2016 redux

[angrychair]

Polling says TSF is gaining in places we cannot afford him to gain in like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
I don't know what hold TSF has on this country but it's undeniable.
Emerson, an A+ rated poll, has TSF now ahead 50-49 in Wisconsin. We should not be that close in fucking Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania is not looking great either. I mean fucking Fetterman was praising TSF in Pennsylvania and saying it's his state. Friends like that who needs enemies.
Plus it has become increasingly clear white people are going screw over the country again, especially white men.

Its starting to feel more and more like Hillary in 2016. I mean 538 gave Hillary an 83% chance of winning Wisconsin and we lost. That was her being way ahead in every poll. We are losing.

Why are we making the same mistakes we did in 2016?!? Feel like we are taking WI and MI for granted again and saying crazy shit like "we can win Florida and Texas" NO WE CANNOT.

We need to focus on the basics. The blue wall and Nevada is all that matters. Gov Walz should be living in Wisconsin right now. VP should be living between Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Someone needs to put a muzzle on Fetterman and back bench him immediately. Shapiro needs to get out their more.

Despite constant calls to not get complacent, we seem to be getting complacent. It's evident by all this nonsense talk about Florida and Texas. Screw that. Basics. Focus on the basics.

Most importantly, stop the hard sell with Republicans. Not only do I find it disgusting but a huge waste of resources because it's not going to move the needle a single inch.
We need to dump every damn cent into the blue wall states and Nevada and stop all this other nonsense.

[displacedvermoter]

1. Damn, no Hopium for you, huh?

[angrychair]

3. Not when we are losing

Blue wall states but sending surrogates to places we will never win like Texas or Florida.

We don't focus on the blue wall states and Nevada we will lose. That's all that matters.

[displacedvermoter]

4. Ok

I admit it, Harris-Walz and company have no idea what they are doing.

[obamanut2012]

19. We aren't losing, and campaigning is going on in all the states you keep saying it isn't

You are 100% mistaken. Please stop posting things not factual.

[angrychair]

24. If we are spending minute of time

or a single cent in a state that isn't a blue wall state or Nevada, than we are doing it wrong.
The only thing that matters is the electoral college. Any other focus means we are making the same mistakes we did in 2016.

We cannot afford to lose.

[obamanut2012]

26. You are mistaken

And, I trust the Harris campaign.

Senate and House races are important af in FL and TX, NC is winnable and KH has been pulling ahead there

You keep repeating blueallnevada and nothing else. That sin't how it works. We also 100% need GOPers to vote for her.

you are wrong

[angrychair]

35. Popular vote doesn't win elections

House and Senate doesn't matter if trump wins the election.
Trump has stated, more than once, he would be a dictator in day 1.

How many dictators were only a dictator for one day? How many dictators in history did what their legislative body said they should do?

Making sure trump loses this election is all that matters.

[obamanut2012]

51. PLease link to where I said popular vote wins an election for President

Show me.

YOU ARE WRONG, and I am done shouting into the wind.

[displacedvermoter]

23. Does it perhaps make any sense that a visit to

Florida or Texas or Ohio by Harris or Walz or a major surrogate might help Senate and other down ticket candidates? Winning the House and keeping control of the Senate are also critical tasks, and I have to believe they are on the Harris/Walz radar.

Do you not believe the reports of how much money that has been raised and how much is being spent to effectively campaign across the entire map? It seems that there will be adequate funds to blanket the states you are most concerned about, while also creatively exploring options elsewhere.

I don't believe this is arrogance or complacency, I believe it is a smart strategy being played out by a team that has made few mistakes since July.

Sorry you are so pessimistic.

I am doing postcard mailings to voters in a toss-up Congressional race in Virginia, and that helps me feel better whenever I get too worried. I am sure you are also actively engaged, hopefully you can take hope in that.

[Walleye]

2. A large majority of Republicans will not vote for Democrats under any circumstances. They think we are the great Satan

they continue to lie about how we kill babies.

[angrychair]

5. Exactly

All that matters is the blue wall states and Nevada. That is the best and most likely path to victory.

