In 2016, we KNEW that Hillary was going to win

[Cyrano]

It was an absolute certainty that she was going to be our next president. Until she wasn't.

Late that Tuesday night, we couldn't grasp that, somehow, someway, Trump won.

We can't let that happen again. Whatever you're doing, don't let up.

Republicans are doing everything possible to steal it.

Keep working for a Kamala win like she's 20 points behind.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. I'll never forget this...

7 years ago - All (Vanessa Bayer, Aidy Bryant, Beck Bennett, Cecily Strong) but two friends (Dave Chappelle, Chris Rock) are surprised by Donald Trump's victory while watching the election results roll in.

[Cyrano]

4. Great clip. And a great reminder.

[kimbutgar]

10. Wow I forgot about that!

This video reminded me of a couple of years ago when I saw Dave Chapelle and Chris Rock at an indoor stadium concert and they had a surprise guest Elon Muskrat and as soon as he came on the crowd started going loudly. He had taken over twitter and fired a bunch of people. I never felt the same about Chapelle after he brought that cretin on stage.

And the night the orange turd stole the election I went to bed before they announced the winner because I was like those people in the room afraid and stunned. The next morning I turned in the tv and heard the news and my heart sank. I was substitute teaching a 3rd grade class and the kids were so upset and it was hard to keep it together and comfort the kids who were afraid their Asian and Hispanic family members would be deported. I basically couldn’t teach because kids were sobbing in class. I ended up reading stories to them to get their minds off the disaster we were going to face for the next four years.

[Aristus]

57. I went to bed that night absolutely sick to my stomach.

And I woke up in a state of shock. I could barely function. I went in to work to prepare for the day, then before clinic even started, I told my boss I had to go home. I was totally dead inside.

I went home to Mrs. Aristus, and we spent the rest of the day holding each other and trying to comfort each other, and make sense of the situation.

Four years later, I requested the entire week off for Election Day, to cushion any potential shock. I did a lot of day-drinking that Tuesday. It still took several days to get final confirmation of Joe Biden’s win. And I popped a champagne cork when I got the news.

[kimbutgar]

63. I feel for you!

I was also in shock and had to struggle to not cry and stay calm.

But the elation that Saturday when they announced President Biden won I was so joyous.

[Xavier Breath]

13. In his monologue right before that sketch, Mr. Chapelle also famously said

he'd give Trump a chance.

Stupid then, stupid now.

[0rganism]

79. I remember that dismal dreary night

I'd taken light rail into Portland for the Democratic party bash at the convention center, figuring it'd be fun to hang with a bunch of other Dems as the results came in. By the time I arrived we'd already lost PA. It was basically a funeral with an open bar. Even the statewide results couldn't put a dent in the mood. The ride home was extra gloomy, with a side order of cold November rain.

Let's not do that again. Ever.

[oldsoftie]

2. There were a few here that kept saying "Dont be so sure"

But those posts were quickly swatted down because no one wanted to hear it.

[Eliot Rosewater]

5. And there were a few of us Beside ourselves with disbelief when we heard people say

"she won't guarantee Medicare for all so I can't vote for her or I will have to hold my nose."

Some of us kept saying things like, "but the Supreme Court" but they didn't care.

Oh and BTW when you said you would have to hold your nose, how many people heard that and were on the fence about voting at all?

GET IT NOW?

[LuvLoogie]

56. I have a leftist cousin who voted for Stein. She was down on Biden, too.

I haven't asked her about Kamala. Don't know; don't care.

[Eliot Rosewater]

62. This person is an idiot, sorry...I know them, they are all idiots. I would LOVE for one to be BRAVE

enough to say something on this board, because they are here!

[oldsoftie]

68. Its like you could lose a toe or a leg & they say "Take the leg!!"

NO candidate is perfect but LOOK AT THE ALTERNATIVE

[oldsoftie]

67. And even in '20 1/3 of eligible voters STILL didnt vote!! nt

[Eliot Rosewater]

88. And believe it or not in 2022 AFTER Roe was overturned, I repeat AFTER Roe overturned

do you know how many under the age of 29 voted? You know, the people MOST affected?


https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135810302/turnout-among-young-voters-was-the-second-highest-for-a-midterm-in-past-30-years

About 27% of voters between the ages of 18-29 cast a ballot in the midterm election this year, according to an early estimate from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, also known as CIRCLE.

BARELY more than 1 out of 4. THIS is how you lose a democracy.

[progressoid]

94. While the 2022 youth vote was down slightly from 2018, it's actually been trending upward for the last decade or two.

Nationally, CIRCLE estimates that 23% of eligible young Americans cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm elections. CIRCLE’s analysis of youth voting trends and other data sources suggests that last year’s election had one of the highest youth voter turnouts in a midterm election since the voting age was lowered to 18. Youth turnout was 28% in 2018, but 2022’s turnout rate is a large improvement over 2014, when CIRCLE estimates just 13% of youth cast a ballot.

