Why I Think Donald Trump Is Certain to Lose This Election.

[MineralMan]

He has stopped trying to speak to anyone but his core group of supporters. He no longer cares whether people vote for him.

One by one, he is alienating groups of people. Women, Jewish people, minorities of all types. Everyone, really. In his X tweets, on his failing personal social media channel, and elsewhere, he is simply winging things at this point.

He has dismantled any pretense of local GOTV efforts, to save money that he can divert to his own use. He chose the weakest possible VP candidate to run with him. If anything, Vance is making matters worse, sometimes going beyond Trump in alienating groups.

He is doubling down on every stupid thing he says.

He may think he has some sort of after-election force that is going to shift him from being a loser to the winner, using illegal strategies. But, he is not President, as he was in 2020. He cannot stand back and watch a crowd invade the Capitol on January 6. There will be no such invasion or insurrection, with Biden in the White House.

He has idiots as attorneys. As we saw in 2020, he files suits in federal courts that are so far off the mark that they do not even get heard, despite conservative judges on the bench. Those cases simply get tossed for lack of ANY evidence. Even in 2020. That's not going to change.

He is out of money, out of opportunities and, frankly, out of his fucking mind.

We need to be vigilant. We need to continue GOTV efforts. But Trump will not help himself to regain the White House. He is far beyond any place where he can stand to do such a thing. He is probably a flight risk, and may disappear from view the day after the election. Where will he go? Damned if I know.

And those are the reasons why I believe the next POTUS is going to be Kamala Harris. Watch and you'll see!

[Quiet Em]

1. He knows he's going to lose, too

His entire plan is to just claim it was rigged and his cult and many rightwingers will whine about it for years.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

25. At least if he's in prison, his shitehose will become a shitenugget trickle

[DownriverDem]

83. Not in prison

I can see him under house arrest.

[speak easy]

92. 'I can see him under house arrest.'

With no phone, internet, or golf.

[calimary]

170. It'd have to be that.

Home confinement of the serious kind. Absolutely NO phone, internet, OR golf. What could be taken away from him as a well-deserved penalty? The ability to speak out verbally or online, to influence people. House arrest with NO ability to interface with the public. But frankly, I'd still rather see him in JAIL with NO phone, OR media involvement or coverage. That, at least, would leave a mark.

[speak easy]

171. With visiting rights mirroring prison.

No walking around meeting and greeting,

[speak easy]

172. I'd be worried that that MAGA would make him a martyr

if he died in jail, with endless conspiracy theories that President Harris / the AG / FBI / CIA etc murdered him.

Hole him up in Mar-a-Lago with very limited ability to talk to anyone. ever.

[BonnieJW]

123. But

Wherever he is, he'll still be directing Republicans and they'll do whatever he says

[jbandsma]

174. Don't count on it

He may know he's going to lose in the election, but he has SCOTUS set up to fix that. As they have done before.

[Quiet Em]

175. It won't be close enough for SCOTUS to try that.

.

[dalton99a]

2. He is only thinking of revenge and chaos - "Apres moi, le deluge"

[dickthegrouch]

3. He did the same thing in 2016

And “won”. 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬

[MineralMan]

8. And then lost in 2020 as the incumbent!

[Keepthesoulalive]

10. He wasn't running against Kamala

She is on fire and kicking his behind.

[Sugarcoated]

38. That doesn't give him some kind of superpower

Just because he squeaked out a win 8 years ago

[Beartracks]

53. TRUMP 2016: Technical Winner. Actual Loser.

[kiri]

102. Comey did it in 2016

Don't forget how Comey deliberately threw the election against Hillary.

[Justice matters.]

137. And Pecker.

Front page lies with no rebuttals (Hillary was very busy contesting Bernie).

[FrankBooth]

57. Arguably the biggest fluke election in US history

He got extremely lucky to win in 2016, and even he didn't think he would. And he's gotten his ass kicked in 3 straight election cycles since. Plus, 2016 and 2024 are very, very different election cycles.

[CrispyQ]

152. This! The first time was a fluke & he's been a loser since.

Where's the poll, "On a scale of 1 to 10, how sick are you of Donald J Trump?" 100. That's how sick of him I am. One fucking hundred.

This election is way more like 2008 than 2016. My wish is that we know the winner before we go to bed that night & shut down his moronic "because so many votes came in after midnight it means the election was stolen" bullshit.

[W_HAMILTON]

64. He still had people buying into the image as some self-made billionaire...

...not to mention unprecedented Russian interference in our elections, Comey's ratfucking, a decades-long conservative smear campaign against Hillary, and even with all of that, if the election had been run again the very next day, he most likely would have lost because a lot of people thought there was no chance he would win to begin with and thus stayed at home and/or cast protest votes.

All that's out the door now. He fooled just enough people the first time around, but he obviously didn't fool enough in 2020 and he damn sure isn't going to fool enough this time around with his same tired old schtick.

[C Moon]

108. I know people who voted for him in 2016

because they felt he had a new message.
Those people aren’t the least bit impressed with him anymore.

Thank god.

[Trueblue Texan]

147. I'm curious when I see people warn about 2016 outcome.

I do not mean to discount the fact that ALL of us have to work as hard as we can to defeat TFG, but what about THIS year’s election do you see that is similar to 2016, apart from one of the candidates being TFG?