[Walleye]

7. Damn Republicans are already busy slandering Tim Walz because he went to China once

Never mind his decades of service in the army, as a teacher, and in Congress. Stupid Republicans will believe any kind of lie or slander.

[patricia92243]

6. I don't understand why they are not showing all the clips of Trump talking

about nuclear weapons. He talks about there will be wordle war III if he loses, etc. We need to fight fire with fire - especially in the must win states.

I frankly think it will make the difference in us winning or losing.

[Walleye]

9. A large percentage of Republicans think a woman could never stand up to foreign leaders. That they will not respect her.

That is such an old trope

[rso]

8. RSO

The Emerson poll is clearly an outlier, all other A-rated polls have had Harris up during September by as much as 5 points in Wisconsin. And polls in PA. and MI. have been trending toward Harris as well.

[angrychair]

11. The last Wisconsin poll

Here is a link to the 538 page for Wisconsin
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

[rso]

12. RSO

I edited my comment to reflect that Emerson is a total outlier.

[angrychair]

15. That is not true

The morning consult poll at +6 is the outlier. The other most recent polls were +1, which given how polling seem to over estimate the Democratic lean a +1 is very bad news.

Blue wall states. Nevada. That's all that matters.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. No, THAT is not true

With the exception of one poll showing a tie, the most recent WI polls range from Harris +1 to +3, plus Morning consult with Harris +6 and Emerson Trump +1.

The polling trends are clear- Harris has moved into the lead in WI, but the race is still close.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. That's the link for PA. Here's the link for WI:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/wisconsin/

Clearly shows that the Emerson poll is an outlier- it’s the only one out of the 10 most recent polls that gives Trump a lead.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. I am so very, very glad that you don't work for the Harris campaign

And that your venting on DU will not be heard by anyone of importance in the campaign.


Note: of the 10 most recent WI polls, Emerson is the only one that gives Trump a lead. That makes it an outlier, regardless of its outdated “A+” rating (538 hasn’t used letter grade ratings since Nate Silver got fired almost two years ago).

Your Doomerism does nothing to motivate or inspire.

The Harris campaign has thousands of staffers and volunteers working to GOTV in swing states, backed by millions in funding. Trump has outsourced his GOTV to Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point, which only has enough funding to focus on WI and AZ.

That’s it.

[angrychair]

13. That is the arrogance that lost 2016

This was Wisconsin in 2016 with Hillary leading ing in every poll and 538 giving them an 83% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

We lost Wisconsin.


The Emerson poll is not an outlier but in line with previous polling.

The only states that matter are the blue wall states and Nevada. If we lose any of them we lose the election.
Georgia doesn't matter.
North Carolina doesn't matter
Arizona doesn't matter

Most importantly Texas and Florida doesn't matter.

Blue wall states. Nevada. That's it.

[rso]

16. RSO

This latest Emerson poll of Wisconsin is definitely an outlier if you look at all the other polling of Wisconsin during September.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. Panic serves no one but the opposition - Arrogance is assuming YOU know better than folks running the Harris campaign

This isn’t ESPN, yelling at the TV during halftime about the coach’s strategy, but your post is about as useful.

This isn’t 2016 and Mark Penn (who ran HRC’s campaign, and now works for the Republicans) isn’t running the Harris campaign, David Plouffe and Jen O’Malley Dillon are.

I updated my original response to your OP with additional information.

You know who else is panicking like you? The Trump campaign (except for Trump, who increasingly seems resigned to his loss and couldn’t care less).

NC is eminently winnable, better chances than GA and maybe even AZ, and you want to give it up?

I repeat: I am so very, very glad you have no role or voice within the Harris campaign.

[obamanut2012]

21. Thank you

I feel like I am shouting into the wind with some posters.

[obamanut2012]

20. It isn't arrogance, it is factual

You nee dto quit doomposting stuff that isn't true. Your panicked opinion is NOT FACTUAL.

You are mistaken.

[Meadowoak]

33. The Comey announcement made a lot of people

Stay home. That won't happen again.