“While nationally youth turnout in 2022 did not match the historic high point in 2018, young people’s electoral engagement remains high compared to other recent midterms and reflects an upward trend in the youth vote over the past decade,”

...https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-state-youth-voter-turnout-data-and-impact-election-laws-2022

[Frank D. Lincoln]

104. I predict it'll hit 40% or higher in 2024

because of Kamala Harris being much younger than Joe Biden, Taylor Swift's influence, and young people's concern about the threat that Project 2025 poses to climate change and the environment.

In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if it hit 45%.

[oldsoftie]

112. That would be massive. Hope you're right.

[paleotn]

37. Interestingly, I remember it not like that at all. Not after Comey's surprise.

A lot of don't be so sure....I'm worried about this.... and I was one of them. I wasn't sure about anything in the few weeks prior to election day. Not after Comey stuck his damn nose into things. That man still needs to be gibbeted.

Nevertheless, the OP makes excellent points. There are no sureties in life other than death and taxes. The rest are probabilities. The probability of a Harris win looks fairly good right now. Better than Biden's chances. But....and this is a huge but....that's right now and there is a ton of work left to be done and a number of weeks left to go. Nose to the grindstone. Put your head down and do the goddamn work.

[oldsoftie]

132. And GOTV!!!!!! Thats how to win enough of those battle ground states.

If she can flip NC & take PA along with a few others its over for trump. But ALL polls show them basically tied still. But its also still "only" September. End of Oct we need to see continued separation.

[Polybius]

125. And the replies were always "thank you for your concern"

I still see that response from time to time.

[oldsoftie]

131. That DOES bring back memories!! Forgot that one. nt

[malaise]

3. Why are you skipping 2020

We knew Biden would win and he did.
Sure get the work done but Dems have done very well from 2018.

[Mister Ed]

44. 3:45 AM CST

I remember the election of 2020 quite differently. I remember Trump's lead piling up as the evening progressed. We had known it would, and that the later-counted absentee and mail-in votes favoring Democrats would continue to trickle in.

But would the trickle build to a wave sufficient to swamp the Republicans? The faith of many here on DU began to waver. There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth, and I remember one poster, in anguished resignation, declaring. "It's over. We're done for. This cake is baked. I'm going to bed."

The minutes and hours ticked by in agonizing uncertainty, and then, at 3:45 AM, a poster quietly noted that Biden had pulled ahead by a few tenths of a percentage point in Wisconsin. Another poster did a quick check and declared, "And all the Wisconsin precincts that haven't yet reported are Dem-leaning precincts!"

Another poster quickly chimed in to say, "It's the same in Michigan!" And soon another, excitedly reporting, "And Pennsylvania too!"

So I, for one, did not know that Biden would win, and I'll always remember 3:45 AM CST on November 4th, 2020 as the moment I knew at last that we were saved.

Still, it's just as you say: get the work done, but remember that Dems have done very well since 2018. We're going to win this, and we're going to win it up and down the ticket.

[malaise]

49. Love it

Rec

[Farmer-Rick]

51. Well, I was so spooked by 2016

I wasn't betting on a sure Dem win in 2020.

So in 2020, I avoided the results of the election for about 7 days, because I knew there would be lawyers and baby Trump having a tantrum even if he won.

When I tuned back in, Biden had won. I had avoided 7 days of worrying speculation. It was a great election day.

[Polybius]

126. But it was A LOT closer than anyone here expected

Including me.

[drmeow]

6. When Brexit passed

I knew Hillary was at risk.

[Danmel]

15. Same. It was a bad harbinger.

[Tumbulu]

98. That's when I knew she did not stand a chance

and I tried and tried to warn people.

I live in a red rural area, and the mood among the people that listen to hate talk radio was ecstatic.

When I went to the polling place early in the morning in early November it was packed with people who have never voted before. All voted for the monster. And they were emboldened to bully everyone ever since.

This time, the enthusiasm for the loser is not evident. I do not have a feeling that he will win. There are maybe 1/10 as many signs for him around as well.

[CrispyQ]

122. I remember DU scorching Michael Moore in July 2016 when he dared to say Clinton would lose in MI, OH, PA, & WI.

This was well before the Access Hollywood tape & James Comey tipping the scale. IIRC, Moore didn't just suggest she might lose, he predicted she would lose those states. And she did. I was never one who thought Trump never stood a chance. Even though I didn't understand it, I was worried about his appeal from the beginning. I went to bed in tears on Election Day & spent the entire next day crying.

This year feels much more like 2008 than 2016. Not everyone was thrilled with Clinton as our candidate & a bunch of Americans didn't know what a total loser-fuckup Donald J Trump is. But we need court-proof margins. He needs to get laughed out of court like he did so many times after 2020.

[RobinA]

123. I Had The Exact

experience at my polling place. I go in there and....who ARE these people??? I vote by mail now. It doesn't stop me from seeing the rapidly multiplying Trump signs, but it keeps me from voting with a bunch of people in "Lock her up" t-shirts.

[drmeow]

128. I tried to tell myself I was wrong

that maybe American's would be better than the British - obviously I was wrong! When she didn't win, I was not actually surprised.

However, unlike the British, her loss was as much because of the Electoral College given that she won the popular vote.

To paraphrase Charlotte Whitton:

For Democrats to win in the Electoral College, they have to get twice as many votes. Unfortunately, that is difficult.

