NYT/Siena is reporting that in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona trump is ahead.

[JohnSJ]

while on a latest MSNBC national poll:

49% Harris 44% trump

The NBC poll analysis indicates a huge gender gap where Harris leads by 21 points among women, while trump leads by 12 points among men.

Among White: Harris 43%. trump 52%
Among Black: Harris 85%. trump 7%. Note before President Biden dropped out trump was in the teens among Black voters
Hispanic/Latino: Harris 54% trump 35%

Harris has a 48% positive view by voters toward her verses trump at 40%
Vance has a 32% positive view by voters while Walz has a 40% positive view.

On the issues:

Dealing with the Border: trump +21
Economy: trump +9
Serving as Commander in chief: Harris +1
Being Competent and effective: Harris +5
Having the necessary mental and physical health: Harris +20

It needs to be noted that in everyone of these issues trump has lost ground from when he was running against Biden, while Harris has significantly gained ground since she entered the race.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4893840-donald-trump-kamala-harris-sun-belt-states-poll/


Sept. 21, 2024

President: general election, North Carolina, 2024Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.
AVG.

Sept. 17-21
682 LV
The New York Times/Siena College
Harris 45% 47% Trump More Trump +2


President: general election, Georgia, 2024Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.
AVG.

Sept. 17-21
682 LV
The New York Times/Siena College
Harris 44% 47% Trump More Trump +3

President: general election, Arizona, 2024Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.
AVG.

Sept. 17-21
713 LV
The New York Times/Siena College
Harris 43% 48% Trump More Trump +5

I have to wonder if women, minorities, and young people are being under represented in these polls?

These polls also seem to underestimate abortion and women's healthcare as important issues.

Regardless, I think it is going to be an extremely unpredictable election.

That according to these polls it is as close as it is, is disgusting and outrageous.

This election is nothing less than the survival of our Democracy, and it is disgraceful that so many people seem to support this racist, sexist, and bigot.

Anyone reading the history of Germany and Italy before WWII, the parallels between what happened there, and what is happening here are downright frightening.

We need a massive turnout, and vote as early as possible and by mail if available.

I believe this VP debate will be critical.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. 538...

At this point, the NYT/Siena polls almost always tend to be outliers.

[Think. Again.]

7. Fixed it for ya...

"At this point, the NYT/Siena polls almost always tend to be out li e ars.

[JohnSJ]

18. I don't know about outliers, but their sampling results are different from other pollsters.

[Beausoleil]

2. I think young women

Are going to blow all the "likely voter" calculations out of the water.

[CrispyQ]

3. Maybe they only poll subscribers?

[Aepps22]

4. GOTV Is All That Matters

Polls whether positive or negative are good data but if we get our voters to the polls then good things will happen. Polling estimates what the electorate will look like but if the electorate looks different you get different results. The polls will say a bunch of things between now and election but we have to keep our eye on the prize and block out the noise.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Outliers gonna lie

NYT polls have been outliers all year compared to the other reputable polls.

[obamanut2012]

6. A 10 point spread is an outlier, and they greatly oversampled GOP

Even compared to their oversampling in the poll a month ago. It is so bad, they had a semi-contrite Op-Ed about this poll.

[kansasobama]

9. Do you have that op ed link?

Thanks

[CatWoman]

13. the polls are linked here

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4893840-donald-trump-kamala-harris-sun-belt-states-poll/

[jimfields33]

15. Huge margin of error.

They don’t break down party, demographic info or anything. I could have missed it. Plus it’s registered voters which most polling changes after Labor Day.

[obamanut2012]

21. And their last poll was LV, not RV

[JohnSJ]

20. I am going to add your link to the OP if you don't mind. Thanks.

[CatWoman]

42. any time

[JohnSJ]

43. +++

[bdamomma]

8. I don't have to much faith

in polls, to stop all this we have to vote in record numbers and not let this election be close.

[SomedayKindaLove]

10. My understanding is the NYT/Sienna polls

Have Trump’s underestimated voting numbers from 2016 and 2020 baked into their poll.

Have to remember just because Trump voters weren’t accurately captured in polls the first two elections, it doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen again. A lot of COVID deaths, Jan 6th, and Dobbs have happened since November 2020. And the enthusiasm behind Harris seems to suggest that it may be her polling numbers that are not accurately capturing her voters. That’s the hope anyway. Otherwise this race is sadly a dead heat.

[kansasobama]

11. I agree it would be sad

If we have to fight on to hold Nevada because GA, NC,and Arizona is not going our way, and GOP is playing games in Nebraska, that would be very bad for the country. I hope our campaign has a plan for AZ, NC, and NV as well.

Somewhat nervous about these polls.

NYT polls are assuming 20% voters have never voted in the past and they support Trump. Is that true or not? We will not know till Nov 5th. Is there enthusiasm for Trump with this group? I cannot say. Harris better ramp up on negative Trump ads in these states. Maybe, these states like dark campaign, not a positive one.

[jimfields33]

17. Hopefully no matter what, both Nebraska and Maine change

their weird electoral votes by 2028. It doesn’t do anything since one vote goes to both parties.

[Deminpenn]

22. In 2016, polls definitely missed the unlikely/infrequent/new voters

who came out in droves for Trump. But, there were fewer of them in 2020 which is why Biden was able to win. I don't think there are more of these voters in 2024 than there were in either of the two previous elections. They should be being captured in polls now because they've voted in 2016 and/or 2020 and perhaps the midterm and odd year local elections, too. There's no need to make a special adjustment for them if that's what Sienna is doing.