[Trueblue Texan]

146. Removed by poster

[Demsrule86]

169. 2016 had a brutal primary...not te same.

[NewJeffCT]

179. sadly, this is true... but

his venues were a lot bigger in 2016 - today, he's at a 2500 seat arena in Savannah, GA and on Saturday, he'll be at a high school auditorium in Wisconsin, seating capacity, 700. Most of his arenas were 10-20K seating capacity places in 2016, if I recall. I think his rallies were a lot more frequent the last few months of the campaign in 2016 as well.

That said, the media seems to be in the tank for Trump - the NY Times just brought on another right-wing columnist, for example. (Devlin Barrett?, I think it's spelled) and Harris/Walz often receive very little coverage on the news. ABC did only a minimal amount of Trump fact checking in the debate against Harris, despite his voluminous amount of lies; and they gave him 5 minutes more speaking time and he had the last word on every single topic. So, if something comes up negative at the last minute (Comey in 2016), it could have a huge impact - in 2016, late deciders broke big for Trump because of the email BS.

[Orrex]

4. Maybe he'll just fucking die already

In some spectacularly humiliating and very public fashion.

I’d feel just terrible for as long as I can fight down the urge to dance in the streets.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

80. He needs to be humiliated at the polls. Imprisoned. And then he can die all he wants.

[Orrex]

120. Humiliated at the polls, ok. But I'm not holding my breath for his prison time.

[oldsoftie]

157. Yes. He's NOT going to jail win or lose in Nov.

I'd prefer to see his businesses continue to fall apart & see his "billionaire" status disappear. THAT is worse than prison to him. And if he did go to jail he'd just be a martyr
His entire identity is tied to his businesses.

[kiri]

109. will the traitor lie in state?

When he dies, it will create a great headache for Biden/Harris. Should he lie in state? It will be awful to see him so honored. But Biden respects tradition.

He will not get military honors. But I'll be damned if I put my flag at half-staff!

[Conjuay]

110. Fly a Russian flag at half staff.

[not fooled]

124. Perhaps he will be...elsewhere

not in the U.S. Somewhere without an extradition treaty with the U.S.?

[HariSeldon]

125. So hard for him, though...

...as a convicted felon, his foreign travel is somewhat restricted.

[FakeNoose]

128. He would only go to an English-speaking country, that's my thought

He would only go somewhere with warm weather and lots of golf courses. Hopefully run by a dictator or some kind of fascist, but why would any place like that want Chump living there?

He already knows he can't move to Australia, New Zealand, UK, Scotland, Ireland, or really anywhere in Europe, certainly not Canada. He'd never go to Africa or Asia, and I can't see him going to the Middle East either. He might be accepted in South America, but he'd hate it there. His choices are mighty slim at this point.

[3catwoman3]

111. My fantasy for his demise is that he be struck by lightning on one of his golf courses.

If he dies unattended/unobserved somewhere, you just know that the MAGATs will accuse Democrats of having done him in by poisoning him or by some other nefarious act.

[BidenRocks]

121. Caddyshack! Nt

[ShazzieB]

163. He's welcome to die by any means other than assassination.

Political violence of any kind would not be a victory for anyon,, as far as I'm concerned. But if he were to stroke out or die of a massive heart attack, I would feel only relief.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

5. Yes, I believe it's not going to be as close as many think

I think Kamala will win by a large margin that will surprise many. Won't be the first time pundits were wrong.

[Magoo48]

42. I think most "pundits " are wrong, because they are deeply invested in the status quo of the diseased MSM.

[Trueblue Texan]

44. I believe this, as well, but every one is still working their asses off ...

…to make sure it happens. But we also have to get Jon Testor and Sherrod Brown over the line and get Colin Allred in there to get the job done.

[Blue_Roses]

139. Yes, this!

Texas needs to get Ted Cruz outta here!

[Ocelot II]

6. He might not care if he actually loses if he thinks GOP operatives will fix enough elections

in the swing states.

[MineralMan]

9. I truly don't think that is going to happen, though.

[TwilightZone]

16. All of which failed in 2020.

Including 60 court cases.

I think his projected overconfidence re: fixing the election is just blather on his part. I think the entire strategy at this point is to get his base to the polls, and everything he does is in pursuit of that goal.

It's basically what he did toward the end in 2016, and with the electoral college, turnout in the swing states is all that matters.

[EarthAbides]

26. That is the plan

He already has Georgia and Nebraska...

[lees1975]

134. Neither of those proposals will fly.

I doubt if they will last long enough to even make it to a courtroom. They'll be voted down or not approved by the appropriate authority.

[Iwasthere]

153. Wasn't Georgia'salready approved?

[drray23]

60. not really possible.

We (democrats) control the governorship and sec of state in most of the swing states this time around. Even in Georgia where we do not, they are pushing back against attempted shenanigans. Joe Biden is the president so we got the federal side of things covered. For example, he wont let insurrectionists attempt to storm congress without stopping it like Trump did in 2020.

[MadameButterfly]

129. good to know, but state board of election Republicans can refuse to certify

in Michigan, and I think some other battleground states. If new rules aren't challenged and changed in Georgia, it is lost to us.

Trump doesn't have to win. He just has to make sure enough states don't certify so that no one gets the required number of electors. Then it goes to the House, and though Dems will likely have a majority there we probably wont have a majority of the states.