[we can do it]

7. We knew something was off in 2016, and did not know Hillary would win.

Those of us working the campaign, any way.

[DoBW]

34. "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me"

I think we're wiser and stronger these days. There was much to contemplate during the pandemic.

[senseandsensibility]

8. I didn't

Maybe I was unusual, but I never felt confident that she would win. And I really really wanted her to.

[whopis01]

99. I think most of us felt that way

It was only a small group that was outright convinced she would win.

[epreic01]

9. I did not have a good feeling about Hillary

I have loved Hillary since I was a boy and wanted her to win so bad, but I had a terrible feeling.
Trump had movement behind him and no record of governing. And so many people were convinced that he’d come in and be able to get things done no one else could, bc he knew the system.
He also had the “anti establishment” vibes. He’s not bought and paid for and corrupted by donors.
Today, he seems defeated and like he’s lost his magic. He seems desperate and where is his family? The ones people actually liked, for some reason. He just feels like a loser. My friends that are sane republicans voted for Gary Johnson or left that blank. One republican friend that’s a president of a company, voted for Johnson, reluctantly for Biden, and is now all in for Kamala. Not just, she’s the lesser of two evils. He actually really likes her.
She has the momentum. She has ran a brilliant campaign. Smart, funded, disciplined.
I don’t think it will be a landslide victory. I think the barrier to that is time. If the election were in January I would feel confident in a landslide. She hasn’t had as much time to become a familiar face and to get people to connect to her personal story. But I do think if this trajectory continues I think she’ll win. But I also think it’s smart and necessary to keep people on their toes and run as an underdog. We need turnout more than anything and I think her ground game is superior.
I feel good, but am I relaxed??? No. No one should relax.

[Wednesdays]

31. "He's not bought and paid for and corrupted by donors."

That apocryphal notion didn't age well.

[stopdiggin]

11. a lot of people try to pin this on Comey

Bullsh*t! It was the F-ing American voter! Dicking around with the crucial business of democracy. And a substantial number of them - were on our side of the aisle!

I will repeat - dicking around with democracy. Remind you of any current players?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

32. Comey concedes he may have been responsible for Trump's election

Link to tweet

https://www.axios.com/2019/04/02/comey-concedes-responsible-trump-election-hillary-clinton

In a Tuesday interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour, former FBI Director James Comey conceded that his decision to announce in October 2016 that the FBI was reopening an investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server may have helped Trump win the election, but defended it as "the least terrible option."

Amanpour: "Do you ever think that you might be responsible for the election of President Trump? Does that keep you up at night?"

Comey: "Sure. And I hope someday somebody proves that we were irrelevant. ... I hope we had no impact. I hope it's proven that it was irrelevant. But all it does is increase the pain. It doesn't change how I think about the decision. My view and the view of my team was: I cannot conceal from the American people that the investigation we told them, and fought to tell them, is done, is done, is done — is not done, and the result could change."

[Aepps22]

50. Only Thing Trump Ever Did Right

Was firing this clown.

[stopdiggin]

59. I really don't care what JC has to say - (strictly one more opinion)

the emails meant exactly diddly to me - and you - and virtually anyone else that was not predisposed - to 'sticking it to' Clinton - and by extension the country as well.

I'll stick with my own opinion here - and remain quite comfortable in doing so.
Dicking with democracy!

[Silent Type]

39. Exactly. Exclude Comey, trump's lies, etc., and we still would have won except for Democrats protesting

their candidate losing in primaries. Also, the constant distortions/criticism by our own over Obama and Clinton’s attempt at Pacific and European trade deals.

[Ligyron]

114. I think a lot of voters were just sick and tired of hearing about Hillary's email BS.

Just couldn't take any more and became disgusted and either didn't vote or they voted for Trump just to put and end to it.

Thanks MSM.

[elocs]

12. Hillary was so sure that she would win that she didn't bother to make a single campaign appearance here in Wisconsin.

And overconfident Democrats followed her lead and either skipped voting or voted for a 3rd party candidate. That didn't work out well. Neither Harris or Trump have made that mistake this year.

[demmiblue]

52. The campaign pretty much dropped the ball in Michigan, too.

The Harris campaign is rocking it here.

[StevieM]

84. She spent more money in advertising and had a larger GTOV ground game in Michigan than Obama did in 2012.

She also held a couple rallies there, along with additional appearances by Tim Kaine and Bill Clinton.

The only thing that was going to change the outcome there was a change in behavior by James Comey. He dominated that election from start to finish and was a more important factor than all other factors put together.

[BrianTheEVGuy]

14. I didn't

In fact, I got a lot of bullshit for warning folks around me that she was on a trajectory to losing.

When she lost, I even got blamed for it by less rational people. “I hope you’re happy now” and all that other nonsense.

Kamala is different. Don’t be complacent but don’t assume the worst either. Hillary was a shitty campaigner. It really is different this time.

[StevieM]

130. She had some impressive campaigning moments in her career.

To this day, her comeback victory in New Hampshire in 2008 is the most impressive thing I have ever witnessed in politics.

[LiberalFighter]

16. Details are not similar

Last edited Sun Sep 22, 2024, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Comey isn't around.