[obamanut2012]

43. I know three Dems in FL who stayed home after that

Thye hated Trump, but disliked HRC, and were like, she's gonna lose now, so why bother.

[Meadowoak]

60. I know about 50 in Michigan, that decided to "sit this one out"

After the Comey announcement. They would have all been Hillary voters. That won't happen again.

[obamanut2012]

18. Polling does not say that

Also, please quit doomposting, you do it quite a bit. Factual posting is 100% expected and good, OPs panicking with no real data behind it is not a good thing. No legitimate poll is saying what you state. None.

[angrychair]

29. We are polling worse in Wisconsin

Than both Biden and Hillary at this same point in 2016 and 2020.
Hillary lost Wisconsin and Biden won by less than one percent.
It's not "doomposting" it's reality. If we are not spending every second of time and every penny in the chest on blue wall states and Nevada we are not playing to the electoral college and that is the only way you become president.
I'm not going to shit rainbows just because we are up in a couple polls or let people become arrogant and/or complacent like we did in 2016.
That psychopath cannot be allowed in the WH.

2020: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin

2016:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

[displacedvermoter]

31. Just got Simon Rosenberg posting

With poll from MassIncPol for Wisconsin

Harris 53
Trump 46

Baldwin 52
Hovke 46

I consider Simon Rosenberg a more reliable person to tell me if I should be panicking than anyone on DU, so I take comfort with polling information he provides.

[obamanut2012]

42. You are wrong

My God. Stop. Everyone here is showing you why you are mistaken. You are doing nothing but trying to panic people.

[angrychair]

48. I'm not wrong

I literally gave you links to the polls in both 2016 and 2020. Harris is polling lower than both other elections.

We need to focus every damn second on winning those Blue wall states. We can win but not if we go wandering off to campaign in Texas or Florida or Kansas or whatever because we have some fantasy we can win those states.
The only thing that matters is winning the electoral college and winning the blue wall states is the only way we do that. We lose even one state we lose it all.
When TSF says he is going to be a dictator, we should believe him.
When he says that if he wins that we won't have to vote anymore, I believe him.
When TSF says he is going to mass deport millions of black and brown people by dragging them from their homes and putting them in concentration camps to await deportation, we should believe him.

[obamanut2012]

57. Yes you are wrong, and the links mean not one thing in 2024

I am REALLY done with you treating me like I'm some dumbass about Trump and is intentions, or about teh polls. I 100% obviously underatand polling and the campaigns better than you.

So, answer all you want, I am DONE.

[yardwork]

25. Fetterman has never praised Trump.

Pointing out that a lot of voters in PA like Trump is not the same as praising Trump, not by a long shot.

In fact, if you think what Fetterman said is praise, then your OP here is also "praising" Trump. Which I don't think it is.

[angrychair]

32. Very different

I'm a nobody. I don't even matter on this website.
He is a sitting US Senator praising TSF's ground game and his hold on the state. That goes a long ways to crushing enthusiasm in the state electorate. That is the difference.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fetterman-says-trump-special-kind-132545710.html

[Phoenix61]

40. I read the article twice, where does Fetterman praise

anyone’s ground game?

[angrychair]

50. He says

That trump signs are like the state flower. That is demoralizing to those supporting Harris there and could lead some to think there vote doesn't matter because of that and disengage from the election.
What a sitting senator of Pennsylvania says matters.

[Torchlight]

27. Feels much more like 2020 with a heaping side of enthusiasm to me.

Democrats look to me to be geared up and excited this go around, like someone lit a fire under our asses. That's what I see going into November, though I realize it's a different sight for every pair of eyes.

[bbrady42]

28. How are they ignoring Wisconsin

In 2016 Hillary Clinton never visited Wisconsin during the campaign. That is certainly not true of the Harris-Walz campaign.

They can walk and chew gum at the same time. Why wouldn’t you go after every possible state if you can? What’s the point of all the money we’ve raised for them if they don’t spend it going after every possible state that they can?