If they can pull this off they won't need a mob.

[drray23]

130. No it does not go to the house.

Only in case of a tie. If a state does not deliver any electors, the number to win goes below 270. For example, if Georgia 16 electoral votes aren't counted, the new number to win is 270-16/2= 262.
It's even easier for Kamala Harris to hit a lower number than for Trump.

[MadameButterfly]

131. Good news again and you seem to know your stuff but

a guest on MSNBC was claiming the winner still had to get 270.

If your version is correct, then we can probably lose Georgia, but not Michigan.

Michigan might be making it illegal to not certify--as you said, controlled by Dems. And I still hold out hope that Georgia will get fixed. Too many Republicans upset there, the people making these laws should be removed, if not arrested. just hoping the slow wheels of justice can do it in time, and SCOTUS doesn't weigh in.

Thanks for setting me straight. It's scary enough without making the rules worse than they are.

[kkkkkk]

177. Georgia hand count is a diversion

Part of Fanny Willis lawsuit includes the republican's theft of the voting software that can't be audited so if there is shenanigans it will be in the software

[MadameButterfly]

180. At present they won't be using any software

or finishing any vote counts so it seems more than a diversion unless they overturn it.
Fanny's case wont happen in time so are you saying they'll steal Georgia (with voting machine count) because we can't audit the software?

[madaboutharry]

7. "He is out of money, out of opportunities and, frankly, out of his fucking mind."

That should get printed on tee shirts, coffee mugs, and bumper stickers.

[Alwayshopefull]

168. Alwayshopefull

Def mind will be so far gone his handlers will keep him hidden,

[mucifer]

11. he's tapped into hateful young white male

that before wasn’t voting. Hopefully they won’t vote or there aren’t many of them. I don’t know but there are internet influencers who are bowing paid to get the racist young who’re male vote.

[Elessar Zappa]

40. Young white males aren't going to swing the election.

And anyway, we have young white men on our side too. Also, Gen Z women are the most liberal group in history and they have a higher turnout than young males.

[MineralMan]

78. Taylor Swift's Army of Young Women.

Don't discount them for a minute.

[emulatorloo]

127. Yes. And her original fans are now in their 30's too. I've seen some claim here that her fans are

“too young to vote.” She has tons of fans who will vote.

[Blue_Roses]

140. She sure does!

People are stupid if they underestimate the Swift influence and how powerful they are.

Not all of them are under the voting age. Her new music is not just geared to young fans either.

[rzemanfl]

12. Crowd, not crown.

I agree.

He may try to bargain a deal on his criminal charges in exchange for conceding the election. It's all about him.

[MineralMan]

14. Good catch. Fixed.

Thanks!

[rzemanfl]

18. I am no fan of predictive.

[MineralMan]

21. LOL!

[NCDem47]

13. Tin foil hat:

Unless he knows something is at play on election day or after. Not even trying to campaign at this point. He's too lazy and exhausted for that. Really only doing the bare minimum to keep 1/3 of the country riled up.

I think election day to inauguration is going to be a stomach churning time, even though Kamala will come out victorious.

[multigraincracker]

39. I heard they are already starting to reinforce

the security around the inauguration site.

[Iwasthere]

154. I hope so

We have tickets. I was at both of Obamas historic Innaugurations, not going to miss this one.

[wiggs]

15. Certainly, he SHOULD lose this election and it's looking bad for him. When asked about campaign

troubles and polling a few weeks ago, he said he 'has an ace up his sleeve.' Mostly likely BS while he continues to fleece his flock but one can also believe he will try any underhanded tactic he and his enablers can think up.

[SCantiGOP]

17. The two or three days before the election will be awful

Expect AI and photoshops ‘proving’ that Harris is an Iranian/Chinese/Russian agent, had 5 abortions, got away with a murder and is likely a cannibal.
He will be a pathetic, but dangerous, wounded animal as he heads towards a big defeat. I just hope he can drag the House and maybe several Senators down with him.

[Ocelot II]

34. I expect some awful days right after the election, too.

The four days after the 2020 election, until Saturday, when the final count was in, were ulcer-inducing. I hope we don't have a reprise of that, though the GOP's fuckery in GA could do it.

[PortTack]

19. I don't think he's out of money. It appears so on the surface, but he no doubt has lots of dark money donors

As far as what he thinks about winning or losing, he is so caught up in the narcissistic narrative that runs in his head any rationale thought is over powered

[Tarc]

20. Trump is back to his Summer of 2016 mode,

Wasn't expecting to actually win, just planned on constructing a Perpetual Grievance Engine. Daily disinformation flowing out, donations from poor rural rubes coming in.

[MineralMan]

24. Could be. However, he is pulling no punches,

nor is he sparing any groups from his mindless attacks. He's going far beyond the offensive rhetoric he used in 2016.

For some reason, he appears to think he is invincible. His narcissism has exploded.

[calimary]

135. All the more reason to make sure he's NOT invincible!

[captain queeg]

22. He will certainly try to disrupt the election but he failed last time as the incumbent

And he probably had a more wide spread following back then. I don’t think he’ll get a lot of people in positions of power to play along again. They see that though justice moves
very slowly it’s coming for them. And he’s bat shit crazy, are you going to bet your life, freedom and position on someone like him.