There are no emails

[ProfessorGAC]

28. In Addition...

...TFG is no longer an unknown quantity to the swing voters.
And, he's no longer an "outsider". In fact he's the ultimate insider now.
I don't think we can reasonably compare '16 to '24.

[Tree Lady]

74. Also the progressives and moderates

are unified this time. Most of us Bernie folks voted for Hillary but not all did.

[RevBrotherThomas]

121. Knock on wood...

PLENTY of time for an October Surprise.

Echoing the sentiment of many here; I feel good about this, but I am in NO way relaxed about it.

[usonian]

17. Hillary had a lot of negatives (undeserved) both among the public, from the hatchet jobs all over, and among some dems.

By contrast, Kamala has far fewer, I think because the rethuglicans spent all their ammunition on Joe Biden, and are still at a loss, IMO, to change whatever strategy they had, and whatever they have is backfiring, as the doddering, insane old man reaches even further into the conspirasphere.

That said, of course, fight like hell, because every point makes the election wrecking plots harder to pull off.

And, it puts borderline legislators on notice that they are dealing with a massive force of public opinion.

[Sneederbunk]

18. Yes, Kamala travels light. Not much baggage

[Buckeyeblue]

118. That's right. By 2016 Hillary had been vilified by right wing media for 25 years

I don't think anyone could overcome that. She also had a rough primary. The e-mails didn't help.

While she was without a doubt one of the most qualified people to ever run for president, she struggled to connect with people.

[betsuni]

119. It took a lot of work to convince people that she was unpopular, unlikeable and couldn't connect with people.

Was all a lie. Democrats who knew her and her long history of actually getting things done to help people, the base, knew it was a lie. They weren't the gullible assholes who believed all the bullshit.

[Jirel]

19. Unfortunately, I knew well before.

The constant hate was working, and it was clear she was damaged… except to her true believers. I watched on election night as all my expectations proved out, no matter how I wanted to be wrong.

Yes. We MUST act like Kamala is 20 points behind. Reach out to people, wear the t-shirts, post the signs, get “uppity” around MAGAts. Get folks too beaten down to think their vote matters, to think that maybe it will - and just try voting for her (and a blue ticket) and see what comes of it. Help folks get their voter registrations straightened out. Help them get to the polls. Do everything in your power and ethical compass to give us a president who believes in democracy and the rule of law (and who happens to be a kick-ass woman of color).

[snpsmom]

20. I didn't

I live in Michigan and we took a trip up North that summer. After that I was absolutely convinced that Trump would win, and I was terrified.

[mahina]

21. This, all day long.

[BigDemVoter]

22. I live in San Francisco,

so I don’t know one single Trumper, thank god… But I try to keep donating regularly as much as I can…. It isn’t a lot, but I guess every little bit can make a difference.

[Phil1967]

45. I live across the bay in Berkeley

I live across the bay in Berkeley. Over the last 10 years I have traveled around the area and made several short trips to the San Joaquin valley . I'm happy to say I've never seen anybody wearing a maga cap in person. I hope this trend continues.

[Sympthsical]

73. There are more Trump supporters around the Bay Area than surmised

Sure, no one's going to wear a MAGA cap in Berkeley, but if you go even a smidge out of the major metropolitan area to places like Sonoma, Napa, Solano, outer Contra Costa, and Santa Clara counties, they're in evidence.

Just this morning, my partner and I were chilling in the driveway doing yard things, and our neighbor wandered by in an NRA t-shirt. He's a former marine type. Nice guy, but we kind of chuckled at the NRA shirt.

They're outnumbered for sure. Where I live in Solano is 65-35 D. But when I go to the farmer's market about a mile down the road, the Trump signs and billboards in random fields begin.

[Phil1967]

23. I heard a clip of a Hilary speech

Recently I heard a clip of a Hilary speech from 2016 right after a clip of Harris from a few days ago. Kamala's voice was pleasing and made me want to hear more, while Hilary's voice was grating to the ear, and I wanted the clip to end quickly. It wasn't Clinton's fault, it's just her natural voice. I think that was one of a number of factors that caused some people to dislike her enough for her to lose the electoral college in 2016. Charisma is often overlooked, but can play a decisive role in elections. And Kamala Harris definitely has it.

[mahina]

24. The day I read that Hillary, whom I respect deeply and knew would excell, had won the primary, I thought "oh shit,

we are going to lose."

When she won of course I switched to her campaign, volunteered, donated, helped every way I could.

They spent decades defining her to their tribe with lies. Just got started on Kamala. How they lie about our people is a whole story. We don't lie about them, we don't have to and we never would even if we did need to do so.

[caraher]

25. I remember election night too well

I expected Hilary to win, yet... I remember turning to my wife to ask if she wanted to watch the returns on TV by saying, "So... should we watch the end of American democracy?"

Just a gut feeling in the moment.

I think I first started getting worried when I saw the shattering "glass ceiling" graphics at the convention. Like it was a done deal, a coronation. Wrong message - people want to know what you will do for them, not be a spectator to history in the form of a "first."