Campaigning in North Carolina, and Georgia, and yes, even Florida doesn’t mean they are neglecting the blue wall. Doesn’t it make more sense to use all of your resources to those states in play?

[angrychair]

30. I get the sentiment

But no. We should only focus on the blue wall and Nevada (because of the states left NV is the most likely win).
Every minute of the time we have left should be spent in the blue wall states and there should not be a single cent in the coffers by the time we hit November. If we have to put $100 million dollars in WI than do that.
House and Senate don't mean anything if Trump wins. Trump becomes a dictator in day one.
Throughout history when has a dictator listened to their legislature?

[Silent Type]

34. The big advantage this year is that our candidate doesn't have Democrats undercutting her right up to

election as in 2016.

Cut through the Comeys, trump lies, etc., and we still would have won had Democrats not protested their candidate losing in primaries. If not for that, trump would have lost.

[angrychair]

37. Hillary had huge polling leads

And lots of enthusiasm.
We have a lot of the same issues Hillary had
News media absolutely hates VP Harris
News media the personal hypeman for TSF

That's the big difference. Every single commercial on TV in Wisconsin should be a Harris commercial.

[Silent Type]

38. News media I watch/read have been pro-Harris since she was nominated, even local news in South. All 3

popular late night shows are pro-Harris. These news outlets, etc., road Biden hard after the debate. As much as I love Biden, we are infinitely better off with our current team. Before debate they were concentrating on trump's trials, hardly pro-trump.

Other than FOX and some white wing podcasts, I suggest searching under say NYT, CNN, WP, etc., and see what articles pop up. I bet majority are anti-trump or pro-Harris.

[angrychair]

44. I understand your point

The issue is that the news media has gone to such lengths to normalize his behavior and words it barely gets mentioned anymore or people just become numb to it. Any other candidate, before his political rise in 2015, that uttered anything even like what he says and it would cause them to be pushed out of the race in days.
He says disqualifying stuff on the daily and it barely gets a mention in the news media.

Comedians joking about it has actually made it worse in my opinion because it makes us be dismissive of it or even ignore it.

Trump is openly talking about going door to door and putting people in concentration camps and mass deportations of black and brown people.
That is completely insane. Yet it's barely mentioned. Not at all given the very serious reporting it deserves.
It is mind numbingly insane that we can have conversations about his "economic policies" while he is saying shit like he plans to deport millions of people by going door to door and dragging people off to concentration camps.

[Silent Type]

49. +1.trump is horrible. But I don't think a pundit needs to tell me he is a POS, when they show a clip of him being a POS.

[angrychair]

53. You aren't a normal voter

You are here on DU and none of us here are representative of the average voter.
We are all infinitely more informed than the average voter.
For us a lot of his insanity is common knowledge but the average voter actually knows very little and even worse most don't even care.
The average voter knows more about housewives of Atlanta (whatever it's called) than they do in the country.
I personally know people that could name each character on that "reality show" and their entire back story to their childhood but could not name the US Secretary of State to save their lives.

[obamanut2012]

41. Not true -- she didn't ahve huge polling leads, there was an enthusiam factor, and Harris not HRC

Harris does not have her baggage. I wanted HRC to be President very badly, but Harris is a different thing.

You opinions are not facts, and you are not basing them in facts. You don't even want money spent in NC toflip teh state or FL and TX for teh Senate races.

[Keepthesoulalive]

36. The Harris Walz campaign

Is pouring money and resources in the states that will decide the election. They are making the republicans defend those seats and the republicans are working with fewer resources because trump is stealing everything he can get his grubby fingers on. Doom posting doesn’t help our cause but saying something positive about how hard all the democrats are working to win this makes the boots on the ground feel their efforts are worthwhile.

[angrychair]

39. I get your point

But I also know we are not polling like we did in 2016 or 2020 in many of the blue wall states.
I know we should not spend a single second in any state that isn't a blue wall state.
Nothing else matters. Nothing. The popular vote does not win elections. The EC does.
The TSF losing this election is all that matters.