I believe if he managed to get a similar response to 2020 there will be some powerful people on the sidelines that might jump in if they saw a great enough opportunity but it ain’t going to happen. One more kudos to Joe, he’ll be there and in power to defend the country.

[MineralMan]

28. Exactly. He has lost the power of the incumbency.

What happened on January 6, 2021 cannot occur again. Not with Joe Biden sitting in the White House. No doubt, preparations are already underway for any possible outrage on that date in 2025. Joe Biden is not the candidate, and so is relieved of all reasons to act in any way but the good of the nation.

He also does not have an Attorney General willing to sabotage things for him.

It is a different situation altogether.

[AnotherMother4Peace]

23. Kamala broke this demented, drug addled, obese 78 yr old man. He thought he was running against Biden & can't pivot.

He doesn't understand what to do - he's broken. His twitter post this morning about how he's going to make all the sad women happy again, & they won't be thinking about abortions, says it all - https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219487882

And now Taylor Swift has broken him. He's still trying to live in his narcissist past, but has no idea what to do. His fantasies about himself are his and his alone. He's so much like Capt. Queeg and the "ah the strawberries, that's where I had them" scene.

[MineralMan]

29. Well said.

That a young pop singer has bested him is sort of the ultimate insult to his already diminished "manhood." I love that.

[PJMcK]

141. A young, talented, beautiful, smart WOMAN bested him

Trump is an idiot.

He believes his own hype. Pathetic.

[malaise]

27. THIS

He is out of money, out of opportunities and, frankly, out of his fucking mind.

[MineralMan]

31. Every once in a while, I hit it with a one-liner.

Thanks.

[malaise]

41. LOL - way too humble😀

[Tadpole Raisin]

30. The only thing I'm happy he is doing is sucking all the money out of the RNC and funds earmarked

for down ballot races or local offices and workers for same.

They deserve it for what they willingly acquiesced in the name of power.

[MineralMan]

33. Yes. His taking over of the RNC was a master stroke.

I'm sure that many people running in 2024 are taking note of that and fearing for their phony baloney jobs.

[Sogo]

32. I'll feel a whole lot better if/when this week's GA Election Commission nonsense gets

thrown out (hand counting the votes).

[MineralMan]

36. We'll see. It's already unpopular, even in Georgia.

I imagine the legal briefs are in their final stages of preparation. Filings this week, no doubt.

[3auld6phart]

35. Dang

I really hope this comes to pass. Like Ks of others we are damn sick of this buffoon .Fence sitters don’t be complacent vote BLUE all the wA, even for the dog catcher

[D23MIURG23]

37. I would add one thing: division and dischord on the right.

In 2016 there was a groundswell of unified action on the right that helped Trump. You had all these different "Alt-Right" groups who were energized, pushing for Trump, and using the internet in new ways to boost him. A lot of people were excited about Trump, and there was a groundswell of activity from online right groups that helped propel him to victory.

This year we have Joe Rogan endorsing Kennedy, and being forced to walk it back. We have Nick Fuentes fuming at Trump over several different issues and threatening a "Groyper War". We have a slate of TradCons endorsing Kamala Harris because they view Trump as dangerous. Outside the MAGA faithful there are a bunch of groups that are dissatisfied, bored or suspicious of Trump.

This year WE are the unified and energized ones.

[struggle4progress]

43. Let's wait to count chickens until the day AFTER the elections

[MineralMan]

45. Balderdash! Making predictions in election years is a long tradition on DU.

Did you miss "I think" and I believe" in my post?

We shall see, of course.

[struggle4progress]

46. Over-confidence prior to close elections is a proven recipe for disaster

[MineralMan]

49. Again: "I Think" and "I believe"

I also have just one vote.

[kiri]

113. Rigging means hundreds of votes. Get on board.

According to Repubs, you can get thousands. All you have to do is install a vote-counting machine in your garage, and off you go. SCOTUS will grant you an honorary membership so you will be immune.

[paleotn]

94. I think he's optimistic, not over confident. But I get your point.

Keep working like we're behind no matter what.

[captain queeg]

48. Alright, if you don't mind me asking how old are you? I only knew one guy who used balderdash.

A guy I used to work for years ago and he was pretty old then.

[MineralMan]

51. LOL! I'm 79 years old.

I might also use "poppycock," "codswallop" or "tomfoolery." I'm dangerous that way with words.

[captain queeg]

55. I figured you were older than me - 67.

[NBachers]

77. I figure you don't go as far back as flibbertigibbet, which my Gibson Girl gramma used to describe a girlfriend of mine

[MineralMan]

79. I have used that word many, many times

to describe various scatterbrained young women I have known. I even married a flibbertigibbet once. Lasted for 17 years.

[calimary]

136. Love 'em ALL!

[OverBurn]

47. He won in 2016, all the polls said he'd lose. He has a army of brain dead cult members. We should all be at least

a little worried. I know I'm scared to death it could happen again. Doesn't matter that he'll lose the popular vote by 7+ million. A few wins in the swing states and we've got big trouble.

[Kaleva]

105. He was within the margin of error in Michigan

and possibly other battleground states by election day.

[returnee]

122. He has a legal strategy.

I think he thinks he doesn’t need the votes. It could work.

[TBF]

50. "probably a flight risk" -

my guess is that you've hit 100% with this ... he's got to be thinking about where he can go to avoid jail time.