[DownriverDem]

26. Don't forget

that comey played a big role too.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

36. I also will never forgive or forget Comey's role

Link to tweet

[paleotn]

27. After the October surprise? Oh hell no. After that, we did not KNOW Hillary was going to win.

And anyone honest with themselves did not KNOW. The odds seemed in her favor but when the email shit started up again, it was by no means a certainty. Not sure what history you lived but that was mine.

[Oopsie Daisy]

29. I know who deserves the blame.

[betsuni]

71. I agree.

[brush]

30. Comey. Remember that fu_ker and the last minute crap he pulled?

[calimary]

127. Yep. Won't EVER forget.

He HAD TO butt in at almost the last minute. Until a lot of the damage was done, and only THEN did he say “oops”.

Schmuck. He should go live in a hole for the rest of his life. He just HAD TO butt in. And only later did he admit that he was WRONG. And far too late for ANY corrections to get any penetration with enough voters.

JUST HAD TO open his big yap in the first place! At this point I’d want a fact check if he said his name was Jim Comey.

Fucker!

[JohnSJ]

33. The main factor was Comey and the MSM pushing the LIE that the email

investigation was reopened.


Some minimize that travesty

[Kaleva]

35. I thought it could go either way

By election day, the polls in Michigan showed Hillary in the lead but it was within the margin of error.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

38. I was in the Harris County Voter Protection war room

I was also a Clinton delegate to the 2016 convention. I was surprised and angry at Comey and others for this result.

[LeftInTX]

40. I think Kamala has a better chance than Hillary. She's overall a better candidate.

Trump has "incumbency"...as dumb as it sounds.
There are alot of people who are still "into him" and they aren't just Magats. They're more "hold their noses and vote for him" types. (The country ran well, there were no wars, prices were low)

Also there is inflation.

_________

I fear a permanent GOP presidency with the way the electoral college is....

[Trueblue Texan]

41. I've seen so many posts like this...

We ALL remember 2016 and the heartbreak of Hillary’s loss. But is it constructive to continue to stoke fear about that? Wouldn’t it be more constructive to reinforce how important the work that we are all doing to make sure we don’t see another 2016? Wouldn’t it help bolster the huge amount of energy and work we are doing if these frequent freak outs were accompanied with a tiny taste of encouragement and hope?

While it may be true that Republicans are doing everything they can to steal the election, let’s not forget that Democrats aren’t the only ones doing everything they can to prevent another 2016 and to protect our election from being stolen.

[Trueblue Texan]

42. Let's also not forget...

…Hillary Clinton had been the subject of right wing attacks for 30 years prior to the 2016 election, and had fended off decades of investigations. She was a perfectly qualified candidate but the 30 year head start of bashing her made her success almost impossible.

[Bitbit]

109. Heartbreaking but true.

[vercetti2021]

43. Honestly I'm really tired of seeing posts like this

It's like optimism isn't fucking allowed or anything... I'm not sure how pretending that Kamala is 20 points down is supposed to be encouraging or supposed to be fucking positive it sounds to me like it's more of just doomerism and giving up. Kamala doesn't have 30 plus years of right wing smears on her back and she is running miles ahead of Hillary's campaign did by going where she needs to go.

[cab67]

46. I described myself then as I describe myself now - guardedly optimistic.

I spent a lot of time overseas during the summer of 2016. People I encountered, from the Netherlands to Malawi, asked me if thought Trump could win. This was always asked with a tone of serious worry. I responded that I was guardedly optimistic - that HRC was clearly the superior candidate, and Trump was clearly unqualified. But I also pointed out that political dynamics in the US don't always favor the superior candidate, and that a lot could happen between mid-summer and Election Day.


My concern was driven primarily by the way the supporters of a different candidate that year sometimes refused to be reasonable. Some of this other candidate's supporters behaved like angry toddlers at the DNC. I'd never seen Democratic speakers at the DNC booed by ostensible Democrats before. And the candidate's refusal to concede when it was mathematically impossible to win, I thought, did a lot of damage. It created the sense that Democrats weren't united behind their candidate and that they'd never be able to govern if they won. I don't question this candidate's principles, some of which I really like, but there comes a time to accept reality.

(Obviously, not all of this candidate's supporters behaved that way. Maybe it was a small minority, but that minority's public appearances worried me.)

The Comey report sealed HRC's fate, but she was on shaky ground throughout the campaign. I didn't always realize how shaky it was until after the election.

This year is different. Democrats really look united. Republicans do not. And the Supreme Court has become a far stronger issue than it was back then - it's really energized a lot of voters.

There were plenty of never-trumpers among Republicans in 2016, but they were mostly pundits the average voter doesn't know about. This time around, some not-trump Republicans are people of real stature among Republican voters.

Will it make a difference? I don't know. A lot can still happen between now and Election Day. But this feels different enough from 2016 to allow me to feel guardedly optimistic.

[Puppyjive]

47. How do we know she didn't win?

The Republicans probably cheated to win. I would not be surprised. They will do whatever it takes to win, and that includes cheating at all levels.

[Farmer-Rick]

58. Yeah, much like W's wins(?)

Numbers were moved around, vote counts were weird. The Supremes got involved where they shouldn't have. Even in the 2nd election the numbers were fishy.