[Keepthesoulalive]

47. I can't control the campaign

I can only do my small part but to constantly be upset about things we can’t change isn’t good for our health. A guy with a funny name taught me to have hope and we watched with pride as he became our president.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

54. I think the polls are closer this year

Because they are trying to correct their mistakes from 2016 and 2020, I believe this year they are overcompensating for Trump's support to prevent a repeat of those outcomes.

[EndlessWire]

55. Humans being human.

I don't think that putting your head in the sand and pretending that all is rosy is the answer. All the positivity in the world won't change circumstances. OP is entitled to feel however he/she feels.

I remember 2016 when we all expected Hillary to win, and she did not. Trump was fresh then, a novelty, and not as crazy as he sounds today. I cried when she did not win. I remember scientists saying that they sent their work to Canada when Trump won. Trump set to work immediately, giving his buddies tax cuts they didn't need, dismantling environmental legislation, and all the other stuff he did. He was bad for the country, Captain Chaos, with his avid foreign policies, admiration for dictators, and constant derogatory crap he thrives in.

Every other day he exercised his power over the country, firing people and hiring those even less qualified than the previous ones. It was hard to keep up. When we finally elected a sane, moral man, Joe Biden, he was like a breathe of fresh air. He is smart, calm in the face of tough decisions, and the only thing that sidelined him was ageism. At least he is still available to us, on his own terms.

I don't know why anyone would vote for Trump. My own brother, RIP, once said to me that he would not vote for a female as President. He later tempered that, when he saw how upset that made me, but he was the smartest man I have ever known, and I think he took the time to analyze his bias, and retracted it.

Personally, I would not vote at all, if it meant having to vote for the likes of Trump. Trump has peculiarly announced just about every repulsive social policy that he can think of, on par with shooting someone on 5th Avenue. We have another candidate, VP Harris, with a good VP candidate, who can be a strong and courageous leader, who more than fits the role of President. Yet, are we gonna be able to elect her? Hillary was more than qualified, but people voted for the shiny object.

Polls are not reliable, either way. The main thing is to GOTV, one foot after the other, and see what happens. It won't be over on November 5th. Trump says that if he doesn't win, he will not run again in 2028. Well, duh! He'll probably still be fighting his incarceration. And, part of that, like his whole fake campaign, is causing us distress. The pain he has promised us should he be reelected in 2024 is evil.

Those out there working for Harris shouldn't feel discouraged by someone expressing discomfort and doubt. We are ALL considering what to do if the Orange Hellbeast gets reelected. We are all on a list somewhere. And we have to be prepared for the disappointment of what to us would be a failed election. We just do not yet know. OP wasn't suggesting to give up. OP is not the enemy. OP is trying to find traction on the muddy grounds of the possibility of losing our Democracy.

[Keepthesoulalive]

56. There is a huge difference in the campaigns

I was not surprised when Hillary lost , horrified, despondent because I knew what was coming. The national enquirer, Jill stein, the Bernie bros, and the New York Times all helped asshole win . We are wiser now and we have 2 people running who have stamina and charisma. We are getting out the vote but doom and gloom does not help , it is no more reality than we will win 50 states. Nothing will prepare us for a loss or will ease our pain. We have to keep fighting but disaster thinking and fear can add to folk’s anxiety .

[Strelnikov_]

58. And Comey provided enough of a tailwind

to push him over the line.

[Keepthesoulalive]

59. Correct

[Hassin Bin Sober]

45. The Harris campaign is not the 2016 campaign. Kamala Harris is working her ass off and visiting the needed states.

Kamala Harris made a phenomenal VP choice. They are working their asses off and not measuring the Oval Office for drapes.

[Quiet Em]

46. I'm not going to live in fear over what happened in 2016 anymore.

It was devastating. A punch in the gut. But it was an anomaly. It never should have happened. Good people far outweigh the very loud, but still in the minority, cult of Trump.

[bullimiami]

52. Ignore the polls. Most are wrong. Most we're wrong in 2016 and 2020.

Haven’t gotten better.

Just get out and vote. Do your part.
The only real poll is voting day.