[Abnredleg]

26. If this is the case then their Harris +5 PA poll is good news /NT

[Persondem]

12. The MoE on a poll with 700 participants is usually around 5%

Plus I don't trust polling samples at all this year. Young people aren't really sampled and older, more conservative people are over sampled. People also tend to respond in a way that makes them appear more reasonable so they would say they are independents or undecided when really they are trumpers.

[jimfields33]

19. Really? 5 percent! I didn't know that.

These were in the 4’s which I thought was a lot. Obviously not. Yieks.

[Persondem]

35. For fuller accuracy the sample size would have to be known as it takes more

participants to properly sample a larger population. But yeah, 4-5% is common for that number of participants.

[DenaliDemocrat]

14. It's going to come down to turnout

And ground game. Donate! Volunteer! Send the Orange Menace home!

[kansasobama]

16. Suddenly they went to RV

So what happened to LV. Suspicious. Not saying it is wrong but Harris has lost edge seems to be hard to believe. So eating cats and dogs helped Trump?

[RJ_MacReady]

23. the NYT

Is no longer credible nor is Siena college polling.

[PeaceWave]

24. If there's a sale at the mall, will the Swifties turn out to vote?

[EndlessWire]

40. Swifties aren't stupid.

They will vote BEFORE hitting the malls. And, they won't be voting for Trump.

[LeftInTX]

25. Look at the averages

I know a lot on DU, don't like Real Clear Politics, but polls are polls (Supposedly RW due to some connections on their site)

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-harris


Did real clear leave relevant polls out? They would be biased if they left polls out. Otherwise, they are just posting polls. With color codes.

If someone has another site they prefer, share it. (I've seen a few, then I see criticism of those sites)
I find RCP polls fairly easy to navigate, so that's why I look at them.

Also you look at their polls from 2020 to compare.

Biden was definitely ahead in AZ in 2020 around this time.
So, I don't really see a "red bias"
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/arizona/trump-vs-biden

[Self Esteem]

29. RCP does not post every poll.

They leave a lot of polls out. I'm not sure what their standards are for including polls but they're less likely to include a poll than 538 typically.

One example:

538 includes a Wisconsin poll from MassInc that has Harris up 51-45.

RCP does not include it.

I don't know why they didn't or again what their standards are but I do find 538 has a much more comprehensive list of polls.

With that said, RCP is easier to navigate and see the latest polls so I do like using their site.

But for whatever reason, they do exclude a lot of polls.

[LeftInTX]

32. OK...I just noted in 2020, they really didn't show a "red bias".

538 is including 4 NYT polls for AZ...I don't what's up with that or if it's just a double post (Two for RV and two for LV) Don't have time to research right now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

I try not to get into the "ins and outs" of polls because I just know some have errors, so I look at the overall. I don't focus or get excited or bummed about one poll.

[blm]

27. Likely Voters does NOT usually include new registered, young voters.

Last edited Mon Sep 23, 2024, 01:09 PM - Edit history (1)

[Abnredleg]

31. Here's how Siena calculates LV

https://scri.siena.edu/about-us/likely-voter-methodology/

[kansasobama]

38. They include new voters who have not voted before

At least in NYT polls. There is a reason for this based on 2016. But Harris is more liked than Hillary. So, I am not sure.

[Takket]

28. NYT is full of shit. They are busted a while back over sampling rethugs and not disclosing it

So I wouldn’t trust anything they say.

[obamanut2012]

34. They oversampled GOP by about 4% more than the poll in August showing Harris leading

So...

[FemDemERA]

30. I don't know what to think of polls

They seem all over the place. But this line is so true:

Anyone reading the history of Germany and Italy before WWII, the parallels between what happened there, and what is happening here are downright frightening.

So I don’t know much about polls, but I know We must win! And that includes down ballot races.

[Bleacher Creature]

33. AZ did not swing TEN points in a month to Trump for no reason whatsoever

I don't normally try to unskew polls, but that is clearly an outlier.

[kansasobama]

37. Not sure

Hispanics and minorities in AZ are voting strange. Gallego is also running pretty much a local campaign. He is getting mileage from abortion rights. However, these same voters are supporting Trump. So, explain me the logic of abortion rights with a GOP President. Gallego himself is not doing a lot to boost Harris. I believe we lose AZ.

[Johonny]

36. Vote like we're behind

Still a good message up or down. Turn out is everything. Rasmussen used to have a formula that worked until it didn't. Same might be true with Siena. We shall see. Either way, turn up.

[Abstractartist]

41. We are behind

Latest NBC poll shows Trump +21 on immigration and +7 on handling the economy.

Madam VP is up with Latinos, Blacks, and Women.

Mr. 👎 is up with white men…

Many older Americans are very concerned about the economy and their SS and savings.
Immigration is a major concern in rich upper crusty places that will vote 🤮 trump.

I really want an October surprise of Madam VP and Gov Walz have a press conference concerning both economy and immigration. Just a concern and thought.

[GoodRaisin]

39. Given the other polls I've seen recently this poll showing sudden Trump gains

out of nowhere doesn’t make sense to me. He hasn’t done anything to achieve a rise in the polling over that period other than benefitting from the dumber muslim americans voting for Stein (if Trump wins because of those morons Dracula will try to deport them).

[LeftInTX]

44. It's consistebt with the other polls on 538