The first W election the right wing propaganda machine got in immediately to call us sore losers and prevent a full counting of Florida ballots. In the 2nd election the right wing propaganda machine was spitting out "mandate" before the vote counts were ever finalized.

Yeah, both of W's so-called wins were suspicious.

[bucolic_frolic]

48. i never thought HRC would win

Every time she surged in the polls she immediately fell in the polls

Trump worred me. He was spending too much time in MI and rural PA, and we weren't paying any attention to him, which said to me he's onto something

HRC was sitting on a lead, without much excitement. Trump was an unknown. Today his reputation precedes him.

Now we have a most states every county campaign.

[yourout]

55. She completely ignored Wisconsin. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see him win.

I feel much better about Harris. Trump is much more well-known now and his stench is going to be too much to overcome I think this time.

[LeftInTX]

60. I now remember Brad Parscale and his data. Trump burned a bridge!

[delisen]

85. I remember it quite differently

Many of us knew there was significant Russian interference. (Putin hated Clinton because she called him out on Russian elections).
Too many did not believe Russia was a significant threat to our elections.even though there was a lot of openly pro -Russia comments and commentary on progressive sites. Jill Stein was partying with Putin and General Flynn in Russia yet too many who were eager to vote for her and what they thought were their values.

Clinton had to introduce the term alt-right in a debate, the pro - Nazi movement was barely being covered even though it was clear that Don, Jr was involved with them.

Our FBI head, a Republican, provided a convenient false report for the final October surprise.

The difference now is that in 2016 Clinton was almost alone in understanding what we were up against. Over the next 8 years many people have been working hard behind the scenes to stop Trump and that work is now paying off.

[Blue_Roses]

116. This!!!! Thank-you!!

My daughter and I were watching the returns that night and as I watched Pennsylvania, then Michigan, then Wisconsin turn red, I looked at my daughter and said, "I think we're being hacked by Russia." It was a strong gut feeling and it turned out to be right.

They are still messing with our elections evidenced by the arrests of those Russians recently (will try to find the link)

Also, something that was obvious they meddled in 2016 was PA, MI, and WI, were won just within the correct amount so there would be no recount. I have no doubt Hillary won, but that's old news.

We have got to keep working our asses off so that never happens again.

[ms liberty]

53. Maybe some of us did, but I wasn't one of them, even though I played positivity as much as I could

I thought her best chance was against Orange Man, but I was wrong.
Very few of her strong supporters were willing to admit the odds were against her all along. When Bill Clinton ran for president, the GOP started demonizing Hillary. They also started warning people that someday she was going to run for President. There are RWNJ'S out here in the world who raised their children to know that they'd have to vote against Hillary someday. When she became Sec State, the RWNJ'S said that it was her stepping stone to the WH. It was always an uphill battle. She did win the popular vote, but it should never have been that close.

The feeling now is closer to Obama in 2008.

[live love laugh]

54. The popular vote is not enough. Hillary proved that.

[LeftInTX]

61. So did 2001

[live love laugh]

78. Yep.

[Native]

64. Yes, chef!

[sky_masterson]

65. I thought Trump would win Actually. But I agree with you.

I don't get that feeling now. Trump is going down, but still run like the orange menace is right behind you, and don't look back until you cross the line.

[Rocknation]

66. I never stopped worrying about Hillary being unable to beat Trump

Last edited Sun Oct 6, 2024, 08:54 PM - Edit history (11)

by at least four points (my definition of a "cheatproof" popular vote margin).

I stopped worrying about Obama not beating McCain when McCain picked "Klondike Barbie" Palin as his running mate.

I stopped worrying about Obama not beating Romney when Romney refused to release his income tax history (a presidential election tradition begun by his own father).

I stopped worrying about Trump beating Biden in 2020 when I realized that Biden had scored at least 270 electoral votes as of lunchtime of the day after Election Day (which Biden confirmed by posting his transition team Web site as of dinnertime of that day).

Most recently, I stopped worrying about Trump beating Biden when the public instantly rejected Project2025/Agenda47; and about Trump beating Harris when Trump self-destructed at his second debate due to Harris tricking him into not using "hot" microphones (which took away Trump's ability to deploy his trademark scattershot self-serving aggression).

I have a batting average of one thousand so far...


Rocknation

[doc03]

69. I never thought Hillary would win, the Republicans beat her with the Benghazi

hearings. She just had too much undeserved baggage. I was also sure Biden was going to lose, I couldn't watch the election returns, didn't know he had won until the next morning. So my predictions don't count for much. Living in east Ohio
where there are 25 Trump signs for every Harris sign it is hard to be very optimistic.

[B.See]

70. Precisely! It's why I emphasize

the urgency, the concern, the alarm rather than bask in overconfidence.

Back then I was elsewhere, not here, doing the same, for which some said I was being an alarmist... one even calling me "chicken little"... silly mfkr.

GOTV

[Poiuyt]

72. Alan Lichtman predicted that Trump would win in 2016

This time he says that Kamala will.

[betsuni]

75. Do people think Trump won by a landslide or something? 40,000 more votes for Hillary in Michigan, Wisconsin

and Pennsylvania would have won it for her. Biden won by more but not that much more (and he DID NOT HAVE RALLIES, why do people think rallies are the most important thing? Because you heard someone say it, that's why. Think for yourselves).

