the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.



https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/17/historian-has-correctly-guessed-9-of-past-10-elections-who-will-win/75250684007/

[COL Mustard]

25. I hate to keep sounding like Debbie Downer

But these polls mean nothing without turnout!!!

[Trueblue Texan]

26. This is nice to hear, but we still have to work our asses off to make it happen.

BTW, if you have donated all you can, but want to do more, call your local party and ask if you can help with postcards or distributing signs, or phone banking...better yet, get on your party's website and see what volunteer positions they have available. There is more work to do and it gives us something to do with our anxiety about the upcoming election. We may as well put that energy to good use.

[tsSleepyTimeDwnSout]

28. forgive the ocd

but i was once a professional proofreader for several national newspapers (moved a lot in those days). it's been sad to see american publishers abandon quality (live humans) for profit ("spellcheckers&quot .

if i'm not mistaken, the past tense of " forecast" is "forecast".

and btw, the past tense of "to lead" is "led", which seems to have been abandoned in favor of "lead" .

maybe im being pedantic. or maybe the dumbing down of americans for profit is not a good trend.

[tsSleepyTimeDwnSout]

30. on that theme

it appears closing a phrase here with quotation marks and a parenthesis results in &quote smileyface.

i dont pretend to understand the mechanics, i just don't like it when the machine wins. 😏

[mahatmakanejeeves]

61. Put a space between them. NT

[tsSleepyTimeDwnSout]

62. thx!

kraaazy username u got there. i like it.

[FakeNoose]

37. Yep - proofreading is bad on the printed news sheets ... but even worse on the news websites

Nobody takes the time to check anything these days.

And don't get me started on the "closed captions" errors ....

(sigh)

[Renew Deal]

29. 400+ means winning Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and probably Texas

[dsc]

31. Biden got 306

and under this map his win would have been 302. Give Kamala this and NC she gets to 318. Biden got this with a 4.5% margin in the popular vote. The next closest state is FL at 3% so she would need to be at 7.5% to get that. Texas is next at 6% so she would need a 10.5% win to get that. She isn't winning by 10.5%. Sorry not gonna happen.

[Wednesdays]

38. It could happen if we GOTV.

I don't think we'll be getting 400 electoral votes, but 367 is possible if everything goes right.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

39. I want to wake up on November 6th to a totally blue map.

When Reagan ran against McGovern the map was nearly 100% red. McGovern only carried his home state.

We already know what Cheeto and the Repugs are going to do. 2020 was a rehearsal. Hell, the only thing missing on Jan 6 were pitchforks and Tiki torches. We don't need a landslide. We need a Death Star to wipe this evil (TFG and the MAGA GQP) out existence.

We have to keep working. As Yogi Berra so eloquently stated, "It's not over 'til it's over."

[a kennedy]

48. Yah, this takes me back to going to bed with Hillary winning, and then waking up

to the worlds biggest nightmare come true. 🤬 🤬 🤬

[sarisataka]

50. When did Regan run against McGovern?

[andym]

52. Reagan beat Mondale in 1984, Nixon beat McGovern in 1972

Both times the maps were mostly red. Mondale won his home state and DC, McGovern won Massachusetts and DC.
Back then, there was less polarization in the middle which meant that there was a greater percentage of swing voters in more states who could really push the outcome toward one candidate or another.

[Botany]

40. Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater

[babylonsister]

43. Holy moly! That's a lot of blue! nt

[sarisataka]

51. Why stop there?

If we want to indulge in fantasy, just make the entire map blue.

In the real world, the 2024 map will not look anything like that.

[struggle4progress]

46. Looking for a proven way to snatch Defeat from the jaws of Victory? Try OverConfidence!

[sarisataka]

47. The closer we get to the election

the more 2016 cockiness is surfacing.

[a kennedy]

49. As I've mentioned before......I just want a crushing so there is NO doubt she won.

[bucolic_frolic]

53. This is our chance to make up for lost time

We'd better not blow it.

[KPN]

54. Would that it be so. nt

[Jose Garcia]

58. I also predicted Biden winning in 2020

The electorate is just too polarized for any candidate to win by a landslide.

[LudwigPastorius]

67. This guy is using PredictIt, a betting site, as the data basis for his modeling?

Well that sounds scientific as fuck.