What door knocking really accomplishes

[Pototan]

Canvassing for a candidate takes a very devoted volunteer. I've done it for 50 years until I retired. The purpose is more to locate votes than to convince. Each canvasser is given a sheet with registered voters and his or her job is to gauge the level of support from each encounter. Most systems use a 1 to 5 method. 1 being a sure vote and 5 you're never going to get. 3 is undecided.

These lists go back to a phone bank to reinforce and confirm the number 1's and 2's and maybe mail out to the 3's to convince.

The ones and twos are the GOTV. They get contacted for early voting. The HQ offers rides or baby-sitting, especially for early voting. If the campaign is not door knocking to establish who or where their voters are, the GOTV doesn't work. Phone banking is another way to establish the ranking, by concentrating on a certain voter, like registered Democrats only. I did a lot of union-to-union phone banking in that demographic.

Harris' campaign is doing this on the ground in the key states. They have more volunteers than any campaign has had in decades. It rivals Obama's 2008 effort.

The Republicans have dismantled their GOTV and have outsourced it. I know from experience, outsourcing doesn't work. The canvassers are just there for the money. Their hearts aren't into it and the upper group leaders are grifting. As a result, Trump's ground game is far behind and in disarray.

I think that the polling data looks good for Kamala. If we're up 1 or 2 points in swing states like Pennsylvania, I think the ground game will add another point or two. I expect this year that the Democrats will overperform the polls, up and down the ballot.

[arlyellowdog]

1. It's everything and takes special wonderful people

[Bayard]

2. Indeed

I think it would accomplish me being shot around here.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

3. Thank you for your efforts

Door knocking is very valuable.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

4. Republicans in swing states say they see scant signs of groups door-knocking for Trump

In order to pay TFG's legal fees, Lara Trump dismantled the GOP GOTV operation and is hoping that super pacs will pick up the slack. It seems that very little GOTV efforts/door-knocking is being done

Link to tweet

https://apnews.com/article/trump-political-action-committees-voter-canvassing-musk-0c1c095a6516b7bcbc80bf94fe0fe45a

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump, raising concerns about the party’s presidential nominee relying on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations.

Trump and the Republican National Committee he controls opted to share get-out-the-vote duties in key parts of the most competitive states this year with groups such as America PAC, the organization supported by billionaire Elon Musk.

It is difficult to demonstrate that something is not happening. But with fewer than 50 days until the Nov. 5 election, dozens of Republican officials, activists and operatives in Michigan, North Carolina and other battleground states say they have rarely or never witnessed the group’s canvassers. In Arizona and Nevada, the Musk-backed political action committee replaced its door-knocking company just this past week.

“I haven’t seen anybody,” said Nate Wilkowski, field director for the Republican Party in vote-rich Oakland County, Michigan, which includes crucial Detroit suburbs. He was speaking specifically of America PAC. “Nobody’s given me a heads-up that they’re around in Oakland County areas.”

I am amused to see that TFG is relying on a DeSantis related super pac for these efforts

Campaign political director James Blair also estimates that close to 2,500 paid canvassers, with America PAC making up a significant chunk, are working in the seven states. The PAC has paid canvassing firms more than $14 million since mid-August for work on the presidential campaign, according to Federal Election Commission spending reports filed by the group.....

America PAC is run by former top aides to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ failed presidential campaign. Trump’s team also is sharing the responsibility of reaching less-frequent voters with groups that include Turning Point USA, led by conservative millennial personality Charlie Kirk, and the Faith and Freedom Coalition, headed by Christian conservative figure Ralph Reed......

Trump is not the first candidate to delegate some typical campaign-managed duties to outside groups. But the arrangement has not gone smoothly for some of the others who have tried it.

Last year, DeSantis entrusted much of the political outreach for his Republican presidential campaign to a super PAC called Never Back Down, with conflict between its board and top campaign personnel late in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses. Despite starting the campaign with roughly $100 million, DeSantis dropped out after losing the first contest in Iowa.

The reliance of third-parties for GOTV and door-knocking did not work for DeSantis or Jeb Bush. This will be fun to watch

[oasis]

5. G.O.P. in a mess of their own making.

[Coexist]

6. Yes. I've always been told we need to identify Definite Voters so we can encourage Day 1 voting

then, once those votes are banked, move on to Level 2.

The faster a campaign can get the Definite Voters to vote, the sooner they can move on to encourage those more sporadic voters they know support the ticket. The Obama campaign, per the Hopium Chronicles had such great success because so many of their 1st Tier supporters voted on Day 1, way more than they had predicted, so they were able to really focus their effort on other tiers.

It really does matter. VOTE ON DAY 1 OF EARLY VOTING IF YOU CAN PLEASE

[mucholderthandirt]

7. My middle son got a door knocker yesterday. We were talking on the phone, he's not feeling well.

The guy asked for son's ex-girlfriend, him and a recent roommate they had. Son told them none of those people lived there anymore. Ex-GF was Republican (as is son, to my great sorrow, but he's not MAGA). He was nice about it, but he's really going through some stuff and could barely talk to me, much less answer any political questions.

I'm out in the boonies, never get anyone out here. If anyone calls, unless they immediately announce who they are, they get hung up on. I warned the Democratic party here that they should never call me, or come to my house. I do get the political mailers, though. The Republicans are wasting their money, that stuff gets torn up and put in the trash, the Dem ones get recycled.