The numbers for Hillary were good until that last week after the Comey letter when voters voting on Election Day (states without early voting) swung for Trump.

The reason why many people thought she'd win is that they couldn't imagine that many people could be that dumb. He was a terrible candidate, awful campaign, showed up at his rallies and never talked to any voters (the ones who are always whining about not being listened to or cared about). After the election everybody jumped on the Blame Hillary bandwagon. Media didn't blame themselves, voters who didn't vote or were stupid enough to vote third party because Hillary was Establishment Satan. STUPID.

[JohnSJ]

76. No we didn't. It was Comey and the media lying about the email investigation being reopened that caused

what happened, and the polls reflected that, before Comey verses after Comey.

[ShazzieB]

80. I was absolutely sure that Hillary was going to win in 2016.

But when I got home Tuesday night and was able to check the election results, I knew it was all over. I'm surprised to hear that some still weren't sure.

I went to bed that night exhausted from working as an election judge all day and broken-hearted about the results. Was in an absolutely horrible mood all the next day (and maybe longer; my memories of that time are a giant, tear-stained blur).

In 2020, I was scared to death that Biden wasn't going to win and couldn't really relax until the last state was called for him. (How many days later was it? I can't remember.)

This year, I expect to be a bundle of nerves again. I think things are looking good for our side, and I am hopeful, but I'm not taking a damned thing for granted.

[regnaD kciN]

81. "Who's 'we', kimosabe?"

I was anything but certain about the general election that year. Trump kept hanging around too closely for me to feel comfortable. Plus, with all due respect, Clinton was not the greatest speaker/campaigner (nowhere near as good as Harris now) and her campaign’s leadership proved to be a clown show. The only time I felt somewhat confident was right after Pussygate, but then Comey came along, and the polls tightened in a way that made a popular/electoral vote split in TSF’s favor more likely. Granted, the polls widened a bit in the closing weekend of the race, and I thought that HRC being cleared by the FBI on the final Saturday might have been enough to put us over the top, but I still thought it very possible that we could get the result we wound up getting.

[Patton French]

82. You're forgetting one thing.

Hillary Clinton did win in 2026.

[MichMan]

87. What office is she running for in 2026?

[Patton French]

89. Huh?

NT

[da svenster]

83. i don't want to fight like we're 20 points down...

at 20 points down, i'm dispirited, depressed, and disengaged.

i want to fight like we're 2 points down.

that gives a fire in the belly. and yeah, a field goal will do it but i want that touchdown.

i'll fight a lot harder when we're 2 points down than 20.

[MichMan]

86. Only once in my lifetime has the same party won three presidential elections in a row.

It didn't happen in 2016 either.

[peggysue2]

90. Think most of us were stunned when Hillary lost. But . . .

This is NOT 2016.

Kamala Harris hasn't been dragged through the mud for decades the way Hillary Clinton was.. Dobbs was not an issue in 2016. Trump has not over-performed since the 2016 debacle (just the opposite); he's a known quantity and has a unbelievable rotten record. He under-performed even in the Republican primaries this year. He's also become far more erratic and insane.

Remember the chants: Give Trump a chance? Well, he had that chance and thoroughly blew it. A million+ Americans died of Covid, several hundred thousand of whom died due to Trump's incompetence.

I don't think any Dem is complacent; the numbers, the trend lines reflect that both the ticket and supporters are working their asses off to not only win but rack up the biggest numbers possible.

Yes, anything can happen in politics but . . .

We're in a good spot at the moment to take this home and shut down Trump, 2025 fever dreams and the Flying Monkey Brigade.

I've neither seen nor heard anyone getting cocky or pretending there's not still work to be done, right through Election Day.

But come on. This has been an incredible campaign rising up out of the ashes, blowing away the two-year propaganda campaign against Joe Biden, a man who ultimately set aside his own political aspirations for the sake of all of us.

I'm by nature a cautious optimist. However, in my heart, I believe we're going to win this thing and win it big. Doesn't mean anyone is taking his/her foot off the pedal but a moment or two of exhilaration is well-deserved.

The Dems are rocking it. We all are. We're allowed to do a happy dance, and then . . .

Get Back to Work

[czarjak]

91. Vlad won 2016.

W & Rove showed him how in 2000.

[Martin68]

92. Yup, I knew it. Found out the truth on NPR while I was driving to work. Felt sick to my stomach, and depressed for a

week Everybody I knew did. Don't worry, we will never forget.

[DonCoquixote]

93. ----this

especially as we know the media will gladly applaud it because it will make them rich, especially those so called "centre left" that know they will not have to do work.. I almost might cry when Trump finally hangs them too, but I won't.

[pansypoo53219]

95. no. i mainly observed 2016 from a distance. i saw how the media was pimping trump + hitting hillary all the time.

then she got hit by comey. then she picked kaine, tried to court the right. pushing the bernie fans away.
then i caught her speaking.
mother fucker was gonna win.
she ignored wisconsin + michigan.