[WinstonSmith4740]

52. I totally agree...

He is probably a flight risk,

I think he's absolutely a flight risk. I had thought that he would run in his own plane, which would barely get him to Hungary, but then someone replied that one of the Saudis would more than likely come and get him. Which makes more sense...if his own plane left our airspace and varied from it's flight plan, we'd go after it and probably shoot it down. He could sneak onto a Saudi plane...it's flight plan wouldn't have to change.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

54. Trump's odd pitch: 'Our primary focus is not to get out the vote'

With early voting in some states less than a month away, Donald Trump said, “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote.” It's worth understanding why.

Link to tweet

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-primary-focus-not-get-out-vote-election-2024-rcna167743

With this in mind, it’s curious to see Donald Trump consistently downplay the need for votes as part of his Republican candidacy. NBC News reported:

Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his strategy for the fall is less geared toward turning out supporters to vote and more focused on ensuring Democrats “don’t cheat” in the general election. “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote, it is to make sure they don’t cheat,” Trump said in remarks at a campaign event in Asheboro, North Carolina, a state Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign views as competitive this year.

“We have all the votes we’ll need,” Trump added, pointing to yard signs as proof of his popularity. As a video excerpt of his remarks made clear, the former president wasn’t kidding.

Link to tweet

I’ve studied campaigns for quite a while, and I honestly can’t think of another example in which a candidate, less than a month before voters start casting ballots in a competitive race, said out loud, “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote.”

If the message sounds familiar, it’s not your imagination. As we discussed roughly a month ago, the GOP candidate peddled the same line on Fox News in late July. “My instruction: We don’t need the votes, I have so many votes,” Trump said......

As best as I can tell, Trump isn’t literally telling Americans not to cast ballots. He’s instead suggesting that he’s so wildly popular, receiving support from voters will be effortless as Election Day nears.

The real challenge, the former president invariably adds, is dealing with cheating and electoral fraud that definitely exist in his weird imagination, despite Trump’s inability to substantiate his conspiracy theories with evidence.

In other words, every time the Republican downplays the need for votes, he’s necessarily emphasizing the need for unnecessary voter intimidation tactics and voting restrictions. Given the volume and repetition of his anti-election rhetoric — Trump asked earlier this week, “Why are we having an election?” — and his yearslong antipathy toward democracy, it’s tough not to find the comments unsettling.

I fear that there will be massive voter suppression efforts close to the election that we will to fight. TFG can not win a fair election and so plans on cheating and suppressing the vote

[ananda]

63. his real goal is to make sure that they don't vote..

under the false pretext that they cheat...
by rigging the system against them..

[SomedayKindaLove]

126. The massive voter suppression efforts

Have been happening for years now.

We should know not to take Trump at his word on anything. He is just setting the stage for another coup attempt by saying this. A few days ago he took the opposite approach and was screaming for someone named Harry to get the hell of the couch and vote for him (apparently JD isn’t the only one in the GOP with couch fucking issues? Sounds like an epidemic).

“Harry” is the voter I think Trump is courting. It’s his Hail Mary. He’s not after the 81M who voted for Biden, or even the 74 M who voted for him. Trump looks at the 80M people who didn’t vote in 2020 and hopes he can at least rally the non-voting racists into voting for him in 2024.

And when that doesn’t happen, he’ll revert again to coup mode.

[RecoveringJournalist]

56. Vigilance

While I hope you're right, I'm going to proceed like you are not. We all should proceed like that. Complacency leads to bad things. We all should act as though she's down by double digits and fight like hell.

[bucolic_frolic]

58. Trump's Ego is Trump's only consideration, and he doesn't even know it. /nt

[yardwork]

59. I hope you're right!

[MineralMan]

69. We all do.

[Metaphorical]

61. I'm inclined to agree

The transition from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris shook him badly, the first assassination attempt shook him more, and the debate results have him running scared.

I'm not of the believe that he has some nefarious plan in the works that will bypass the election. Yes, he's trying to gum up the works, but this strategy only really works if the election is within the margin of error, and he knows it. He has never WON the popular election, and only won the electoral election because he was unknown.

Ultimately, on the GOP side, he has only a very limited coalition left - his neo-Nazi MAGAts, an increasingly tenuous coalition of fundamentalists, and a very uncertain number of incels. Incels by and large do not vote. they want to see the system brought to its knees, and voting looks far too much like working with the system. They are also largely urbanites, meaning that they don't really have all that much in common with the deep red rural vote.

[BaronChocula]

62. Good points all noted with one caveat

HIs lackadaisical campaigning has me concerned he's putting all his rapist eggs in the election interference basket. I think he may make fake false claims anywhere and everywhere after he loses

Illegal immigrants were bussed by the thousands in North Carolina!
There were more dead people voting in Atlanta than live people!
They threw away thousand of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania!

I'm not certain to what extent it would work, but I think his campaign is probably putting more effort into that strategy than actual campaigning.

[4catsmom]

65. Most likely this is true

but I also wonder if he's stopped campaigning because he's been told that all of his enablers are in place to help throw electoral votes to him and not to worry about campaigning. he's made a couple of references to the effect of "I don't need your vote' and I wonder if that is why

[MineralMan]

71. I think it's very possible that he believes that.

I also think it's more likely that he is incorrect in his thinking - a common fault for him.

[ZonkerHarris]

66. That's why the GOP will try to cheat and steal the election instead.

[MineralMan]

73. Yes. However, they failed with that

while he was still the President. I doubt that his position has improved since then.

A bunch of folks are sitting in jail or prison right now over the January 6th debacle. He lost all of those court cases in 2020, too. I can't think of any reason he'll do any better in the courts this time, and I am certain there will be no assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2025. Biden will still be President, and that is now a federal special security event, which it was not in 2021.

The National guard will be standing by that day, close to the Capitol. There will not be a big gathering across the street, either. Not happening under Biden's watch.

Remember, that failed in 2021, as well. All the court cases failed. 2025 will not work out better for Trump.

[ZonkerHarris]

98. They have perfected thair plan since 2020. Election boards and state legislatures instead of fake electors this time

[MineralMan]

99. Have they? Are you sure about that?

[dpibel]

67. He's obviously counting on the Electoral College

Doesn't need the power of the president, a majority of the vote, or anything except narrow margins in several states that are still rated too close to call.

And to think that many people on this very website are not much concerned about the EC.

[DFW]

68. He still has Stalin on his side, and is a powerful ally

“Those who cast the botes decide nothing. Those wjo count the votes decide everything.”

Losing the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 allowed him to squeak into office. His handlers got the message and losing by nearly 8 million votes in 2020 only barely lost him re-election. They almost pulled it off again because they correctly gauged the level of discontent with their performance during their term, and took (only barely inadequate) crooked countermeasures.

Their own internal polling—the numbers they show their inner circle, not the ones they quote on Fox—will tell them the level of dirty and crooked measures they need to undertake to pull off a typical “surprise Republican upset.” You know, the kind they used in 2000 and 2016. They might not have enough supporters and hired goons to pull it off, but I consider it folly to assume that they won’t try, attempting to seize the government if they think they can get away with it. And plenty of them DO think that. Has anyone seen the federal arrest warrants for MTG, Gym Jordan, Josh Hawley? Does anyone think they ever will?

[Katinfl]

70. About him disappearing????

Could we possibly be so lucky? I dream of never hearing or seeing him again….ever!

[MineralMan]

74. Once he knows he will not prevail, fleeing is his best shot.

Remember - he's still indicted on several crimes. Those cases will all be resumed after the new, non-Trump administration is in power. Trump will no longer have the whine, "But I'm a candidate for President" to fall back on. There is a series of untried cases just waiting to happen. Nobody's going to pardon him. he'll lose. He loses all of those criminal and civil cases, historically.

So, flee he will. Just as soon as he knows he's not going to be President. Watch.

[MyMission]

100. And he will be caught in the act!

I also expect him to flee, and really hope they will apprehend him. He will be a fleeing felon.
Maybe someone on his secret service detail will turn him in. Otherwise there are various law enforcement agencies, federal and state, who would help catch him.

[MineralMan]

115. Maybe not.

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[COL Mustard]

72. I'm not putting anything beyond the GIC

(Grifter in Chief). He’s probably going to lose the popular vote, because after all, most people don’t like him. But he still stands a chance of winning the Electoral College, where it counts. Or if he’s able to get the election into the House, all bets are off. 😒

[MineralMan]

76. I don't think so. I think things are shifting too much already.

The polls keep changing, and in Kamala's favor. We're still not that close to Election Day. There's still lots of stuff waiting to happen out there. There will be plenty of opportunities for Trump to further screw up and lose more votes.

Of course, we will have to wait and see. We always have to wait and see.

[Native]

75. Did you read Heather Cox Richardson's latest piece on the Electoral College?

There's a reason Senator Graham went to Nebraska to get them to change the way they apportion votes.

[DownriverDem]

81. Sounds good but

what about the certification problems that will surely come after the election?

[Kablooie]

82. He could be counting on his corrupt accomplices...

In key states to disrupt things enough that the election is thrown to SCOTUS where he could be installed as president no matter what the vote count is.

[Lonestarblue]

95. Yes. He believes he will lose the votes, but his judges will hand him the election. And, unfortunately, they could.

We should not forget the interference of a highly partisan SC in 2000.

[Joinfortmill]

84. "He is out of money, out of opportunities and, frankly, out of his fucking mind." Love it!!

Venezuela, baby.

[MineralMan]

85. Could be.

[GP6971]

87. Hi !! Haven't we met before?

[MineralMan]

89. Perhaps in the library?

[GP6971]

90. Probably. They really need to get

out and enjoy life more

[MineralMan]

93. I don't know.

I've always found the library to be a wonderful place to hide when I'm confused or feeling anti-social.

[MineralMan]

162. Uh, no.

Just for folks that post here from the library after getting themselves booted yet again.

[MineralMan]

166. We shall see...

[MineralMan]

88. You do not know my "desires."

You may know my opinion, since I have laid it out in the original post, but my desires remain private.

Welcome to DU.

[kairos12]

91. The combination of the corrupt State Legislatures throwing sand into the election certification process,

the MAGA SCOTUS, and the one vote HOR system makes Trump a permanent threat.