[betsuni]

106. No, Obama's pick for VP was Kaine or Biden, chose Biden. What's the problem with Kaine?

No, she did NOT push Bernie fans away, the opposite: "I felt like I was in a straightjacket" -- her advisors and President Obama told her not to fight back against Bernie's attacks so as not to upset his supporters. Any examples of Hillary "pushing Bernie fans away"?

"Tried to court the Right?" -- how exactly, by not being socialist like any other Democrat?

"I caught her speaking" -- is that about her voice, what? She has a low voice. "Cackle"?

She lost by only 40,000 votes in three swing states (there was no big surge in new Republican voters in Wisconsin, about same as 2012 when Romney ran) . The rallies excuse. Biden won without any rallies -- why does anyone think a couple more rallies in Wisconsin would've mesmerized white Trump voters who were voting for anti-immigrant racial identity into voting for her?

[pansypoo53219]

133. the convention mess. she wasn't a good campaigner + she was running against a huckster. she needed a big name.

i observed in the last few days. also, her ads were all trump bad. but ads shit. it was the media drumbeat about her server + did she say over + over it was BILL'S presidential server? or that the state dept was less secure.
but it was the comey bullshit that was the worst.

the stupid media likes to be spoonfed + she starved them.

[Runningdawg]

96. No. When close friends and family, lifelong Dems, were saying they refused to vote for anyone but Sanders, it was over.

[oldmanlynn]

97. Having republican Comey come out 12 days before election

Having republican Comey come out 12 days before election Made a huge impact.

[Pototan]

100. 20 points behind?

please don't use that phrase. I know that it's common. James Carvell uses 10 points behind.

Look, Kamala will not contest Mississippi because she's 20 points behind. She will not contest Missouri because she's 15 points behind. She will not contest Ohio, because she's 10 points behind. The same goes for Vermont and Massachusetts, where she's 30 and 40 points ahead.

That 10 and 20 points behind really makes no sense. I know a lot of political operatives use it. but it bothers me. Biden was 4 or 5 points behind, nationally, after the debate and he dropped out.

If you want to make an analogy, say we should work like we're 10 or 20 votes behind. Most everyone can get another 10 or 20 votes.

But 20 points behind? I can't think of anything more demoralizing.

[videohead5]

101. But Kamala does not have a Comey problem

Hillary even said that they saw part of her support collapse after Comey re-opened the investigation into her emails 11 days before the election.

[Kablooie]

102. There is a historian that correctly predicted the past 10 presidential elections.

He got every one right, except Bush/Gore because SCOTUS basically chose Bush over the voters.
He predicted that Trump would win based on his 13 criteria,

This time he says Kamala will win and win big.

[krawhitham]

103. Maybe people who never looked at the state polls

[betsuni]

105. What were the state polls?

[BlueWavePsych]

107. Yup, GOTV , GOTV , GOTV!

[pnwmom]

108. I don't remember that "we" were sure of that. The Electoral College has always been the problem.

I had read that the EC meant that, mathematically speaking, she could win the popular vote by millions and still lose in the EC. And that's what happened.

[betsuni]

110. Lots of people's brains were like Never Trumper Republican Tim Miller's:

"But I swear, hand to God, that even at that late a date, even after Trump had won New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries and dispatched my former boss ... I still didn't truly believe that this manifest incompetent would be the Republican Party's nominee. And I sure as shit didn't think there would be any chance he could actually become president. People were really going to elect the 'Apprentice' guy? C'mon. This bigoted, barmey, bargain-basement Berlusconi could not possibly win. My brain just refused to accept the possibility."

[ScubaSteve]

111. My wife keeps reminding me we thought he wouldnt win before

and then he did. But this is different!!

We know what the shit for brains will do "if" he gets back in.

We wont go back!!!

[DonCoquixote]

113. fight until the ashes are cold

even if Trump was to get STOMPED in 50 states, there will be a faction that will fight and KILL to get trump in power.

[LiberalArkie]

115. And in 2000, we knew that Al Gore would win and defeat the "all hat, no cattle" man in the election.

[Shrek]

117. Remember all the snickering about how great it was to be running against Trump? n/t

[MorbidButterflyTat]

120. What I knew, and still know:

"Russia, if you're listening..."

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

124. Sadly, at least one of us understood

how disliked (I could use lots of stronger words here) she was (still is)by so many.

Not to mention the religious ones who will vote for whoever their husband says to vote for. There's more of them out there than people here realize.

[quakerboy]

129. did we?

There was a good chunk of us who did not, were not certain. Hopeful, certianly, but also really really concerned.

That said.. I agree with your point.

[lees1975]

134. The enthusiasm level, the rally crowds, the voter registration efforts, and where the campaign is reaching out to voters

makes this a lot different than 2016. There were a lot of things about her 2016 campaign that were kind of frustrating, including taking Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where I lived at the time, for granted. In 2012, Obama made several trips to Pennsylvania, I got to see him twice, once in Pittsburgh, and once in Erie. Hillary was nominated in Philadelphia, and held her last rally there with Obama, her husband, and I think Al Gore. That was it.

This looks a lot different. And there are signs that constituencies which did not turn out for Clinton, or Biden, at levels they did for Obama are getting up to 2012 levels, like black and hispanic voters, under 35 voters, and especially women voters.