[tishaLA]

96. One disagreement re: his lawyers

George Conway, I think it was, said on a Bulwark podcast that his team has much better --and frankly very good-- lawyers now, much better caliber than Sidney Powell, Rudy, and Jenna Ellis. And that's because the establishment lawyers who refused to help with his demented efforts to overturn the 2020 election have now decided to embrace the crazy.

I still think he'll lose, but they'll have better people arguing on his behalf.

[ailsagirl]

97. A devastating look at that monster

Thank you for that!!!

[RandySF]

101. He's letting the party and outside groups handle the door knocking,

[TRHST82]

103. I feel pretty good about where we're at.

But some posters on the Harris subreddit are obsessing over the polls and convinced she won't even get to 300 and might even lose. It's annoying ans comes close to bumming me out.

[barbtries]

104. so I mull this shit over in my mind.

he's not doing much if anything to help his chances. is it because he has some knowledge that we don't, that the SC will make him the winner no matter what happens in the election? Or is it because his decompensation and dementia are advancing so rapidly that he is only safe among his cult? He showed up for the debate looking, acting and speaking in a deranged manner.

i read somewhere a theory that the republicans' plan is to install him in the WH just long enough to Article 25 him out and install Vance, who will then implement Project 25 and turn the USA into a "christian" theocratic dystopia.

it's still scary. The SC gave absolute immunity. Women lost the right of autonomy over their own bodies. that SC still sits.

I believe Kamala will win. I am hoping for a landslide big enough to remove any reasonable doubt about who won. It won't stop TCFSF from claiming that he did win, nor will it stop his most avid cultists from believing it, but it should preserve democracy for at least the next 4 years.

At 69 I've watched history play out in ways I could never have imagined. I could imagine some shit going down but invariably, especially since TCFSF went down that escalator, it was worse than I had imagined. I guess I never believed that so many people could be so stupid, brainwashed, greedy, cynical, and power hungry that they would be willing to concede power to such a severely damaged, depraved, lawless psychopath.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

106. There's one group he's alienated that will seal the deal.

He's pissed off the Swifties. A lot -- but not all -- of them are too young to vote, but their parents are, and God forbid being the target of an angry teenager.

[Figarosmom]

107. He may not care

Because he's got it all rigged or planning an overthrow or has assurances he's not going to prison

[Keepthesoulalive]

112. With all the disaster thinking

I wonder why people bother to vote. It’s rigged ,the Supreme Court, faithless electors, and his magic mojo. The people of Virginia are showing you how motivated they are, already standing in line and it’s only the first day. We need to stop wringing our hands and have faith in the competence of the democrats and all the folks who believe in saving our country enough to volunteer go to meetings and donate cash. We can do this but it helps no one if we keep delving into future conspiracy theories and worrying over things that might be but that we can’t do anything about. Now let’s go kick some trump ass.

[Evolve Dammit]

114. Sincerely hope you are right

[PCIntern]

116. I agree wholeheartedly and have been saying this,

although not as insightfully, for weeks now.

My supposition is that when Biden dropped out, the wheels came off because the only real issue they thought they had was his age and possible infirmities which didn’t and don’t really exist, of course.

Great post.

[Skittles]

117. OR

maybe he knows the fix is in

[IzzaNuDay]

118. I take nothing for granted!!!

I guarantee the GOP operatives will work until the last possible minute to discredit VP Harris and Gov. Walz to sway votes, especially in the swing states. They were successful with diverting votes from Hillary /EC and they will repeat it again. That's why I am doing letter mailing via Vote Forward and do anything to keep people focused on the vote.

[Demsrule86]

119. I agree with you post...I think he will lose. I am nervous about the House and counting the electoral ballots.

But somehow I think it will be OK.

[Shermann]

151. A space alien visiting Earth in 2020 might think the election was actually close

Trump generated more swirl than we had during the 2000 election. Aren't all Americans fatigued by that?

[orangecrush]

132. "and, frankly, out of his fucking mind."

[Patton French]

133. I'm not doing a victory lap just yet.

The last thing we need is complacency.

[betsuni]

138. He'll lose the election as he did the last one and I don't even knows what the fuck "complacency" means.

[4lbs]

142. I'm thinking he really didn't want to "win" in 2016, and was as surprised as anyone that he

actually "beat" Hillary by a quirk of election law.

* He didn't have any transition team or infrastructure in place for 2017. He didn't even have a party planned for that night, nor anything resembling an inaugural ball.

* He tried to "rip off" Obama's inaugurations and photos as his own.

* He used his position to grab and grift as much money as he could, instead of actually doing things for the people.

* He had no real policies planned or in place. He spent most of his time trying to repeal everything Obama did, and replace it with his "own" stuff, which was pretty much Obama's plan but with his name on it, instead of the "black dude". He tried to erase Obama from history and put his own orange-stained fingerprints everywhere.

* He pretty much kneeled before known world dictators and angered most people at the G7 and G8 meetings. He fell asleep, and wouldn't read anything. He pushed forward and tried to make himself the focus of attention during video and photos of world leaders, except for those dictators that he couldn't bully around.

* His "team" was looking into making him a media personality instead, with his own media channel as their goal. It seems they were thinking making their own version of NoozeMacks / Faux.

[Martin Eden]

143. I'm still concerned about voter suppression and GOP control of swing state governments

Rethugs have been scheming since 2020 to rig the election, even if it means overturning the results in their state.

We may need overwhelming turnout in hotly contested states.

[Mr. Mustard 2023]

144. Then there's Georgia all but

certainly guaranteeing it's 16 EC votes for Trump or that Harris will not get them.

[MineralMan]

148. That story is not finished yet.

That board decision could be overturned. I have no doubt that there will be court filings in GA tomorrow. We shall see.

[DownriverDem]

145. I wish

I felt like you. Georgia will now hand count all the ballots and MAGAs are trying to change the way Nebraska counts their electoral votes. MAGAs are doing all they can to screw our right to vote.

[MineralMan]

149. Those stories are not yet finished.

[jaxexpat]

150. This election is not about Donald Trump. It's about the American electorate.

It is a survey to ascertain if people really are misinformed, gullible and predisposed to reality TeeVee and "idol" worship enough to do the unthinkable. It will inform as to just how willing the majority of American voters are to jump off a cliff into irrational, dangerous chaos for no discernable reason except, maybe, entertainment.

It is for that reason; this is the most critical election in US history. If Trump weren't the candidate and propaganda and racist bigotry were still the primary message of either major party, the question would be the same; is the country too far gone to be salvageable?

[BlueWavePsych]

155. Close but no cigar ... GOTV, GOTV, GOTV

[sellitman]

156. Hope you are right.

I'm still mighty worried.

I'd love a "I told you so" when it's all over.

[oldsoftie]

158. Certain? No. And the Harris campaign needs to keep running as the underdog.

GOTV is massively important & no one needs to think he's CERTAIN to lose. Because none of the polls show anything of the sort

[Wild blueberry]

159. Great post

Like many, my favorite line:
"He is out of money, out of opportunities and, frankly, out of his fucking mind."

Two things:
He doesn't want the job (he hates work) he just wants to stay out of prison.
He's got his escape plan. My bet is on Saudi Arabia.

Thank you, MineralMan!

[whopis01]

160. Couldn't agree more

I have been saying that Trump doesn’t see the difference between gaining more supporters as opposed to getting a small group of supporters to yell louder.

[DoBW]

164. Right on!

[LetMyPeopleVote]

167. Republicans in swing states say they see scant signs of groups door-knocking for Trump

In order to pay TFG's legal fees, Lara Trump dismantled the GOP GOTV operation and is hoping that super pacs will pick up the slack. It seems that very little GOTV efforts/door-knocking is being done

Link to tweet

https://apnews.com/article/trump-political-action-committees-voter-canvassing-musk-0c1c095a6516b7bcbc80bf94fe0fe45a

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump, raising concerns about the party’s presidential nominee relying on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations.

Trump and the Republican National Committee he controls opted to share get-out-the-vote duties in key parts of the most competitive states this year with groups such as America PAC, the organization supported by billionaire Elon Musk.

It is difficult to demonstrate that something is not happening. But with fewer than 50 days until the Nov. 5 election, dozens of Republican officials, activists and operatives in Michigan, North Carolina and other battleground states say they have rarely or never witnessed the group’s canvassers. In Arizona and Nevada, the Musk-backed political action committee replaced its door-knocking company just this past week.

“I haven’t seen anybody,” said Nate Wilkowski, field director for the Republican Party in vote-rich Oakland County, Michigan, which includes crucial Detroit suburbs. He was speaking specifically of America PAC. “Nobody’s given me a heads-up that they’re around in Oakland County areas.”

I am amused to see that TFG is relying on a DeSantis related super pac for these efforts

Campaign political director James Blair also estimates that close to 2,500 paid canvassers, with America PAC making up a significant chunk, are working in the seven states. The PAC has paid canvassing firms more than $14 million since mid-August for work on the presidential campaign, according to Federal Election Commission spending reports filed by the group.....

America PAC is run by former top aides to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ failed presidential campaign. Trump’s team also is sharing the responsibility of reaching less-frequent voters with groups that include Turning Point USA, led by conservative millennial personality Charlie Kirk, and the Faith and Freedom Coalition, headed by Christian conservative figure Ralph Reed......

Trump is not the first candidate to delegate some typical campaign-managed duties to outside groups. But the arrangement has not gone smoothly for some of the others who have tried it.

Last year, DeSantis entrusted much of the political outreach for his Republican presidential campaign to a super PAC called Never Back Down, with conflict between its board and top campaign personnel late in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses. Despite starting the campaign with roughly $100 million, DeSantis dropped out after losing the first contest in Iowa.

The reliance of third-parties for GOTV and door-knocking did not work for DeSantis or Jeb Bush. This will be fun to watch

[MineralMan]

173. Wow! Thanks for that info.

That should be a post of its own, if it isn't already.

[samnsara]

176. id feel better if the damned polls would even out with a nice clean edge for kamala

OUTSIDE of the margins of error. But I feel we are getting better at identifying and thwarting all ( most..some) of their efforts to cheat.

[underpants]

178. Went back to find this. I agree she's got a really good chance.

I saw this earlier but didn’t have time to read it.

It’s going to be close but I think ENERGY wins this. She has plenty and he’s running on fumes and, as you said, not expanding his support at all.

I’ve said for months that Trump was really the are up our sleeve. The longer this goes, the worse he looks. People who are just recently tuning back into this are shocked at what he’s become. Unless you consume RW media (especially talk radio) you have no idea what he’s talking about.